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Jason Ross

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Everything posted by Jason Ross

  1. Jason Ross
  2. Jason Ross
    Heard they think he can play LF. So maybe not.
  3. Jason Ross
    Toronto Blue Jays signed him
  4. Jason Ross
    Seems like there's some skepticism out of Japan: -Translation Feels like Okamoto is going to be another one of these "no one knows" thing.
  5. Jason Ross
    They weren't really "linked" to them. Here's the only mention of those names from the Mark Feinsand article: Link That's not really a report. That's just mentioning those guys are available. Maybe they'll sign Chris Bassitt or Lucas Giolito, but Mark's article isn't suggesting that's what the Cubs are doing so much as "these guys are also available free agents".
  6. Jason Ross
    I agree the Cubs should pick someone and be irrational about him. Alex Bregman is not the player I would pick as that players so this is a moot point to me. I can see a reason why the Cubs would be interested in Bregman, but upper $20's and 5-6 years is my max with how the Cubs operate financially. He is not the player I'd be battling for.
  7. Jason Ross
    Neither did I. I wasn't saying the Cubs will sign one or not. I wasn't assuming the Cubs sign a player of $20m, I was assuming that *if* the Cubs were to do that, he would be the best player the Cubs add this cycle.
  8. Jason Ross
    When did I give any optimism? Imai got $18-21m AAV. I was discussing his contract directly and that had the Cubs signed him at that deal, you'd assume he would be the Cubs best player added and that they are not in a position to once again lose their best addition the following off-season.
  9. Jason Ross
    Opt outs in general are not always bad. But the Cubs are probably in a situation where adding another possible roster opening to 2027 is just not feasible. Hoerner, Suzuki, Happ, Imanaga, Boyd, Taillon, Kelly, Rea, much of their BP....it's a major chunk of the roster. They could resign one or two of them, and they might have internal replacements for one or two as well, but extensions will likely raise those salaries; how much will realistically be left over to replace these guys? And with whom? Many of these players look to be the top player in the market - so how do you get better? You have to assume if the Cubs sign a player for $20m AAV that's the best player they're getting this cycle; losing that player on top of what they already are, has to almost be a no-go right now. In terms of Imai's contract, I think this is especially bad for Houston. They pay the posting fee on the entire contract and what's the upside? If Imai is hurt or bad, he's stuck and if he's good he leaves. One year deals are rarely bad but Houston takes all the risk on this one. Owners shouldn't care about the money but we know they do.
  10. Jason Ross
    I believe Marino Pepin has a pretty poor track record with these things. That said, yeah, at that price, I can't see the Cubs in on him.
  11. Jason Ross
    Any buffoon can, but this is Jon Heyman, not "any" buffoon. Heyman has a reputation and in journalism, that's what matters. There is a reason Nightengale gets a nickname like Boob, but no one makes fun of Jeff Passan (it wouldn't be hard to drop the P there like adding an O to Bob). There was a very good podcast recently where Sharma and Mooney discussed how they go about reporting something when they discussed what the level is for it to pass being post worthy. We can debate how likely the Cubs are to meet what it will take to sign Bichette, and we can debate who has something to gain with this information getting out, but there's probably far more to this than "any buffoon posting something". This is likely a legitimate check in. This is not like what you or I "think"; let's not make silly comparisons like that.
  12. Jason Ross
    That makes sense. Yeah, I feel that's the case too right now.
  13. Jason Ross
    I don't think the Cubs do that. The offers, for example, to both Bregman and Scott last year were competitive and considered. They lost because they don't go above that point. This is more than terminology because I don't think the Cubs are in the business of just dumping offers in inboxes the way someone in your fantasy football league does where they offer a backup QB for a WR1. If the Cubs are actually interested, I suspect the offer for Bichette would be one someone would consider. I also expect the team who signs Bichette to go above that point, and that the team wouldn't be the Cubs. Now, this report could be just "Hey Bo, noticed your market was weak, what are ya thinking?" stuff and they never get to more then that, but I get the feeling many people think the Cubs are just dropping in random, lowball offers to these guys and I don't buy that.
  14. Jason Ross
    I think the Cubs get a little bit of a bad wrap on the "interest". I don't think the Cubs are hitting up agents with embarrassing contract offers. I would expect that if the Cubs are getting connected to players they are serious. The issue is that Cubs rarely go the extra yard, but that isn't un-serious, either...if that makes sense. So I'd probably say it like this: the Cubs, if this is accurate, probably are serious. But they probably aren't prepared to be irrational and that probably isn't going to be enough. That said, this does feel a bit more like the Cubs are just peeping in on someone who has a slow market, so who knows?
  15. Jason Ross
    This is a pretty light connection, but Heyman isn't a nobody and this is a new one. Maybe something to keep an eye out; if they're interested in Bregman, Bichette makes sense.
  16. Jason Ross
    Link here
  17. Jason Ross
    Matt Shaw had a .325 xwOBA against fastballs, so that's not really true. His .326 xwOBA on fastballs post-ASB was higher than Nico Hoerner's. Part of this is because Hoerner just smacks everything and doesn't do so with great batted ball data, so he is a traditional overpreformer when it comes to xwOBA, but I think it's important to highlight, too, I do think there's probably some work to be done there, but it's not some crippling issue like you're making it out to be. Again, don't let what you think you saw in eight games cloud your mind. Eight games are eight games.
  18. Jason Ross
    Fernando Tatis, Steven Kwan, Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton, Trea Turner, Cody Bellinger all were pretty terrible in the playoffs - I think anyone making any decisions based on what is just over a weeks' worth of PA's is barking up the wrong tree. I'd say similarly if he had a 200 wRC+. Players have good weeks, they have bad weeks, and while our lasting memory is a bad eight games, it's eight games. You can find terrible eight game stretches for any player.
  19. Jason Ross
    Purely baseball terms, I think he's a 3+ win player with upside. He had a 99 wRC+ if we go back to his initial return in May which puts him well above the positional average of 93 wRC+ last year. Ernie Clement put up a 3.2 fWAR season with a 98 wRC+, with an 11 DRS; Shaw put up a 12 DRS in smaller samples (OAA was a -1). So, without really any more improvement if he simply maintains, he's going to get to 3 wins. Clement, as well, was tied for the 7th best fWAR of any qualified 3b last year. As a human being, there's a lot of weirdness surrounding Shaw (to put it as nicely as possible) and I won't fault anyone for their feelings there (I find it hard to reconcile myself). But as a player there's a good chance that Shaw is a top-7 or better player at his position next year.
  20. Jason Ross
    A lot of that depends on Ballesteros. If you told me Ballesteros is only a DH, I'm not sure how likely I am to make that trade. I don't love his bat as a DH only. It also depends on medicals on Cabrera and what the Cubs plan to do the rest of the offseason. On Mo, if he catches 50+ games a year, it's a different story. I'm not able to really scout defense like I can offense, especially catching defense. So that's a team choice more than anything I can add information on (or at least am willing to add information on - just feels beyond my reach).
  21. Jason Ross
    There is almost zero chance that the Marlins are asking for Shaw for Cabrera. They were asking for Caissie+ at the deadline and he had a bit of an injury scare and has less team control. We are beyond either Gore or Cabrera needing Shaw.
  22. Jason Ross
    Yeah, I won't say that I know what the plan is, either. I think they're better set up to trade for a SP than they are someone on offense, so Bregman + a Cabrera trade feels like something they could do versus, say, sign Imai and trade for a hitter, if they're trying to get both one hitter and an impact SP. Or maybe they really are cheaping out. They boxed themselves in last offseason, so let's hope they learned something.
  23. Jason Ross
    I don't think that passes the smell check. Sharma and Mooney suggested the Cubs moved on from King once he was looking at a opt-out heavy deal and the Cubs didn't seem to go for the Imai opt-out-deal. I'm not sure they will sign a 10+ year contract or maybe even a 6 year contract but I don't think they're as worried about 2027 money as fans think they are. I think they'd have signed King or Imai on opt-out heavy deals if they were. More so, I think were just seeing another Jed Hoyer "in the periphery, wait the market out" type of an offseason for better or worse.
  24. Jason Ross
    To preface this; the Cubs ownership sucks and I'm not defending any billionaire's spending practices, but the Astros will be on the hook for more than that. First, the Astros have to pay the posting fee on the entire contract, even if he opts out. So they'll first pay 20% of the total contract. Then if he's good, he'll opt-out. It'll be a pretty massive one-year contract if Imai is good when you take that into account. Again, every team should be able to afford that, but in terms of just the money, it'll likely be closer to $30m on a one year deal in terms of money paid out if Imai is good.
  25. Jason Ross
    Then his AAV is going to be $21m AAV as long as he's healthy and not terrible.
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