Jason Ross

Bring back Jamo. It's the only chance teams have when our offense does this.

He looked like maybe he turned a corner. Yeesh.

I'm just using the relievers who are in the ballpark of Weaver. Sadly, it was seemingly the Mets who made all of those deals last year which makes my point a little more foggy...thanks David Stearn for that. But mostly my methodology was that I felt Miller and Duran feel like a tier well above Luke Weaver, where as Caleb Ferguson feels like he was less. Soto, Helsey and Rogers feels more in line with Luke Weaver, from my stand point so I went with them. If we want to look at Caleb Ferguson, on an expiring deal, the Pirates acquired him for a single 40+ FV pitcher in Jeter Martinez. But he was signed to a 1/$4.5m deal in the offseason where as Luke Weaver was signed for 2/$22m. So I think it's fair to assume that Weaver would go for much more than Ferguson at the deadline simply based on how the league handled the two in the offseason. I don't know. In the end, I don't think the Mets would do an Ayers/Wing swap from their end. I also understand anyone higher on Ayers than Eric (and it's an argument I think you could passionately argue and I'd probably come away thinking it was a good one). But I do think if we're using the FG ecosystem in total that the deal makes sense. Ultimately, no team is doing that, so there's plenty of nuance that we just can't know.

I'm not sure I agree with that, either. I don't think he has to pitch to a sub 2.00 ERA to be worth two 40+ prospects. Gregory Soto picked up Wellington Aracena (45) and Cameron Foster (35+). At the time of the trade Soto was pitching to the tune of a 3.96 ERA, a 3.89 xFIP and was a free agent at the end of the year. To map that out using the updated FV chart, a 45 pitcher is valued at $9.5m and a 35+ pitcher is valued at $1.5m. So that's $11m value back. Using Logenhagen's valuation a 40+ hitter is worth $8m and a 40+ P is valued at $7m. So you're at $15m. I totally understand if you're on the fence of thinking Ayers is a 45 hitter. That adds a lot of value. It takes the total from $15m over $20m because it effectively doubles the value of Owen Ayers. But if we're just sticking within the entire FanGraphs ecosystem, the price of Ayers and Wing is valued at slightly higher than Gregory Soto's expiring contract, and I think Weaver, especially with control, is worth $4m more than Soto. EDIT: I read a 45+ pitcher initially and noticed that with all of my charts. that I erroneously added a + to his rating in my brain, throwing off my numbers initially. I have updated my math and post, but there's a real chance you saw the original. I don't think it changes my premise, but I did want to be accurate.

I'm not sure I agree. It depends on how you're valuing a lot of things here: 1. What is Owen Ayers' value? I think he's very hard to pinpoint on what the Cubs should value him as and how another team should value him. The numbers are great. The age is a bit of a concern as is the lack of track record. 2. What is Kaleb Wing's value? What kind of injury are we talking? Ryan Helsey went for Joshua Baez (40+ on FG) and Nate Dohm (35+) last year at the deadline. He was having a worse year than Weaver, but was also better than Weaver before. He also had no control. Ayers is a 40+ on FG right now as is Wing. Tyler Rogers went for a 45+ and a 45 as well as Jose Butto. I think you can say that maybe Ayers is low on Eric's list. But even if you bump him to a 45, I think it's in line with how relievers were bought last year.

Just not sure what value he's taking there. I don't think he's headlining that deal. If he headlines it? Sure. But Doubt he does. I'm not against Detmers one bit, but I do think there's a belief that Ayers is like 1a or 1b in that trade and I think he's a clear 2 behind Rojas. Obviously if he leads it? Cool. But as 2nd piece, there are others I'd prefer.

I'd probably do that. I like Ayers but he's truly a 25 year old pop up prospect; catcher be damned. Wing has a season ending injury - that isn't a good thing. But I think the same reasons I'd probably, with an arm twist, do it, are the same reasons I also don't get from a Mets' perspective. Why do you target Ayers when you have Alvarez? Why do you target a teenage pitcher who's hurt?

Not reporting, but thought it was worth a talking point:

I'm a fan of: 1 SP 1 RP 1 RP you get cheap and can dump either with an option or just leave off the roster and not feel like you paid too much for that privilege

As much as I'd like it to be two, I think the Cubs will go, ultimately, with one. Obviously, injuries can happen and will, but New Guy, Shota, Boyd and Cabrera/Brown would be a perfectly fine playoff rotation as long as you are planning on those two guys coming back to the rotation. And with Rea and Assad in tow, you have two depth options to easily take the 5th spot. The math changes based on your feelings on Cabrera or Brown returning, certainly, but the Cubs are definitely acting like they're coming back. There is a bit of an event horizon in that the deadline is to get the Cubs into the best playoff shape they can be, and if they need a Rea still on top of a playoff arm? I think you'd get two. But I do think they have three pitchers you can reasonably trust (or that the Cubs feel like they can trust) in that regards. I'd probably rather them spend the resources they would on the 2nd SP on the bullpen. Give me the best SP you can get and the best RP you can get.

Becuase these things will undoubtedly affect the deadline there are a few injury updates of note: - Alex Cohen says Justin Steele is progressing towards pitching for the Cubs. - Ben Brown is about to resume throwing. Was seen in Arizona.

Looks like Shelby Miller is throwing today.

If Ramirez isn't a 120 wRC+ bat, than he isn't an Ian Happ comparison, though. So we're either moving the goalposts, underselling how good Ian Happ has been, or overvaluing Pedro Ramirez. If you want something a bit more realistic to what I think Ramirez is right now? It's whatever Brian Rocchio is putting up. A 106 wRC+, a K% around 15% and a walk rate around 7%. He's hit nine home runs on the year. That's roughly where Pedro was for much of his MilB career. His xwOBA on the year is .297 compared to Pedro's .299. Maybe you move a few things around, but that's about a line I think I'd expect for Pedro Ramirez, especially at age-23 when you don't curate the PA's so much, the league adjusts and he settles in. But that 106 wRC+ puts you in the 20's when you look at LF'ers with 150 PA's at the position. And that's where the issue is for me. Whatever defense you think you're gaining in LF, you're throwing away with the bat. And I don't think that's the worst case scenario, but that isn't worth prospect hugging him this year. I can see that being servicable, especially with a strong bench, so it isn't so much "it can't happen" only "let's not overpromise" or in this case, expect too much. It's alright, but not something you can't replicate. A lot of this feels like you're taking a square peg and putting it in a round hole. It's a lot of "well maybe if he does this" or "maybe that". But that's the same argument for Matt Shaw. Shaw's xwOBA last year? .302. What's he doing this year? Putting up glove and base running value to offset his bat in the OF. That's what I meant when I said they're equal value. You can personally just like one over the other, but when we get to brass tax, they're pretty similar. And a good reminder, Shaw hit better than Pedro Ramirez at Triple-A before he came up. He had a 144 wRC+ in Iowa. He walked more than Ramirez. And had a longer history of power hitting. I just think when you boil it down, it's 6 in one hand, half a dozen in the other.

I like Ramirez, but there are a bunch of pitchers I'd happily move him for. He doesn't really have a home with the Cubs that is a good fit. For example, I think you're being super kind to him suggesting an Ian Happ comp at any level. A 120 wRC+, which is what Happ has been consistently, would basically be the best hitting 2b in baseball. I don't look at Pedro Ramirez and go "yeah, that guy is going to be the best hitting 2b in baseball" as a comparison right now. I think a fair expectation is in that 100-105 wRC+ range which still gets him above the 2b average. Which is also just ever so slightly better than LF league wide (99 wRC+ this year) but it's not so much better that you draw a circle around him and say "there's only like 3 guys I'm trading him for". Between he, and Shaw, one of them has to move, IMO, in a perfect world. You cannot walk into next year with a bunch of 2b bats in the LF/RF spots. And between the two of them, I think if you're valuing one over the other at a pretty high level, I think you're probably being unfair to the other one. You can like one thing about Shaw or Ramirez over the other, but on paper, they look pretty equal value wise. Especially for a team in which "another infielder" is probably the last thing the MLB side of things needs.

Jeff Passan posted a podcast about the TDL. It wasn't super insightful, more discussion than news. But a few things I caught on it: 1. He thinks Emerson Hancock will be traded. 2. Talked about Detmers and the Angels needing to sell and start over. 3. Mentioned that the industry thought Skubal would be dealt in the offseason, and now it's a lot of fog on whether he'll be traded 4. Executive told Passan they may keep Skubal and trade Mize. 5. Doesn't think Joe Ryan will be traded. 6. Mentioned he didn't think the Cubs and the Mets were a matchup for Peralta. Doesn't see it. "Things would have to change". But did suggest the Brewers there. 7. Royals are telling teams they won't be trading Wacha and Lugo. Passan finds that curious. 8. Thinks Mets should deal Weaver. 9. Believes Marlins are "listening" on Alcantara, did mention the return wouldn't be massive. 10. Jays are talking with teams on Varsho and Guasmann. Possibly Tyler Rogers. Anticipates Guasmann to be dealt. 11. No traction on Holmes extension. Thinks the Mets will make more than 5 trades. Expects Holmes to go "guarantee it". Mentioned the Cubs as a possibility.

He doesn't look bad, but his xwOBA is under .300 currently and his BABIP is over .350. These are pretty curated PA's and he's barely played against LHP. I don't think he's basically like Happ; he is someone you can take to the bank on hitting 20 home runs and Ramirez probably isn't someone you can even bank on hitting 15. The xData is still in small sample size territory, but part of that is also brought back down with the curated PA's thing. Definitely something to monitor. I'm not entirely against the idea of Ramirez getting a look in LF and had floated that idea before he even came up, but there are some underlying numbers that should give everyone pause and the idea that his bat is much more that of a 2b than a corner OF'er. He's fun, but I'm not entirely sold yet in that fashion.

Absolutely. As much as we like to think the Cubs' are in a unique situation with as many pitching injuries, they're not that unique. Many teams have pitching woes; Lucas Giolito picked up almost 30 of the most ineffective innings across baseball for the Padres, as an example. Between August 4th and September 1st, there's a good chance some MLB team is going to be running on fumes for MLB pitching and the choices of who to pick up will be incredibly thin. A "game-shape ready" Jameson Taillon, even with how bad he's been, will probably appeal to someone.

Thornton living dangerously tonight.

Happ having a game out in LF

Peterson has been decent. He's thrown a lot of strikes (64%) which is unlike him. Got some babip luck maybe, not a ton of whiffs, but has gotten 5 ground balls. Yeoman's work, but it's useful.

...so you're saying I can't gift the Cubs a starting pitcher because they realize they need it? And instead I have to give them another infielder?!?

Recency bias shouldn't outweigh his 171 wRC+ on the season vs LHP or his 127 wRC+ last year.

Castillo is an interesting case. On one hand, a lot of his numbers are kind of what they've been. His K% is within around 1% of where it was last year, he's not walking guys, his Stuff+ is the same, his arm angle is the same, the velo is fine, he's not giving up a lot of HR's and the LOB% is low for what it probably should be. But then you look at the whole and it's just not working this year. The fastball last lost some shape, which you can see in Stuff+ and it's movement profile on Savant, his K% was down below average last year. He's getting less chase and his savant page last year wasn't sparkling. So is it just the hens coming to roost? With that said, I'm mostly "out" on Castillo. If you can bring the K% up to where it was before last year, or there's some mechanical thing the Cubs really believe in he could be a cheap, controlled SP. But I'd rather just pay up for someone better, Or even a rental.