UMFan83

Doing some more math on why 2-2 gives us overwhelming odds to make the playoffs. 1) Like I mentioned before, 4 teams fighting for 3 PO spots (GB, DET, SF, CHI for NFC North and 2 WC spots) 2) Bears play all 3 of those teams, meaning that if they go 2-2 they have beaten at least one of them 3) If the Bears beat CLE and DET, the Lions would have won win their 3 remaining games (@ LAR, PIT, @ MIN) to tie the Bears, and it comes down to tiebreakers 4) If the Bears beat CLE and SF, the Bears would own the H2H tiebreaker over SF, meaning SF would have to win its 3 remaining games (TEN, @ IND, SEA) to pass the Bears. Easier schedule but still 5) If the Bears beat CLE and GB, there's a little more doubt since they lose the H2H to SF and DET, meaning SF could go 1-2 and pass the Bears, the Lions 2-1 and pass the Bears and the Packers 2-1 to pass the Bears. But thats still 3 things that have to happen against the Bears 6) If the Bears lose to CLE and beat 2 of the other 3 teams, they're not locks but they've put themselves in a position where either DET and SF need to win out, or one needs to win out and the Packers need to go 2-1 to be left out. There are plenty of other scenarios to consider like 3 or 4 team tiebreakers, a slide by the Seahawks or Rams bringing them into the mix (though I think we established last week that we cannot tie the Seahawks and Rams without also winning the tiebreaker over both), but for 2 team tiebreakers thats how it looks.

Honestly I don't think it's a big deal. They had 2 TOs and were going to be goal to go if they got 3 yards on that 4th down play with about 30 seconds left. Maybe 1 TO if they're tackled in bounds. Let's say they get out of bounds though because the play they called was a boot towards the sidelines. His options were: 1) Caleb runs out of bounds for a 1st, 2) Caleb throws a TD to Kmet, 3) Caleb somehow sees DJ leaking open and hits them for either a TD or stopped inside the 5 yard line. Option 1 allows the Bears to do everything except maybe run 4 straight times, but if they're at the 10 yard line they probably aren't calling 4 runs. But even 4 straight runs is possible: 1st run - TO, 2nd run - TO, 3rd run - clock is under 20 seconds and running but they've likely drawn up their 4th down play in the previous TO. Option 2 gives the Packers the ball back either tied or down 1 (Ben said they were going for 2 if they scored so likely the latter) with 25 seconds left and I believe 3 TOs for the Packers. The way Love can get chunk yards with 50/50 balls at an elite level suggests that 25 seconds is the minimum time to leave the Packers to make the clock a factor in whether they get into FG range. Option 3 gives the Bears a 1st and goal inside the 5 and likely 1 TO. This is the most limiting option but even then they have enough time to run multiple times if they choose to. Maybe even 3 times if the 1st or 2nd down play gets them inside the 1 (aka run on 3rd down, stopped short, rush to the line and try a sneak). The biggest factor to me is that, like I mentioned, Love is elite at getting chunk plays downfield. It takes maybe 2 of those plays to get into FG range. Do you really want to leave him over a minute and 3 TOs to basically have everything available to them? Edit: Now that I think about it, the Packers called a TO right before 4th down so I guess, they had 2 TOs left. My bad

I think its been said before that a major focus for Ben this year is having Caleb learn the offense and run it the way he wants it run. Also, he probably wants to optimize how to use Caleb properly. Things like footwork and mechanics are a work in progress. You can see how crappy his footwork is when you watch him throw errant passes. It needs to be worked on and probably should have always expected some issues with Ben wanting Caleb to primarily drop back from under center for the first time in his career. I don't see Caleb staring down open receivers most of the time. I don't see him unwilling or unable to make progressions. I don't see him waiting too long to throw a pass because the WR isn't open yet (aka throwing with anticipation). He's not always making the right read, but he is way more often than his detractors are giving him credit for. He's got some stuff to work on but IMO the mental side of being a franchise QB is coming along nicely and is by far the more important thing for Caleb to show this year. More importantly, he has an offensive guru that understands Calebs strengths as a QB and is building an offense to maximize those strengths. He might not ever have 70% completion percentage but I think when your QB is often breaking the pocket and throwing on the run, it's going to be trading off completion percentage for chunky plays downfield.

Meh, they just lost at home to the worst team in the NFL. You are right, they do have a good defense, though banged up I believe. They can be run on too. Sanders looked capable yesterday but again you have to consider the competition. I think they also lost their starting C for the season yesterday. They have some parts you worry about but as a whole I don't think the Bears should be terribly threatened by playing the Browns at home.

Maybe...depends on who the 2 wins are against. We're in a unique situation where we play all 3 of the teams we're somewhat competing for a playoff spot with in the last 4 games. We're currently 0.5 GB one of them, tied with another, and a game ahead of the 3rd team. FWIW not sure how accurate this site is but, it gives the following playoff odds based on the number of remaining Bears wins: 0-4: 0% 1-3: 29% 2-2: 91% 3-1: 99.9% 4-0: 100% No way they can make it at 9-8 at this point since they'd be be giving 10th wins to the Packers and 49ers and 9th win and the tiebreaker to the Lions.

The idea in my mind was always splitting with GB would allow us to control our North destiny (provided they win in Cleveland or GB loses next week). The Chicago game was always going to be the more likely game to win. We still control our destiny for everything but the bye. We're in fine shape, but still need 2 more wins to feel any sort of safety about our playoff destiny. Also for those worried about missing the playoffs altogether, the Lions schedule is no cakewalk. 3 of their last 4 on the road: @LAR (if the Bears win next week, that result is positive for us regardless), vs. PIT (clinging to the playoffs), @ MIN (still a strong D and looked feisty today) and @ the Bears. If the Bears only win 1 of their next 3, there's still a decent chance that the last game against Detroit is a win and in scenario. The Panthers/Bucs divisional loser are the only other teams really in the mix at 7-6 but they'd need a miracle to be alive for a wild card come Week 18 at this point. So at this point it's 6 teams for 5 spots. The Rams and Seahawks seem fairly safe, so maybe more like 4 teams for 3 spots (GB, SF, CHI, DET). Bears still have a chance to win the tiebreaker over the 49ers. I'm not sure if they can win the tiebreaker over the Lions at this point. H2H: 0-1 (with 1 to play) Div: Both teams 1-3 Common opponents: Both teams 6-4 The Bears would have to go 2-1, with their loss to the 49ers with the Lions going 2-1 with their loss to the Rams in order to still be tied in divisional record and common opponents. But if that happens, the Lions are 1 GB the Bears heading into Week 18, meaning they'd have to beat the Bears to tie them, thus winning the H2H. Better to assume that the Bears need to finish ahead of the Lions (or beat the 49ers and tie with them) Sorry I turned this into a rambling, just working out the scenarios in my head as I type it out.

They ran the first play, IIRC Caleb missed an open receiver on 2nd down leading to a 3rd and medium, a throw is understandable. On the second drive, he completed a nice pass to Loveland but had had it ripped away leading to 2nd and 10. He then missed an open receiver on a medium route, leading to 3rd and long. I think it was more game script than anything else. They were pretty run heavy much of the rest of the game.

What are the odds that we’re looking at Week 18 SNF against the Lions for a playoff spot?

Caleb continues to be so perplexing. He can go from looking nearly unplayable to making elite play after elite play in an instant. His talent is so tantalizing and his issues seem fixable but at the same time we have yet to see him play a truly elite game from start to finish outside of maybe Dallas this year and Jacksonville last year.

I have a feeling this might be the end of P4 conference championship games, or at least them counting in the playoff rankings. If the ACC misses out, Bama misses out, BYU misses out, etc because of conference championship game losses its going to cause a lot of discussion.

The sad thing is, they were one of the premier brands in professional sports and they completely squandered it. Even if they get good again we are like 3 generations removed from Jordan and most people under 40 have no recollection of him on the Bulls.

Otherwise known as a ‘source’? 😂

Based on that simulator site I linked to earlier, 99% of the simulations I've run have 4 points enough to advance to the knockout rounds and most sims have at least 1-2 teams with 3 points advance. Who knows if it will play out like that in real life but it seems like a win and a draw should be enough to squeak in but even more than previous WCs, there's a bigger advantage to winning your group since you will likely play a mediocre 3rd place team in the round of 32

Toughest of the playoff groups by ELO

USA vs Paraguay in our first match. And now we get a UEFA playoff team right? Not good.

Not ideal but it guarantees they draw one of the minnows in pot 4 right

Australia!

entertaining but I refuse to give him any credit especially after an hour of shamelessly glazing him.

He already had to be escorted to his drawing spot because he seemed to be wandering aimlessly.

Omg I can’t watch this FIFA/Trump disgusting slobberfest. Just get to the horsefeathers draw

Playing around with this draw and tourney simulator with the WC draw tomorrow: https://worldcupsimulator.com/tournament.html?autoSimulate=true Best I could do for the US is have them win a group with Italy, Switzerland and Saudi Arabia, then beat Algeria 3-2, Belgium 2-1, Netherlands 3-1 before falling to Argentina 1-0 in the semis.

As little credit as I give AKME this seems like a 'we're breaking up with you' type of message. There's no way Giannis, who wants to leave Milwaukee because they're not a contender, is going to want to come to the Bulls in their current state and current reputation. Furthermore, Chicago is one of the last places Milwaukee would want to trade him if they do trade him. It's just not going to happen regardless, so AKME floats that out there as a way to publicly support his ****** core.

I would say 1970-1991 was a fairly rough period for them. Maybe not complete incompetence but they only made the playoffs twice, had 4 winning seasons and never had a long term QB solution. Of course most of us weren't alive or were kids during this era so we didn't get to experience most of it. But I do remember the Packers being a meh organization when I started watching football as Favre was just getting there.

Yeah we will enter Week 14 as the number 1 seed in the NFC but a Bears loss, Seahawks win over Atlanta and Rams win over Arizona and the Bears drop to the 7 seed.

It's super disappointing that I didn't really see any development or improvement from Bryce all season. You can plainly see the talent that's there, but for whatever reason he hasn't been able to take advantage of it. Hopefully another offseason will make a difference.