Seems like an odd way to value a player. I understand the logic of it, but I would guess it's pretty rare for any player to bring back a pick as high as the one he was taken with. If a player is getting traded, there's usually a good reason why he doesn't get similar value. Cutler, ironically, is a rare exception of a top 15 pick getting a top 15 pick + in return. I'm not sure why you are trying to characterize trades the way you are. Trades in general are rare in the NFL. There's a couple different reasons for them. A) A team doesn't want the guy so they move him to another team, or B) A player outperforms expectations but the team that has him has another guy in place and so they trade him to a team that can use him. This often happens with QBs, like Cassel and Kolb. And on occasion, a team doesn't have interest in signing an extension to a star player and they move him for pretty high value, like Richard Seymour. All of those guys were traded for value at or above where they were taken. If a player is taken in the 1st round, then gets traded 5 years later for a 3rd round pick, his team was trying to get rid of him and he didn't live up to his 1st round status.