Mephistopheles

Except that OPS undervalues OBP.

LD% isnt really much of a stat for a pitcher. There's slight correlation for the uber elite GB pitchers.

It's not even nine innings.

its probably time to split this up to a HS watch..but anyways.. From a CSTV release on the Diamond Heels 07 recruiting class. Just the notables and their scouting reports...

Oh man I wish kidnapping was legal in the US. Or citizen's house arrest.

See: Two posts above you. 1.) I wasn't here before this season so you have no idea what I would have said about those things. 2.) Cedeno outpeformed Neifi Perez in 2006 which is all that matters. 3.) Rusch (healthy) is a decent option for the price we had him at. He totally busted. Our minor leaguers outperformed him last season, which is all that matters. All of the guys you said the rookies outperformed...so really your points are invalid. I am a very philosophical person. I quote people all the time, and now you allow me a chance to bring up one of my favorite message board banter quotes. Friedrich Nietzsche once defined faith as "not wanting to know what is true." The Cubs may believe they found a flaw in Marquis, but I am not going to have blind hope and I am going to look at it objectively. The facts are that he can't strike guys out, and he walks too many and those things are relatively constant throughout a career. He's not changing them anytime soon. As it has been said, Sean Marshall had an ERA a half of a run below Marquis'. Of course Guzman may not outpitch Marquis ERA wise next season but why not look at the difference between Guzman and Marquis. If you expect an ERA around 4.80-5.00 from Marquis as I do, and then say the lowest Guzman would put up is say, um 5.10 (the more he pitches the more he adapts the better he becomes). ERA for a SP is almost always defined on two things ER allowed and innings pitched by the pitcher. Guzman's higher ERA for five innings on average isn't great, but who is pitching the sixth inning? A decent reliever whose ERA is probably at four at the worst in the games that are close. You make those adjustments and the overall ERA in the same amount of IP is going to be about the same. I did't even mention Guzman's relatively higher probability of getting high ERA's - or the fact that Marquis costs twenty-one million dollars. So would I, but it's still not going to happen. Let's not pretend he's good. Again, see Tim's post. ERA matters A LOT. But ERA itself has little to do with ERA.

2007 Clemson Tigers Preview 2007 Cal State Fullerton Titans Preview

Well it'll make sense when it comes to you. You know, usually when someone discredits a statistic for some reason you're supposed to change the argument. All you did was take the same statistic and show it to me in a different form. It's like you saying that Carlos Lee hits 50 homers per 800 ABs. And then I say that there are other ways to grade a hitter's performance than home runs, then refute my argument with, Carlos Lee hits homers at a rate 25% better than league average. It's the exact same argument and my previous point remains. ERA has little to do with ERA. I wouldn't say a guy with an ERA that's probably going to be five has much if any "production." And yes, Guzman and Marshall can certainly produce the same.

we dont need to beat a dead horse. ERA means pretty much jack xxxx when it comes to ERA. Yes, I just said that.

Um, he signed a AAAA pitcher for twenty million. It's better to run out our other AAAA pitchers who are younger, have better stuff and cost a whole four hundred thousand - a little less than six percent of the cost.

Is Jim Hendry still on a lot of medication?

i just asked them what that level got and they said it didnt get any of those. i guess you only get their insider articles which are posted like never.

inolving three "BIG" names. Of course he didn't go any further. Does Jock qualify as BIG?

what sucks is under their 60 dollar subscription you dont even get access to the lists and scouting reports. what a ripoff.

Second team? lmao. Was Kellen Kulbacki first team 1b?

Yeah SC has had good ones for awhile now. Nick Fuller went to class, as did Sam Dyson I believe. Both guys are power righties with fastballs that can get it in the mid 90s. From BA's Recruiting class thing. They were number 2, Baylor (!) was number one. From BA's top 100 HS prospects for 07 though, they have one guy committed, #76 Kyle Greenwalt. Supposedly Greenwalt throws 92-94 with a power curve.

I can't believe baseball season is just a month away! I can't wait. The Owls start Feb 3. In the Minute Maid Classic they've got Vandy so we could see Joe Savery versus David Price, and a little added kick for me as I know two starters on Vandy and three possibly four at Rice. I'll definitely be there. Last year's MMC was a dandy with the Rice Texas game finale. Rice is #1 in Collegiate Baseball's Preseason Poll 1. RICE OWLS (57-13) 497 3 2. Clemson (53-16) 492 5 3. South Carolina (41-25) 490 12 4. Arkansas (39-21) 488 25 5. North Carolina (54-15) 487 2 6. Miami, Fla. (42-24) 483 6 7. Texas (41-21) 482 17 8. Vanderbilt (38-27) 479 - 9. Nebraska (42-17) 477 22 10. Virginia (47-15) 474 20 11. Georgia Tech. (50-18) 472 8 12. Cal. St. Fullerton (50-15) 469 4 13. Florida St. (42-21) 467 24 14. Arizona St. (37-21) 464 - 15. Texas Christian (39-23) 462 - 16. Tulane (43-21) 459 27 17. Wichita St. (46-22) 456 - 18. Tennessee (31-24) 453 - 19. Pepperdine (42-21) 450 30 20. Mississippi (44-22) 448 11 21. Baylor (37-26) 447 26 22. Georgia (47-23) 444 7 23. Stanford (33-27) 441 15 24. Oklahoma St. (41-20) 438 23 25. Southern California (25-33) 435 - 26. UCLA (33-25) 433 - 27. Arizona (27-28) 431 - 28. Evansville (43-22) 429 19 29. Oral Roberts (41-16) 426 14 30. Long Beach St. (29-27) 424 - 31. Louisiana St. (35-24) 421 - 32. Mississippi St. (37-23) 420 - 33. Houston (39-22) 417 21 34. Oklahoma (45-22) 414 10 35. Troy (47-16) 412 - 36. San Francisco (39-23) 409 - 37. Winthrop (46-18) 407 - 38. Michigan (43-21) 406 - 39. Notre Dame (45-17-1) 403 - 40. Ohio St. (37-21) 401 - Tennessee is my sleeper as in who could win it and aren't in the top ten. I also like TCU and Tulane this year as well as the usual picks.

I really don't know how much stock to put in it though. He had an impressive K:BB in Iowa. At some point it will translate and it'll probably happen sooner than later and much sooner than Marquis would be able to pitch halfway decent...

17:3 is the only stat there that matters to me.

http://perfectgame.org/crack%5Fof%5Fthe%5Fbat/patrick%5Febert/06%5F12%5F20%5Finternational%5Fflavor/ Morales isnt top 100 HS on BA.

he also has access to a lot more sources than we do.

That makes the real rate 6.5 or so. http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20061220&content_id=1765217&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

Sure, if that's a guarantee, but I don't buy it. I think Lilly/Marquis at 200 IP each would give you better years than Guzman/Marshall over 200 IP each. But that's MY opinion vs. yours... I really don't think Guzman or Marshall would have to do much to outpace Marquis 2005 and 2006 numbers. As Goony said, stable badness isn't worth much. I don't see how it pitching 200 bad innings is worth anything, 2006 definitely, but 2005? I think Guzman or Marshall would have to do a little more than you think to become a slightly above average pitcher in the league like Marquis was in 2005 (4.13 ERA, 103 ERA+). Yeah they'd have to be traded to the Cardinals

well ba did kinda label him as the best prospect in his league with plus power

God I hate the word "proven." People need to realize that AAA hitters aren't chopped liver and minor league translations are useful for pitchers.