bukie
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Everything posted by bukie
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If I were Lou, I'd stick with Petrick in the 8th, with Howry ready to go in the 9th if there's trouble. Ohman would only be worth it on Helton or Hawpe, but Helton's coming up too early in the inning here. -
Hopefully the kid can get through the 8th giving up no more than a run, and the Cubs can add about 3 more, so it's safe going into the 9th.
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There are misses in any system, and it could turn out to be correct about Fazekas too. Yi also falls outside the system. Oh, I'm not saying there aren't misses, I'm just concerned that the 3 potential "biggest busts" are all likely to be there when the Bulls pick, and I have a hard time seeing the Bulls pass on all of them. EDIT: That and Brandan Wright is rated so high, and yet is disappointing in workouts (so I've heard).
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When looking at a player most people use their 3 year averages, all I did was add this season to that. Who cares what someone did 4+ years ago? 4 years ago Sosa was a 35+ HR hitter still. One year of good stats can be a fluke so easily you want to look at more than 1, two years can still be pretty flukey especially with a guy like say Peralta who had one good and one bad year. Three years gives you a decent size sample. You guys are really stretching things to try to make your argument. How are we stretching things to say Zambrano has been a better pitcher than Sheets outside of April and May of '07? Take any year, take any 3-year split, take the whole career, coming into this year, Zambrano was better than Sheets every year aside from '04 which could be called a wash. Yes, we know, Zambrano had a lousy start to this year. Very lousy,, even so much as to push his "3.5 year splits" about even with Sheets.
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So if it came down to Brewer, Yi, and Hawes, the correct choice should be...Fazekas? Yikes.
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Lots of room for improvement for Brandan, no doubt. But he'd be a steal at 9 and I like him more than Julian -- both in terms of fit for the Bulls and ceiling. Hollinger put together a college prospect ranking system recently. Good read (it's free!) and interesting tool. It's high on Brandan Wright. Certainly makes TT and Deng look good.
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For the Cubs to win the wildcard, they would have no choice but to play very well for an extended time. For the Cubs to win the division, they would be able to back into it by playing averagely if the rest of the division plays poorly. Given the Cubs' play this year, the second scenario seems to be more likely.
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What signed?
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Now take out 2007. What do you see? Ok, don't take out 2007, but add 2003. What do you see? What you have is an entirely convenient block of statistics that fit your argument if you ignore stats before 2004. Also, if 2007 is removed, the stats tip in Zambrano's favor just for 2004-2006 as well. Nobody here is arguing that Zambrano is having a good year, let alone better than Sheets. What people are saying is that coming into this year, there is no metric by which you could say Sheets is a better pitcher than Zambrano.
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Please be a blow out in the Cubs favor, though. And, for the record, it appears 8-3 is not a blowout.
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Apparently the only way to win the argument is to ignore all stats that don't support it, and include only years that support it. He should have merely included 2007, because then it's a slam-dunk argument.
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Ahh, I see, you mean the last 4 years to ignore 2003 to better support your argument, since Zambrano was significantly better that year. In each individual year, Zambrano has also been better. It's just so far in 2007 where Zambrano has been horrible. You can't remove 2007, but you also can't take it as an average representation of the kind of pitcher Zambrano has been, especially if you want to assume Sheets would pitch just as well for the entire year had he not been injured. EDIT: Cute, you also totally disregard metrics that don't support your arguments as well. Why is ERA+ a garbage metric? Just because they calculate park factors based on performance in that park? It's not perfect, but it's no more a garbage metric than any comprehensive metric, which of course all support Zambrano prior to this year's performance.
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There is no reason to believe this, Sheets has been better over the past 4 seasons (albeit with an injury) and he's been better this year. At best its a push, at worse its advantage Sheets. Ok, now I hate position-by-position comparisons as much as the next guy, since they are truly a meaningless "metric" of team comparison, but there is no way Sheets has been better than Zambrano over the past 4 seasons. This year, absolutely. 2003-2006, Zambrano has had a higher ERA+, better ERA, higher VORP, and more Win Shares each year. Sheets beats him in walk rate easy, but that's about it.
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Summary of my thought: If the Cubs are going to insist on playing .500 ball for the rest of the year, their only hope is that the rest of their division plays pathetically. They are absolutely not going to be able to catch anyone for the wild card playing .500 ball. However, if the Cubs can put together a long (like, 3 month long) string of good ball, say, .600 or better, then the Cubs will make up ground on the league of their own accord. Playing .600 ball from here on out would put the Cubs at 89 wins. If Milwaukee continues playing as they have, 89 wins won't be able to win the division. However, 89 wins is not outside the realm of a wildcard berth. Given the Cubs' performance up to this point, I'd say the far more likely scenario would be a mix of the two, which would make the wildcard out of the question and force the Cubs to hope the Brewers collapse. The better the Cubs play, the less dependence on other teams.
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Biggio Playing Only One Game In Milwaukee
bukie replied to vance_the_cubs_fan's topic in General Baseball Talk
Of course, this strategy could backfire for Biggio, and he may not get 3 hits in during that homestand. Then what? I have an odd feeling that the Cubs could factor greatly into the Biggio and Bonds milestones. -
At this point I'd be pretty disappointed in a 3-3 homestand.
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It's June 26, and the Cubs have the same record as the Yankees. Not quite the same ring as could have been expected, though.
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In game threads, posters get caught up in the heat of the moment just like a fan who is watching the game on TV or in person. This type of posting is to be expected, especially after the Cubs blew a big lead in the 9th inning. Sure, some posters might look bad as they post while getting caught up in the moment, but as long as they don't violate any board rules, I don't see any problem. Exactly. I don't see that last night's thread is any worse or different than any game thread where a lot happens, both good and bad. I just tend to avoid such threads until after the game. Really fun reads, actually, in hindsight.
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It's a game thread. People went through a ton of emotions last night. What's with all the English teacher's coming out of the word work and telling people how they should post? Who cares? "word work"? Leave me alone. :oops: [jerk]Also, "teacher's" is possessive, "teachers" is plural.[/jerk] :wink: Who said it was plural? I see one guy. ;)
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I arbitrarily award this win to Wuertz, who was the only pitcher who didn't give up 3 runs. So, Wuertz has an honorary win.
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Finally the Cubs managed to win a game they tried to give away.
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Thanks for sliding, Thome.
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My feelings on the trade are thus: For a giveaway trade, it could have been worse. Thankfully the Cubs gave up nothing else of value, and nothing they got back is blocking anything important. Not that the trade had to be made in the first place, but they didn't get fleeced.
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There needs to be an image that involves the goat from the AFLAC commercials going "Nah!".
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2001 was a solid team as well that was ruined by Baylor's veteran and Felix Heredia fetish. Sosa, Rondell White, Bill Mueller, Fred McGriff, Matt Stairs, Gutierrez at SS (quite the solid offensive year at SS compared to the team lately), EY and GMJ arguably the weak link of the offense (of course, batting 1-2 thanks to Baylor). Mueller getting hurt at StL that year really hurt the offense, but they were above average in pretty much every single category. I'd definitely rank 2001, 2003, and 2004 way up there in terms of potential and ability. 1998, I'm still not sure how that team finished so well.
