Jason Ross

That kind of a contract is almost assuredly not even in the ballpark of what Imai is going to get. Imai is a tier of a FA above that of what Imanaga was. He's 3-years younger, and has a higher ceiling. He's also far more "traditional" - Shota is a fastball heavy pitcher who throws 91mph - it's a weird profile. Imai sits 94-95mph and has a good slider. It's a much more traditional build. I think the low end on Imai is going to be in the $18m AAV for 5 years with absolutely no sliding scale like the Imanaga contract. But I expect it'll be closer to something along the lines of 6-7 years and $22-$24m AAV.

Heyman once again talking about the Cubs suggests that their top priority remains Tatsuya Imai.

So, I'm going to do something here that is going to seem counterintuitive a bit, but I promise I have a reason; I'm going to avoid using fWAR. I actually don't think that fWAR entirely incapsulates what the Cubs do very well in two ways; 1. The Cubs have an elite defense which erases runs. The Cubs significantly outpitched their FIP and xFIP last year and their elite defense is a reason why. There's nothing to suggest the Cubs won't continue to be pretty elite defensively, and I think that factors into an elite pitching unit. Overall, consider them symbiotic. 2. I've got an article dropping maybe in a day or so that explores what I think is a very undervalued and underrated aspect of the Cubs pitching staff and that is their unique and elite way of inducing infield popups. This is a new frontier of "FIP-beating". I'll make you guys read the whole thing to get the full picture, but the gist is this: pop-ups are about as guaranteed of an out as a strikeout, and the Cubs have a pitching staff that has a skill in inducing them. With these in mind, I think the Cubs have the building blocks for a pitching staff that generally runs in the top-5 of most categories. A SP group that includes (New impact FA), Steele (60% of the year?), Horton, Boyd, Imanaga and Taillon (three of which are top-20 in that all-important pop-up thing I'm talking about) is a good rotation. It's very deep. It lacks a Paul Skenes, but especially if you can solve the Imanaga velocity (there's a great tweet thread I'll post that explains the cut-off between like top-30 SP Imanaga and mediocre Shota) you could really have a near-elite run prevention team. Think of it almost like the offense Bertz posted; it might not have the top-end stud, but it's a group that wins with pretty excellent depth. As it pertains to the BP, I'm at a point where if the Cubs are as interested in the BP as some of the non-Matt sources lead us to believe (Jed's words, Michael Cerami and Sharma/Mooney) I think we can hope they add another safe-reliever. I've come around to the Fairbanks idea based on his pitch profile more than I thought, but let's call it Fairbanks or Keller or Suarez (who I'm far more bearish on). You have a legit 7-8-9 in that case with Maton and Palencia, you have a team who's shown an ability to find guys, and you have enough young development that I think the Cubs will be able to find themselves at a point where once again, they have a run prevention BP. At the end of the day I don't expect the Cubs will be a top-5 fWAR unit here. But I do think there's a real path to a top-5 run preventing staff that couples their defense that is coupled with a philosophy that is created to beat FIP. They have also seemed to want to add more whiff in there as well (which helps with the FIP but also in outs creation).

I'd love for them to make it elite again (offensively) but I don't think I see a path for that this year, at least initially. My best case scenario for the offseason has been: 1. Make the pitching elite by spending the bulk of the offseason buying up legitimate BP arms and one impact SP. Coupled with Wiggins who could come up, and Steele returning, I think the Cubs can put together a top-5 rotation and a top-5 bullpen with their development 2. Hope that Caissie, Ballesteros can do enough but then if they don't buy a bat in July. Suarez was pretty cheap at the deadline, and you hope that there's another option like that in July. We learned last year pitching prices are a lot. Hitters are less so.

I have reservations on how his bat ages. He's someone who couples mediocre bat-speed with a very pull-heavy approach. His pull-ability helps to mask the bat-speed and keeps his ISO pretty solid. But he's entering the ages in which we see bat-speed slow down (it's around the age of 32 where we see definitive bleed and 35 is looking like more of a cliff). So how long does the bat speed stay above water? I think the approach will maintain, but I do wonder how quickly does he drop to say, a 105-110 wRC+ hitter? He's a positive defender as a +3 OAA but was a neutral DRS defender, so we're seeing bleed here too. The Cubs may have a way to counteract that. The team has generally stayed away from big contracts and yet they've come back to Bregman two years running - I think that says something. They don't gamble much or spend money willy-nilly so something internally is telling them this isn't that bad of an idea.

I think in that case, Alex Bregman. I have a lot of reservations on Bregman - but the Cubs, seemingly, don't. I also don't think they will punt on SP. I think it's either a trade and Bregman or a FA heavy class.

There's a lot of really interesting BP-style arms out there. I had those names on my radar as well. Sadly, neither can compete with RJ Petit in the facial hair department and that's an important part of my "reliever scouting report". I know my blindspots.

That may be true. As I said, I'm not stumping for Gore or against Gore. What I am doing is showing what I think the pathway forward for Gore is and why a team would be interested. in Gore. Frankly, the Cubs have developed pitching well enough over the last few years, and especially last year, that I'll defer to their thinking. I have issues with how the Cubs operate, I have issues with how Jed operates, but I'm also confident that the man is a human-value calculator and rarely is off there. I think he needs to be a little less of a human-value-calculator and a little more impulsive at times, but it also leads the Cubs to rarely be pantsed on a trade or a FA. So I'm kind of "whatever" when it comes to getting their favorite target for a FA. My preference is personally Tatsuya Imai. But again, I'll probably defer to the powers that be with their current track record. If they punt on getting a good FA pitcher, I'll certainly have issues, but if they come away with a perceived pitcher that could be good enough to be an impact arm, I'll likely be fine with their choice,

I don't think it's a "good enough stuff" issue but an "optimized stuff" one - the year before he was a 104 Stuff+_ guy - the stuff isn't really an issue. Again, this is where modern pitching infrastructures are important. This is an organization who couldn't figure out for years (all the while very intelligent folks on the internet screamed this) that maybe Kyle Finnegan should throw his best pitch more and his fastball less. It's probably fair, then, to assume that an organization who couldn't even figure out a simple pitch-mix issue, probably isn't on top of the finer concepts of seam shifted wake and creating an optimized pitch mix in general. Gore is screaming for a changeup that offsets RHH and he started to throw one last year but it's a bit of a mess right now on location, One thing he did last year was lower his arm angle but it leaked upwards - go figure, right around when he fell off. A lowered arm angle is going to really help that cut-action on the fastball. I'd like to see him keep that, myself. That should help the slider. I'd also advocate a team who's capable in teaching changeups. If the Cubs did trade for Gore, I think they're in a strong position to work on the cut-fastball, the seam shifted wake and the changeup. These are all aspects they worked hard on with Cade Horton throughout the year. They successfully lowered the arm angle of Colin Rea and really upped his strike%. And Jamoson Taillon worked well with the new changeup. Gore is not a finished product today. But I think the clay is there for a smart organization to make Gore into one,

Okay, so first thing I realized I sorted the data wrong: when I was on Gore's page I was using his statcast zone% (as this is the default view) and on FG league% I used the general zone% and not statcast (this is the general view) - so I'll admit here, Gore is a bit below average in this! Whoops; there's lots of pitch tracking. I don't know why it doesn't just default to the same thing, but alas, I missed that. Beyond that however, the idea that zone% is somehow an "ace" thing doesn't bare fruit. Miles Mikolas, Jake Irvin, Dustin May and Randy Vazquez all populate the top-10. Freddy Peralta, Dylan Cease, Hunter Brown and Carlos Rodon all populate the bottom 10. Gore doesn't throw a ton of strikes but generates a good deal of chase - 14th in this rate for anyone with 150 IP. If you want to mitigate that, this is exactly how you do that. But considering how often he's hit in the zone the idea of just "throw more strikes" right now isn't a wonderful plan. As shown above, his pitches don't have deception and he's too centered-mass with his strikes. Throwing more strikes probably doesn't result in a simple "Profit!" situation. You need the organization to get him there. And again, throwing more strikes is not simply an ace thing. Lots of good pitchers throw less strikes than Gore and have been good for years. There are many different ways to skin a cat.

I'm not entirely certain what you mean by "attack the zone", so I'll address his entire strike throwing profile: he throws a little under 2% less first-pitch strikes than league average and is in the zone over 5% of league average, so I don't think there is anything in his data that suggest he doesn't "attack" the zone. In fact, he gets a good deal of chase (70th percentile) - you could make an argument he needs to be less in the zone. Again, as I suggested in my post, the issue is that his pitches do not create the level of deception that they need to. His zone contact% is much higher than league average (almost 10%). This is odd because of how much whiff and chase he gets. So what gives? We can see, what I believe is the issue below, it's his actual spin versus his perceived spin chart and his fastball and curveball locations: As well as this: His fastball and his curveball are pitches you can kind of...sit on right now based on the shape and the location; the actual spin and the perceived spin do not differentiate themselves and he throws his fastball up high and his curveball down low. He's not creating any deception. The one pitch he creates deception with his his slider (in yellow). Notice how much more of the dial it catches. and how the actual spin is different from the perceived. It had the lowest wOBA and the highest whiff% of any pitch of his. He needs a modern organization because these pitches need seam-shifted wake, they need to create more deception in the zone, and he probably needs to work his changeup in against RHH more (it graded out pretty well last year). I'd also like to see him figure out the cutter more. Good thing for Gore if he ended up here; the Cubs specialize in the cut-ride fastball. This is a pitch that would also filter in against RHH. He's barely using it right now; maybe he just doesn't have the feel for it, but I also don't trust Washington to teach any pitcher anything of substance right now, so I'm not entire sure. Look at where he pitches RHH. It's pretty easy to sit on it. Compare that to how he attacks LHH: The vision on Gore is not what was, but what could be in a modern organization that can take what I think are his actual issues (deception in zone) and create more of a decision point for hitters. Right now he's just too predictable for a RHH. His curveball kills hitters out of the zone, he gets a good amount of whiff in general. Should the Cubs trade for him? I'm not going to stump for the guy or against him - I'll defer to the Cubs pitching infrastructure for that. If they feel like the above is something they have a very defined plan for him, then go get the guy. That said, again, the thing about MaKenzie Gore is not what was with the Nationals, it's what to come with a team who you can actually trust to workshop a pitcher properly.

Image courtesy of © Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images Major League Baseball is full of oddities, and the Rule 5 draft feels like a convergence of many of them, as players are not always eligible at the same ages or what even feels like the same stages of their careers. It's a leveling ground of underrated, maybe-too-young for prime-time International Free Agents, over-the-hill former prospects, and middle-round picks mixed between. It's a time for MLB organizations to gamble and find talent that another team has overlooked. While the Rule 5 draft can feel like an afterthought, coming on the last full day of the MLB Winter Meetings every year, it's a day of hope for many players looking to get their shot in the big leagues. When: Wednesday, December 10, 2025 @ 2pm ET Players the Cubs may lose: SS Cristian Hernandez, SP Brandon Birdsell (injured), SP Grant Kipp, SP Connor Noland Recent Cub Rule 5 draft picks include: 2024: Gage Workman, INF (Detroit Tigers) 2020: Gray Fenter, P (Baltimore Orioles) 2019: Trevor Megill, P (San Diego Padres) The first two names on this list, Gage Workman and Gray Fetner are fairly inconsequential names; neither was any good with the Cubs and neither have settled in anywhere else. Workman posted a 38 wRC+ between both Chicago clubs before finding his way back to the Tigers organization for whom he performed well (for an older guy) at Triple-A. Fetner, who never made an appearance for the Cubs, has been out of Major League Baseball since 2023 after flaming out with the Yankees. As with most Rule 5 picks, they rarely pan out. Trevor Megill, however, has come back to haunt the Cubs a bit. Despite not making the Cubs directly in 2020, a deal was worked out between San Diego and Chicago for the reliever to remain a Cub. Megill got his chance in 2021 with the North Siders but struggled in his 23.0 IP with an ERA above 8.00, prompting the Cubs to allow Megill to leave the organization at the end of the season. Since then, he has turned into a dominant option for the Milwaukee Brewers, pitching against the Cubs in the playoffs and shutting down opponents left and right. While most picks are like Gage Workman or Gray Fetner, there are enough Trevor Megill-types who succeed (Hector Rondon, who would pitch almost 300 innings with the Cubs and even served as their closer for a time, was a Rule 5 pick in 2012) that this can be a sneaky way to add value. What might the Cubs do in 2025? Most years, the team does not make a selection. Because you need an open 40-man roster spot to begin with and then need to be willing to carry said-draft-pick for entirety of the season for them to remain within the organization, many teams just do not have the roster flexibility to make picks. On top of that, Rule 5 picks are available for a reason. They have some warts to them; a prospect without warts would be protected from this fate, making it hard for contending teams to see the reward beyond the risk. With the Cubs currently having plenty of open space on their 40-man roster and a clear need to rebuild their bullpen, it's fair to expect the Cubs will make a selection in the Rule 5 draft this year, with that pick likely coming from the pitching side of things. Who, then, might fit what they're looking for? Option #1: RJ Petit, P (Detroit Tigers) RJ Petit might have a second career as an NFL lineman, as he is currently listed at a massive 6'8 and 300 pounds. Beyond just the novelty of his size, there's a bit of a dude here, as the reliever was in the 98th (or better) percentile in the following categories: xwOBA against, average EV against, hard-hit%, whiff %, called strike% and K%. His walk rate wasn't great, but still sat at 10.4%. He sits mid-90's and has a good slider and a changeup that grades out well using TJ Nestico's tjStuff+ grades. For a team who is clearly looking to add swing and miss to their 'pen, Petit fits the mold. Plus, because I'm always biased towards a good mustache, Petit is rocking an 80-grade lip-curtain. The hulking righty would be near the top of my personal wish list. Option #2 - Samy Natera Jr, LHP (Los Angeles Angels) Grabbing pitchers out of organizations with poor reputations for pitching is a good gamble, and why I think Samy Natera Jr. could end up being a player the Cubs hone in on. Natera is a tall, 6'4 left-handed pitcher with big swing-and-miss stuff who has a tendency to walk far too many hitters. So, while the reliever flashes impressive strikeout numbers, punching out 34% of opposing hitters, he also gives a lot of that back by walking 16% as well. Netera Jr. may fit the Cubs program, though. With it looking like both Caleb Thielbar and Drew Pomeranz will be departing the organization, their is a clear need for plenty of lefties in the Cubs' 2026 bullpen. Natera Jr. offers a strong cut-ride fastball, a pitch shape the Cubs enjoy (they cut their fastball more than any other organization in the minors), and they may think they can fix his walk issues internally. He might not survive the MLB cuts in camp, but he could be a worthwhile gamble if they believe in the raw stuff. Option #3 - Peyton Pallette, RHP (Chicago White Sox) Peyton Pallette falls into the "former-top-draft pick" territory we see at times in the Rule 5 draft, as he was once a second-round pick of the South Siders. The RHP's best offering is a curveball, and he has a developing slider and a decent enough fastball that you can see the beginnings of a useful MLB reliever. Because he's off-speed heavy, he doesn't throw a lot of strikes, though he generates a good amount of chase to offset that. As he jumps up a level, he may not ever throw enough strikes, and he may struggle with walks. But he did have a 98th-percentile whiff rate, so there's definitely a real reason to believe in the strikeout capability of the former second-rounder. Perhaps a jump to a better organization (sensing a theme?) could help squeeze a few more strikes out of the breaking-ball specialist. Honorable Mention: Tyler Stuart, RHP (Washington Nationals) Tyler Stuart is yet another team from an organization I don't really trust to develop players well, but I kept him in the HM category for one important reason: he's not going to pitch in 2026 as he recovers from Tommy John surgery throughout the year. A team can still select him, but they would have to carry him on the 40-man roster until the start of the season when they could transfer him to the 60-man IL, locking up a useful slot for months. Then the team would need to keep him on the active roster for 90 days the following year. A contending team like the Cubs may find that a big ask for an unproven pitcher. However, Stuart does offer some fun upside, as he puts all of his 6'9 frame to use. The right-handed pitcher has piled up the strikeouts across the board and while his control comes and goes, a move to the bullpen could squeeze a little added juice and maybe could help him rein in his control a bit more. Players with his size tend to struggle to repeat a motion, so while he won't pitch next year, he could be a tantalizing member of a bullpen in 2027 if you have the patience (and roster space) to help him develop with MLB coaching. What do you think the team will do in the Rule 5 draft? Will they pick someone? Punt the pick? Or maybe there's a name I didn't cover? Sound off in the comment section below and let's start a discussion! View full article

Kyle Finnegan is a good example of what people need to start looking at when people are talking about MaKenzie Gore. Sure, he's an RP, but the reason we look at him is to realize what happens when teams with modern pitching infrastructures get pitchers from teams who don't have this setup. The Tigers took Finnegan from a decently good RP who gave up way too many HRs because he threw his fastball (his not so good fastball) 70% of the time into, over a small 2 months sample size, one of the better relievers in baseball because they switched him into throwing 60% splitters, his best pitch. Washington couldn't figure out this simple switch. This is not a one-off, either as the organization routinely has proven an inability to harness and develop young players and pitchers as a whole. They have been incredibly outdated. Gore has a lot of underlying data that suggests he needs modern pitching infrastructure. He is someone who probably needs more of the Cade Horton treatment where seam shifted wake is employed; his pitches don't create the deception or separation they need. But he gets some good underlying results. A good organization gets Gore and he likely flourishes. Washington just can't make the improvements. The Cubs have turned into a very modern pitching organization with the help of Tommy Hottovy, and especially last year, Tyler Zombro (who is taking an even bigger role this year) and Tread Athletics. None of this is a knock on Gore, either. Just about every pitcher needs a good organization behind them now a days to be successful and stay ahead of the curve.

Bummer. I like Soto as one of the left handed option in the BP.

Imai was supposed to meet with some teams at the Meetings and the thought was he would sign next week.

Don't necessarily disagree. Ketel Marte is a really good baseball player. He's about to hit the "I'm not so sure" ages where bat speed slows down, but he's been a beast two years running now and with his $15m or whatever he's owed per year until he's 37? He's super cheap money wise

For Marte? Probably not even a conversation starter. My guess is that that an expiring Taillon and Steele with 2 years of control, but coming off a TJS brace that won't make it back until the back half of the first year gets a phone hang up pretty quick. Marte is signed relatively cheaply and has been awesome. They want MLB-ready young pitching. They'll probably get it. It's probably Wiggins + Brown + something else good if Arizona is high on Wiggins and Brown to get a start. But that'd be my guess.

Rogers on ESPN1000. Cubs hits: Predicts the Cubs to get Michael King or maybe Tatsuya Imai Cubs like their position players, money will be spent on pitching (bullpen) In on a "real" closer (names Fairbanks/Suarez) Cubs to funnel money to pitching - might circle back to hitting later Feel relatively comfortable with hitters Predicts Tucker to Toronto for $250-$300m (believes Cubs want to be "nimble" with money - clearly code for cheap)

This has Cub-implications in many ways. Connecting dots: Rogers mentions Red Sox (Marte?) could be close to making trades. As were the Cubs. If Marte ends up in Boston, then Bregman to Chicago likely becomes more likely. Thus the Cubs, who ewre also mentioned by Rogers as a trade team, could be getting close to a SP as well?

Ofman hasn't been relevant in Cubs-media for quite some time. He's had some bananas takes this off-season

I have an article dropping tomorrow that highlights 3 pitchers I think the Cubs might grab for the BP. Won't spoil the list, but one has an 80-geade stache.

Probably worth noting that Rogers claimed the Red Sox, Padres and the Cubs were teams that could be close to finalizing moves and Grissom was traded from Boston. Whether that was the trade Rogers was alluding to or not, I have no idea, but could signal the other two are on trade-watch as well (though like Grissom, could be small).

Super not-legit. They just post "winds of the offseason" stuff. I wouldn't buy a thing this account posts and I say this as someone who wants desperately to believe the Cubs are the favorites for Imai