Mephistopheles

ill be damned if i am going to read it this is posted, but apparently gammons is reporting that boras is demanding 18-20 million on espn insider. I dont have the service, but thats what someone told me.

I'm not really making an argument, just an observation. I don't usually mke an argument here that often, save the Soriano thread. The time for me to complain about signing Mark DeRosa has come and gone. Now I can complain about sunk costs and still keeping him there.

I'm really not sure what you're trying to say with that. Are you saying we should look only at DeRosa's career numbers because the difference between splits for a right-handed hitter, however large, is probably co-incidential (as righties that can't hit righties are rooted out in the minors)? sort of - i was saying he probably isnt as good against lefties as his splits suggest.

Brad Wilkerson's left-handed bat and ability to play center interests me a lot more than Mench, though the Cubs have been connected to Mench in the past.

Heh, iirc data suggests that right handed platoon splits really aren't sustainable or are insignificant, though in DeRosa's case it would work in the other direction where he starts to hit worse against lefties and stays the same against righties. I guess the best rational justification of that argument is that all of the righties who can't hit righties get weeded out in the minors since there are so many righties and the lefties who can't hit southpaws survive because of the low concentration of left-handed talent.

they still have to have 6 years of ML service time after the contract they sign runs out. That happened to Wade Miller with the sox, although they nontendered him afterwards.

theyve been trying to trade him i believe. they dont want him. you would think someone would take him though. He took his plate D to the insane level after april last season, in the second half alone he hit .234/.411/.369. At one 1.5 month stretch he had an OBP over 400 and an BA under 200. That said, god I'd love to have him.

didnt he have labrum surgery?

I want Omar Infante to be our new shortstop please. He's not good, but he's a hell of a lot better than Cesar Izturis and has been a league average hitter or better 2 of the last three years. His .248 career EqA doesn't look like much, but compared to the .225 career mark of Izturis it looks awesome and is probably an equivalent of 15 runs over Izturis offensively and 25 runs over what we got out of our shortstops last season. I would have much rather had Joel Pineiro than Jason Marquis, but oh well. There are some nice bench options there though. Infante please - though i doubt he gets nontendered.

baseball is serious business. Even fans get shot over it.

Jim Hendry won't go after him. Which sucks.

I don't see why we don't inquire about Coco Crisp. If Manny isn't getting close to going anywhere they have JD Drew, Coco Crisp, Wily Mo Pena and Manny. I am sure we can work out something for Crisp or Pena involving relief pitching. The last time I checked they still don't have a closer and their primary target is always hurt and wants the moon, Gagne.

Theriot and/or DeRosa and/or Cedeno could spell there for a start or two. If Ramirez is going to miss a few games the Cubs will probably call up Scott Moore

Dominating the Japanese Leagues and dominating the Pac 10 or ACC are two entirely different things.

blantons like the american league equivalent of jason marquis.

hmm injury related? he allowed a homer in the first and then two hits to lead off the second and removed him? Maybe he was on a pitch count, but I find that highly unlikely considering he didnt walk anyone and only struck out one and he pitched four innings or so last time iirc.

1. Guzman. In the past - visually speaking - he has shown plus command, plus velocity on his fastball with a borderline plus breaking ball and a plus changeup. The biggest detriment to his development has been health. He pitched like 80 innings in 2005 and 2004 combined (that includes ST, and winter ball) and then basically went from AA in 2003 to the majors and AAA in 2006 while missing two years in between for all intent and purposes. It was fairly obvious that he didnt have the consistency on all of his pitches and command last season with the Cubs, though his changeup really came around the second half of the season. This year if he can keep of the injury bug he's got a good chance of being better than Jason Marquis by May and better than Lilly by the end of the season. Statistically speaking he's shown above average command with above average k rates and so-so GB rates. That translates pretty well and is definitely with his stuff recipe for a potential number two starter. He hasn't shown the dominant minor league K rate his stuff would lead you to believe, and that's likely going to carry over to the majors. 2. Marshall He's a lefty with three average pitches and those kinds of pitchers last a long time albeit not very productively. Now if he can get his FB in the 90s like it was before the finger injury AND if he could get his splitter back before the finger injury he might be equal to Guzman, but neither of those are happening. 3. Marmol. Bullpen. He's a better version of Novoa to me.

Hendry's had a thing for Hill for the last two seasons. He's not going to sign someone to take his spot after Hill was our most reliable starter for two-thirds of the season. And by reliable I mean the best lefty in the league.

and ZiPS projected Rich Hill with a 3.65 ERA. Dunno about PECOTA. Of course we're not expecting Hill to have a 2.55 or whatever his ERA was the last two months of the season, but I think it's fairly clear that he turned the corner and it's not unreasonable to expect him to pitch very well next season. Still his September numbers were pretty close to what he did in triple a 10.7 K/9 vs 12.1 K/9 2.1 BB/9 vs 1.9 BB/9 1.98 ERA vs 1.80 ERA I'd be surprised if Hills ERA was over 4.00 next season and I don't expect anyone outside of Zambrano on the Cubs to do that for 160 innings. Hendry's held Hill at high regard for the last two seasons and he's not going to sign someone to take his spot after he became our best pitcher for a third of the season. He's not that stupid.

Glad to have you on board. Whether I agree or disagree with your argument you always have an encyclopedia of stats to back it. Now give me the juicy numbers on why Marquis sucks, so I can use that in addtition to my "melodramatic posts" 8-) I'll just quote mitchell lichtman at btf. he works for the cardinals (at least i think he still does)

jim hendry likes the signing. i just can't wait to hear what crap he uses to justify it. It's gotta be the 4.33 ERA during day games. Gotta be! Jim's such a forward thinker. Anyways, I hate the signing. I'd rather have Guzman in the rotation than Marquis. If Guzman is a total bust I would like to think his ERA would be a hair of five. Even if he gets hurt Sean Marshall would probably put up an ERA around five. My point is given their seasoning last year and the fact that Marshall and Guzman had their moments last season I would expect them to have 5.00 ERA or so at the minimum (especially in Gooz's case). Say we expect a 4.50 ERA from Marquis, which is fairly optimistic given his HR rates and moving to Wrigley, then the difference between Guzman as a bust with a five plus ERA is 10 runs or so over the course of the season, maybe even less when you consider that we have a very deep and talented bullpen. So in my opinion we're paying 7 million for 10 runs or so. On top of that there's also a fairly high chance that Guzman gets his act together and develops into an average to above average starter at some point in the season. He really had his changeup come on the last half of the season. He was clearly rusty and showed the talent to be a good starter in the league. Buy signing a marginal starter you take away those chances, so yeah this is stupid. Seven million for 10 runs. Awesome. To be fair, Marquis 06 ERA was inflated by two starts where he gave up 25 runs in 10 innings. Take those out and and he's a not so bad 5.12.

is hendry trying convert everyone away from being cub fans...

except hamilton might just have the best tools in the history of the rule five draft, santana and clemente included. the reds dont have the logjam in the OF and he had knee surgery - meaning he could be on the DL for some of the season while the Reds arent going anywhere.

the cubs shouldnt even let him get non-tendered.

he had a decent era last season - not that that means anything. And he shut out the red sox once. so he has talent. it wouldnt be a terrible move