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Jason Ross

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Everything posted by Jason Ross

  1. Jason Ross
    There are names on that list who are ranked outside of the top-23 and will cut underslot. As of now the betting favorites are Jackson, Rose and Townsend. I would be very surprised if Outshined didn't list who they pick. They might go Wiggins here just to get him in, but beyond that, I doubt they're going very far off that board. And outside of Carson Wiggins, I think you're talking a small underslot here, if anything. Expect them to not look for one big savings but a few hundred here or there with their first few picks if they are indeed squirreling away for a big prep guy.
  2. Jason Ross
    FWIW, Zumach mocked Daniel Jackson as his final mock. Mentioned a few other names. https://baseballtribune.substack.com/p/mlb-mock-draft-2026-20?r=1tfnx7&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true
  3. Jason Ross
    If you want a counterpoint to the mental thing: he's a very young kid. Pete Crow-Armstrong has really grown up. He's emotional still, but the Cubs worked with a kid who was clearly "no brakes, all gas" and has gotten him at the plate to apply brakes. Everyone is different, but the Cubs have recent success. Injury wise? Absolutely. Rabe has TJS on his record. So I think it's a little "six in one hand and half a dozen in the other" here. At this point, I assume every pitcher will blow out their elbow. I'm down if the Cubs go with Rabe. I do think Townsend fits their model better, but who's to really say the Cubs' model is the right one currently?
  4. Jason Ross
    This is the guy Law was talking about.
  5. Jason Ross
    My mom ruined my entire life naming me Jason.
  6. Jason Ross
    Zumach summed it up really well between Rabe and Townsend: Rabe has a starter's build but does not supinate well and has no feel for spin Townsend has a smaller frame but spins really well One thing that's been bandied about: you can't really fix the spin thing. So you look at this and Rabe's best version is probably a super high velo slider (tight, less spin). You can't really go kick-change with him, because you kill spin with a kick and he doesn't have it. But he hasn't had a lot of starting experience so maybe you just say "this is inexperience". I do think pitchers can control some of their batted ball data. When you see the EV, he's getting a decent amount of that with the ground balls. So I'm not super worried. If you look at Rabe and go "Fastball, tight slider, and I can get him a pitch against lefties" he's super fun. I think I tend to sit Townsend. His knock is, what, he's not big? I'd be more worried about that a decade ago. But I think we've got enough smaller stature pitchers now that if that's your knock, I'll go there. (You have to believe the control)
  7. Jason Ross
    I loved Wiggins and Horton. I hated Wicks, then came around on him. I disliked Nico Hoerner. I've learned that there's a good chance that however I feel at, say, 2:30est today that within one calendar year that I have completely flipped.
  8. Jason Ross
    In five to seven years, hear me when I say this: there will be like three or four guys named "Liam" who will go in the top round. It's been an epidemic at the middle-school level for a few years. The Liams are coming.
  9. Jason Ross
    Cade Townsend. Kaiden McCarthy. Cade Horton. My mom named me wrong. It's clearly the only reason I wasn't drafted as a pitcher.
  10. Jason Ross
    Cade feels very "Cub-coded". IVB on the fastball, cut-ride shape, big curveball (they've been pushing the power curve pretty regularly lately). He's the pitcher I think most fits into what they like doing.
  11. Jason Ross
    That's a good way to look at it. No one is going to jump the top-2 regardless (I really like AJ Garcia and there is no way I'm putting him above the tier-2 guys you listed). I do think there's a good chance that the Cubs find savings to draft a big bonus-baby in the the fourth round (maybe the fifth to give them a day to shop) but even then it's a prep guy (almost assuredly) and even then you're still at a guy that probably deserves to be in the Kepley/Wing cat, and would need to rocketship himself up next year.
  12. Jason Ross
    Joe Doyle has the Cubs taking Cade Townshend. Mentions Daniel Jackson. He's always a good one to listen to. A few years ago he had the Cubs on Cade Horton before most else.
  13. Jason Ross
    I feel the most confident predicting college bat with 1.23. I like Jackson a bit more than Rose, but you can also blame me for being a Louisville-hater (which I am). When I cut through my hatred of all things red-and-black, Rose has tools the Cubs would like and his ability to potentially play CF is something the team has targeted as an under-the-radar type. Maybe AJ Gracia drops, but I think they want to save slot and Rose and Jackson probably save some.
  14. Jason Ross
    The same argument can be used for why you can't make a trade. If we are worried about teams entering the fray, we have to wait for some of the floating around teams to drop out. The Twins just added a reliever today via trade. Teams are going to either have to decide to drop out or the Cubs to pay for it. So they're a bit damned either way. If they can make a trade now great. But it really might take a few weeks.
  15. Jason Ross
    Certainly risky. In that situation I guess you have to really lean on your pre-draft work; relationships with players/agents, that your pre-draft deals are solid and that you can float kids down. I do think that if you go "broad spectrum" and look to sign one of those 16 pitchers who you could throw $2m at and just didn't really give a horsefeathers which lottery ticket you end up with that you probably get one in the 4th. That's be a lot of teams saving a lot of money to detail all 16. But it's probably a bit trickier if you "Vontae Mack no matter what" it about a particular one. As an aside that's like the third or fourth time this week I made a Draft Day reference (terrible movie, guilty pleasure of mine) and I sincerely want Jed to call someone a "pancake eating mother horsefeathers" come deadline when they trade for a starting pitcher.
  16. Jason Ross
    Probably won't happen until August, so don't get your hopes up. As much as the Twins aren't good, even at 46-48 they're two games back of the White Sox who also, just aren't very good, and are in first place. The AL is terrible but it's letting under .500 teams fart around relevancy and they're just not selling until the last moment or they go on ten game streak of dropping eight of them. If you want an early deadline deal it's basically: Royals, Angels, Orioles, Mets, Rockies, Giants as your shopping spots as I think all of these teams are way out of it and probably aren't going to convince themselves they're getting back in. Boston probably belongs here but I don't think they're going to throw in the towel mentally yet, same with the Padres. It will also allow these teams to ask for significant overpays. Your fringe teams like the Tigers, Twins, Red Sox, Padres, Blue Jays, Nationals (as examples) will be happy to float along for a few weeks to see if they can have the opposite of the situation above with the Twins; a good eight of ten run that puts them in buying positions. As for the Cubs, they're probably going to wait a few weeks too. They'll let the Angels or the Giants get a little more uncomfortable to hope for a Detmers or Webb trade, allow Taillon, Palencia and maybe Cabrera get back up and running and then assess.
  17. Jason Ross
    Curious that he mentioned $2m for some HS arms. The number "$2m for someone in the fourth round" was something I've seen specifically mentioned as what the Cubs are looking to stash away early.
  18. Jason Ross
    I have a hard time thinking they will take three position players. That said, I do think there's merit to the idea that the Cubs are going to go under-under-under early to save big bucks for someone a bit later. This isn't the first place I've seen that posited.
  19. Jason Ross
    Gracia is probably my favorite "if he's there, you just take him" pick. I just don't think he's going to be there, but a combination of a pitcher-run and just over thinking could leave him at 23. Run to the podium.
  20. Jason Ross
    Ah, a perfect, no issue, low pressure, scoreless inning.
  21. Jason Ross
    Not the worst send. Required a really well executed play.
  22. Jason Ross
    A good reminder that last year Pedro Ramirez was barely a top-10 prospect organizationally and had zero PA's above Double-A and Matt Shaw, while he had a promising run of games in the second half, had a 93 wRC+ on the year. It's easy with hindsight to see Cade Horton blowing out his arm, Steele's slow recovery, Ramirez's breakout today and Bregman's poor start in Chicago and yell this from the rooftops, but it's not so clear cut. None of this is saying that Bregman has been good, that the Cubs' did enough to address the pitching last year, or anything, only that posts like these ignore how people would have probably felt had the Cubs left 3b open to not block Pedro Ramirez in January.
  23. Jason Ross
    I'm not super worried about the BABIP. He's pulling the ball a lot with solid to better than solid batted ball data. That's a recipe for running high BABIP (minus the speed). As is being on the older side of things in terms of "a prospect" and being a repeater. That said, I could see him being like Patrick Wisdom (not in player comp, but career arc) where he farts around in Triple-A for years posting good numbers, finally gets a shot to stick around and does so as a useful player for a few years. A Jeimer Candelario-Lite, perhaps?
  24. Jason Ross
    Greg mentioned today in his discord that the feeling he gets is that the Cubs think Jackson sticks at catcher. One thing that I've wrestled with this AM is that the two red flags within DJ's profile are: receiving as a catcher and contact/approach. Internally, the Cubs have done pretty wonderfully recently with working with catcher defense (Amaya has come a long way, Owen Ayers, etc) as well as molding hitters within their best profile both mechanically and approach wise. Many time a pick, especially at 23, is as much about the player as the organizational fit, and the two feel like they fit together well. And to be fair, Roboscout projects DJ as the best hitter in this draft. There are plenty of flaws in that, but it's a fun thought especially considering Andrew Fischer was your top spot last year and that's working out well so far.
  25. Jason Ross
    I'm feeling like we're starting to finally see the smoke on the Cubs' pick. Based on some things I've read in Greg's Discord server, the comments from Broz and Kantrovitz, and now even BA changing from Mason Edwards (who had been a consistent picker) to now, Daniel Jackson, I feel like for the first time all cycle, I think I have a decent guess as to where they'd go. I had predicted gun-to-head yesterday Deitz just because I could see people getting wow'd by the potential upside, but I think today I'd guess it's going to be DJ. This matches up well with comments across the board. And while the Cubs don't normally go with a lot of capital into the catcher's position, I think the power/speed/arm combo here lends you to believe a corner OF bat is more than possible making it a bit more of a "Cubs" hitter profile. He doesn't have to be a catcher due to other circumstances, and because of that, could break that mold.
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