Jason Ross

Roster resource does not have predictions like that. You have to find predictions elsewhere.

Roster resource is great, but you're using it incorrectly. You're using the crowd sourced contracts like they mean something. Use roster resource for actual terms (not Spotrac who is terrible). Here, compare what crowd sourced contracts are compared to what guys got to see how well they're doing this offseason: Dylan Cease - 5/$130m vs 7/$210m Kye Schwarber - 4/$112m - vs 5/$150m Pete Alonso - 4/$105m vs 5/$155m Edwin Diaz got less year but the same AAV. Josh Naylor almost directly on it. Michael King did much better in AAV and got a highly player-friendly contract. Crowd sourcing gets you much lower than what these guys are getting. Using Imai's numbers there is going to put you $20-$50m low on his total. 4/$64m isn't happening. This should tell you that while crowd sourcing can get a temperature, they're not doing well this year. We can't see how much these guys are over performing these numbers, then look at the reported numbers on Imai (which have ranged from around $80m on the low end to $200m on the high end) and think 4/$64m makes sense.

Imai has 3-4 "formal" offers. It's already been clarified, once again, as a translation issue that yes, Imai has had interest. Him having no interest doesn't make sense. Secondly, roster resource is just a crowd sourcing. They had Dylan Cease at 5/$130m. Almost every prediction from every clued in reporter and baseball guy has him well over the $20m AAV. The $200m mark was always the high mark, but no one has had him under $80m and he's not getting Shota money. He might get a somewhat similar(ish) sliding deal, like Greg Zumach suggested where it's 5/$100m with an opt-out after year-3, and the Cubs can then cancel that with a bigger contract, but he ain't getting $16m AAV, either. I'd look at this like most of the other 2nd-tier-ish NPB guys where he's going to get about the same AAV you expected but it'll be quiet on reporting until it just breaks. Even Murakami got the AAV most expected (16-18m) but the years were low because the K's were such a concern. Imai has some funk to his eval, so maybe he doesn't get the 6+ year deal, but I think anything under $20m AAV is not anywhere near it, either. The amount of concern on Imai might drop him from $150m to $100m but it won't drop him to $60m, either.

Yep! Lance Brodkowski just named him one of this top-5 pitching minds in baseball today in a video. Smart guy! The White Sox aren't a great org, but I'd trust anything Bannister said.

Every NPB player has the same % of their total contract posting fee. Murakami's was just under $7m.

Brian Bannister is their pitching director. He's considered one of the best pitching minds in baseball. That isn't accurate. The White Sox are cheap. Bannister is a smart guy.

Just a reminder on the White Sox/Imai stuff; just hours before Seiya Suzuki inked a contract with the Cubs, there were reports out of Japan that he had signed with San Diego. I don't know if the Cubs will or wont sign Tatsuya Imai, but if the Cubs do, it'll probably just drop out of nowhere. That's how Suzuki and Imanaga happened. We probably won't see small articles about them being a finalist like that.

I don't think that's the best way to look at this. Imai is a weird evaluation here. I've posted this article before, but I'll post it again; this article breaks down why teams may be hard-pressed to evaluate him well. Just because you get a great deal doesn't mean what you bought is any better or worse. In fact, if the Cubs get Imai for $90m, we should all rejoice.

Interesting to see the White Sox pop-up late.

There haven't been any major NPB players who's news broke on the very last day of their posting. When you add in all of the things that need to still happen (contracts signed off, lawyers, a physical, etc) that almost assuredly won't take place on a federal holiday like the 1st, it's incredibly unlikely that it'll happen on Friday. It's also pretty unlikely for it to break on the first - that's a bad news day to begin with and people are busy. So while it's "possible" the probability is incredibly low. I think it's today or tomorrow, and if I was a betting man, I'd put money on that. I have an appointment at 2pm EST today, so that sounds like a good time for it to break just to annoy me. Overall though, it's far more likely it breaks these two days than the 1st or the 2nd when you take context into account. Maybe a team can keep everything very quiet and have the news wait until the 2nd, but I just have a hard time thinking it will.

Yeah, I've assumed that quote is some sort of a translation issue. A "formal" and "informal" contract offer feels very easy to lose across languages.

Followed by Bruce Levine as well FWIW

As much as I want to avoid tea-leaf reading, that's probably a good thing for the Cubs based on what we have heard (wanting to avoid $150m+) and how they have handled Suzuki/Imanaga in the past in similar ways. You'd assume if Imai was getting his top line number, with Boras, it could be wrapped up (I.E. see Cease and Toronto). So if he's coming under that, probably means the Cubs stand a strong chance.

The Cubs have Owen Caissie, Moises Ballersteros, Jaxon Wiggins, Jefferson Rojas, Ethan Conrad, and others. "Bereft" means lacking - so that's untrue; there's plenty of talent. The good news and the bad news is two-fold; that talent if pretty close to the MLB level; which is both what you want if you're going to need to rely on some of that talent now (which the Cubs probably will) but also bad when that talent graduates for prospect rankings. That said, the goal is to win baseball games at the MLB level, not win prospect rankings, so the Cubs are at least on the right side of the tradeoff. What you're picking up is that there is a lack of defined talent beyond the next wave. Part of this is because the team has traded that away; Cam Smith (1st round pick -24), Jackson Ferris (2nd round pick-23), Zyhir Hope (10th round with helium-23) Ryan Gallagher (late round pick helium - 24), Ronny Cruz (3rd round - 24). Part of this is because the Cubs drafted so well that Matt Shaw sped-run the MiLB and ended up at the MLB level faster than you'd have expected. Part of this is because some of the upside gambles just haven't turned out great so far; Naz Mule, JP Wheat, Drew Gray, etc have big stuff but just can't put it all together. So it feels like a bit of a combination of the Cubs choosing that route with trades and part of it being unable to develop some of the big-stuff guys yet (but with Cade Horton and Jaxon Wiggins it's hard to say it's been an unmitigated disaster, either). They also haven't done amazing in IFA recently - but that always feels like such a dice-throw, too. I'd say anyone is being harsh if they poo-poo the system for being top-heavy by ignoring all of the help the Cubs are about to get. I'd also say that same person was not being harsh to point out the lack of defined players behind it. The hope is that the Cubs will luck into a few pitchers as the team gives more responsibility to Tyler Zombro, that the 2025 draft class (Conrad, Kepley, Hartshorn) develops. and maybe in year-2 the Cubs see more of what they hoped from someone like Cole Mathis. Prediction is that the Cubs go very heavy-pitching in the 2026 draft and you hope that as the team stack young talent at the MLB, that the team can take some time behind them to develop the 2025, 2026 and 2027 draft classes into the next wave of young players.

Right but everyone here knows the Cubs are going to bring in another SP in some fashion, so might as well put him where he's likely to begin the season when discussing it.

Love this. Health barring, the bullpen has really shaped up well. Interesting to see the team enter with a far more settled BP situation. Ben Brown and JVier Assad feel much more moveable today than yesterday, not that it means anything (nor am I shoving them out the door, only that they are more viable to be traded with the way the BP is settled)

Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner, Justin Steele, Cade Horton, Matt Shaw, Daniel Palencia, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Miguel Amaya... It is also likely that Owen Caissie, Moises Ballesteros, Jaxon Wiggins, Jonathon Long and Kevin Alcantara all make contributions next year. They will also likely see more players see time, like Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad and a few others who have spent significant dev time with the team. The Cubs are not failing at developing players nor are they failing at drafting players currently. They have also traded drafted players like Zyhir Hope, Jackson Ferris and Cam Smith for other MLB talents. And it's not like these were universally lauded on draft day as "can't miss", either. There was certainly a lull in young talent from 2017-2022, but part of that is because the Cubs traded players away and part of that was internal. The issue with the org right now, however, would not appear to be with finding and developing young players.

Right now, the BP probably isn't much of a downgrade from where it was at the end of the last year. Palencia and Thielbar are back, where as Milner fills a Pomeranz role and Maton fills the Keller or Kittredge role. Finding a Keller or a Kittredge internally isn't a guarantee, but between Ben Brown Porter Hodge, Jacob Webb, Collin Snider, and their MiLB (Jack Neely?) the team has plenty of options who have the ability to break out and fill that spot. It'd be nice to know that they had that guy more than just a hope, but they also have enough pitchers who could take that leap that I'm not super worried about it either. Maybe it won't land as well as Keller did, but I suspect someone from that group will fill a reliable back end role.

On the same end, it's frustrating to come in here and read a full doom-boner party of everyone lamenting that the Cubs never spend money and suck. I get it, we are impatient and we are concerned that the Cubs may not do something. At the same time, I can barely say a decent thing about Jacob Webb or Collin Snider and what they can become without someone flying off the handle that they didn't sign Devon Williams as their only response. Here, I'll add some context; I don't hate Fairbanks. He has a fastball shape I think the Cubs could help as he has a lot of cut. He limits hard contact and probably doesn't need to strike everyone out. And there is no such thing as a bad 1 year deal. I wouldn't have minded the contract. I don't mean to horsefeathers on every contract someone else signs, but adding to the doom-boner pile isn't worthwhile or helpful. Me jumping in and simply agreeing with 9 other people doesn't do anything new. So someone needs to remind everyone that there is 2 months of an off-season to go, that his fastball shape has fallen off significantly two years running and there's medical red flags because it's true. And if it helps one person step off the ledge a bit then good.

I understand that the Cubs haven't given us a lot of reasons to be positive, but at least for myself, this feels like a lot of premature worry. That isn't to say it might not be the case, but it also might not. And not in the "well anything is possible" way, but in the "Tatsuya Imai hasn't even signed yet and all of the teams you'd worry about sound like they are not going bananas for him". Like, there's a legitimate chance in 3 or 4 days the Cubs have already brought in Imai and things are very different. I won't tell anyone how to handle the off-season, but personally, I just don't have it in me at this point to just be worried all the time that they're not doing something. Which is where I'm at on Fairbanks. Check back in with how I feel about the off-season when camp breaks. If the Cubs sign Gallen and pack it in, you'll find me mostly upset at things (even if I think the Cubs can mostly fix Gallen).

The Cubs bullpen transformed greatly in April. We cant both say "the BP in April wasn't good" without also noting that the team did a wonderful job replacing the issues as they went. The Cubs seemingly do a very good job of finding players who they're capable of playing up in the pitching. And just to remind you; this has been a basis of your argument all off-season about the Cubs pitching; you're aware of this too. When it comes to the vision, you're correct, but I have said multiple times that when the off-season is done, I'll judge it. I judged the deadline last year harshly. What I won't do is manufacture anger in December just because another team did something. If the Cubs don't get an impact SP or pass on the offense, don't think I also won't be angry. But getting upset because the Marlins signed a RP who has declining velocity and shape, while also being a bit of a medical red flag isn't where I'm jumping on the bandwagon, either.

The Cubs had the best ERA of any bullpen after May 1st last year. You're right, it's a Jed thing to not allocate resources to the bullpen, but it's also something the Cubs have shown the ability to get value out of despite it. They did so last year with a group of castoffs and players who started the year in the MiLB. I wouldn't expect the top-run limiting BP again next year, but I would expect, regardless, the Cubs to put forth a very competent BP. They have a track record of solid BPs for shoestring budgets, and this year the Cubs haven't relied on the aged-closer. So again, let's wait and see how the Cubs spend the money they do have before we throw a fit about the BP. As of today, they look to have a solid group of arms there, even if it's missing one more definite guy.

If the Cubs had $240m to spend this off-season, sure. They don't. They seemingly have $50m based on reports. They definitely needed 3-4 relievers, an impact SP and some sort of a hitter. Eating $13m of $50m leaves you with $37m to solve the rest of the team. Can you do it? Sure you can. But another $23m spent on a SP leaves you with $14m to solve the rest and you're basically at a point where the only two players you brought in were Fairbanks and Imai or King. That's not the worst, but the Cubs seemingly are quite good at extracting relief value. I'd rather the Cubs spend that $13-$15m on a hitter or something else. We can't live in this reactionary world where every time a team other than the Cubs does something we throw a fit. If we look back in March and the Cubs don't do much, I'll be right with y'all upset. Until then, I'm not going to be upset because the Cubs chose to spend $13m on the relievers they did as opposed to Fairbanks, who I don't really love. Or even Devin Williams who I think is really good, but as we have seen in 2024 and 2025 with very good relievers (like Edwin Diaz and Devon Williams, they're quite volatile. Also, look at Tanner Scott in 2025). We can't see the vision yet. I get it, we are all a bit impatient right now, but this is the MLB off-season and we should know by now the speed of which it goes by. So I'm firmly "whatever" on not signing Fairbanks. I think the Cubs BP is in a perfectly fine place right now, to be honest with you. We can continue to (and should) point fingers at Ricketts as to why this conversation exists in the first place, but beyond that, I just don't really care much about not signing Pete Fairbanks.

Fairbanks has some medical concerns and a fastball that's declined both in shape and velocity. I'm not against a Fairbanks signing but 1/$13m treats him AAV wise right under Williams. The hope is that the Cubs would rather have spent $13m between Thielbar, Maton, Webb, and Milner and then taking the remaining money and solving the rotation and a hitter. As much as we hate this, the Cubs have a budget set. That budget should be higher, but that's also the reality we exist in. Getting four relievers should allow the Cubs to better go big game hunting with the rest of the money. Had they spent $13m on Fairbanks, they would still need three+ more relievers and that could have made it so that with the budget, Imai, Bregman or whatever wouldn't be as feasible.

McGuire probably believes he can get an actual MLB backup position, where as Bethancourt will spend his time in Iowa first and foremost.