davell

Darvish' winner to be announced tomorrow morning in Japan, meaning around 9 PM tonight here, according to Morosi.

While I basically agree Danks gets 5/75 or so, if Cain or Hamels hits the open market, they're both going to be 150 mill type guys. 7 or 8 year deals.

And I'll say this as well: If we trade Garza and miss out on Darvish and Prince, we NEED to trade Marshall as well. My honest guess is a team like Texas could look at him as either a starter or as a closer. Other teams may think the same. So, trade him now, before the season starts, especially if a team wants to stretch him out, so he can start this upcoming season. Because next year, when he hits FA, he's going to be a total wildcard. I can see a team giving him a 3/30 type deal and give him a shot at something he's not had here. His value is extremely solid too, I could see Texas sending us Olt for him or maybe a package of Ramirez and Buckel.

I think Rizzo and Alonso are very comparable, value-wise. That said, I like Rizzo much, much more. Someone like Grandal is comparable value-wise with Perez. Volquez? No clue honestly what he matches up with, because I'm not sure anyone knows what to expect from him. Boxberger is a solid prospect in his own right, but he's a reliever, even though he may wind up as a closer. I'm bringing this up, because Latos has more value than Garza. Pitching ability is probably close, but it's 4 years versus 2. So Latos certainly was going to have a better package towards him. Is Garza worth Perez and Rizzo? Hopefully. But, I'm not totally sure we can even get that and it doesn't appear like that's going to make people happy. To me, that's adding 2 top 50 prospects, one a potential middle of the order hitter and the other's a potential 2 or 3 starter. In a perfect world, Detroit is the team I want to deal with, because I'd take Turner and either Smyly, Crosby, or Oliver and call it a day. But, if they won't do that, I'd take Rizzo and Perez in a 3 team deal and be impressed as well.

That proposed package actually has lots of talent in it. It may not be the talent I necessarily WANT from Texas, but Harrison was a 4 WAR pitcher last year. I don't think that's sustainable for him, but he's a solid 3 in the NL most likely. Moreland is a very average starting 1B at best, maybe a corner OF, but he IS a decent major league starter at least. I'm not a huge fan of Martin myself, as I'm not sure how his bat plays in the majors. But he IS a top 100 prospect at least. I like Neil Ramirez quite a bit myself. Not as a headliner, but I think he's every bit the prospect that McNutt is anyway. I know nothing about Akins, other than he is a 3rd round HS kid from the 2010 draft. Lots of talent there, just not the guys I'd want if given my pick. That said, I'm not sure another team would give us that much either for Garza and Marshall. I'd rather get Perez. Olt, Ramirez, and Rizzo from SD, if we trade both Garza and Marshall.

I hate myself for even bringing this up, but if there ever was time for a 3 team trade, it's now. Pads send Rizzo to us, get Olt from Texas in return. Garza goes to Texas and we get Perez back from them. If not Perez, then we could get any 2 of Buckel, Ross, Ramirez, Scheppers. In the end though, a return of Rizzo and Perez for Garza would be pretty sweet, in my opinion.

Why would the Padres have an interest in Garza? Money-wise, he makes no sense for them. But they do have one of the best systems in the game, so whatever.

It's risky, but part of me kind of wants to do something like trading for Rizzo over signing Prince. Because IF he does turn into Ryan Howard, we've got him and Castro cheap for a while and that much MORE money to build an actual superteam. It'd give us the ability to still get 4 impact guys over the next 2 years, while adding one who's cheap as hell, to go along with it. Of course, if he misses, we've missed out on the best power source that's going to be on the market this year or next.

Heyman just said we are interested in Rizzo. Wonder what it'd take to get him? He did struggle bigtime at the major league level, but since he's 22, I doubt that affects his value all that much. I'd trade anyone from the system other than Brett and Baez. Maybe McNutt and Lake for him? Although I wouldn't do anything until we know where we stand with Prince obviously.

Bowden tweeted Boston is in contact with us about Marmol, Oakland about Bailey, and keeping tabs on Madson. Madson will cost the most obviouslu, which could deter them, if they actually are concerned with the luxury tax. Bailey is obviously the cheapest, but he'd cost a lot more in prospects than Marmol would. I wouldn't mind eating some salary on his contract for THIS season, if it meant we could get one of Lavarnway, Midllebrooks, Cecchini, Brentz, Ranaudo, or Jacobs.

To me, the Cubs are giving Soto away for free right there. Add in Neil Ramirez or Cody Buckel and it probably makes it fair.

I'm OK with a year deal for Maholm. To me, it's all about his shoulder. If he's a guy we can get on the cheap, say 2/10 or less, I think it's an excellent move. If he's a guy we pay 3/27 for? I don't see how it makes any sense whatsoever.

Boxberger will probably get a shot at their closer's job this year at some point. It'll be interesting to see whether they flip Rizzo or Alonso though. They'll probably say all the right things about keeping both, but I just don't see any chance they're both on their roster come opening day.

If we miss on Darvish, but get Prince, is adding Edwin Jackson the best thing for us to do at that point? Or is trading Garza a better option? Because I just don't see us able to put together a package to add an elite SP right now.

Personally, I wouldn't put Alonso ahead of Brett, but Grandal would be right there with him. The point though, os with this trade, I don't see how we can put a package together for Gio, without sending PTBNL's, including Baez.

If we miss on Fielder, Rizzo becomes one of my favorite options available. And if we miss on Fielder AND Darvish, then I hope this return gives us reason to flip Garza, who I think is slightly better than Latos(albeit a tad older), but probably has slightly less value, because it's 4 years versus 2 for Garza under team control, along with the money factor as well. Hell, I wouldn't mind finding a way to get Volquez, to be honest. He's still got upside himself. But Garza isn't a guy the Pads would be wanting. Not sure what kind of package we could offer for Rizzo and Volquez that makes sense for them. Although part of me thinks Rizzo could immediately be on his way to Tampa, involving Davis.

I wonder if Soler is in the same boat? This holds up the OF market for sure. Soler doesn't matter as much, since he's not a major league ready guy, but this slows down any market there may be for Marlon Byrd most likely.

Tim, as much as I want to include Cashner in the rotation talk, I just don't see it happening in 2012. He needs innings, but gradual ones. I think if we can get him 70 or 80 next year, then get him 20 or 30 more in some winter ball, maybe we can up him to 150 or so in 2013. And hope that in 2014 he's a fulltime, possible 180ish inning guy by then. As far as Shark goes, I have no clue what to think, other than I am highly skeptical of switching him up again, after he's finally found success and looked comfortable. I look at him as Marmol's successor myself. Maholm? I think he can be a mid rotation guy, much better than what I ultimately see Rusin, Struck, or even Wells from here on out becoming. That said, unless we plan on signing a big name or two, Maholm doesn't seem necessary.

If the Blue Jays win the bid and it's 50 mill, then they have to give him 5/75 on top of that, I'm not sure I'll be all that disappointed. In the end, it's 25 mill a year for a guy who's never thrown a pitch in the majors. Don't get me wrong, I want him to be a Cub. But, at those numbers, we could very well be better off waiting for an ace out of next year's FA class.

On BN, Brett brought up something I didn't know: Maholm had shoulder issues to end the season and didn't pitch after August 17th. Andrews looked at him and didn't find anything, but this should still affect his contract, I would think. By the way, Levine's blog quoted a source as saying "getting the money right is going to be the key". Really Bruce, does that need to be said? Really? Money is an important factor for an athlete. Damn. Learn something new everyday.

Would adding Maholm, Jackson, and Prince be enough to win the division? It IS pretty damn weak, you know? Not what I want at all, but a fair question, I think.

The only thing I've read on Chen recently is there are lots of teams in on him. I'd rather have him too and I bet he still comes cheaper than Maholm will. That said, a soft tossing lefty like Maholm can probably duplicate his recent seasons for a while.

He's been worth 10.1 WAR over the last 4 years. Not bad, I'm not sure what he's worth though. At his age, I could see a team giving him a 3 or possibly even a 4 year deal. Heyman predicted 2/14 for him and if we accomplished that, I'd be pretty happy honestly. But, if we wind up at 3/30 or something, count me as being pissed. But I guess he's a decent mid rotation guy and we need a lefty.

Asking scouts, maybe? I'm not really sure, but it certainly made sense to me when he said it.

If our entire baseball budget is 200 mill, but employee salaries and minor league operations come from that number, as has been mentioned by Levine, let's figure we've got 150 mill to spend between the major league team and player development. Player development us only going to be around 11 mill or so, at this point, with the new CBA. So, it leaves us around 139-140 mill, let's just say 140. Our payroll right now is around 111 mill, including entire 40 man rosterees, buyouts, deferments, arb guesses, and figuring Wood to be back. Leaves us 30 mill to spend basically. If we get Darvish, AZPhil said his posting fee will go towards player development and used as such for the next few years. So, if his fee is 50 mill, my guess is we'd count it as 10 for each of the next 5 years. My honest guess, is there's no chance we get both him and Prince, unless we do wind up trading Marmol and/or Byrd. Maybe Soriano and Zambrano could save us some cash as well, but probably not enough to warrant them not being around and taking up a spot here. Some extremely heavy backloading is a possibility too, I suppose, since we've got so much cash coming off again next year. So, if we've got 30 mill to spend and we miss on Prince and Darvish, how should we spend it? Soler is going to get a major league deal, so 20ish mill over a 5 year period is nothing much and should be a very high priority(4 mill per year). Let's say we find a way to spend 10 mill more on IFA this offseason as well. Or at least leave it as overage penalty money we'll wind up spending during the draft or signing day. We'd have 15 mill to finalize the major league roster, without making any trades at all that save money. The funny thing is this though: There's talent out there that can be had through trade to where even that small amount of cash could turn this team into a contender within the division at least. Whether it's trading for a Gio or whoever else we can get and trading for a Morales, Smoak, whoever at 1B. Then spend on an Edwin Jackson or a Cespedes and hope for the best. I'm not saying it's a division winner, but if things fell right, it certainly could be. And you'd have revamped the system somewhat, considering you probably gave up quite a bit of our top end for the 2 trades. It's not my ideal situation, but it's something that could happen, I suppose. Adding a Gio Gonzalez, Kendry Morales, and Yoenis Cespedes to this weak ass division could get us into the playoffs. To me, there's a bunch of different ways to look at it. But, I'll say this; I don't see Theo punting on 2012. We're not going to firesale, even though I too, wouldn't mind seeing it.