davell

Why the wait in the announcement? Don't get me wrong, I thought Kemp deserved MVP to begin with, but if this had come out before voting, I'm sure it would have changed voting around. Seriously, Matt Kemp has to be pissed right now.

LCCF. Just curious, but if the Cubs win the bidding on Darvish, how do you think they'd put the posting fee into payroll, if at all? All at once or amateurized over the length of the eventual contract, even though it's paid as one lump sum.

Good analysis, Kyle. If I were to seriously consider a deal like this, I think I'd have to find out if Hanley is willing to move to 3B for his new team. If so, you've then got a platoon at 2B with Stewart and Barney as well. I'm on the fence as to whether I'd go through with it. But, if you can add Prince and then make a trade for Gio somehow, I think I'd have to go ahead and bite. That said, my guess is the Marlins would be wanting more than Garza, rightly or wrongly.

Straight up for Garza. Sign Prince. Can't afford Darvish now. Sign Edwin Jackson. Sign Cespedes. Trade Byrd. Trade Brett, McNutt, and whatever for Gio. From my plan in other thread, you've added3 impact hitters in one offseason, one pitcher, with a shot at another one turning into one, I guess.

Cubs give up Randy Wells and prospect and get Alonso and Wood in return? You're right about one thing, man. This would be helping Jed.

I'll even say this: Now that Boras has watched Pujols get his 10 year deal, unless we're ready to go 6/180 on Prince or something like that, we're going to need to give him 7 and maybe 8 years. but, it's going to be 200 mill. If Hamels hit the open market, he'd get 7 years from someone, maybe 8. Cain too. Greinke probably gets 6, because of the social anxiety issue in the back of everyone's minds. Danks will get 5 or 6. I think guys like McCarthy and Sanchez get more than 2-3 year deals as well. Maybe much more, depending on how well their seasons go. Liriano is a wildcard obviously. Marcum is a bit older, but still could see him getting 4 or 5 years. He certainly would have if he were available right now. Considering Buehrle just got 4 especially and he's older.

When all these guys start getting offers for 5-6 year deals, are we going to have to look elsewhere because of a fear of "overpaying?" Nope. Not if you ever want to get one of them. Most of these guys are young enough to give excellent production through most of the deal and by the time it may hurt us, we have to have faith that the system will have produced capable replacements or allow to trade for those replacements one or the other. To me, while I would have done cartwheels if we had signed Pujols, it really went against my longterm idea. Fielder is a much better fit, if you ask me. Wilson wasn't coming here anyway, so I don't know why anyone is worried about missing out on him. Like I said, 4 bigtime players. 2 bats. 2 arms. I'm figuring 20 mill per guy for 3 of them and 10 mill for the traded guy we acquire. Length of contract is what it is and I'm trying to address that as well, indirectly, by spending as much as I can on IFA before the deadline comes and we can't. Hoping this helps us out during the latter years of some of these FA's, if the production drops off bigtime.

2 year plan. I honestly don't care what we do at the major league level in 2012. But, we'll have a decent squad, in all likelihood at the major league level. with the money we have coming off this year and next, we can add 2 impact bats and 2 impact arms. It's what we SHOULD do. As I mentioned earlier, one of these guys will probably have to come through trade, just to keep us from adding 80 mill in payroll on 4 guys. What we have Pitching- by 2013, we'll have Garza. Maybe. If you trade him, you better bring an elite arm in return that's ready to go in 2013 as well. We may have Cashner, Shark, or McNutt ready to fill a spot by then. But, it's a 4/5 spot. What we need Pitching- 2 elite arms through trade or FA. Take your pick of Darvish or a trade for this winter. It's our only option to address this right now. We'll probably need a back of the rotation guy as well, so hopefully we find a trade for a Wade Davis or someone, who at least has the ability to turn into more than what we acquired them to be. Wei Yen Chen makes sense here as well. If Theo is completely sold Edwin Jackson's got it in him to be a top of the rotation guy, he needs to go get him, because his market is slow to develop and he may come cheaper than we were thinking. Leaving us more money to spend elsewhere. Definitely a risk though. Next year's FA class offers much more, at least right now. Some of these guys will re-up, but some will be out there as well. Matt Cain, John Danks, Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, Francisco Liriano, Shaun Marcum, Brandon McCarthy, Anibal Sanchez. I'd make a bet right now at least ONE of those 8 guys is in our rotation by 2013. Could even be 2 of them. Obviously, not all are "aces" but all are or should be very solid front of the rotation guys. I'm not mentioning the bullpen here, by the way, because I think that even if lose Marmol, we've got the makings of a very nice pen. Plenty of young power arms to play around with here. No big money should or will be tied up here. Catching- We've got Soto and CAN have him in 2013. If we do, I hope it's his last season with us, because I don't want to give him a 3 year deal or so at that point. Perfect world has Castillo giving us very cheap solid production. Or maybe we draft Zunino and he's ready mid 2014 somehow and we either use Soto or a stopgap if Soto is dealt between now and then. Probably not adding your bigtime bat here. What we need out of Catcher- What we're getting is fine, I doubt we find an impact bat here. Corner Infield- Obviously, you want Fielder to be one of these impact bats. Mainly because there's not many out there and even less next year. May have to acquire the bat through trade and buy the pitching. 3B is not really an option through FA between now and then. Trade for Wright on last year of his deal? Doubtful, not worth it. Hope Stewart gets it going. Otherwise, we're probably looking at another stopgap in 2013 or Vitters or Lake. Neither of which has inspired me to not worry about 3B longterm as of yet. What we need out of the Corners- At least one and maybe both of the impact bats come from here. My guess is just one at 1B, since 3B production has become very scarce. Middle Infield- Castro is not moving between now and then. Sticking at SS and we're so lucky to have him. Can't say that enough. Barney? He's fine, but I hope we've upgraded by then personally. Kendrick and Phillips are both FA in 2012, but both could resign. Trade for a bat is about the only option I see here as well, if we want to do something. What we need out of the Middle Infield Castro is elite and we're getting that production at a bargain. It'd be nice to have more offense out of 2B, but it's not totally necessary, unless we can't find it elsewhere. Outfield- My guess is we'll be rid of Soriano by then. If not, he's just kind of in the way. I'm counting on Brett Jackson to be a decent CF. I bet Theo is as well. We'll have DeJesus in RF and LF is open. Brett could move there and leave CF open. Either way, we've got an opening. Cespedes could be the big bat here. So could BJ Upton next year. I seriously doubt Texas lets Hamilton walk. Our only other potential big bat in the OF is Andre Ethier. What we need out of the OF Pressure on Brett Jackson to become a decent OBP, decent power, decent speed, cheap guy for one. But, I think he will become just that and give us great cheap production. DeJesus is what he is, so we need an impact bat at the other spot. A guy that's going to hit behind or in front of Prince almost definitely has to come from this spot. Like I said, if we add 4 big pieces, it's probably going to be 3 through FA and one through trade. So, here's the puzzle, fill it in your own. SP Garze, blank, blank, cheap blank, Cashner, Shark, or McNutt BP Not worried about it, we've got the arms here C blank or Soto or Castillo 1B blank, hopefully Prince 2B blank or Barney SS Castro 3B blank or Stewart/Vitters/Lake LF blank CF B Jackson RF DeJesus Make the 4 bigtime upgrades wherever you want. In total, you've probably got 70 mill or so to do it AND still spend decently on IFA as well this winter. 3 20 mill guys and a traded for 10 mill guy. Payroll will be sustainable by doing this as well. And we've got a serious contender by then and going forward as well. Getting to this stage though, is more important to me than just 2012. So yes, I want us to add what we can right now, but not at the expense of the 4 big additions by next offseason. Basically, I don't want 2 or 3 year deals on average pitching or hitting that takes away money from this plan. Sign one year stopgaps to keep from doing that. I want a team that's fairly young going forward, heading to, or are in their primes. Prince, Cespedes, and Darvish fit those parameters. No other FA really did or does this year. Go get them, or it leaves that much more to do next year, without as many options to do it.

Short of a CJ Wilson type of situation, it's basically a guarantee at this point, that if you want an "elite" FA, you're GOING to overpay. People need to realize that. And there's nothing wrong with doing something like that either. You just have to count on your system to produce things around it, or allow a trade that fills those spots. We ARE a big market team. The last year or two of a deal should NEVER worry us. In Fielder's case, for instance, if we cave in and give him 8 years, we shouldn't be worried about who or how we're getting good cheap production in years 7 and 8. We have a fully functional and developing system by that point and it should be very easy. Soriano was supposed to cripple us. And according to the media, it has. But, they're wrong. We've got plenty of cash to spend this year and again next year as well. The key is go give truly "elite" players bigtime money. Soriano was not. Personally, I think Fielder is. Yes, I want some money spent towards the system immediately. Even at the expense of 2012. But, I'm talking 5 to 10 mill most likely. That kind of cash can do wonders in amping it back up, if spent correctly. It does not, however, preclude us from getting a Fielder, or a Darvish. Hell, you could make it work AND still make room for Cespedes as well, if you want to. We have lots of flexibility right now.

Why is Fielder clearly not coming?

Exactly how do you see the Cubs acquiring two impact bats and two impact arms without trading Garza using the Cubs' system? Do you think they have the pieces to obtain two of those impact players via trade or is it more likely three signings and one trade? I can't see two impact players being obtained with Cubs' prospects without absolutely emptying the system. I do agree that this will probably take two years. Just one through a trade, and probably not until after the draft next year, after it's been restocked somewhat. We'll have 4 picks inside the top 100 next year, counting the 2 supplemental picks. It's why I'm advocating spending as much as we can on IFA between now and then as well. Take full advantage of the opportunity to restock as possible. Adding Jorge Soler, if we think he's a potential star is very important. Even if we give him a 5 year deal for over 20 mill. Maybe look at Anelki Garcia Speck, this Concepcion kid that's 19, the Korean pitcher represented by Boras, the Dominican pitchers left unsigned from last year's July signing period. And anyone else that may have an impact. I'd love to see 10 or 12 mill spent doing this. It'd make it a hell of a lot easier to trade off Szczur or McNutt or Baez or whoever else, if it nets us an impact guy. Because we'd have guys in the system looking like they'll soon be able to fill in around the impact guys we're spending heavily on. Because starting with the draft next year, it really seems like it's going to be much harder to build a system quickly. And for us to sustain longterm success, it's just as important as signing the bigname FA, as far as I'm concerned.

Yes, I am. One, because I think truly elite teams usually do. Two, because I see no real way to where the offense is going to be much more than average by then. I'm not necessarily saying we should sign 2 bigtime FA SP though. Hopefully, one will come through trade. Ideally a younger cost controlled guy that doesn't kill the payroll. Let's us find some offense basically.

Are you willing give Hamel seven or eight years? I love Hamels, but my answer would be "it depends." Who else is guaranteed to be in our rotation next year? Do we still have Garza? If not, do we have a reasonably suitable replacement. How much is it going to cost to sign Greinke, Cain, Danks, Liriano, McCarthy, or Sanchez? Who's on the trade market? If the answer is all of these guys are going to be expensive, we have Garza, and we have an offense that's at least passable, then the answer is "yes". If the move prevents us from doing other things though and we have multiple needs and not a lot of money available for this, then I'm going to reallocate it and try to fill things cheaper. Maybe through trades. I've said previously that I'm looking at this in a 2 year window. We have the money available over that period of time to come up with 2 impact bats and 2 impact pitchers, without neglecting the system in any way. How they get to this scenario, I don't care. It can all come next offseason. It can be 2 this offseason and 2 next. My guess though is it'll be one this offseason, one at the deadline, and 2 next offseason.

My short answer is this: We have 30 to 40 mill to spend in all likelihood. If we spend it on difference makers, I want it spent on guys in their primes or entering their primes. This means Fielder, Darvish, Cespedes, possibly Edwin Jackson, if he's cheap. Next year, we'll have around the same amount to spend. Again, spend it on guys who are young. This being said, I won't mind one bit if 10 mill or so from this year's payroll goes towards Soler and some other IFA, who can be difference makers down the road possibly. That's what I mean by building for now and for the future at the same time. Because to build a longterm success here, our system needs a bigtime infusion of top end talent. And it's not going to be easy to do with the new rules set to take affect.

Whatever. I'm already making plans to attend the "world's most cost-effective team" parade next year. The goal IS to put the best team you can out on the field each and every year. But, doing it at the expense of the future is stupid. Theo's not stupid. Nor have we missed out on ANYONE that can help both "in the now" and "in the future". If we miss out on Fielder, Darvish, and Cespedes, then I'll raise an eyebrow, but even then, we can still field a team capable of winning a very weakened division, such as ours is going to be. "At the expense of the future" is an obvious strawman argument. No one is asking to completely mortgage the future for next year. That doesn't mean you don't try to win next year, and, to this point, the Cubs are a worse team than their crappy 2011 team. Regardless, signing marquee free agents always -- always -- comes with such risk. To sign the best, you generally have to live with overpayment at the tail end of the deal. That's life as a big boy club. Second, claiming the Cubs haven't missed out on anyone that helps the present and future is patently false. Wilson and Pujols both would have helped present and future. Caveats obviously apply to both, but both players would have helped both next year and in future seasons. It's not a "strawman" argument whatsoever. Yeah, Pujols and Wilson have been signed. There were and ARE better longterm answers for us STILL out there. Of course, we're going to have to overpay if we land either Fielder or Darvish as well. Is it worth it? I don't know, neither do you and neither does Theo. But, you don't go out and shoot your wad just because you can either. I hope we do get Fielder. I kind of want Darvish. But, Theo may not want either, for all we know. Maybe he wants to spend heavily on IFA right now, sign Kuroda, Beltran, and trade for Kendry Morales for this offseason, so he can load up next offseason with those guys falling off the books, plus Z, Dempster, Byrd. Maybe he knows Matt Cain and Zack Greinke both want to play here? Maybe he knows Cole Hamels does? Maybe not. But who knows? Certainly not me. Neither do you. But if he wants to spend freely next year and sign some one year contract guys for this year, I'm fine with it. He'll figure out a way to be better than last year and it won't hurt our future either. But, for a team that has as many holes as it does and a very average system as well, if he wants to concentrate on the system part more for a season or two, who's to blame him? He'll put a good enough major league team out there, because he knows how to. But, if you want a guy who's going to blow through 35 or 40 mill on 2 guys just because he has the budget to do so, I really, really think you're going to be disappointed. He's not going for a quick fix and get us to 85-88 wins for a 2 or 3 year period. He's going to build it to where we're going to be a perennial 90 win team. That takes time. A hell of a lot more than the month he's been given to date.

Whatever. I'm already making plans to attend the "world's most cost-effective team" parade next year. The goal IS to put the best team you can out on the field each and every year. But, doing it at the expense of the future is stupid. Theo's not stupid. Nor have we missed out on ANYONE that can help both "in the now" and "in the future". If we miss out on Fielder, Darvish, and Cespedes, then I'll raise an eyebrow, but even then, we can still field a team capable of winning a very weakened division, such as ours is going to be.

I think they gave up way too much here, but I'm not going to compare Cahill to Wells. I know their stats are probably similar, but Cahill will be younger for the next couple of seasons than Wells was before he even made his debut in the bigs. Maybe if Wells hadn't caught for so long, I could see this as a good comp. But I do expect Cahill to still improve from here on out. But he's not worth Parker, not by any stretch.

I like Cahill quite a bit honestly. I know he doesn't K a bunch of guys, but he does get a lot of groundballs and he doesn't turn 24 until March. But good lord, they're getting Parker plus more? Don't get me wrong, Breslow is a solid second piece, but damn.......Maybe it's because Breslow has 2 years of control and Cahill has up to 6 years of control, after a 4 year 29 mill guarantee left on his current deal.

Very easily actually. With the current roster, we're basically at 110ish, counting buyouts, deferrments, and Kerry Wood returning around 2.5millish. This is for the entire 40 man roster.If we added Kuroda for 1/12 or 2/22, and/or Beltran for around the same money, we're already there. Don't count us out on a guy like Beltran either. Short term deal, very solid player. May be a guy that builds value to where he's tradeable at the deadline or maybe even a guy you can offer the 12 mill to next offseason, have him decline and get the comp for. Edwin Jackson is still out there and at his age, whether we like it or not, he's probably on Theo's radar, especially if his market is also slow to develop. Of course, you have Cespedes. Who knows what he winds up with? my guess is a ton, especially with the Marlins involved there. Somebody like Maholm may cost a decent amount on a one year deal. Plus, there's always a chance we wind up back with Pena at 1B. This doesn't even take into account that with the minor league budget getting zapped by MLB, there could be a spending spree by us on this front, before the July deadline. That money would come off the major league side as well.

Kyle, who did you want at 3B for us in 2012?

If this guy is as quirky as has been reported a few times, his demand of 20 mill plus per season makes sense. His dad supposedly said he wouldn't even make his mind up to be posted until mid January. What changed there? My honest guess is he doesn't really want to come over this year. but IF a team paid him THAT much, he would anyway. If this isn't the case, try to win the posting fee, feel him out as to what his demands are and if you feel like he's almost unsignable, go ahead and spend on other things. Come back to him right before the time limit, offer him a Daisuke deal and if he accepts, then great, if not, let him walk.

I don't know either, but maybe we need to really start asking this. To me, a superstar SHOULD go out of his way to recruit players that will help take the team to the next level. Rose certainly doesn't do this. Is he being selfish? I don't really think so. But he needs to change somewhat about this, or else he may never have a team around him that's good enough to go all the way either. If it's shyness, he needs to get over it somehow. If he thinks he's good enough to not need a 1A to fall back on, he needs to get over that as well.

Heading into Theo's reign, our offseason needs were a 1B, 3B, OF help, and at least 2 SP. And to upgrade our minor league system by a large amount. There's a budget involved as well here. We have somewhere between 30 and 40 mill to do all of this. We spent a tad over 4 mill on a guy who's going to be just as good as the guy he replaced and it will be done at a third of the previous guy's cost. We certainly downgraded 3B. But it's definitely possible we'll get half of Aramis' WAR at about a fifth of his cost as well. Small market moves? Yessir. Absolutely. But now, there is more money to spend on 1B, SP, and the minors, if we want to. And considering what we have to replace at those spots, it's at least highly likely we're about to come out way ahead of where we were last year at those spots. We're trying to upgrade from Pena at 1B and Wells and a combo of Ortiz/Lopez/Davis/Coleman as far as pitching goes.this sets up very nicely for Theo to improve this team quite a bit the rest of this month and January.

Theo should have cloned a 25 year old David Wright, in anticipation of us needing a 3B. Then, he should have given up Blake Lalli to obtain him. If he doesn't get Fielder for 4 years and 20 million TOTAL, he sucks. Oh, and he better have every mailman on the take, so he can steal away all the bids on Darvish. If we don't win the posting fee for 500,000 or less, it's because Theo didn't do his job.

Theo said we were looking for guys that we would be paying for future performance for, not their past. So far this offseason, there has been some closers signed, a 32 year old 1B for 275 mill, a 32 year old starter for 58 mill, a 30 year old starter that's started for 2 years for 77.5 mill and a SS with an injury history signed for 106 mill at 29. Still on the market is a 27 year old 1B with huge power, a 25 year old future ace, and a 26 year old Cuban with huge upside. Very few trades have went down, especially ones with impact players involved. So, with this being said, what exactly was Theo supposed to have done by now? Make Pujols sign last week, so Boras would get the market going for Fielder quicker? Maybe travel to Japan and post Darvish himself? He should have stayed on top of Cespedes, so he'd already have signing eligibility by now, right? Theo sucks, it's completely obvious. Give him time guys, he's inherited an absolute mess. There's no one we could have right now that's going to build this thing any quicker. We're like a month in, let's give him a few years before we even start to question what he's doing. And by then, there won't be any reason to question anything.