Jason Ross

Zac Gallen was the 6th best SP based on fWAR two years ago - we have to be holistic - Savant is awesome but there's a lot of things we should look at. He fell off recently, but that seems to be a shape issue; his velocity has been fine. I've said it before and I'll say it again - Gallen isn't my top-of-the-list guy, but it hasn't been very long since the guy was elite-elite and it seems very possible a good pitching team can snap the fastball shape back through biomechanics and pitch development. From a Cub perspective what Gallen does well is exactly what the Cubs do well in terms of teaching. I'll also say this about Imai and the high-guy here - we don't have to land Imai. There are a bunch of really good SP's the Cubs can get; Imai isn't a savior. He's got a good look to him, but it might not land.

Not really. Imai isn't really a pitch lab guy; he has pitches and I don't think there's a ton to add. Maybe you get a cutter in there, tweak the changeup and keep it developing but he's mostly got the mix down. This is a question of eval. How do you evaluate the reverse slider? What will his fastball do at the MLB level from that arm slot? If you're a strict pitch model team you'll probably hate the slider as modeling as we know it will hate that pitch. His fastball won't be entirely overpowering at 95mph and hasn't been a big whiff pitch. Flip side, the fastball is close to Joe Ryan with extra velo and the slider has great whiff data on it. It's not far off from Yesevage's breaker and it was great in short sample.

From Lance Brodzowski's Substack Email:

I would guess that this puts the Giants out. They have been saying they wouldn't be punching at the top of the SP market for weeks and getting Mahle seems to affirm that.

I'll preface this with saying that I know this is a conspiracy theory and I have nothing to back it up but: I kind of wonder if the Cubs and Boras have a little bit of an agreement here that the Cubs interest in Imai/Okamoto won't really be leaked by Boras in his normal thing and in exchange for that, they're being allowed to be played up for other Boras clients (Gallen, Alonso, Bregman). I have no idea how these things work on the back end, but their interest in some of these guys feels spotty when Imai and Okamoto always felt more likely in terms of fit and finish. And with their posting dates so close, the Cubs could concievably announce both at the same time which would probably cause a pretty major buzz. Like I said, conspiracy theory. It's a tin-foil hat thing that I know remains far-fetched and I don't think it's really what's going down.

Eh, it is what it is. In the end, the off-season isn't the entertainment, so it's whatever for me. They can take as long as they want; I'd rather they not add in artificial deadlines. With NPB players I kind of get it because their teams need to know what's going on if they're leaving. But again, I don't think "want" is the word Id go for. "Has to". These guys have to sign before those days.

Not sure it's always about want. Cease and Alonso have signed. These two just have deadlines and the other two dont. The market is slow.

2nd. Okamoto the 4th. Both are Boras clients.

I'll remain on the record that I think Tatsuya Imai is one of the best SPs on the market. I do think there is some inherent risk in his control and his pitch mix, but I'll remain bummed if he isn't here, regardless. So you wont catch that from me. I've been the high-man here and I'll remain that if he's in Chicago or Philadelphia or wherever.

Bingo. His fastball shape has taken some gut punches recently. Arizona isn't known as a great organization when it comes to pitching, so I wouldn't be shocked to see him regain most of what he was with an organization who is much better in that aspect. He's not on the top of my list at all, but I also can see the arguments for why the Cubs would like him.

Because you aren't consistent in your arguments. You can't say: And: These two this oppose each other. So if I don't understand your point, please explain which of these viewpoints you hold: do you not care about the value of the contract, or do you?

But it seems like you do because you are essentially talking out of both sides of your mouth. You want to say as a "fan" you want the best players, but then you refuse to give the Cubs the benefit of the doubt to choose the best players. You say that you don't think the Cubs are cheap setting a $240m budget, but also don't think the Cubs are going to use the next $35m or so to make an impact signing. You want your cake and to eat it too; these things can't all be true at the same time. It seems very likely you would view Zac Gallen as a "value" signing, but he's likely going to get $20m AAV. I think we both know that no one thinks a $20m pitcher is just some guy; there's a far cheaper way to sign one of those guys. I won't sit here and say I personally would go after Gallen first; I wouldn't. But I also know this; Arizona's pitching development is pretty poor and what Gallen does well (pronator with cut-movement) is exactly what the Cubs specialize in. And if the Cubs think they can get Gallen back to the guy he was in 2022-2023 (which was the 6th best SP in baseball) because of that combination, then it makes sense. That's a needle mover. Only the Cubs know how likely they think it is to get him back to that spot, but I would trust if the Cubs went that route, signing him to a $20m AAV deal, that they very much believe they can do that. What I'm saying is this; let's not doom-boner yet and let's not decide that "value" equates to "not the best" option. The Cubs have been pretty spot on player evaluation - I'm not going to get all down in the dumps even if they don't get Imai. I trust the organization when it comes to player eval, I think a few more of us need to start doing that.

Sure, but you've gotten so wrapped up in it, you've jumped the shark. You've decided that the best player must be the player who is the most expensive, and we have learned multiple times that isn't the case. Dansby Swanson has been far better than Bogaerts and Correa, Matthew Boyd was much better than Walker Buehler, Yusei Kikuchi, and Luis Severino. I'm not going to sit here and defend the Cubs spending habits, but you're teetering on becoming a single-issue-voter where you're more worried that the Cubs spent money on the most expensive player and you're not even concerning yourself with the most important thing; the player. It's cool to point out the Cubs cheap-ness; we should. But we also have to accept that the Cubs do have a budget, and that value does not mean "bad". I'd love it for the Cubs to get irrational once or twice, but you know what I care more about? Winning baseball games, and the Cubs will win baseball games based on player evaluation. So let's move a little beyond the idea that if the Cubs don't sign the guy with the highest salary that it can't count as impactful, needle moving and help the team in baseball games; which ultimately is the goal.

I don't think we should count Okamoto out. The Cubs move incredibly quietly on Japanese players; Sharma and Mooney said they were unlikely to sign Imanaga four days before they did, Suzuki was supposedly inking a deal with SD, and Michael King was going to sign with one of three AL-East teams before he signed with the Padres. The Cubs clearly have interest - we'll see what happens.

I think "impact" move and "needle mover" are subjective. I don't think any one of us thought Matthew Boyd was an "impact" move, but he was great last year; he was 15th in ERA and 18th in fWAR, so looking back on it, Matthew Boyd was an impact move. He was a "value" move but also an "impact" one. And I don't think that was luck, either - he was great with Cleveland when he came back. The Cubs identified him and signed him. We are jumping the shark around here where people seem to just want to see the Cubs spend money more than they do win baseball games. And listen, the team is cheap and I'll scream from the rooftops too that the team should do that, but there have been pockets of Cubs fans across the internet who have decided that now if the Cubs sign Imai and it's not for like $125m than he must not be very good - it has everything to do with the money and not the player. The Cubs are still $40m or so away from the LT. The bulk of money is getting spent somewhere, on something. We all have our preferred impact signing, but I think we have to move past this idea that it has to be some massive contract for it to be impactful. Said another way, if the Chicago Cubs sign Zac Gallen for 3/$60m, they're letting you know they think that's an impactful signing to them. I might have reservations on his fastball shape, I'd rather have Dylan Cease, etc, but the Cubs aren't dropping $20m a year on a guy who's there to eat some innings. And frankly, the Cubs have probably earned the benefit of the doubt a bit, too.

I think there is a lot of doom and gloom across the Cubs landscape right now. They have made needle moving deals every off-season in some fashion. The Cubs are not going to lose Kyle Tucker, off of a 92 win season, with their biggest addition being Phil Maton. I get that people are a little apprehensive that the Cubs are going to sign a $200m deal (I would be too) but they're going to make a needle mover and we don't need to fall that far down the rabbit hole of doom bonering, either.

Roster resource does not have predictions like that. You have to find predictions elsewhere.

Roster resource is great, but you're using it incorrectly. You're using the crowd sourced contracts like they mean something. Use roster resource for actual terms (not Spotrac who is terrible). Here, compare what crowd sourced contracts are compared to what guys got to see how well they're doing this offseason: Dylan Cease - 5/$130m vs 7/$210m Kye Schwarber - 4/$112m - vs 5/$150m Pete Alonso - 4/$105m vs 5/$155m Edwin Diaz got less year but the same AAV. Josh Naylor almost directly on it. Michael King did much better in AAV and got a highly player-friendly contract. Crowd sourcing gets you much lower than what these guys are getting. Using Imai's numbers there is going to put you $20-$50m low on his total. 4/$64m isn't happening. This should tell you that while crowd sourcing can get a temperature, they're not doing well this year. We can't see how much these guys are over performing these numbers, then look at the reported numbers on Imai (which have ranged from around $80m on the low end to $200m on the high end) and think 4/$64m makes sense.

Imai has 3-4 "formal" offers. It's already been clarified, once again, as a translation issue that yes, Imai has had interest. Him having no interest doesn't make sense. Secondly, roster resource is just a crowd sourcing. They had Dylan Cease at 5/$130m. Almost every prediction from every clued in reporter and baseball guy has him well over the $20m AAV. The $200m mark was always the high mark, but no one has had him under $80m and he's not getting Shota money. He might get a somewhat similar(ish) sliding deal, like Greg Zumach suggested where it's 5/$100m with an opt-out after year-3, and the Cubs can then cancel that with a bigger contract, but he ain't getting $16m AAV, either. I'd look at this like most of the other 2nd-tier-ish NPB guys where he's going to get about the same AAV you expected but it'll be quiet on reporting until it just breaks. Even Murakami got the AAV most expected (16-18m) but the years were low because the K's were such a concern. Imai has some funk to his eval, so maybe he doesn't get the 6+ year deal, but I think anything under $20m AAV is not anywhere near it, either. The amount of concern on Imai might drop him from $150m to $100m but it won't drop him to $60m, either.

Yep! Lance Brodkowski just named him one of this top-5 pitching minds in baseball today in a video. Smart guy! The White Sox aren't a great org, but I'd trust anything Bannister said.

Every NPB player has the same % of their total contract posting fee. Murakami's was just under $7m.

Brian Bannister is their pitching director. He's considered one of the best pitching minds in baseball. That isn't accurate. The White Sox are cheap. Bannister is a smart guy.

Just a reminder on the White Sox/Imai stuff; just hours before Seiya Suzuki inked a contract with the Cubs, there were reports out of Japan that he had signed with San Diego. I don't know if the Cubs will or wont sign Tatsuya Imai, but if the Cubs do, it'll probably just drop out of nowhere. That's how Suzuki and Imanaga happened. We probably won't see small articles about them being a finalist like that.

I don't think that's the best way to look at this. Imai is a weird evaluation here. I've posted this article before, but I'll post it again; this article breaks down why teams may be hard-pressed to evaluate him well. Just because you get a great deal doesn't mean what you bought is any better or worse. In fact, if the Cubs get Imai for $90m, we should all rejoice.