Jason Ross

Mr. Shaw has certainly been fun post-ASB.

I said I didn't think he'd play much. And up until yesterday, he hadn't and had a single hit in his PA's. He's had a really good day today! He got super lucky in his first PA this game; he struck out based on Statcast, then had 65.7mph ball in play land for a hit. So let's be fair to everyone here that part of that mild boost was luck. But let's not take away game 1! He was really good! But the reason he's playing is because the Cubs decided to sit Tucker more than should have been expected, too. That said, I'm always happy to be wrong when the Cubs are getting the benefit of the doubt. I will also point out this; no one has been a bigger Owen Caissie fan. While it was on another website at the time, I advocated for the Cubs to draft him in the 2nd round before the draft and was bummed out when the Padres took him. So I'll pat myself on the back here; I was in on the Owen Caissie experience when he was in Canadian HS. But most importantly, let's not move the goal posts. The discussion was Turner vs Caissie there. Turner was the better bet even if it didn't work out.

They never over think the numbers too much. Numbers are unbiased. But a good reminder that in baseball, even the "right" choice at the plate ends up being an out 50-60% of the time.

100%. Big start from him.

The analytics only get "a bit much" when people don't get the results they want. The analytics are more right far more often than vibes.

Hindsight is perfect. For all we know in the alterative universe Caissie just struck out and we're all wondering why we let a LHH rookie hit with 2 runners in scoring position against a LHP who has struck out nearly one out of every third lefty he's faced this year.

The Cubs offense has been brutal for a month. We had two runners in scoring position and Owen Caissie's spot is only likely to get one more PA. You take the guy with a 122 wRC+ against LHP on the season there instead of hoping that Caissie's spot comes up in an even bigger space later. Two runs puts the game at 5-1.

Only 9 1b have hit LHP better than Turner on the year.

To be fair, Turner's bat speed is up 5mph since April, his launch angle is way better, and his 122 wRC+ against LHP is top-10 for 1b. It's fun to see Caissie right now, but Turner was the right choice.

So that Caissie guy looks legit (I should have had a little more faith in his initial call after being such a Caissie stan for years)

The issue with Tucker is far less the bat speed but the LA.

Yes it's slightly down. However, it doesn't seem like it's necessarily out of the norm? He was around the same bat speed come the end of last year, too in July. August it's around 1mph lower than even that which is his slowest speed. The graphs make it seem like a sharp decline, but I'm not sure it's as sharp as it seems.

This is much the way the Colorado Rockies are run. They are run on vibes and emotional attachments to players. They are the least analytical of any organization. We can see this very clearly in how they are poorly developing their former top-10 prospect in Chase Dollander. Dollander has been terrible, and I know your initial reaction is going to be "Well it's Coors". No, it's because they've messed with his pitch mix to a degree that it runs on negligence and ignorant of advanced metrics and pitches. He's throwing sinkers to LHH (a big no-no for RHP). He has relied on a loopy breaking ball too often instead of adding velocity. This is basic pitch design in modern 2025 baseball. You want an emotional attachment to players? Heading into the deadline in 2022, the Rockies, a team with no shot at the playoffs, had a 37 year old closer in Daniel Bard having a career year. He was a free agent at years end. Easiest sell decision of all time. Did they trade him? Nope! The Rockies resigned him to a two year contract. The Rockies finished with 68 wins this season. Go figure that didn't work out. Bard was bad and ended up retiring, and haven't even sniffed the playoffs since. "Maybe that's a one year thing" you say! Well, how about Jon Gray? The Rockies in 2021 (yes, just the year prior to Bard) enter the deadline a bad team and with Jon Gray on his last year of his contract. Gray is having a good year, he'll be in demand. The Rockies should trade Gray, get something for him. Nope, the Rockies pass, instead they keep him. "Well, they'll just offer him a QO, he won't accept and they'll get a draft pick". Rockies declined offering a QO, and they got nothing. Zip. Zilch. They got nothing. They finished with 74 wins. They learned nothing from this as they absolutely boned the Bard decision the following year. You may correctly point out that the Rockies are under new management currently, but remember, this is the same management running Dollander into the ground, and the guy they hired was the assistant GM under the previous one. There has been no analytical shift and the Rockies remain one of the worst orgs in sports. At one point they had spent half a billion in FA and got negative fWAR out of players like Geradlo Perra and other overspends. I for one would rather not run on vibes and emotions. None of this is to suggest Hoyers approach is perfect, I think the Cubs bungled the deadline in many ways, for example. However, the conclusion should not be "less analytics". The last few weeks have been a bummer, but the Cubs currently have a 96.9% chance to make the playoffs. Sounds a lot better than the Rockies' vibes and their 0.0% at making the post-season, no?

Doesn't sound like a full shut down. Zumach has mentioned that the Cubs were using load management and trade smokescreen to deflate his innings. I bet we'll see him for a bit, and that it sounds like there is some behind the scenes stuff happening. But yeah, not an MLB option right now.

Hey! Cole Mathis is alive.

I think what Kyle Stowars is doing in Miami this year feels like a really good outcome for Owen Caissie. He is sitting at a 147 wRC+, and has been worth 3.8 fWAR. He has probably added more offensive base running value than I expect Caissie to add, but has done most of his damage against RHP. I think expecting that outcome feels rich, and I think we should expect less than that, but it also feels possible.

I think this is faulty logic. We like to believe that placing a random player into the lineup will suddenly "spark plug" the offense, but it's a poor gamble. Who's more likely to hit well tonight? Kyle Tucker, one of the best hitters in baseball over the course of half a decade? Ian Happ, the 12th best OF'er in baseball since 2022? Seiya Suzuki, who's posted a career 128 wRC+? Pete Crow-Armstrong, who's been one of the best players all season in baseball? Or the rookie who's never taken a single PA in his MLB career? We get so caught up in slumps that we forget that even when a player isn't going so well, that many times it suggests that the slump is closer to ending than continuing. None of these players are broken forever, and any night is a chance for them to just get to normal. They have had off days, so they don't "need" a break (insert a struggling hitter and they had a day off last week and Monday off as a team). It's pretty clear who the answer is. While I understand that Owen Caissie represents a grab bag of possibilities right now, especially in his initial run as an MLB hitter, that grab bag is disproportionally filled with poor outcomes. Only after learning the league can we expect that to change. So, sure, there is a possibility that Owen Caissie defies the odds and hits well, better than players with significant track record, but it's a very low possibility. I defended giving Matt Shaw plenty of time, but that was as the season was young and there was time for that learning to happen. Owen Caissie doesn't have the same luxury in mid-August. We too often see only the potential good in the unknown and ignore all of the bad. It's why the backup quarterback is everyone's favorite player on a team...that is...until he takes a few snaps and we all remember why he was the backup to begin with. Owen Caissie is a good prospect. I've been high on him for a while, and higher than most. Given a few hundred PA's, I think Caissie can be a very good MLB player. Right now, the likelihood that he is better than any of the Cubs OF'ers is very slim.

He probably offers more off the bench, but I would expect to see him very little. Maybe one start a week if theyre against a lot of RHH. But he wont factor in any game with a LHP on the mound outside of a PH late and won't be valuable as a defensive asset or on the bases so even when he does start, he may only play through the 6th or 7th inning. This is probably as much about on-boarding him as a MLB player than it is anything else.

Really cool to see Caissie called up. I was expecting a roster space hold-type and am always happy to be wrong but Caissie gives the team some thump off the bench. Add in the Canada connection for his first MLB game? Has to be extra special. I wouldnt expect to see him often, and he wont supplant Ian Happ as much as a few people want him to. But hopefully he will have a few cool moments in the last few weeks of the season.

While we likely don't see much of Amaya the rest of 2025, I am so glad its a sprain. Sprains can be healed with time. A massive break and it could have altered his career. Sigh of relief. Even if they find a small fracture, this is truly a best case scenario.

Ian Happ has been one of the better hitting OFers in baseball since 2022 and all of his batted ball data is fine. I havent checked in for a few days, but he had a 134 wRC+ since the ASB just a few days ago. His slump is mostly perceived by fans and less so by data. I think the chances the Cubs would sit Happ, a consistent hitter with underlying data that is at his career norm or better since June 1st for an unproven rookie in a playoff chase is about slim to none. While "never say never" I feel pretty confident that it's very, very, very unlikely. Caissie is only starting in 2025 with an injury.

I think he will get votes. Drake Balwdin is probably running away with it. There will be no pick however. Horton would have had to have been on the active roster Opening Day (or within two weeks). It will just be for Horton's sake, the Cubs would gain nothing.

He won't get a chance to get hot. He won't play. That's the thing. Against a RHH is the only spot to start Caissie or Ballesteros. Castro will give any of the LHH a day off (PCA, Tucker, Happ). Turner will spell Busch. None will realistically sit against RHP unless they play a very long stretch of RHP. The Cubs will not sit anyone of those guys for a rookie. Rookies struggle league wide. All of those hitters are proven and more than capable. They are far better bets today than a rookie. If Caissie or Mo were more versatile, or RHH, or great base runners you probably would see them. Roster wise they don't fit. They are a round peg for a square hole. Even if they do call them up, I would expect to barely see them. They will probably be seen as much as Jon Berti has been for the last two months.

I think Caissie will be up in September, if it helps.

Both were off once last week for a Willi Castro start and had Monday off as a team. They're getting breaks. Neither Caissie nor Ballesteros could realistically give PCA a day off on their own, either.