davell

Rob Neyer did make me laugh, talking about Weathers. He said maybe TheoJed can find a delivery in his flaw.

The big change in philosophy is really apparent, even in this small trade. We traded 2 guys that were Hendry/Wilken " surefire major league players" for 2 guys with "boom or bust" potential. I've always thought taking risks was better than taking averagish type guys in the draft and even in this deal, we're already starting to see a philosophic change in the types of players we target. Stewart cost us very little. In a year, if he has the type year he's capable of, he could net us a very nice return. Colvin and DJ just didn't have that ability. Maybe it works out, maybe it doesn't. But, it's worth a 2 million dollar gamble to find out.

Yeah, don't get me wrong, I'd much rather have had Headley as well. But we don't know what the pricetag was either. I'm fine with this. On to the next move.

Stewart is the one guy in this trade that can wind up an All Star. No, it's not likely. But, all it takes is one of these type moves to work out and we've got ourselves a bigtime bargain. I like this type of gamble on a young guy much more than Hendry's MO of signing older guys coming off injuries at least. It's a small move in an offseason that may have many. Let's see what else happens.

Connor Glassey said Weathers was hitting 97 with a nasty slider in the AFL. Maybe we were impressed by him? Guess so, anyway.

I'm not sure that really has anything to do with it, because I don't think we had a realistic option for 3rd that was going to be expensive. At least not since we decided against bringing Aramis back, which was very early in the process.

Actually, O'Dowd did this exact thing in this very deal. He took both Stewart and Weathers in the 1st round.

I didn't want to give up LeMahieu in this honestly. But Stewart's upside is very high. I couldn't care less about Colvin, he'll probably wind up as a career 4th OFer. LeMahieu? Who knows? If he could stick at 2B though, he could have lots of value and make us regret this. That said, it's probably pretty unlikely. Weathers is a flyer obviously, probably just another in a long line of guys who throw hard and have no clue where it's going. But, who knows? Stewart still has All Star potential, so this could wind up a great move. At worst, we've got Baker and Dewitt for now, in case Stewart is awful. I'm optimistic though.

This is really frustrating, because the ONLY way I can see the Bulls winning a title now is if they find a way to add a truly legitimate 2nd scorer. Almost has to be a 2 or a 3, but if they don't find that somehow, we're destined to be the Cavaliers or Knicks of the 90's. Jason Richardson ain't getting it done.

Geez, you know the Lakers are sending Bynum and trash for Howard. Oh well, it's the lesser of 2 evils as far as I'm concerned. I'd rather see them dominate than the Heat.

While I certainly would have jumped for joy if we had gotten Wilson at THAT price, it was never going to happen. If we had paid over 100 mill for him, which we would have had to do, I'd have been pissed. Fielder, Darvish, and Cespedes are all still out there and I think we'll get one of them.

I thought it was 4 days? Wouldn't that make it 5 p.m. eastern on Dec. 12? Business days, I guess.

I have been searching but haven't found anything about this guy's arsenal. Cuba is basically AA ball, right? If so, his K rate isn't all that troubling to me, since he is just 19 and pitching up for his age. The fact it was even brought up he MAY not be ready to help a major league team intrigues me, especially at that age. If anyone finds anything about what he throws and his velo, please post it.

I think that's a very nice haul. Perez and Olt are definitely top 100 guys, arbuably top 50. Ramirez is probably about on a par with McNutt, maybe slightly behind. Yes, this would signal rebuild though. Olt may be ready by 2013, Ramirez could be our 5th guy this year even, but Perez, no matter that he's reached AAA, needs a full year at AA and then some time at AAA as well. My only issue with this deal is if I'm dealing away Garza, I really want a true top of the rotation type as the centerpiece in return. Perez probably isn't that guy. Jacob Turner, Tyler Skaggs, Jarrod Parker are the 3 names I'm most interested in myself.

TT, I agree it's definitely treading water at the major league level. But adding. Skaggs, Corbin, Borchering, Scheppers, Buckel, Silva, Gonzalez, and Soler all to the minor league system gives us a hell of an improved system, especially considering we'll have a very high pick in the draft, along with 2 comp picks as well. If we somehow did stay in the race, we'd be able to make a deal or two and it not even truly hurt where the system would be headed. Plus, in this case, it puts us in the position next offseason to go out and be what the Angels and Marlins were this one. And we could easily head into 2013 as one of, if not THE best looking roster in the NL.

I figure even Theo isn't immune to adding the proverbial "6th" starter" type guy. May not be Lopez obviously, but I figure it's gonna be someone.

I believe so. So 4 days from now we'll know the bid I would imagine. Not necessarily. His team has 4 days to decide whether or not to accept the bid. So, it could very well be 8 days before we know who won and for how much.

Now that the Pujols sweepstakes are over and Fielder's are about to begin, I'm going to attempt to figure out our team going forward. The team payroll right now projects to 110.1 mill. This includes guesses I've got for arbitration cases and also the 5 mill payout to Pena and Silva's 2 mill buyout. currently we have 4 open roster spots on the 40 man, but I'm counting Wood as being re-signed as well, so it's 3 for now. If our entire baseball budget winds up at 150 mill, I'm figuring we can only spend the 2.9 for IFA after July and 8.1 for the amateur draft to make it an even 11 mill. Leaving us with 134 mill to spend throughout the offseason, both on the majors and the minors as well. I'm also counting 3 mill for the 40 man guys who aren't going to make the major league club. Pitchers that are on our 40 man right now include the following..... Starters- Cabrera, Coleman, Dempster-15.5m, Garza-9.5m, Wells-2m, Zambrano-18m We have 4 projectable rotation guys right now. I kind of see Wells getting dealt, if only because I have not even heard him mentioned by the braintrust all offseason. The return? No idea really, but my guess is a solid top 15ish talent from a team's system that does NOT have to be placed on the 40 man roster. Garza is a guy that I still see getting dealt myself. I think Arizona winds up being his landing spot and the return ends up Skaggs/Corbin/Borchering/Miley. This return would put Miley immediately on the 40 man and allows him to compete for the 4/5 spots in the rotation. Skaggs becomes our top prospect. With an outside shot at coming up during the season, though probably would spend the bulk of it in AA. Corbin MAY even become our 2nd best pitching prospect, I view him close with McNutt personally. He could start the year off repeating AA or in AAA, but he projects as a mid rotation guy and could/should get a callup next year at some point. Borchering has HUGE power, but has HUGE holes in his swing. And needs lots of work his glove as well. May wind up strictly as a 1B longterm, but for now still has a chance at 3B. Probably begins the year in AA and needs the full season there. By losing Wells and Garza, the payroll would drop 11.5 mill, so it becomes 11 after adding Miley back to it. The 40 man decreases to 36 with these moves as well. Bullpen The guys on our 40 man include Beliveau, Cashner-.5m, Castillo, Dolis, Gaub, Maine, Marmol-7.2m, Marshall-3.1m, Mateo, Russell-.5m, Samardzija-2.4m, Wood-2.5m I fully expect a trade to take one of Beliveau, Gaub, or Maine off the 40 man. Too many LOOGY's. Beliveau needs a shot at the major league club, so I see one of Gaub or Maine being gone, probably Maine. Will receive very little in return, but it gives us another roster spot anyway. Since it's likely we'll carry 7 bullpen arms, I've only got salaries listed for 6, meaning I expect one of the others to make the roster. On the other hand, I really see us dealing Marshall. The reasons are simple: As Theo said, he's probably the best lefty hullpen arm in the majors. He has tons of value for his pricetag and we have Russell, who's shown he can be very solid in a relief role to replace him. But, the main reason to trade Marshall is what happens at the end of the season for him? Is he going to accept a 4/16 type extension from us? I doubt it very seriously. Because other teams may view him as a closer or even as a starter potentially. I can honestly see him getting 10 mill a year from some team looking to transform him. Texas being a logical landing spot. So, go ahead and trade him to them. I'll say the return is Cody Buckel and Tanner Scheppers. Scheppers is a power arm that should fit nicely into the back end of the bullpen by next season and Buckel is another mid rotation type guy who'd probably start the season in Daytona. I don't currently see enough of a market out there to trade Marmol, so hold onto him, see if he reverts back to his previous form and shop him at the deadline possibly. I think either of Cashner or Shark could make a decent closer. Yes, I want Cashner to find his way back to the rotation, but it's not going to happen this year, he needs to build his arm back up. We're saving 3.1 mill here on Marshall, and opening up 2 more roster spots as well. Onto our position players, starting with Catchers. Our catchers are Soto-4.2m, Hill, Castillo, and Clevenger. Hill is gone, no arb offer coming. I don't see any other movement here honestly. One of Castillo or Clevenger can make the major league roster and while Soto has been dangled, if he has a better season, his value goes back up towards the deadline anyway. Ans there probably will be more of a need at that point than there is currently. Infielders- Our current group of infielders on the 40 man include, Baker-1.75m, DeWitt-1.25m, Barney-.5m, Castro-.5m, LaHair-.5m, Lake, Vitters, and LeMahieu-.5m. I see one of Baker or DeWitt being moved, for this exercise, we'll say it's DeWitt. No other movement here whatsoever. I'll say the trade for Stewart happens and it's DeWitt and Colvin that wind up heading to Colorado. If Stewart is making 3 mill, we add another roster spot here, but add 1.25mill back to the payroll with the Stewart acquisition. Puts our 40 man count at 32 though. Need a 1B obviously. Finally, the Outfield. We have currently this group on our 40 man.....Soriano-18m, DeJesus-4.25m, Campana-.5m, Colvin-.5m, Byrd-6m, and Szczur. Colvin's gone in the Stewart trade and unfortunately, I just don't see us able to trade Soriano, nor do I see us getting the value out of trading Byrd RIGHT NOW, so I think they both stick. Brett Jackson probably makes Byrd expendable by mid season. 40 MAN ROSTER count is at 32. Needs are starting pitching and a 1B. Maybe an OFer. I don't personally see any other trades for us out there, other than maybe for a 1B. Moves to make going forward Payroll stands at this point right at 97 million, with the ability to make it to 139. First move is to win the posting process on Darvish. Probably going to take 55 million or so to do it. Pitching is scarce and there's going to be the big boys in on this, especially since Valentine loves him. Give him a 5 year contract for 60 million. 12 mill for each year and amateurize the posting fee into the same 5 year period. This counts him as 23 million towards the payroll each year. If there was a way for this to happen without counting the posting fee into payroll, I'd love to find that as an option, but I'm trying to be realistic here. Trade or sign Kendry Morales. He'll cost about 3.5 mill next year and if he's tendered a contract, he's not going to cost us much in trade. Yes, he's a wildcard, but he is a guy that could fit into the middle of the order for us right now. Unfortunately, you have Lahair waiting in the wings here if things go wrong, but I just don't see us able to sign Fielder AND Darvish as well. Maybe Morales becomes Theo's latest version of Ortiz? Sign Wei Yin Chen to a 4 year 16 million dollar contract. 4 mill per season and see if he becomes a mid rotation guy. At his age, he's a potential bargain at this price. Plus, he's a lefty, something we don't have at the major league level, unless Miley makes the rotation. Go ahead and add Rodrigo Lopez for a mill. Theo mentioned it and while it may have been a joke, it's likely we'll add someone like this at any rate. Sign Jorge Soler to a 5 year 25 million deal. This is assuming we've liked what we've seen out of him. Slot him into the system wherever it is he fits and hopefully he moves quickly. This leaves us 3 open spots on the 40 man, by the way. One for Brett Jackson and two for whichever starter earns a callup later in the season. This leaves about 2.5 million left to spend and I'd spend it on a pair of the Dominican arms that were left over from the July 2nd signing period: Mauricio Silva and Manuel Gonzalez. Both have bigtime arms and huge potential. So, is this major league team very good for 2012? No, it's not. But, I think it's realistic. And it at least has a chance to stay in the race in 2012 if things go right. But, the key here is you've built your system up bigtime. You've added Skaggs, Corbin, Borchering, Soler, Scheppers, Buckel, and the 2 16 year old Dominicans over an offseason. By doing this, you've taken the system from what's probably a 17-20ish type system and put it back into the top 10 immediately and one with lots of upside. Your 40 man roster becomes this: Bullpen- Beliveau, Carpenter, Cashner, Castillo, Dolis, Gaub, Marmol, Mateo, Russell, Samardzija, Wood Starters- Darvish, Dempster, Zambrano, Chen, Lopez, Miley, Cabrera, Coleman Catchers- Soto, Castillo, Clevenger Infield- Baker, Barney, Castro, Lahair, Lake, LeMahieu, Vitters, Stewart, Morales Outfield- Soriano, Byrd, DeJesus, Campana, Szczur, Soler Lineup for 2012 RF DeJesus CF Byrd SS Castro 1B Morales 3B Stewart LF Soriano C Soto 2B Barney SP Darvish, Dempster, Zambrano, Chen, Miley RP Marmol, Samardzija, Cashner, Wood, Russell, Carpenter, Lopez Bench Castillo, Baker, Lahair, LeMahieu, Campana Like I am stressing, this IS NOT a contender in 2012, unless things go just right. But, you've got Dempster, Byrd, and Zambrano coming off the books the following year. You should have Skaggs ready to fill a major role on your staff, Brett Jackson should be set in CF by then. And you've got the possibility to move Soto and Marmol as well, since it's fairly likely they're replaceable in house. And your system is in much better shape, to where you can afford to pay up to land a bigtime bat and you'll have money to spend on a bigtime FA arm as well. Pitching is the key here and what looks to be the future strongpoint of this squad, in my scenario. Within 2 seasons, you could have Darvish, Skaggs, Chen, and a bigtime FA as your front 4 with a lineup including Castro and Brett, with Morales and a bigtime bat you've added and maybe Soler's ready or you've traded for another bat as well, but the options are there anyway. Theo has said he wants to build a longterm contender and this is kind of how I see things working out for us. A lean year, maybe 2, but longterm success after that.

I doubt that's the case, but I honestly think as long as he leaves Milwaukee, we can build in a different way and still contend immediately. 8 for 200? I think I'll pass.

Marlins are probably going to go hard after Cespedes. I can see them overpaying bigtime for him at this point.

Hendry's famous quote after the Soriano deal....."We're going to get good and we're going to stay good"......

Only way they MAY even listen to us on Upton is if Starlin was in the deal. The Feldman thing probably came from the Rangers or someone who knows nothing about the conversations at all.

To me, this kind of mirrors us losing Maddux the first time. It was how he was treated, not necessarily about the money. In Pujols' case, he was underpaid for his entire career there and didn't feel appreciated, since he was the best player in the game for the vast majority of his deal. I don't see how anyone can possibly blame him for leaving. The Cards had a few years to get this done without anyone else involved and preyed on the loyalty factor to make it work. And still expected him to take less, because it's where he began his career. Oh well, you flirted with disaster St.Louis. And it decided to marry the hell out of you evidently.

You don't think someone would work a trade for Morales before it got to the nontender stage? Maybe. But his health would have to be totally proven to be OK. Even then, you run the risk of teams knowing you're going to get rid of him and they're going to be taking shots at the Angels because of that. If the Angels don't know for a fact he's tradeable without having to pay any cash whatsoever, then I think there's a shot he gets nontendered, especially because of his iffy health. Plus, don't the contracts have to be tendered by tomorrow?

I like them quite a bit now myself. best case scenario for us, as far as I'm concerned.