Not to take anything away from the Cardinals, but they have been one of the luckiest (although much has been created out of Jocketty's intelligence) teams in all of baseball. Aside from the Rolen injury, what hasn't gone their way? Sanders stayed healthy and produced at an old age. Carpenter became a stud. Marquis has been tremendous. Edmonds has remained productive. Their pithing has stayed healthy. Tavares has been solid out of the pen. Womack had one of the flukiest seasons in MLB history. Eckstein recovered nicely. What I'm trying to say is (without a constant infusion of farm talent like the Braves) this team is bound to abide from the law of averages. They're due for more injuries. Some players are bound to decline. Others are bound to have off years. This luck simply can't conitune. At least I hope and don't think so. The exact opposite of which can be said about the Cubs. Aside from Derek Lee, virtually everything that could have gone wrong has. Every bullpen acquisition has been a complete disaster (even the ones that were, at the time, good sigining - LT). Prior and Wood have been slowed by injuries. Rookies haven't produced. Corey's regression was stunning even to this lifelong detractor. Our closers have been injured and inconsistent. Although some of this can be chalked up to shoddy coaching, and/or shoddy talent evaluation by our GM, a lot of it was simply bad luck. Could this bad luck continue on into next year? Sure it could. But based on the amount of misfortune the Cubs had last year I'd expect '06 to bring significantly less. In saying this I am by no means trying to diminish what the Cardinals have done, or excuse the self created poor play the Cubs have perpetrated. What I am saying, though is that the gap between the Cardinals and the Cubs isn't as wide as people think it is. Just think what would happen if both teams fortunes reversed themselves next year. Carpenter goes down. Mulder misses significant time. The Cards bullpen (which may be the BIGGEST reason for their succes the last few years) goes up in flames. Molina regresses. Edmonds (in Madduxesque fashion) declines. The second base option is a disaster. Reyes torches his shoulder (in Guzman fashion. Definately a lot of ifs, but it COULD happen (as it did to us). You can't tell me a team with this amount of attrition would finish with anything more than 84-85 wins (which would be EXTREMELY lucky). On the flip side look at what our team would have. Wood and Prior healthy. One of our rookies blossoms while the other is serviceable. At least one of our ? (RF and 2B) are solid. Our bullpen, for the first time since 01 (and the single BIGGEST reason for this teams failure) isn't a complete disaster. Corey (if still here) plays to even half his potential. Again a lot of ifs, but you couldn't tell me this team (under this scenario) wouldn't easily attain 92+ wins. With the improved pen we'd have at LEAST 3 15 game winners. Our 1 + 2 hitters would score a lot of runs. Lee's production numbers (RBI and runs) would surge because of it. This would be a very good baseball team. Now I definately wouldn't bank on this to happen (whit this team I don't count on anything), but I wouldn't be shocked (or even surprised) if it did. Great post. And surprisingly un-bitter sounding. I agree completely.