This would all be true if we were talking about emotionless automatons that operate purely on the basis of random odds, but we're talking about a sport that, even among professional sports, involves huge swings of emotion. A baseball player going up to bat 700 times in a 162 game season we can roughly estimate makes most of those at-bats roughly equivalent. Not exactly the same in football, IMO. But, its IMO.
EDIT: hah, and then I hear a quote from DJ Moore that he felt like the Hail Mary was the turning point of the season. Of course, that’s said ex post facto, looking back on the season and trying to find an explanation. But well, he also said it. 🤷♂️