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ConstableRabbit

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Everything posted by ConstableRabbit

  1. ConstableRabbit
    I definitely wasn't disputing that. More the argument that this team, which is 8th in OBP, 8th in slugging, and 10th in home runs is somehow overly dependent on hitting home runs. I did find today that they rank fifth in MLB in the largest percentage of runs scored via the home run. Now, I admit I suck at math and don't know what that means in terms of mattering, but I do think we rely on the dong a lot. However, I also am always looking to get more knowledge and, again, fully admit I probably don't know what I'm talking about. That isn't necessarily a bad thing though -- their runs have zero dependance on opponent defense, for example.
  2. ConstableRabbit
    I get that. The roster is deficient. But Maddon's insistence on using Almora as much as he's done makes it even more inefficient. Saying you'd play Almora everyday is nonsensical. It's not a solution to anything. You can critique the roster all you want but that still doesn't justify Almora's playing time. With the way Heyward has played pretty much all year, even with the Descalsos of the roster, you could still kinda look at it as Bote vs Almora. The fact that Almora has 33 more PAs of putting up a 70 wRC vs Bote's 100 is pretty inexcusable. It could be a tradeoff situation using metrics we aren't aware of. Example: if Almora doesn't play, you need to put Heyward in CF which means he's not in RF. Maybe the Cubs value him more in RF and worried about that drop. It also means Bryant is in RF because Castellanos/Schwarber can't play RF, which means Bote is playing 3B. For example if the Cubs think that: Almora defense in CF > Heyward defense in CF Heyward defense in RF > Bryant defense in RF Bryant defense at 3B > Bote defense at 3B Then there's a possibility that the above outweighs Bote vs. Almora at the plate. I don't believe those pieces to be true but the Cubs might. If they think that way, my hypothesis is that Zobrist coming back will make Almora more expendable.
  3. ConstableRabbit
    What? At some point you almost have to use them? That's not been the issue with Almora. He's been used early and often. That sentence is not specifically about Almora, but about the dead weight in general. The bench has been trash all season. Joe doesn’t have a 25 man roster. He can’t keep trotting our the same 8 position players everyday. Because, less face it, a couple of those guys aren’t everyday players. For example, Descalso has like 6 PAs since July 5th and has only been on the IL for 10 days in that period.
  4. ConstableRabbit
    Joe being forced to play Almora because he was Theo's first pick or something.
  5. ConstableRabbit
    Over the last calendar year, there are 165 guys who have had at least 450 plate appearances. Players with a lower wRC+ than Almora: Brandon Crawford Billy Hamilton He's 163 of 165 players. That's right, the bottom 1%. 99% of players have performer better than Almora. Over the course of the second half of this season, of Cubs hitters, he’s tied for last in fWAR (Taylor Davis, Maldonado, and the entire pitching staff are ahead of him). Over that span he's putting up .217./236/.391 .260 wOBA 2.7% BB rate, 27.4% K rate Am I missing something? Why is he still on the team and why is he playing so much? He's also never been sent down since being called up!
  6. ConstableRabbit
    Soccer and ?????? Surely you're not suggesting that ice hockey has the same pace of play as soccer. SURELY it's even more irritatingly fast paced and low scoring This is a really weird take from a baseball fan of all people — the sport everyone who doesn’t understand the intricacies calls “boring”. Do you also hate pitchers duels? The beauty is in the nuance.
  7. ConstableRabbit
    Yu since the break (5 starts): 29 IP, 2 BB, 38 K, 2.17 ERA, .198 BAA
  8. ConstableRabbit
    You didn't specify which Cubs... https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/team.cgi?id=01882b48 Fair point. I guess that since I posted his ML career ERA folks would take for granted I was talking about the Chicago Cubs. You know, I don't think I'd ever looked at his stats at Iowa before. I vaguely remember him giving them a "call me up or turn me loose" ultimatum, but looking at the numbers and knowing what the pitching staff was like that year it's a bit surprising that they didn't give him a shot. 17 IP, 12 walks, 3 WP really stood out to me as the AAA statline of a guy who would crush at the MLB level.
  9. ConstableRabbit
    Edit: it’s been 16 years, we’re allowed to laugh about this now right? I was at the game and never saw this angle until now. Wtf.
  10. ConstableRabbit
    I don’t see that being the case. He’s likely more valuable to us than what he returns. Even if he only costs like $29 mil the next two years total on options. 1B aren’t valued that highly and then we’d have to replace him with some clod like Matt Adams or Mitch Moreland. I’d be surprised if Rizzo returned much more than a Cishek level RP, a top 100 but not top 75 prospect and a lotto ticket A ball prospect. Just give him 4/60-80 with 1-2 option years (either team, mutual or vesting based on performance benchmarks). But if 1B aren't valued highly, why pay more than we have to for these cheap option years instead of waiting until he's a FA? We'll know more of what he is by then anyway. I love Rizzo, TOOTBLANs be damned, but given how inflexible the team has been with the payroll, would rather spend that incremental money on actual holes on the roster.
  11. ConstableRabbit
    Happ already has more fWAR than Almora.
  12. ConstableRabbit
    Schwarber's outfield defense might be irrelevant at this point. With Contreras dealing with his second strained hammy in two years plus the strained foot earlier this year, they have to be considering a permanent move to the outfield for him. Which would mean deciding whether to keep Schwarber as a platoon catcher/backup OF or shopping him for a starting catcher. I’m sorry are you implying that the Cubs are going to use Schwarber at catcher?
  13. ConstableRabbit
    I love Javy and think Ryno is boring and annoying as horsefeathers but picking Javy is absolutely insane.
  14. ConstableRabbit
    Why begrudgingly? It was a great signing.
  15. ConstableRabbit
    https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/cubs/ct-cubs-road-woes-theo-epstein-joe-maddon-20190802-sgkdx6nmjfca3pc4xqio23hrty-story.html
  16. ConstableRabbit
    We don't take kindly to bootlickers around these parts mate https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/ or, if you prefer https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/2019-mlb-opening-day-payrolls-red-sox-cubs-yankees-open-season-above-competitive-balance-tax-threshold/ They're spending money, they're just spending it poorly. And really, they're inflexible year to year. We've been hearing that we'll get a bump from the network: if you think you have a chance to make a big impact, borrow against it! One "benefit" of being more rigid this season is that we'll soon learn whether said bump is real...
  17. ConstableRabbit
    He's a better hitting Almora who can also play 2B and we got him for a catcher we probably weren't going to play. I approve.
  18. ConstableRabbit
    GTFO with having "2019 NLC Champs" next to the Cardinals.
  19. ConstableRabbit
    Counterpoint: Chapman’s 8 out save almost lost us the WS. maddon's decision to use him in game 6 is what almost cost us. the 8 out save couldn't possibly have been more needed. Ha! Yes I confused the games. Game 5 was epic.
  20. ConstableRabbit
    Weird, because I've always hated it. I get that the price wasn't a roster-buster, but it still seemed like a doomed acquisition. Even in its most successful version, he was going to be a closer you had to handle like a piece of china. No long saves. No (or infrequent, IIRC) back-to-back days of usage. Bingo. Considering we were coming off postseasons in which we A) won the title in large part because of Chapman's 8-out save in Game 5 of the Series and B) advanced to the NLCS in large part because of Wade Davis' 7-out save in Game 5 against Washington, it was straight-up stupid to then go sign a closer you knew damn well you were never going to be able to use that way even if he didn't break before then. The minute he wasn't able to pitch the day after throwing 2 damn pitches in Miami because he had supposedly warmed up too much, I knew that one was a losing move. Counterpoint: Chapman’s 8 out save almost lost us the WS.
  21. ConstableRabbit
    We know, you’d much prefer to see JORTS.
  22. ConstableRabbit
    I mean, he’s been all over the place all season. If he can’t be trusted to come into a high leverage situation without major control issues, he’s going to be treated like just another guy.
  23. ConstableRabbit
    What even happened to Castro? He kinda just began to suck and it kind of seemed like it came out of nowhere. Even at his peak, most of Starlin's value came from batting average and positional value. Moving to 2nd, the launch angle/juiced ball devaluing the hit tool more, and some decline as he maybe didn't have his 20 year old twitch reactions in his late 20s mostly did him in as a regular(or at least an above average one). I don’t even mean in terms of value — he kind of fell off a cliff at age 25 coming off what had arguably been his best season. Halved his walk rate, no power, stopped making hard contact, etc. I know he changed positions but was there a mechanical reason for this drop?
  24. ConstableRabbit
    Castro is a really good comp. I'd expect a few more walks but that's not enough for me to quibble. Yeah I like a Starlin/Lemahieu (taking out some of the Coors inflation) type with more walks as a comp and also at least a little more versatile defensively. What even happened to Castro? He kinda just began to suck and it kind of seemed like it came out of nowhere.
  25. ConstableRabbit
    Sounds like he really got.. Expos-ed
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