Jason Ross

Image courtesy of © Caitie McMekin/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images North Side Baseball's top-20 Chicago Cubs prospects list for the 2026 season is nearing it's conclusion. Today, we'll be focusing on our bronze medalist, Jefferson Rojas. Be sure to check out all of our previous installments in the series here: Prospects #20-16 Prospects #15-11 Prospect #10 - James Triantos Prospect #9 - Josiah Hartshorn Prospect #8 - Kane Kepley Prospect #7 - Pedro Ramirez Prospect #6 - Ethan Conrad Prospect #5 - Jonathon Long Prospect #4 - Kevin Alcantara #3 - Jefferson Rojas (Tennessee Smokies, Double-A) Jefferson Rojas feels like he has always been on the precipice of a breakout without ever truly busting through the glass ceiling, and 2025 had a similar vibe. At first, it looked like perhaps we were seeing the coming out party we had all hoped for, as Rojas was an absolute monster at High-A South Bend. Over 299 plate appearances, the Cubs' prospect slashed .278/.379/.492, which was 45% above average. This showed significant development for the 20-year-old, who somewhat struggled with an 88 wRC+ over his first 419 PA's at the same level the year prior. Things derailed when Rojas got to Tennessee however, which really limited the idea that he truly had broken through. Going homer-less in his first 172 plate appearances, Rojas looked a bit outmatched at Double-A. Much like his first go at High-A, these were productive struggles for a player who was younger than league average, but still, if you were hoping that the year was going to be all sunshine and rainbows, his first look at a higher level likely dampened that outlook. What to like: First off, Rojas has always been very young for his level of competition. Getting to High-A by age 19 and Double-A by age 20 puts him on a much quicker pace than most of his peers. Ethan Conrad, our sixth-ranked prospect, was playing at Wake Forrest at 20 years old, which is a step-below the level of competition in Double-A. Rojas has been cutting his teeth against some really quality opponents. As a player, Rojas has shown a pretty solid ability to keep his strikeouts in check while keeping his walks up. Even struggling in Tennessee last year, the shortstop didn't eclipse a 20% strikeout rate and maintained an 11.6% walk rate. Rojas has a pretty good approach at the plate that maximizes his contact ability without getting so aggressive that he still isn't getting on base. So, despite his 58 wRC+ in Double-A, he maintained an OBP nearly .100 points above his batting average. Rojas, outside of Tennessee, showed improved power last year. His 11 home runs in just under 300 PA's was a career high at any level, and his .214 ISO was double that of his last go at High-A as well. This is great news for his future; hitting the ball with authority is never a bad thing. But it's also good because it shows adaptability; yes, he struggled when he was 19 at High-A, but then he came back out and destroyed the level. If you're worried about him heading into Double-A because of his poor first look, this gives you reason to believe he'll overcome that small setback. What to work on: As much as I want to chalk up his struggles at Double-A to just the idea of productive struggles, a 58 wRC+ is never a good thing on it's own. I'm willing to consider context, but for a prospect who defensively isn't likely to stick at shortstop (which I'll explore more later), he's going to have to hit better than that in 2026. Defensively, Rojas probably won't stick long term at short. As Baseball America describes in his scouting report, Rojas has "average hands and footwork". This probably will not be enough to allow him to stick at a premium position as he begins to fill out as an adult. While this isn't an immediate disqualifier, it means that his bat will have to do more talking to ensure he can stick at a position like third base down the line. The biggest knock on Rojas might be that there isn't a standout tool in his bag. He has a good hit tool, shows the ability to hit double-digit home runs, and he's probably going to be fine at either second or third, but there isn't anything that wows you. Not every player needs a carrying tool, but it can be a concern that without one, he could just be a "jack-of-all-trades" type. It means that he can't really have one aspect dip too far away from average, but so far, this hasn't been an issue, thankfully. What's next: Jefferson Rojas will go back to Double-A and look to improve on his first go at the level. There's reason to be optimistic that last year will be of the "speed bump" variety in Tennessee. First, Rojas showed marked improvement from year one to year two at High-A and repeating that should shock no one. More importantly, however, Rojas has been killing the baseball in spring training. While I'm not in the "spring statistics are meaningful" camp myself, I do think there's reason to believe in this data; he's changed his pre-pitch set up for the better. Compare below a home run he hit this spring to the video posted above. Notice that he is less upright and that his hands have more separation from his body before he launches into his swing. This seems to have loosened him up a bit and given him extra whip through the zone. He's also made most of his hard contact against players who have sniffed MLB relevancy; for someone like Alex Bregman, that would be meaningless, but for someone who hasn't yet seen Triple-A, we can't ignore that fact. A successful year for Rojas likely sees him rocket through Double-A like he did in South Bend last year and end up in Iowa. There's little in the way of blocking him at that level on the infield, so he could continue to get reps at short even if he's unlikely to be a solution for the big-league Cubs there. I also wouldn't be surprised if the roller coaster experience continues; kill the level you repeat, struggle against the newest competition. Getting to Iowa by age 21`, regardless of his outcomes against Triple-A pitching, would put him on track to break through with the Cubs by his 22nd birthday, which is no small feat. Longer term, he probably fits comfortably as a third baseman with 15 (or so) home runs in his bat while also making a good deal of contact. While not a 1:1 comparison, former Cub Zach McKinstry's 2025 campaign feels like a good outcome for Jefferson: a 3.2 fWAR season that was built with a 112 wRC+, 12 home runs, 9% walk rate, and a 21.7% strikeout rate. What do you think of Jefferson Rojas? Are you optimistic about his mechanical changes? What do you think his upside is? Let us know in the comment section below! View full article

Yeah, I wish we could see Conrad right now, but I'm okay with them being careful. Shoulders are iffy and I'd prefer to avoid a Mathis situation here. My hope is that he's in SB once things warm up. I suspect he'll be in Myrtle to start, and I bet playing 1b/DH more than we'd like, but for his health, they'll do it. If by mid-May or so he's playing OF and in High-A I'll be happy. I do think his bat is super advanced, so he can probably be slow played and still speed through it, but i thought the same with Cole Mathis, so what do I know?

Image courtesy of Baseball America Today we continue on with breaking down the top-20 prospects (as voted on by North Side Baseball staff) by looking at our sixth-ranked prospect, Ethan Conrad. Don't forget to catch up on our previous pieces before you jump into our next installment! Prospects #20-16 Prospects #15-11 Prospect #10 - James Triantos Prospect #9 - Josiah Hartshorn Prospect #8 - Kane Kepley Prospect #7 - Pedro Ramirez No. 6: Ethan Conrad (Wake Forrest) Ethan Conrad was the Chicago Cubs' first-round pick in the 2025 Amateur Draft. Conrad, most recently at Wake Forest, transferred to the Atlantic Coast baseball power from Marist University. At Marist, the eventual top pick was stellar in his sophomore year, posting a .389/.467/.704 line while smashing nine round trippers in over 220 plate appearances. A shoulder injury would cut Conrad's junior year short, but he was on pace to destroy his previous career highs, already with seven home runs in under 80 PAs. What to like: Ethan Conrad, despite only playing a partial season last year, was looking like an absolute monster at the plate. He had improved across the board, walking more, hitting for more power, and seeing both his SLG and OBP increasing over his previous numbers at Marist. While we should expect a player to get better as he ages up, Conrad did so while taking a massive jump in competition quality. One massive green flag right off the bat? Conrad posted a 92% contact rate in-zone in 2025. A hitters' ability to make consistent contact in the zone is something that continues to translate to higher levels. At times, hitters strikeout rates can be hidden against lower-quality players even if they run low in-zone rates, but Conrad is not one of those. He's both patient and displays a plus hit tool. Add in the power ability and you have the foundations of a hitter who could be very special. Speaking of his power, Conrad posted some impressive batted ball data while at Wake Forrest in his truncated season. He posted a max exit velocity over 109mph on the year, showcasing what kind of damage the left-handed hitter does when he makes contact. Many times players who run ridiculously high contact rates sacrifice power for hits, but not Conrad. As you can see in his profile above, he was at the top of the percentile rankings across the board. Conrad does all of this with a simple and mechanically clean set-up. There's not a lot of moving parts, the leg kick isn't overly exaggerated, he creates good lift, and everything looks very smooth. Other draft prospects have things you'd need to clean up (for example, Josiah Hartshorn's left-handed swing has a few too many moving parts for my liking), but once again, not Conrad. It's very repeatable. Defensively, there's a real reason to think Conrad will end up in a premium position down the road. Baseball America calls him an "above average" runner and raves about his athleticism. It's likely that the Cubs will give him runway to play center field early in his career. Not to be too forward thinking when it comes to the Cubs' new golden goose, but even if he has to move to a corner (if, say, Pete Crow-Armstrong is still manning center) his bat will more than play there, too. What to work on: Health, health and health. Shoulder injuries aren't great, and keeping him healthy and maintained throughout the 2026 season is important. It may force the Cubs to give him some time at first base (which he has played in the past at Marist) or as a DH more often than you'd like, but you'd rather have a healthy Conrad over everything. There's a reason a hitter as good as the 21-year-old was there for the Cubs to pick at 17, and that he eventually signed under slot value. Because of his 2025 season, it's also important to note that when he eventually makes his on-field debut in 2026, he'll have essentially gone from playing at Marist University to professional full-season baseball with very little game-time in between. It's not impossible for a player to jump into the deep end like that, but it also means that Conrad may not come out of the gates ripping and roaring as he takes a pretty major step up in competition quality right away. One thing BA mentioned in their scouting report: Conrad doesn't pull the ball enough yet, and a handful of his home runs went the opposite way. That both speaks to the potential thump he possess, but also an area of polish that's needed: getting him to turn on the ball a little more often. Higher level pitching will turn opposite field home runs into fly outs if you don't get the barrel out in front. It's fixable, especially with his clean mechanics, but it is a point to watch as he grows as a hitter. Lastly, like all players with some projection left in his body, Conrad needs to make sure that he remains at a good size with conditioning and hard work. He looks like a brick house leading up to the season, so this concern is more theoretical in keeping him in center for as long as possible than a real-world concern right now, but it's something to continue to work on for the prospect as he moves forward. What's next: Ethan Conrad will debut professionally this spring in either Myrtle Beach or South Bend. Developmentally, he may be more suited to High-A South Bend, though at times the Cubs have started their college products at Myrtle Beach in April to avoid weather issues. Coming off a shoulder injury, it wouldn't be shocking to see him start in Low-A to see the warmer weather in South Carolina should afford over Northern Indiana only to make the jump as temperatures rise over a few weeks. Beyond that, it's a lot of maintaining of his health while he shows why people are so excited for him. Conrad is the type of prospect who has the same kind of "quick-mover" profile to him that former first-round picks like Cam Smith and Matt Shaw had. Seeing him rocket through the system to where he's ready to debut in Iowa by the start of 2027, and eventually making his way to Chicago later that summer, isn't off the table as a potential outcome. We shouldn't, however, expect that. If Conrad ends with a cup-of-coffee in Tennessee, he'll be well on his way and will likely have had a very successful season. It seems likely that the Cubs may lose two starting corner outfielders in free agency at the conclusion of the season, but Conrad isn't the Cubs' savior at the position for the '27 campaign, so him ending up in Double-A would be a good outcome. He doesn't need to be MLB ready by April next year and we should avoid putting that type of pressure on him as a prospect. With the Cubs likely to graduate a few prospects, coupled with Conrad's upside, there's probably a good chance he ends up the consensus top prospect in the system next year. And even if he's not quite at that level, he's got a good shot to feature on various Top 100 lists around the media. Conrad is an exciting prospect and has a lot of the hallmarks of a potential steal. Watching him develop will be among the most exciting things the Cubs' have going for themselves down on the farm over the next year. What do you think of Ethan Conrad? Did we rank him in the correct place? Are we too high? Or too low? Let us know in the comment section below! View full article

Fun lineup today

I like Triantos swing this offseason. I see a bit more loft. I see a bit different hand placement. Had some good contact. Could maybe also get some of the velo guys in there.

Yep. Trade worked out in the end for the Cubs. They traded Darvish, ended up with 4 lottery tickets and one of them turned into three years of Edward Cabrera. That's probably the best possible outcome for a group of four teenagers you could ask for,

Nope. Ramirez wasn't in that trade. Reggie Preciado is our last standing prospect from that trade. Sadly he is 22 and posted a 72 wRC+ in South Bend.

They only tried it in the MLB-affiliated (none of the players are signed to an MLB contract, however, the MLB does own the league) independent league. It lasted part of one season in 2019. MLB uses that league as a testing ground for new rules.

Absolutely. Just wanted to clarify that I think we can always assume with a prep hitter development will be important, but that we probably don't needed any added trust or anything here. It'd be one thing if the Cubs went off board, picked someone ranked by most pubs in the late 150-200 range and gave him early second round money. Then I'd think that's probably something we'd all need to do more than normal.

Hartshorn was ranked #76 on MLB.com's pre-draft list. It isn't like the team went off the board; he got early 2nd round money and was ranked in an area he could have been realistically picked in the early 2nd round, signed for slot, and no one would have batted an eye. With any player you're trusting in development, but Hartshorn is already a strong bat to ball and power hitter for his age, has a man's body at 18/19 and was ranked according to his bonus, so I don't think any added trust needs to be placed, either, if we're being fair to all parties here.

This is where I'm at. If we aren't going to have an automated system, and calls right now are sitting at 50/50 or so, you'd expect there to be a lot of them. How many times do we see a pitcher or a catcher, per game, throw eyes or shrug off a call like they knew better only to sign on to Savant and see they were wrong? A bunch! Same for a hitter. We can debate whether the number of wrong ones should be 2 or 3 or 4 or whatever, but as long as we're not going full automated, we should assume that players will abuse them if they're unlimited which would be a bad look for all involved.

Cubs breakout roster is out. Brandon Birdsell is on the roster, which I found interesting. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/mlb-spring-breakout-2026-how-to-watch-schedule-roster-analysis-for-every-team/

Same here. Conrad is someone I keep getting higher and higher on. His batted ball data is very close to Cam Smith's in the ACC. Should be noted, Smith ran his batted ball data all year and Conrad missed most of the year with an injury so we didn't get the same volume of it, but I also like Conrad's swing much more than Smith's. coming out of college. I wouldn't be surprised to see Conrad in Iowa before May next year. That's not really a prediction; he hasn't taken a single professional PA and we thought Mathis would move fast, too. But it feels like a trajectory that isn't insane, either.

Oh yeah I was mostly saying: I don't see any reason to think he'll be in LF. LF is for the "guy I'm not sure who has the arm for RF" types, which Conrad isn't. He might end up at 1b or DH, but I think RF is definitely on the table and LF feels like a pretty weird spot for his arm if he's capable of handling right.

I ranked him higher than Triantos when we voted, and I had him higher than 9th on my personal list, but it's mostly upside based even if he hasn't seen the field. I just really like the bat here. You don't find many power-hit combos like this from prep bats, and I'm pretty excited. Triantos isn't my dude, so that's also part of it. But I don't find issue with the idea that you'd have James above him, either.

He has a plus arm so going to LF probably isn't on the table. Not to say he can't, but he has the arm to play RF. If you're worried about his athleticism, RF and LF are pretty interchangeable there, with the main difference usually being an arm strength thing. The only thing that would push him to LF would be someone blocking him in RF, if that makes sense.

Image courtesy of © Matt Kartozian-Imagn Images We continue our look at the Chicago Cubs' top 20 prospects today, with our ninth-ranked prospect, outfielder Josiah Hartshorn. For a quick refresher, make sure you check out our other articles in the series: Prospects #20-16 Prospects #15-11 Prospect #10 - James Triantos #9 - Josiah Hartshorn (Orange Lutheran High School) Josiah Hartshorn was the Cubs' sixth-round pick in the 2025 draft. The team gave him a pretty massive $2-million bonus, buying him out of a commitment to Texas A&M. Hartshorn had an interesting senior year, as the switch-hitter faced both right and left elbow issues that forced him, in turns, to hit only right- or left-handed. Despite those setbacks, he was ranked within the top 100 draft prospects by MLB.com, and none of the injuries were bad enough to scare the Cubs away from the selection. What to like: Hartshorn displays both a good hit and power tool. For someone his age, it's usually one or the other, but with the Cubs' sixth-rounder, it's both. Hitting .364 over his 29 games, the outfielder added five home runs while walking six more times than he struck out. Clearly he made a lot of contact, and the approach is somewhat advanced for his age. While the five home runs may not wow you on their own, it's a good reminder that he dealt with a handful of injuries to his back and his elbow over his time, and spent a decent amount of it banged-up. Where the power was truly on display was during the 2024 High School All-Star Home Run Derby, when he finished tied for the win with eventual 19th-round selection Jacob Parker. Don't let his draft round fool you, though, Parker didn't sign a contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks, and decided to go to Mississippi State instead. Parker was ranked the ninth-best incoming freshman in baseball, so his draft round was due to signability issues, not talent. That night in 2024, Hartshorn went toe-to-toe with him, forcing Parker to hit a buzzer-beater to share the title. The Home Run Derby isn't our best data point, but it does highlight the pure power potential. He absolutely thumped some of those pitches, and if this can translate from "derby power" to "game power," the organization could have something very fun on their hands. Defensively, there's enough athleticism and arm strength to believe he could become an average or slightly above-average right fielder. He may see some time in center field initially because he moves pretty well for his size, but he's probably destined for the corners. His defense will never be the calling card, but an average right fielder with the type of light-tower power he's shown is a player you can really get excited about. What to work on: Because he's already 6-foot-2 and 205 pounds, there might not be a lot of projection in Hartshorn moving forward. While it's not impossible he could grow an inch or two more, as of now, he's kind of maxed out his body. That's not inherently a bad thing—with many kids this age, you're hoping they grow into that body—but it also means that he must maintain it. If he doesn't work hard, what could be a slightly plus defensive right fielder can turn into a first baseman or a DH very quickly. It also means there's less to dream on, but with his current pop, that's easily forgiven. Another thing; the bumps and bruises he's suffered shouldn't be entirely ignored. With back and elbow issues on the injury ledger already, it's important that the team do everything to ensure that those do not become chronic, nagging and recurring. It could mean a little extra load management, or a different workout regimen, or teaching Hartshorn simply that it's okay to take a game off through an ailment. And while it's less "something to work on" and more "just the truth of the matter," Hartshorn is a prep player; he's very far away. There's a lot of potential here, but the only at-bats he's taken in pro games have come this spring, and it's only been a few at the back end of Cactus League contests. Patience is key. We may find that he struggles against a certain type of pitch more than others, or that mechanically, he needs to change some things (such as his big leg kick he flashes from time to time). What's next: While many prep hitters need time in the Complex to work on adding bulk and size, Hartshorn is mostly filled out and should probably see Myrtle Beach pretty early in the year. Baseball America did note that his left-handed swing is a bit more raw, so the team may want to keep him in Arizona for a little bit of time just to work through refinement, but it's pretty likely he'll see a good chunk of time in Low-A. The hope is that over the next few years, with a patient mindset, the Cubs can turn Hartshorn into an exciting, power-hitting corner outfielder from both sides of the plate. The athleticism is there today, and the arm strength should be a plus. If things go well, he could be MLB-ready in three years, putting him on track to make a debut by age 22. But not all things go the way you want to, and it could take time for the Cubs' big investment to pay off. With a history of injury and his youth, it may take longer. On the other hand, it does feel notable that he's been in three Cactus League games, including playing a few innings of the team's visit to the Brewers Wednesday. For a teenager who wasn't a top pick to play big-league games the following spring speaks to the organization's faith in his polish. On Wednesday, he hit the only pitch he saw hard in the air, flying out to deep right field on a cutter from Brewers lefty Shane Drohan—who's eight years his senior and on the cusp of the majors. Regardless, worrying about his MLB timeline right now feels like putting the cart before the horse. A successful 2026 will see Hartshorn spend his time in Myrtle Beach. Luckily for the Cubs' newest addition, the Cubs have moved the fences in at Myrtle Beach this season by 10 feet, which should make hitting in the Low-A affiliate of the team a bit easier. Here's hoping he can take advantage of the new, shorter porches. What do you think of the Cub's big-bonus signing of 2025? Do you think he will stick at RF? Sound off in the comments below and start a discussion! View full article

Dylan Carlson becoming a good MLB player would be big for the Cubs. And could give the Cubs another, slightly cheaper resign option over their other 30+ year old OF'ers which they then could reinvest elsewhere. We're well early for that talk, but something I've considered deep in the recesses of my brain.

New mechanics. I really like them.

Yeah I'm really hoping that a good bench bat with utility is his home. But not one of these "gets 100-150 pity PA's" type, but maybe more like the 250-300 PA type where they're really a "first off the bench" type