Outshined_One

This is actually the friendliest I've seen them in awhile. I blame the PSD refugees.

I feel like some of you in this thread have been drinking too much. And others haven't been drinking enough.

The list of available players was uninspiring. Birdsell was probably the biggest name on the list, but his recent elbow surgery rightfully spooked teams away.

Correct, although they wouldn't get the international bonus pool money back if they signed a QO guy, My point is that Imai gives them flexibility in the market. If they sign Imai and trade for a bat, they'd go into the next draft with their picks intact (along with an extra pick) and also would have the full international bonus pool at their disposal. Alternatively, they could sign Imai and Bregman (I know, I know, PTR) and only get hit with the QO penalty once. I'm also not particularly thrilled with the state of the farm below AAA or with the state of pitching on the farm in general, so I'm wondering if there might be a priority placed on building up the farm next year in advance of the upcoming lockout. Losing picks and bonus pool money would undercut those efforts.

Imai also makes a ton of sense as a guy who won't cost the Cubs QO compensation in the same way King would. If they want to pursue Bregman and King (I know, I know), they'd have to fork over their 2026 2nd and 3rd round picks and $1m from the international bonus pool, and I just get the sense that they're trying to shore up the lower levels of the farm since things don't look super great below AAA. Imai at least gives them some flexibility without having to strip mine the farm.

I think a fair question is what Shaw's trade value actually *is* this offseason. If you think "skipping town in the middle of a playoff race to attend GOP Woodstock" was a blip, there's something to be said for him being one of the most valuable young trade pieces currently on the market as a plus defender at 2B/3B with upside at the plate and six years of team control. I think a reasonable outcome for his 2026 season has him around 3 fWAR, which would make him a Top 10 3B in baseball. It's not unreasonable to predict him putting up a few 4+ fWAR seasons during that six years of control. However, if you think he's closer to the hitter we saw the first half of the season in 2025 and that he's exhibited poor judgment that calls into question his commitment to baseball and also sets him up as a potential PR nightmare if he ends up on the wrong podcasts, then that's another story. It's an interesting question. As far as Gore goes, the fact that I'd give serious thought to a one for one swap with the Nats for Shaw tells me (based on my personal biases) that a more likely package would probably be something in the neighborhood of Shaw + B-level prospect for Gore, which wouldn't exactly excite me.

Howard seemed to be on the verge of a breakout when he had a freak hip injury in 2022. High school SS prospects are basically lottery tickets as is, and he was drafted in a COVID year (2021) on top of everything else, so I wouldn't read too much into it beyond bad luck. To their credit, the Cubs have actually had a really good run of 1st round picks going back to 2012, with only Ryan Jensen (2019) and Ed Howard (2021) never making the majors, and even then, Howard could still make it some day. Additionally, once you get into the second round and beyond, the hit rate for draftees overall basically falls off a cliff. Just look at the draft positions for the Top 100 MLB prospects who were drafted; most of them were first rounders.

I strongly disagree with this statement. Shaw was a consensus top 15-30 prospect in baseball coming out of the 2024 season with a 144 wRC+ across AA and AAA in his age 22 season. Caissie featured a 139 wRC+ at AAA in his age 22 season and Ballesteros had a 121 wRC+ in AAA in his age 21 season. Shaw also had the added benefit of being a plus defender at an infield position, which neither has. This isn't to say that Caissie or Ballesteros won't be better hitters than Shaw in the majors over the course of all their careers, but it is a reminder that Shaw was a premium prospect at this time last year with a really good offensive and defensive profile. Caissie and Ballesteros could easily see similar struggles as Shaw did this past season, if not worse, in 2026. Whether penciling Caissie and/or Ballesteros into starting roles in 2026 is a good idea is a post all of its own, but I would not use their projected value as a basis for how Shaw should be used in 2026. That said, while I've been slightly in favor of trading Shaw, if the Cubs end up keeping him, he's a pretty good bet to end up around the 3 fWAR range, which would make him a Top 10 3B in baseball. You can upgrade from him, but the position is basically a wasteland across the league and the options to do so are pretty much limited to Bregman, Bichette, and Suarez (unless you believe in one of the Japanese imports). Shaw's easily a starter on most teams. However, even if Shaw is the everyday starter, he's going to need days off and injuries are always a possibility. BJ Murray is pretty much the only person on the farm who *could* man the bench role, but his ceiling is limited and he needs more development. There's currently no one on the roster who seems like they could be a competent backup, either. Someone like Paul DeJong seems to make sense as someone who can handle 3B with a bit of pop, but yeah, this is a really thin crop if you're hunting for bench candidates.

On the one hand, the market for relief pitching is a bit ludicrous at the moment. On the other hand, damnit Cubs, do something.

This FO is fantastic at scouting relief pitchers so long as those pitchers never played for the Astros.

I misread it at first too, but he said Phil, i.e. Philadelphia.

Great job, now he'll visit the Springfield Mystery Spot and will never be seen again.

Yet.

Gotta admit, your slow turn into "somewhat optimistic Bears poster" has been one of the pleasant surprises of the season.

Thank you all for proving my point. Let's not take this into putting people into timeout territory, shall we? Enough with the personal attacks.

I hate slow stretches of the offseason. The sniping and mindless arguing are almost as bad around here as it is during losing streaks.

I admittedly have to disagree. And this coming from someone who pooh-poohed the pick when it was made. My issue with Kepley was his draft profile was an OF who was heavily reliant on contact and speed. However, he showed enough in-game power in his major league debut to suggest he might be more than another Brett Bateman. I can buy him as a Top 5 guy in this organization.

Stuff, consistency, and durability. He's pitched 160+ IP each season since 2021 and posted 3+ fWAR in each of those seasons. I think it's best to think about Cease like Jon Lester when he was signed to a six year deal going into the 2015 season. The hope was that his production in the first half of the contract would offset the decline in the back half of his deal, and Lester delivered that in spades, even though he started to decline in 2017 and was next to worthless at the end of the deal. You're pretty much banking on a comparable result with Cease, with the added benefit of Cease is a bit younger than Lester was in 2015.

The problem with that presumption is that Taillon is performing well enough to merit a team in contention giving up assets to acquire him. If Taillon is good enough to merit trade interest, I don't think the Cubs will want to trade him, especially given how injuries to the rotation sunk the team going into the playoffs.

I kinda like it and kinda hate it. On the one hand, he's a guy with a year of control and the price tag is seemingly not outrageous, so the risk is relatively low. He's over two years out from TJS and he's apparently fully recovered from his shoulder injury, plus he seems like a bounceback candidate in 2026 for his contract year. Alcantara feels like a slight overpay, but not to the point where I'd immediately say no. On the other hand, shoulder injuries are always messy and he's never pitched more than 150 IP in a season going back to his minors days. This team is going to have a bunch of guys with checkered injury histories in the rotation over the course of 2026 (Horton, Boyd, Wiggins, Steele) and I feel like adding another to that mix wouldn't be the best idea, especially if the Cubs think he's the TOR guy they need. Put another way, if you told me the Cubs would walk away from this offseason with Bubic/Cease, Bubic/Imai, or even Bubic/King, I'd do this deal. If it's instead something like Bubic/Woodruff, I'd be disappointed.

Me reading the lineup: Me reading the rotation:

I get the sense we'll see Caissie/Alcantara traded in the offseason. PCA and Happ are locks for next season and I think the Cubs will want to keep Seiya around, so my guess is the Cubs will sniff around for a corner OF after Tucker makes it clear he's going elsewhere. Maybe Taylor Ward or Jo Adell? They could also go dumpster diving for someone like Refsnyder if they want to take that approach.

The reason I don't think the Cubs will go into Opening Day with Caissie or Alcantara as a starter is this exact uncertainty. Put another way, does anyone here think Caissie or Alcantara will outperform Happ or Suzuki in terms of WAR in 2026, or 2027, for that matter?

Oh, come on.

We'd noticed that there had been duplicate threads in transactions and the main forum, particularly at the deadline, and the decision was made to merge the two to make life easier for everyone so you wouldn't have to jump back and forth between threads or figure out where a new topic belonged. As far as I can tell, you're the first person to notice this!