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Mephistopheles

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Everything posted by Mephistopheles

  1. Mephistopheles
    hell be 32 year old SS when he signs, so i dont think hell get a monster length deal. 3 years 40-45 mil is a starting point if he doesnt get hurt.
  2. Mephistopheles
    Overtaxing a bullpen is one of baseball's false beliefs, in my opinion. An impact? Yes. But the reduced stress on the pen isn't worth the significantly higher ERA from your starters. Honestly, I can see baseball going to some psuedo bullpen pitching staff within 30 years where there are no "starters". A team has thirteen pitchers, all relief pitchers who can go 2-3 innings at max effort. The first team to try this strategy might just find it to be worthwhile and cost-efficientl. The ERA a half a run lower is a real effect and it would be sustainable if you can find decent RPs which isn't all that hard.
  3. Mephistopheles
    I don't think he knows a thing about Chris Huseby other than that he has a "good arm." The more and more I've read stuff at his site I've realize how ill-informed he is. Just my authoritative two cents.
  4. Mephistopheles
    Carlos Guillen was a better MVP candidate than Derek Jeter. Sorry, I had to say that.
  5. Mephistopheles
    whether or not he "outperforms" the other "fifth starters" does not matter. Slotting pitchers and saying "oh he's a fine ____ slot starter" is worthless. If you slot each spot at league average then guess what kind of team you're going to be? Average. Big deal... On the other hand look at this way, is he better than Guzman? Probably not. Is he better than Marshall? Maybe. Is he better than Marmol? Maybe. If he's our fifth starter and we signed him for two million dollars that we can easily write off when Guzman's excelling in AAA (which is likely) that's one thing. But no, he's signed to an albatross of a three year contrat that can't be "eaten" at any point due to Jim Hendry's [expletive] misunderstanding of the concept of money. You're asking me to compare him to the rest of the league's fifth starters when we're paying him seven mil? He's not even the seventh best starter on our team and we gave him 21 mil over three years. Christ. (Z, Prior, Hill, Lilly, Miller, Guzman are all guys I'd say are better without a doubt). I have no idea if there are 150 starters out there who will outperform him, I do know that the Cubs have 7-8 guys who would outperform him or at least perform as good as him. That's all that matters.
  6. Mephistopheles
    Im pretty sure you should know. You simply can't put a lot of guys on base and expect to survive without great defense and good luck. In this thread we've run around the block on the issue and there's no need to continue.[/ Eh dont see a point of comparing them. Marquis' career high GB% is 55.5%. Brandon Webb's career low GB% is 64.3%. That's nearly the difference between Marquis 2004 and 2006 rates. On top of that Brandon Webb K's 7.25 per nine innings, Marquis K's 5.5 and it's a falling 5.5. Marquis also walks quite a bit more than Webb does. Stuff wise Marquis sinker has no business compared to Webb's. He needs to concentrate on being something other than a starting pitcher.
  7. Mephistopheles
    it won't really but it will help him find his success. his sinker isn't good enough to get by with a lot of walks and no Ks.
  8. Mephistopheles
    its too bad we cant have st louis' 2004-05 defense come down with him too in the deal. it's the only way he can "find" his sinker.
  9. Mephistopheles
    the projection wont be accurate, but the projection is a projection of the players true talent level. look at it this way, if you were to look at two distributions of 100 seasons of the player for the year. If you have one distribution that's always in 300 PA seasons and the other in 500 PA seasons the curve for their lines won't be the same, but the mean of the two curves will still be the same. That's mean is the projection. The 500 PA curve would be "squished" compared to the 300 PA curve. and re about the looking at career averages, these projections are more accurate that those...
  10. Mephistopheles
    the 500 pa there means that the correlation only took in account players who got 500 pas in order to minimize any random sample size issues. in derosa's case it isnt as if his projections dont use seasons where he had less than five hundred PAs. That pa disclaimer was only used to run the correlation. they really dont have anything to do with the actual projections.
  11. Mephistopheles
    umm that really doesnt have much to do with it...
  12. Mephistopheles
    Beavan dominated Dayan Viciedo. Jesus. http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/features/263001.html
  13. Mephistopheles
    im nearly done with it, so probably not. Five weeks here, although I have to work some. Phillippe Aumont seems to be rising. Wonder if theyre going to do a college one any time soon. Theyve had several top 10s from the HS side of the game. Of course the preseason college stuff should come out in January alternating with the NL top 10s.
  14. Mephistopheles
    BA top 100 HS prospects for non-prospect plus'ers but still for subscribers http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/college/news/262995.html the first name i dont know much off the top of my head is Kozma at number 11, will look at him later on. Now that finals are over I would like to search up on a lot of guys - provided that FFXII doesnt get in the way too much
  15. Mephistopheles
    Chris Snelling would hve been a mighty fine 2007 Cubs rightfielder.
  16. Mephistopheles
    sweet, 4.98 ERA zips projection for marquis. kinda sad that i am glad its under five though...
  17. Mephistopheles
    brad wilkerson is a lot better than aaron rowand
  18. Mephistopheles
    maybe even high school. in vermont.
  19. Mephistopheles
    People read Mayo's stuff? The guy's terrible.
  20. Mephistopheles
    Miguel Acensio and Jason Jennings for Taylor Buchholz and Jason Hirsh? Wow terrible deal for the Astros. Enjoy that 1.50 WHIP Houston.
  21. Mephistopheles
    Don't think Theo doesn't notice that Bob Howry's ERA+ the last three years has been around 160 and had a 71:17 K:BB last season.
  22. Mephistopheles
    some places are like that, but allan simpson runs that site, he created BA. And given the close relationship with PG, theyve got a little more of a reputation to protect. Unlike BA, their sole concern is amateur baseball, so theyre probably the best at what they do.
  23. Mephistopheles
    Good, maybe we can certainly trade off some our excess bullpen to Boston.
  24. Mephistopheles
    Well he hit .289/.359/.427/.786 the last three months of the season.
  25. Mephistopheles
    The thing is we can guarantee that we get those two players by trading marginal prospects for them, although their prices through arby might be higher than their prices as an FA.
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