So now we're about 5 days from the deadline, and with both leagues having playoff spots up for grabs among teams even hovering near .500, very few teams are truly out of it. Here's the landscape for the league as of this morning:
1. Teams that are clearly in seller mode (< 5% chance of playoffs) (7): Angels, Rockies, Royals, Mets, Giants, Athletics, Reds
There aren't a ton of great options here for pitching, especially long term. Mets bullpen has some short term options. Reds might be hesitant to deal with the Cubs, but I'd at least kick the tires on some of their pitchers (*cough* Greene *cough*), as they have a dearth of offensive options and are probably unloading their older hitters at the deadline like Suarez and Stephenson.
2. Teams that could still squint and see a way to play into contentiion (< 25% chance of playoffs) (5): Blue Jays, Nationals, Marlins, Padres, Cardinals
Basically the Blue Jays streaking their way into contention since the AL is terrible, and the .500 NL teams that don't have good underlying numbers suggesting they'll fall off. They could fool themselves into panic buying here at the deadline (I mean, I don't put it past the Padres, who continue to operate like they're a fantasy team of statistics without any consideration for team composition). Any of these teams lose the next couple games, they'll convert to for sure sellers, and there are some really good pitching options here that the Cubs should try to pry away, like Gausman, but I have a hard time seeing any of these teams going full rebuild right now, save maybe the Padres.
3. AL teams that are in contention because the AL is garbage, and NL teams that can snag the last wildcard spot, but the World Series is not really in play (11): Twins, Astros, Orioles, Tigers, Pirates, White Sox, Guardians, Mariners, Rangers, Red Sox, Diamondbacks
I don't expect any of these teams to give up at this point, as the AL Central and West are not strong, and anyone could leap into a playoff spot with a week of good play. Twins and Tigers are probably the closest to borderline here, but they're still right there and it could be hard to get good assets here (Ryan, Skubal) without a huge overpay that makes it worth their time. Lots of these teams are just looking at making the playoffs as a success, so I don't see them sandbagging that for the future unless they can really get bonus value for expiring assets.
4) Actual contenders that are favorites to make the playoffs and have a realistic shot at the WS (7): Phillies, Cubs, Yankees, Rays, Braves, Brewers, Dodgers
These are the true buyers this year, the teams that are a piece or two away from a WS trip. Also the competition with the Cubs for some of the pitching options on the market. It's on the Cubs to decide whether to go all in for a shot this year or stay the course another year, but they really need at least one starter option and one bullpen option to feel better about this year's chances, even if they can get guys like Steele, Palencia and Brown back before the season is over.