Jason Ross

Image courtesy of Dale Zanine-Imagn Images On Sunday night, the Chicago Cubs acquired right-handed pitcher Kevin Gausman from the Toronto Blue Jays for minor leaguers Ty Southisene and Brett Bateman. Gasuman, 35, has reinvented himself in the second half of his career, turning into one of the better and more durable starting pitchers in baseball over the last six years. To be precise, since 2021, only two pitchers (Zack Wheeler and Logan Webb) have accrued more fWAR than Gausman. So, what are the Cubs getting in the right-handed pitcher? On the surface, Gausman will remind you of another Cubs starting pitcher: Shota Imanaga. He's a heavy fastball-splitter pitcher, throwing those two offerings nearly 90% of the time. He's a bit more fastball-heavy against righties and a little more splitter-heavy against lefties, but he's mostly a two-pitch guy. The other 10% of his mix is a slider. As is true of Imanaga, that approach leads to lots of fly balls against Gausman. Much like Imanaga, he does a pretty good job in both the chase and the whiff departments. Even in his mid-30s, Gausman has a chase rate in the 86th percentile, while he keeps his whiff rate in the 63rd percentile. This results in an above-average strikeout rate and a lower-than-average walk rate. While Gausman is not a Stuff+ merchant (he sits just under 100 on the Stuff+ scale according to FanGraphs), he uses his offerings well and continues to force hitters to swing at pitches out of the zone. WnhxTkRfWGw0TUFRPT1fQXdKVVhWRlNYbGNBWGdNSFhnQUhWQTVYQUFCV0JsUUFVd1pRVWxjRFVnZFVCUXRW.mp4 One place he differs from Imanaga is that despite a high fly-ball approach, he's someone who keeps the ball in the park relatively well. His 9.7 HR/FB% is below the league average. He will give up home runs, simply because he lets the ball get into the jet stream so often, but he isn't plagued by the home run. For a player with such good control, though, his numbers this year have been pedestrian—most notably, his 4.38 ERA. That isn't going to scream out "rotation savior" on first glance, but I believe this number is a mirage based on unsustainable left-on-base numbers (his 67.4% LOB% is low), some bad luck, and a merely "decent" defensive work behind him (the Jays are ranked 13th in DRS and 15th in OAA). Putting any pitcher in front of the Cubs' elite defense will make them look better (as David Peterson reminds us); Gausman should benefit from this. That's why I believe in his expected stats more than his actual ones. Those underlying numbers paint a much rosier picture. Despite that 4.38, his expected ERA is 3.95, his FIP is 3.52 and his xFIP is 3.82. The xFIP and FIP both rank first on the Cubs, to put it in perspective. While these fall short of "ace" status, Gausman's 2.6 fWAR on the season puts him on level with Joe Ryan, Nolan McClean and Gavin Williams; he's in good company. It's all painting a picture of a pitcher you can easily see improving on his raw numbers with a better defense and a little better luck. He's a pitcher you can really count on when he's on the mound. Another thing that Gausman comes with is playoff experience. Last year, the Blue Jays were (famously) just one out away from capturing a World Series over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Gausman wasn't in line to be a World Series MVP, he managed to strike out 26 hitters over 30 innings, kept his ERA under 3.00 and had a few strong outings against the Dodgers, too. You can pencil him into a playoff start with ease against any team. All in all, the Cubs are getting an experienced starting pitcher who should play well in front of the their excellent defense. Gausman adds a little extra whiff, a lot of chase and quality for a Cubs' team screaming out for innings in the rotation. He isn't so good that you end up pinning all your hopes and dreams on him, and the return for Toronto doesn't stop the Cubs from doing anything else, so there's a good chance he's the second-best player the team adds before the 5 PM CT trade deadline on Monday. It also allows the Cubs to be a little more patient in the leadup. By having one bird in the hand, the Cubs have completed some of their buying now and can continue to add more Monday without the immense pressure they could be facing. Gausman is a great first step in rebuilding the pitching staff, and it's unlikely he will be the only addition. View full article

I think the industry falls victim of this for a few reasons. One, I think the Dodgers are an excellent organization top-to-bottom. We forget with their spending patterns that Andrew Friedman runs the Dodgers. Andrew Friedman, the guy who made the Rays "the Rays" Friedman is arguably the best in the business. What happens is the excellence begets excellence. So we expect excellence. Another reason, especially with hitters, is that their systems are in favorable hitting environments. They tend to boost EV and power, especially. So when you're already thinking "the Dodgers are the best at this" and you see a guy hitting the ball well it's easy to conclude "this guy is awesome". Now, do I think MLB organizations fall victim to this? Maybe a little; human nature and all. But the Tigers aren't a one-man operation, they are a team of analytic dorks with massive funding. There's always "if the head guy falls in love" aspect where someone can blow things up, but I think more than likely, the Tigers' modeling just loved River Ryan. And frankly, you can see why if you want to. He throws a bunch of pitches, every pitch grades out at least better than 100 on the Stuff+ model. He's going to be 28, sure, but he'll be a FA at age-32 so it isn't like super out of the norm (Kevin Gausman really hit his stride around-28). Pitchers get hurt all the time, so what if River Ryan had a TJS already? It's not special. He's ready for MLB action immediately, so when you trade Skubal and Mize you have a built in replacement...and you got a top-50 prospect to boot? Hell yeah, brother. There's obviously a flip side to all of this, I'm just thinking like someone who loves them some River Ryan. I don't think Scott Harris and the entire Tigers team fell into a Dodgers' trap, but I'm not entirely sure I love River Ryan like they do. We see teams evaluate prospects very differently. And teams have patterns. For Detroit, I think this is just a guy they like more than others.

He probably will. Bateman is a Justin Dean type. He should make an MLB roster. He can add some speed, some glove and some contact. He can be a 25th/26th man. But that's probably his ceiling, too. For where he was picked, it's a steal. But it's a limited upside player, too. From all reports he's a great dude so I'm happy he's getting a chance.

Welcome to NSBB. And listen those are decent prospects, but you're talking at best bench players here. The Cubs could have traded six Brett Batemans in that trade and it'd still be an A-grade from me.

High praise.

Doubt it. They're not packing it it in. But Kirby remains real. Sharma and Mooney shouted him out specifically.

You don't have to hope; they're definitely still focused on a controlled SP. I cannot promise it'll happen, but they're still in on that. Part of the reason they got Gausman is to ensure that the controlled-SP teams cannot railroad them tomorrow. They're going to get a BP arm tomorrow for sure. But with the prospects they have left, they can basically make most of whatever they want tomorrow happen. I feel very good where they are.

It's shocking that no one has gotten either of them an editor at this point.

The Cubs are still in on SPs. Very much so. We might not get any single one done, but the two Seattle arms and the two LAA arms are still in play.

Bob and Bowden are having nights out there trying to out-do each other.

Jim Bowden runs BBTV confirmed.

This is a Jomboy employee. They have connects to the Yankees in some fashion and they need a C.

Preller doesn't work like the rest of the world. While I'd say "trading Morejon and then turning around and doing something else win-now" feels like a video game, AJ Preller runs the Padres like a video game team. With Preller I just never say never.

I'm stealing this from someone else but "I almost feel bad and think the Cubs should send more". This is a horsefeathers home run. Brett Bateman and Ty Southesiene have a combined 7 dingers in their career. I like both as high-contact, high-defense bench guys, but these are mostly "dime a dozen" types in good systems. Gausman's fWAR is on par with Joe Ryan and Nolan McLean. And his xFIP is best on the Cubs already. They have taken nothing away from their ability to get Kirby or Detmers or Soriano as well. This is what an A+ trade looks like for a rental. Now go get more.

Jim Bowden thinks the Cubs traded Tate Southiesene to the Blue Jays. The issue is that Tate is an Atlanta Braves prospect. Thanks, Jim. Good job.

Fun fact, combined, in their professional careers, they have zero home runs.

I really like him as a rental. And I'd love him if they went Kirby/Gausmann. Gausmann is another guy who has experience in the bullpen and gives you options come the playoffs.

Not a mention. But did get this:

Per Mooney/Sharma: - Detmers, Soriano, and Kirby are all players the Cubs are interested in. - "Lesser extent Emerson Hancock" - Rentals such as Gausman, Holmes, Singer - Peralta wasn't "all that appealing" to the Cubs.

I want to stop refreshing my various feeds but I know the second I do something for me a trade will happen.