OK, where do the experts show him going in the draft exactly? The "experts" have no idea where anyone will get drafted at this point of the year and the good ones don't make deep projections because they know that. If he leaves, he'll be drafted by round 4 at the latest where he's an extremely safe bet to make the team. And because he's 23, obviously isn't a big fan of being a student and has little to gain next year by coming back, he will (should) likely enter. Barring extreme circumstance, I don't understand why you'd recommend a 4th rounder leave early.