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Jason Ross

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Everything posted by Jason Ross

  1. Jason Ross
    Per Rosenthal: Deferrals are included and present day value is lower than $35m AAV. We don't have full details yet but these will be paid out "a few years after" his contract ends with the Cubs.
  2. Jason Ross
    Another thing to point out: Alex Bregman's 3.5 fWAR (in 114 games) would have been the second best fWAR season of Kyle Schwarber's career, and tied for third for Pete Alonso. Bregman's 4.2 fWAR the year prior would have been better than anything Pete Alonso has ever put up. Kyle Schwarber did have a really great 2026 but it feels like a realistic possibility that it's a clear-and-away "career year" type of a season, where as Bregman is a very consistent mid-4's. Alex Bregman is a really good baseball player and very well rounded. He won't hit as many home runs as those guys, but he's a damn good player and the Cubs got much better last night.
  3. Jason Ross
    Absolutely. It feels like Bregman is Hoyer's "Jon Lester" in a lot of ways. I don't think they're exactly 1:1. but Lester was brought in around the same age/length-in-commitment not only to be an important player, but that Theo (as an aside, typing "Epstein" only here feels weird now-a-days and I didn't realize that until I tried it initially) saw him as the "culture component" to his roster.
  4. Jason Ross
    I do not think that will change. I think the roster, as of today, is essentially done. They will probably do their "bring in a few random relievers on MiLB deals" thing between now and camp, but I also think "what you see is what you get". On the bench, I think they will be fine being that RHH heavy. Their lineup has a lot of left handed hitters that will likely sit against LHP - PCA, Busch, Ballesteros are all likely to see far less playing time against lefties. On those days, the Cubs will likely have a lot of left handed hitters on the bench. So I think it's a feature, not a bug.
  5. Jason Ross
    Combination of: 1. Internally they view him as someone who should age well. He's got a strong mix of bat-to-ball skills, glove skills, and isn't someone solely reliant on bat speed. 2. It's clear that the Cubs view him as a culture guy - the Cubs are an organization that clearly cares about the culture. It's why Turner was around, it's why they brought in Craig Counsell, and Bregman seems to be that guy too. 3. A five-year-commitment isn't forever. It's a decently long contract but it fits into a roster churn. Also, when Bregman's deal is up, that's when players like PCA, Shaw, Horton will all be FA.
  6. Jason Ross
    Alcantara has over 500 PA's in Triple-A. That's not so much he has to promote, but he's also seen plenty of MiLB pitching. Getting him curated PAs and allowing him to be the 4th OF'er, mostly to hit LHP is a pretty soft landing spot in MLB. They'll be fine with him in that role and it'll be good for his development.
  7. Jason Ross
    For better or worse it feels like the Hoyer version of Jon Lester. Or at least what they hope is that.
  8. Jason Ross
    He's very consistent, has tons of contact and playas great defense. It wouldn't be shocking for our models to undersell this type. I can't say it's perfect, but for an organization we have consistently said doesn't give a horsefeathers about winning, this move puts the Cubs above the LT, jumps the hitter market and shows the care to some degree. That should tell us something about how the see him internally.
  9. Jason Ross
    I know there are going to be many skeptical. But here's the thing: the team who we call claim doesn't give a horsefeathers just gave a horsefeathers enough to go over the LT for a player. That tells us something in the models we have doesn't match up with the models the Cubs have.
  10. Jason Ross
    Woah!
  11. Jason Ross
    Addison Russell can get horsefeathered.
  12. Jason Ross
    I understand that, but I think it's important to remember that a lower amount of years will drastically increase the AAV. That's the incentive to sign one of those. And we know the Cubs run on a more limited budget. I would expect Bichette on 4 years to cost more AAV than Bregman on 6. Should they do it? Sure! Will they?
  13. Jason Ross
    We have some rough idea that the Red Sox are around 6/$170m but there could be things in there that make it less valuable. There could be deferred money. That kind of contract is around the upper end of what Bregman will cost and I'm not sure what the wait on it would be. Maybe he's just trying to get a little more. Beyond that, I do not believe Bichette is signing 6/$170m - it would drop him as a FA at age 34. He's either looking to go beyond that into his later 30's or earlier than that. 34 is in a bad no-man's land for an infielder.
  14. Jason Ross
    I found the "cares about winning" portion about that tweet interesting. Heyman has always been close to Boras and that reads like a shot across the bow a bit from Scott. I'm with Bertz and think that Bregman will be the first of the four to sign and it feels like it's not far off.
  15. Jason Ross
    I don't disagree that the Cubs are cheap, but you're making assumptions here that aren't supported by anything but conjecture. In terms of upside, Edward Cabrera has just as much upside as Dylan Cease, Tatsuya Imai or any of the free agent pitchers. He's also much younger than the proven arms and at the same age as Imai, who has his own question marks. And the fact remains, the Cubs can't keep every prospect on the planet - not every prospect-for-player trade is "because a team is cheap". Flipping prospects you don't love internally, or don't plan on using for something you will use is certainly a possibility. 27-year-old types with the upside Cabrera has are not available via FA very often.
  16. Jason Ross
    Right. But teams are willing to trade injury chance for development; that's the opposite. Quantity can be found far more easily than quality. There are more Javier Assad types than there are Edward Cabrera types. It is great to be available. But what you do when you're available matters as well
  17. Jason Ross
    I don't think every organization in baseball would agree with you.
  18. Jason Ross
    I assume this isn't much of a sticking point; money talks.
  19. Jason Ross
    He was banged up at times, but would expect he won't be used as often here. I don't think he'll be used very often against RHP. And he really only has to make it through a one year contract. He had 445 PA's in 2024. So it's very doable.
  20. Jason Ross
    Top-5 1b in baseball offensively.
  21. Jason Ross
    I don't think that's necessarily the plan. Austin can handle some corner OF in theory, and DH, and 1b. I think it'll be a fluid situation. Busch will probably sit against some lefties, but I don't think it's as simple as "Busch and Austin". I suspect the Cubs will use data and determine the best lineup daily.
  22. Jason Ross
    He absolutely murdered LHP in Japan. He was one of their absolute best hitters for the last half decade. Should we expect the 170 wRC+ to carry over exactly? Probably not. But he's made a lot of changes to his swing and approach and I think him being a good hitter against LHP seems very possible. I think he'll be much closer to what we hoped Justin Turner was last year - someone who will give you a strong at bat against LHP while tacking on 10 or so home runs.
  23. Jason Ross
    There were reports he'd play 2b. I have a feeling, though, that money talks.
  24. Jason Ross
    Per Cerami: According to one source, Cubs do have legitimate interest in bringing back Bellinger.
  25. Jason Ross
    They did. 18 year old in AZ complex league. Big power. Big whiff. 1b only.
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