Jason Ross

"Most logical" doesn't mean "perfect". It means out of what we've seen, it's the most logical. I'd probably have Alcantara a spot or two higher. But we're not seeing Kane Kepley get like, top-5 love, or Alcantara as a top-40 prospect, either. So while it's not exactly how I'd go with it, this is the closest we've seen to a logical, top-10 that doesn't swing too far into shiny new toy syndrome.

McDaniel comes through with what feels like the most logical top-10 I've seen.

Yeah I'm not worried. The Cubs will be fine and will have a plan. They have enough arms with injury histories that they will need the depth at some point. My point with that previous post was to dispell this idea that the Cubs are going to place a healthy pitcher on the IL with some sort of agreement on a phantom injury. These things are fantasy. Boyd or someone may start on the IL, but as of today everyone appears healthy.

He lowered his 4 seam use last year and increased his strike throwing. His new arm angle seems to have fixed that on his own. I do expect that Cubs will tweak the mix, and I wonder if a cutter will be added and his mix will look more like Cade Horton; cutter, changeup, 4 seam to lefties, sinker, slider changeup to RHH.

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images It may not always feel like it outside, but spring training is coming soon. We're just a few days away from pitchers and catchers officially reporting to the Cubs' complex in Mesa, Ariz., and we're less than two months from regular-season Chicago Cubs baseball. Between now and then, we will see lots of predictions and guesswork offered up. Who's going to lead off? Who's going to make the Cubs bullpen? Will they run a true six-man rotation when Justin Steele returns? I have no answers to those questions today, but I can offer a prediction I feel is a stone-cold lock: Ian Happ is going to have another good season—and, as a bonus prediction, Cubs fans online will attempt to skewer the guy, anyway. My faith in Happ lies, first and foremost, in the data; the man is incredibly consistent. For Happ's career, he sports a 116 wRC+. Last year, Happ finished with a 116 wRC+. Between 2022 (an important line of demarcation for him, something I'll explore later) and 2025, Happ's best season based on wRC+ was a 122, and his lowest was a 116; he's basically the same guy year after year. Look, below, at a chart comparing major data points over those years. There are a few data points that stand out as slightly different (e.g., the strikeout rate in 2024) but you're mostly splitting hairs at that stage. If you're worried that Happ's 2025 being a sign of things to come, I have some good news; he had, maybe, his best season ever, when we consider batted-ball data instead of simple results. The Cubs' left fielder posted the second-best expected wOBA of his career last year, .020 higher than his actual wOBA, suggesting that his slight step backward in 2025 was due largely to some bad luck, tough Wrigley Field park effects, and/or the deadened baseball. This isn't a situation where you'd have expected him to under-perform his xwOBA, either. For example, players who don't pull the ball a lot can sometimes hide behind inflated expected data, because expected data doesn't take into account where you hit the ball and pulling the ball produces better numbers. Happ posted some of his highest pull rates of his career last year, though, so that's not the problem. The oft-maligned outfielder wasn't always this consistent. He posted a 106 wRC+ and a 105 wRC+ in two of his first five seasons. Famously, he was demoted to Iowa for much of the 2019 season due to his issues at the plate, and his 2021 season (105 wRC+) was a follow-up to a 132 wRC+ posted in 2020. Part of the reason for this was that that version of Happ struck out a lot more than he does today. The 2022 campaign was an important year for Happ, as he worked on limiting his strikeout rate and unlocked this more consistent version of himself. Some fans charge Happ with being streaky within seasons, even if he looks metronomic when you glance at his baseball card. While it's true that (for instance) Happ was much better in the second half than the first last season (101 wRC+ vs. a 139), his batted-ball data told a different story, which I wrote about in early August. But truthfully, all hitters are streaky. Everyone can get hot, and everyone can get cold. Freddie Freeman had a run last year between June 1 and July 28 (spanning nearly 200 plate appearances) in which the eventual Hall-of-Fame first baseman posted a 63 wRC+. That's not to say that Happ is Freeman, but if it can happen to Freeman, well, it can happen to Happ, without proving the latter a flake. What makes a hitter "streaky" to begin with, I don't think we can truly say yet. While the improved bat-to-ball skills make Happ more consistent year-to-year, it doesn't stabilize him from game to game. In a study done by Justin Choi of FanGraphs, he found no correlation between strikeout rate and streakiness within a season. Another FanGraphs entry, this time by Ben Clemens, dove into Michael Harris II's 2025 season and suggested that while hot-and-cold streaks beget each other to a degree, the reasons behind them are hard to fully parse. The reasons are probably so idiosyncratic—so tied to both the specific skills and approach of a hitter and the circumstances of any given moment—that explaining the phenomenon broadly is impossible. We can say, at least, that it's not entirely a bad thing to be streaky. In the first article, the least consistent hitter in 2022 was another future Hall of Fame player, Mike Trout, who finished that year with a 176 wRC+. We have to look beyond the ebbs and the flows to see the true greatness of Happ. In baseball, true talent is seen in year-to-year results. Freeman, despite his terrible two-month tumble, still posted a 139 wRC+ last year. His career line? A 141 wRC+. Happ's true talent always shines through at the end of the year, even though it's not quite Freemanesque. It's why he, too, landed right on the nose of his career line. 736165a0-30ecda66-6e3ab337-csvm-diamondgcp-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4 What we can take from this is simple: Happ is about as much of a lock to finish somewhere around a 115-120 wRC+ as you can find. He's probably more of a lock than any other Cubs player to be what you expect him to be. Yes, there will be a few weeks wherein he's red-hot and a few weeks wherein he's ice-cold, but that's a baseball issue, not an Ian Happ issue. The Cubs' starting left fielder is not going to be Cooperstown-bound at the end of his career, but he's shockingly easy to predict as a well above-average player. Try to keep that in mind when he's struggled for a few weeks. It's pretty likely your tweet/skeet/reddit post (or comment right here at North Side Baseball) will eventually look pretty silly, when he inevitably ends up exactly where he always does. Don't panic when he has a rough month, instead, know that Happ is truly a security blanket for the Cubs. There are lots of unknowns in the season ahead, but it's nice to know that you have a player like Happ, who will eventually just be the guy you think he'll be. View full article

Id far rather have Gallen through 2027. He helps to move the roster cliff a bit; life becomes easier when you need to replace players over a two year span than a one year one. Secondly, it depends on what you can do to fix Gallen. Lance Brodzowski did another great video, this time talking about pitchers who were bad but could be good. His most confidence was placed in a team fixing Gallen. Maybe he's not the top-10 SP in baseball like he was from 2022 through 2023, but instead as a top-30 type. There's a pretty clear path for a good baseball organization to fix him. Not a guarantee but a path. If the Cubs like their setup, they're in a perfect place to take that gamble. They still have Cabrera, Horton, Imanaga, Boyd, and Steele around Gallen meaning his fix isn't as necessary. Secondly, while Taillon was fine last year, he wasn't a great pitcher. He didn't hit 130 IP, was only worth 1.1 fWAR in those innings and his K% sits well below 20%. He's okay. I think a team will want him at around 1 year and his AAV. But he's very upgradeable and the Cubs upgrading there is significant. While I understand Suarez had a great line last year, he's at an age where as a hitter he can fall off pretty quickly (even in a year). And a good reminder that Suarez hasn't been the model of year to year consistency, posting an 85, a 132, a 105, a 115 and a 125 wRC+ over the last 5. I wouldn't be shocked to see him back down in the 110-115 wRC+ range at which you're getting a pretty mediocre DH. I wouldn't necessarily do this unless I could keep Gallen for 2 of those years; I think an opt out after 2027 is the best case. If it's just a 2026 thing I have less interest when you add in the QO. Levine's quote suggest 2027 is on the table.

Development is not linear. Simply because Shaw is young does not mean he is on the upswing. While the Cubs would certainly love that to be the case, plenty of young players peaked their rookie seasons and then fell apart. Shaw had about 1.5 good months at the plate and one good defensive data point. Bregman has been one of the best 3b in baseball and maintained that last year. There is no guarantee Shaw improves beyond where he is. Lastly, to "jump the shark" one must do something ridiculous for little reason because you're all out of ideas. The Cubs didn't do something ridiculous for little reasoning by signing Bregman. They signed a 125 wRC+ player. At best that's what you're hoping Shaw might become. So how is that the Cubs "jumping the shark"?

They can't start the year with one of those pitchers on the IL if they aren't hurt.

I don't think the Cubs are taking on a lot of money. I'd expect it to be closer to the Bellinger trade. So maybe a Poteet type deal.

This screams "Taillon trade". Someone is going to want him around his contract value. The Cubs won't get much back, but Gallen for Taillon feels like a solid upgrade, so that's my hope.

"three year deal with the ability to get out of it in a year or two" and "is there another SP you may have to move" feel like two important lines.

Best case? This is a guy who can run his changeup to 94mph. Not his fastball, his *changeup*. The best case scenario here is "sky is the limit". That will require many things coming together; the 2025 control, pitch mix tweaks and health, but if it does, that's your perfect storm. Likely it will be below that. I think a realistic hope is 130-140 IP where he looks like a top-25 (or so) SP in that sample.

Is he "on the rise"? He had a good run after the ASB, but he also finished the year where he struggled down the stretch and in the playoffs. His good run equates to around 1.5 months of good baseball. Development is not linear; this means he doesn't have to get better simply because he's young. Many young players have struggled and been bad after an initial good run of baseball. Since 2020, Bregman has averaged a 124 wRC+. He had a 125 wRC+ last year. He doesn't need to be "on the rise" at the age of 31; he's what anyone here would hope that Matt Shaw could eventually be offensively. Defensively, Bregman was better per OAA and worse per DRS.

How many snaps did they run under center? Probably already has strong ground ball posture.

I know you meant Geno Suarez, but I'm enjoying the idea of Geno Smith, Raiders QB starting for the Red Sox at 2b.

He's better using DRS, he's worse using OAA. It depends on which you'd like to use.

I wouldn't say a "good" prospect. He was an interesting prospect in some of his tools, but his strikeout rate was already sitting over 30% as a 20-year old in Myrtle Beach and it wasn't like he was a highly regarded pick, either. He had a good year last year, lowered the strikeout rate to under 30%. Whether that would have happened with Chicago? Who knows? Some players click with coaching or an organization, maybe they had a different plan... We'll see where he goes from here - the K% is still concerning enough that it is likely a fatal flaw, but it may not be. For his sake I hope he does well! I liked watching him with the Cubs org. Ultimately, it's the price of business. More than 90% of the time, when the Cubs trade a lottery pick for a middle reliever, it's going to work out in a fashion where the lottery ticket provides no value. It'll suck if Rosario turs out to be a guy, but it's just what happens. Much like De La Cruz for Kittredge; the lottery tickets are mostly fun because you can dream an endless dream on trade-day. But that's really what they are; dreams. I guess think of it this way: if it was just a "sixth round pick" I don't think any of us would have cared.

Tom is going to test them. If Tom can't do it, no one can.

Good news is that DH is easily replaced. And while we may not expect a 110 wRC+ at C, we can probably expect far better production at 3b, the bench, and many of our SPs have helium to beat projections. These things work both ways. On paper it's a team that's likely the 2nd or 3rd best team in the NL. It's a good place.

Keith Law just ranked him a top-50 prospect. It should be noted that Law is stubborn as hell and rarely changes his opinion, has been a high-man in Kevin for years but it doesn't erase his ranking, either. As stated previously, though, people are a little too down on Alcantara. I don't think he's a top-50 guy, but I also find these rankings to be less than useful. He's a good prospect, deserves to get a real shot to play in 2026 and likely will get that shot. Beyond that, the Cubs will still have to plan for the OF, but it's not a super hard position to find. They have plenty of options.

The Cubs are currently slated to have a prospect who has received some form of top-100 hype serve for the last four years as their 4th OF'er this year. The Cubs like view him as the first line. Secondly, the Cubs will still have plenty of money next offseason. They don't need to have a 1:1 internal plan for every position every offseason. They could also resign someone; Ian Happ loves Chicago and being a Cub. An extension shouldn't be ruled out there. And while it seems unlikely Jonathon Long ends up in LF, I don't think you can fully rule that out either. We'll see what they do there this upcoming year.

James Wood has far more control than Abrams or Gore. He's not on the table outside of the most outlandish offers.

Say what you want on Law, but the man is unflinchingly stubborn. In a way I admire it.