But that means paying the buyout plus risking the arbitration money. You wouldn't take that risk if he ends up with 20+ hr this year? You know he'll have a decent BA, walk enough that the OBP is at least passable. If he ends up with 20+HR, he may be the third best position player on the market this coming offseason. Not to mention that he'd be a good bet to earn his $15M next year. Oh...the buyout doesn't factor into the calculation at all. That's going to be there one way or another. Unless you're suggesting it may be better to pick up the option if he finishes the year strongly. That is the suggestion. If you pay the buyout then offer arbitration and you somehow take 20% off this year's salary, you are paying $13.7m, so profit! But if you pay the $2m and just pay him the same salary as this year, it's a loss. Maybe you absorb that loss in hopes of getting those picks. Either way, if he has any sort of recovery, you don't cut him and let walk without arbitration.