Tryptamine
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Everything posted by Tryptamine
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3 years at 14 per? Sign me up. Not that that will do it, realistically. If he can be had for 3/42 and we don't do it then I'm going to be a bit disappointed.
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This is exactly why a deal hasn't been done. Asking for Baez and two more top prospects for Odorizzi was absurd. However, now with such a traffic jam of talent they're going to have to get more realistic if they want to keep from wasting their value.
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We have limited assets as is, the ones we have need to be used for strong rotational pieces so that we can fill the gaps we're faced with in 2018. Obviously Candelario isn't headlining anything but I don't see why can can't be a secondary piece for an Odorizzi, Robbie Ray, etc. Honestly don't see a huge gap between those two names and what Wisler can offer those future rotations. I like Ray too, but all strike me as ceiling ~4 starters in a first division rotation. The ability to option him in 2017 is a huge plus in Wisler's favor or some other similar young arm. Why is it a bonus? I'd prefer push Montgomery to the pen so only one lefty spot needs to be filled, Brett Cecil I'm talking about you.
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I suggested Soler/Candelario/Clifton for Odorizzi and Colome a while ago. I think that's quite fair. Ken Giles alone netted Velasquez, Oberholtzer, Eshelman, Mark Appel, and Harold Arauz I think people are vastly underestimating the market for Colome. It was immediately seen as a terrible deal. Just because someone gets raked over the coals doesn't make that the new market going rate. VV by himself would net more than Giles now.
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Hand to the fire I probably accept it, but it's a max offer for me and I acknowledge that I overpaid a little to really strengthen the chance to win in 2017-2018.
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I honestly keep wondering if we're destined to deal with the Rays. Something has to give on their glut of starters. Would something like Soler, Jeimer and one of Sands/Stinnett/Kellogg be not enough for Colome and one of Odorizzi/Smyly/Andriese? I suggested Soler/Candelario/Clifton for Odorizzi and Colome a while ago. I think that's quite fair.
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I just don't see it with Wisler. Never been a high K rate guy, sub 6 in the MLB,control in the minors was good but that hasn't carried over to the majors. Velocity is down .5mph from 2015 to 2016 where it sits at 92.5. He gave up 36.7% hard hit balls while his swinging strike rate was 9% and his contact rate in the zone was 90.8%. That all sounds to me like a guy who has to nibble because his stuff isn't good enough to beat major league hitters in the zone. To be clear, the idea here is that Wisler is treated as the 6th starter at best, which really you can't hope to do more than if you're only giving up Candelario, a Top 100ish prospect that's hard-blocked at the MLB level anyway. But Wisler is a strike thrower with pedigree, can be optioned, and wouldn't cost significant assets, which makes him appealing enough as an effort to add rotation depth. We have limited assets as is, the ones we have need to be used for strong rotational pieces so that we can fill the gaps we're faced with in 2018. Obviously Candelario isn't headlining anything but I don't see why can can't be a secondary piece for an Odorizzi, Robbie Ray, etc.
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I just don't see it with Wisler. Never been a high K rate guy, sub 6 in the MLB,control in the minors was good but that hasn't carried over to the majors. Velocity is down .5mph from 2015 to 2016 where it sits at 92.5. He gave up 36.7% hard hit balls while his swinging strike rate was 9% and his contact rate in the zone was 90.8%. That all sounds to me like a guy who has to nibble because his stuff isn't good enough to beat major league hitters in the zone.
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So we now have Dickey,Colon,Teheran,Blair,Foltynewicz,Wisler,Gant and Perez all fighting it out for 5 spots. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Teheran is on the move.
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Doesn't sound like they're going to be doing any kind of FA spending this season as they spent all their money last offseason knowing this offseason would be weak. http://www.csnchicago.com/chicago-cubs/why-cubs-arent-planning-another-free-agent-extravaganza-winter
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Seriously. No takebacks. so 17M and the loss of a first round pick for a guy who is going to throw 65 innings. Yeah, not even remotely interested. I'd much rather the farm be used, outside of Eloy, to grab a young closer. Save the excessive spending for Otani or whoever else they need to fill the rotation in 2018.
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Very slick under the radar move. It will ease the blow a bit when Gleyber becomes a star. he won't Gleyber never struck me as a guy who would become a super star. I viewed him more as a solid fairly safe bet to be a guy who annually gives you 2.5-3fWAR and in his prime maybe touches 4. He really doesn't have any stand out tools. I don't think his ceiling sniffs Russell or Baez at all.
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My guess is the Cubs would take him back at 2 or maybe even 3 years. I think it's the 4th year and beyond that they'd have no interest in.
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I hope Dex had a good enough season that he doesn't get screwed by the QO process again if the Cubs choose not to re-sign him. If he can't get paid after a 4.7fWAR season in only 120ish games then something is very very broken in the system both rules wise and talent evaluation wise.
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Cubs decline Hammel's option
Tryptamine replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Different levels of compensation picks went away in the last CBA. If you give someone a qualifying offer(this year it's 1/17) and they sign elsewhere, you get a pick after the first round. Chapman isn't eligible to receive a qualifying offer because he was traded midseason, and Hammel won't be given a qualifying offer because he'd accept, so the Cubs will get one pick for Fowler signing elsewhere. thanks TT appreciate the clarification. (and Raisin) Haven't followed the minors at all this year with a family member in the hospital. Does this pretty much spell the end of Pierce Johnson, Duane Underwood and Ryan Williams as possible #5 next year? Were they really that bad? Pierce is pretty much a reliever now, Underwood continues to vastly underpeform his stuff and Williams was hurt all year. Regardless, these aren't the type of arms you experiment with on a World Series contending squad. -
Color me very surprised. The farm could use a nice influx of talent. I'd much rather keep Dex than add a 1st round supplemental pick. As would I, but some team is going to throw something like 4/70 or 5/80 at him and I'm no longer interested at those prices. Not when 40% of the 2018 rotation needs to be addressed along with numerous 2017 bullpen holes.
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Color me very surprised. The farm could use a nice influx of talent. You're surprised they offered Fowler a QO? They did last year and then he was even better in 2016. I'm surprised because there were rumors that there was an under the table agreement not to give Dex a QO this time after it seemed to hurt him so much in 2015 FA. Based solely on his talent he's a no brainer to throw a QO at.
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Color me very surprised. The farm could use a nice influx of talent.
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I was going to throw together something just shits and giggles but damn even the top 10 is going to be hard to put together this year without really going over somethings. The only slot you can't argue is #1.
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I say making a move for another starter this offseason is a must simply because it's too hard to fill multiple holes in the rotation in one offseason. As of right now 2018 is looking like this rotation wise Lester,Hendricks,Montgomery. I'd like to add a starter via trade this off season, keep Montgomery in the pen and then in 2018 when Arrieta,Hammel and Lackey have all left, insert Montgomery into the rotation.
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4/60 is about as high as I'd be willing to go, that 5th year would definitely be a deal breaker for me. With that said, I wouldn't at all be surprised if Dex lands in any of BAL,NYM or STL.
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I wouldn't mind seeing something like this and it should leave lots of money available for 2018 and 2019 FA or extending Bryant,Russell, etc. Gone: Fowler,Ross,Chapman,Wood,Cahill,Coghlan Trade Jorge Soler+Jeimer Candelario+Trevor Clifton for Jake Odorizzi(3Y) and Alex Colome(4Y) Sign Brett Cecil 3/12 Sign Carlos Gomez 2/24 (Gambling on that he's more the Gomez from TOR and MIL than he was in HOU) Trade Jason Hammel to Baltimore for Cody Sedlock(UofI kid with a good chance to be a middle of the rotation guy one day) C:Contreras 1B:Rizzo 2B:Zobrist 3B:Bryant SS:Russell RF:Heyward CF: C.Gomez LF:Schwarber Bench: Baez,Almora,Szczur,Lastella,Montero SP: Lester,Hendricks,Jake,Odorizzi,Lackey(Zastryzyny in AAA in case of short term injury) BP:Colome,Rondon,Strop,Montgomery,Edwards,Cecil,Grimm 2018SP: Lester,Hendricks,Odorizzi,Montgomery,(FA)
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As of right now I'm not sure you can trade Hammel simply based on rotation depth. Zastryzny was good in a small sample size but I don't want him pitching a full season if someone goes down long term.
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So they have until Monday to offer Fowler a QO. I'm not sure how the option stuff works with deadlines, but I imagine it's similar. Wasn't the rumor back when Dex signed that there was an under the table agreement that the Cubs wouldn't make him a QO in order to allow him to get a better contract? I know it breaks MLB rules, but there was more than one person who insinuated that was the case.
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Completely and totally emotionally spent. Shed some tears, shared some laughs, and even now less than 5 hours after the Cubs first WS victory in 108 years all I can think about is how much I'm looking forward to 2017. Thanks Cubs, it may have taken 10 years off my life, but it was a hell of a night to remember.