Jason Ross

Context would change the math, but generally speaking for napkin math, convert 10 runs to equate one win. Again, context changes things and even if we're going to context neutral most analytics have fancy formulas and things that don't get to a simple 10=1 end point. But if we use that napkin math, you're talking about two wins and a possible rounding error in either direction. Maybe it's a little more, or a little less, but the overall point I'm making: the standings probably aren't very different.

Taillon has looked cooked since Spring Training. He shouldn't be on the roster come Aug 4th.

On one hand I don't like hearing "knee issue" with how reoccurring it is with Maton. On the other hand it at least gives you a reason to believe "fix the knee, fix the pitcher" for at least the second year of his contract.

Jefferson RojasJosiah HartshornJaxon WigginsCade TownsendEthan ConradOwen AyersKane KepleyCaden SorrellKaleb WingJonathon LongMyles BaileyJames TriantosBrooks CapleMason McGwireTy SouthiseneWill SandersGrant KippJuan CabadaDerniche ValdezEli Lovich

Well...to be fair to Ballesteros, through 71 professional PA's, he too was great. He had a 143 wRC+ in 66 PA's last year. So that's just revisionist history. Ramirez is getting curated PA's right now and is very similar to have Mo was used last year who came up, then back down, then back up and then a small run at the end of the year. Ramirez has been toted along on the bench a little more than Ballesteros was originally, but it's not too dissimilar, either. But it's also what we should expect rookies to do: come up and have ups and downs before a level out. They tend to adjust, then the the league re-adjusts to those changes until they'll settle into an equilibrium. Lastly, I wouldn't say it's "likely" he's traded. I think it's certainly possible. But he probably is as likely as Matt Shaw or Jefferson Rojas to be dealt in a larger trade and I highly doubt more than one of them are traded. I think it's more likely than not any three of them are dealt. He's more likely than, say, Josiah Hartshorn to go...but I'd expect him to be on the Cubs next year more than I would expect him to be traded.

Arraez is fun. But I don't even think he's a throw back to before analytics. Dude has a 125 wRC+ this year; he'd be a good player in any era. Ramirez has chased up and in a bit, but it's 71 PA's and chasing up is common. With current bat paths, up in the zone is the place you want t live with your fastballs. So it's kind of just "whatever". Probably don't have enough data on a rookie with 71 PA's either way, most numbers are just beginning to stabilize before we even add in the context of "rookie". But he looks like he belongs at the MLB level in curated PA's so far. And I'll take that. For someone most people thought of as a bottom-of-the-top-10 in a system that looked to be bad in March and starting in Knoxville, to being a top-75 prospect and a guy you like seeing at the MLB level in three months? Massive.

Not really. I like Pedro Ramirez, he makes a lot of contact. His lowest K% above DSL in full season ball is 15.1% against Double-A pitching. Luis Arraez is under 5% this year against MLB pitching and the last time it was above 5% was in 2023. In 71 PA's Ramirez has 10 K's this year. In 416 PA's Luis Arraez has 18. Luis Arraez is an anomaly. There's no comparison other than "they both play 2b". Nico Hoerner has the second lowest K% in baseball and it's over 8%. He's the closest other thing to Arraez around.

Kohl Franklin will be 80 years old and I'll still think "man if he could have one healthy year this dude can really break out"

It's a sprained wrist. Nothing suggests it's chronic. He's very young. They aren't going to take our word for it, obviously a team is going to look at the medicals. But if he's back in a week and a half, or two weeks, or right around the deadline, no team is calling off the trade, either. This isn't like he has a busted elbow as a pitcher. In injury terms, this is a molehill; not a mountain.

Based on recent reporting. Shaw isn't going to be back in a week. He still has soreness in his wrist. It's more likely that he needs the week, then a short rehab stint. I doubt he's back for any significant time before the ASB. With that said, I doubt another team is worried about it if they're goin to trade for him, either.

The Detroit Tigers have won 9 of 11 games and reside in the AL Central. There's a very, very real chance that they're in this thing and I do not believe either Skubal or Mize are on the market today. It's another reason to wait 16 days: Skubal and Mize on the market changes the math across the board. The Cubs see Detroit on Monday and can help sink them. As it pertains to the Giants, I wouldn't presume anything. Buster Posey hasn't really been a very easy read and runs them in a pretty wild fashion. From reports, they aren't entertaining offers on Logan Webb right now. Maybe that's true, maybe it's posturing. Maybe that means you can get him cheaper because Posey is, in my estimation, not great at his job right now. Maybe him being not very good at his job means he'll refuse to trade him. I think the Giants should be sellers, I have no confidence to suggest they believe that right now, however. I know we're all worried they'll fall back on Michael Wacha, but I think we're just doing what fans do and worry. Last deadline was a bummer. Many people on this website went into the offseason like a bunch of wet blankets and while I think the Cubs could have done more, they signed the biggest contract they had signed since Swanson and made a trade for a controlled SP with upside trading a top-50/75 prospect in doing so. This is the same man who traded for Parades at the deadline, went big on Kyle Tucker and while the name isn't as exciting, grabbed the best hitter on the deadline in Candelario a few years ago. There is plenty of track record to suggest the Cubs will put forth a real effort. I understand the reason for pessimism, but I think there's plenty of reason to remain cautiously optimistic as well. From my perspective, I'll save the worry for 17 days from now. I don't know what the Cubs will do, but I think there's a very good chance that worry will be largely wasted and I'll save the energy. And if they stand pat, then I'll throw some anger down on August 4th.

There are lots of things I want today, but I know if that if I wait a better deal very well may come across my desk. Everything, everything is opportunity cost. No team is going to make a decision based on 1-2 starts and that isn't what I'm suggesting. But market dictates price. Right now, who are the defined selling teams? There really aren't many! The Angels, Rockies, Mets, A's, and Royals are probably the five most likely to sell. Which of those teams have controlled pitching? You've got Detmers, Wacha and Holmes with Detmers in a very different tier of "has more than 1 more year of control, is young, and has upside". As of now it's a one-stop-shop if that's what you want. Once the Giants decide they're sellers, once one of the Twins/Tigers decide they're sellers (or both!), if the Jays decide they're sellers, if the Orioles decide they're sellers...you begin adding other shops. Logan Webb and Joe Ryan are likely in the same tier as Detmers in terms of a combination of quality/control. And then you add in different organizations with different wants and evaluations of your prospects... The reality is that while I don't think you're looking at Reid Detmers at super-discount prices, it's a good chance that will added sellers, different options that you find the best deal by allowing the market to get clarity. And the best deal may not end up being Reid Detmers anyways. There isn't a single pitcher that is just so good you pay whatever price is out there right now. Framing it as "well if you don't want me at my most expensive than you can't possibly think I'm any good" is a pretty poor way of reading a market. The Cubs are going to look to get the best deal possible. Waiting two weeks will give them an opportunity to do so. If the Cubs come out of the deadline with another Colin Rea/Jameson Taillon/Javier Assad/Aaron Civale type as the fix to the rotation I think we should all be pretty upset. But there are 16 days to get that to happen and allowing the organization who has an infinitely better read on what the asking prices are than you or I to to negotiate that is the correct course of action. On day 17, then have at it if they balk.

I don't agree with that at all. The same pressure the Cubs have on them to buy will be applied to any team with pitchers who have limited control left and need to sell. On top of that, more teams coming to terms with their current situation (let's say Detroit, SF, SD, Minnesota, etc) can infuse the market with other options. Today the Angels can probably stand very firm knowing that if you want controlled SP from a team it's Reid Detmers or take a hike buddy. When you add in Joe Ryan, Logan Webb and others, the ability for LAA to remain as firm isn't going to be there. The same for rental SPs when you add in someone like Casey Mize to the discussions. None of that says "it's going to get a whole lot cheaper!" But between today and the 3rd the market will become a lot more clear and there's a good chance that the secondary pieces will drop from "cost prohibitive" to "a lot, but acceptable". And that's probably worth waiting it out for two weeks. The two starts the guy you get makes probably isn't worth trading a prospect you really don't want to lose to someone you don't *want* to lose but can swallow it. It's a dance. Patience probably pays off here, but prospect hugging won't.

The Tigers are winning games, but those 9 wins have basically been because of beating up on the As, the Angels, and the Rangers (who are entirely injury ravaged themselves). They dropped 2 of 3 to Philadelphia the only good team in that run. Not entirely disparaging them; they're doing what they are supposed to do against bad teams, but the last series they took against a winning org was in the last week of June against the Yankees and it was their last series win against a team over .500 since mid June if we want to count the Twins (as they could get to .500 today with a win). They probably aren't as big and bad as the 9 of their last 11 thing make it's sound like, either. Cubs are seeing their three worst starters and are good enough to take two games.

I'm fine to wait out a few weeks right now when we consider: 1. The price being asked today 2. The perceived price tomorrow 3. And the opportunity cost of acquiring today versus tomorrow. I'm fine if the prices today are insane and you suspect that over the coming 16 days that extra teams entering the selling market will give you more options (maybe a pitcher you like better) or drive the price down on the guy you like. The difference between two starts of "guy the Cubs have" and "the guy the Cubs want" might not be that massive that it necessitates the price hike. If it's August 4th, the deadline has passed and we're still talking about cost-prohibitive trades? I'll be anything but fine, and likely will be pretty pissed off because you're right, there comes a point when the narrative is old and the Cubs at some point need to take the plunge. It's impossible to know what the asking prices are right now and I'll be patient for 16 days. But it's 16 days and the clock is ticking.

Two things can be true at once: 1. Aaron Civale is a pretty boring acquisition. He's...whatever. He is familiar to the staff and organization, he's a human with a heartbeat and two arms attached and he probably won't be very impactful. 2. Jed Hoyer isn't a bad VP of Ops for grabbing him on July19th. If someone like Reid Detmers was readily available today for a price you'd be okay with paying, he'd have been traded by now. More likely the Angels are holding to a very valuable position as they hold the power; there are very few clear sellers currently and have little reason to lower their price. We don't need to throw a fit every time the Cubs acquire someone less than Tarik Skubal or claim Hoyer is just sleepwalking through the deadline. There's 16 days between today and the deadline; strap in because it won't really heat up for two weeks.

I wouldn't worry. Like, he's not going to be a 130% better than league average for the rest of the year. But part of the reason he slowed down last year was a mechanical issue, but underlying that downturn was an uptick in swing decisions; one that has clearly carried over. All hitters are streaky. This idealistic "consistent hitter" people want does not exist. That said, I'm confident moving forward that Pete Crow-Armstrong is a very, very good hitter. And even when he does slump, he's still the best fielder at any position in baseball and a super baserunner.

Ayers isn't a slam dunk defensive catcher, either. He's a work in progress, and has age working against him. I do think that Ayers makes it more likely the Cubs consider moving him. I don't think it changes the math on Ballesteros' defensive future with the Cubs. His chances to catch for the Cubs moving forward are exactly what they were a week ago, or two months ago.

I enjoy how much everyone from the 2016 team seems to like each other. They're undeniably fun,

He had a 229 wRC+ in his final 54 PA's before the ASB in which he walked 12 times. We can probably let it go more than 6 PA's before we start worrying.

Impressive considering the $1.9m for Bailey. I like the class even more when you consider who they got for underslot so that they could grab the overs.

I mean...the Cubs have had one of baseball's three best offenses (depending on which statistic you'd like to use) since around the middle of June. And on the season have the 5th most runs and 4th best wRC+. This feels, a bit dramatic. Bradley isn't a bad pitcher, and has a sub 3.90 xFIP, but he's given up really loud contact all year, doesn't induce better-than-average whiff and really only has the fastball. This isn't prime-Max Scherzer. Don't you think that it's a bit much to suggest Boyd has to keep the Twins to one run scored?

Jim out here carrying a lot of water for owners this morning: He forgot to check that the MLB has had six winners over the last eight years. Whoopsies.

Hopefully they have enough roster spots and overhead to get me in as a UDFA. Feeling like I'm about to go on a heater starting this Sunday in mens league. Organization has a real need for an 39-year-old outfielder with bad knees in my estimation.

Pat Murphy cryptic about Brandon Woodruff injury. Wouldn't disclose the specifics, is letting Brandon address the media when he wants to. That sounds definitely like a season ender, and possibly worse.