Rob
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Everything posted by Rob
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Disagree with you. Fuku's contract is a sunk cost. Colvin's contract in comparison is minimal. Colvin is younger, will be cheaper and is under team contract for longer than Fukudome. The team should be thinking about the future not this year. Wow... what the hell were you responding to? 1.) I wasn't trying to say whether benching Fukudome in favor of Colvin was the right move or not, I was just laying out the financial side of the argument. So the argument regarding Colvin as younger, cheaper, etc... is responding to something I never said. 2.) Fukudome's contract is not a sunk cost. A sunk cost is defined when you have no ability to recover any portion of the money. Even the most enthusiastic of Fukudome haters out there have to admit that before the benching, he had some trade value. We would have had to eat some of his contract, of course. But we would not have had to eat the whole thing. Therefore, not a sunk cost. 3.) Playing Colvin necessitates benching Fukudome. Benching Fukudome negatively impacts his trade value. Therefore, playing Colvin over Fukudome has a cost equal to the decline of Fukudome's trade value ... in this case, certainly a few million dollars. We aren't getting increased production out of Colvin, so the only real question to ask ourselves is are we getting our money's worth by getting an extended look at Colvin + any increased trade value Colvin may accrue?
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Colvin is costing us money by virtue of the fact that starting him in place of Fukudome (without any real gain in production) has completely tanked what was left of Fukudome's contract... so we'll have to eat the whole contract to move him. Is the better look we're getting at Colvin worth that money? Time will tell. Colvin is paid less and is providing pretty damn close to equal production, but that doesn't mean starting him was the right move in the short term.
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I wouldn't read too much into the Pods vs. Castro thing. It's all about which defensive stats they've chosen to use... Pods comes in at -2 according to TZ, -8.2 according to UZR, and -13 according to BIS. Castro comes in at -13 according to TZ, -1.7 according to UZR, and +5 according to BIS. Using more data is always a good thing, so to get a better idea of what all three defensive systems are saying as opposed to just the one we can average em out and you have Pods at -7.7 and Castro at -3.2 as defenders. That's four and a half run advantage for Castro instead of an 11 run disadvantage. That's pretty huge.
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I don't get the Fukudome hate. I guess it's a combination of his streakiness and the contract, but still... terrible isn't an adjective that should be used to describe him.
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Albert Pujols: Glenn Beck Medal of Hope Recipient
Rob replied to Mark Priors Calves's topic in General Baseball Talk
I wouldn't mind receiving his paychecks. -
It's especially troublesome when it doesn't fit your pre-existing bias on a player. Or when it's propped up by SLG and has a really bad OBP. Like Soriano's lifetime stats ? Except Sori's lifetime OBP is higher than Colvin's, and Sori's SLG isn't also propped up by an unsustainable HR/FB rate. In defense of Colvin, his HR/FB rate is probably due for regression, but he hasn't exactly been getting lucky here. He's earned that rate so far this year. http://www.hittrackeronline.com/parks/Colvin_Tyler_2010_scatter.jpg He probably isn't about to join the upper echelon of power hitters like his current rate would suggest, but this is an extremely positive sign from a young player entering his prime years.
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Dunn to the White Sox (p. 12)
Rob replied to Post Count Padder's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Dunn does not have a skillset that ages well. If the contract is short and sweet, I'd love to have him. If we're talking 4/50, I'm out. I'll be real interested to see what he gets, since front offices seem to either love him or want to stay the hell away. Billy Butler > Adam Dunn (with short contract) > Adrian Gonzalez (with market value extension) > Adam Dunn (with bigger pact) > Adrian Gonzalez (let him walk after season) > Prince Fielder (let him walk) > Carlos Pena > Lance Berkman > Jorge Cantu > Derrek Lee > Russell Branyan > Paul Konerko > Lyle Overbay > AAAA filler > David Ortiz > Prince Fielder (with market value extension) -
Sammy Sosa has some things to say about the Cubs
Rob replied to UMFan83's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
He was our cheater. -
i spent so much (relatively) money as a kid trying to get that frigging ron gant fleer rookie card My first "major" purchase as a kid was saving up to buy one of the full boxes of cards, instead of just 2-3 packs at a time.
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i spent so much (relatively) money as a kid trying to get that frigging ron gant fleer rookie card My first "major" purchase as a kid was saving up to buy one of the full boxes of cards, instead of just 2-3 packs at a time.
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I've still got dozens of Doug Dascenzo cards... try finding anybody in grade school who wants to trade for that one. I think Topps was stacking the packs with those...
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WWRDD has long been the motto I live by.
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Sorry Castillo, you had your shot to really wow us. Hill will be the primary backup next season.
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i didnt realize how great dewitt had been since coming over. that's encouraging. Those are the old numbers. Through tonight's game he's at .338/.405/.507
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A promotion for Kyler Burke, Raisin? I'd think it's more likely he's working on his conversion to pitching than playing OF in Tennessee to start next year.
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As if it couldn't suck enough to hire a manager that openly mocks sabermetric principles, we'd have to hire the one that was my favorite childhood player... That'll teach me.
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LALALALALALLALALALA I'M NOT LISTENING Good work. Baseball before the 90s is still pure. That was a close call.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes 8-22-10
Rob replied to Outshined_One's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
If only -
Just because this seems as good a place as any for it... the NL's top ten WAR is as follows: 1. Ryan Zimmerman - 6.1 2. Andres Torres - 5.4 3. Albert Pujols - 5.4 4. Joey Votto - 5.4 5. Matt Holliday - 4.7 6. Aubrey Huff - 4.6 7. Dan Uggla - 4.5 8. Adrian Gonzalez - 4.4 9. Kelly Johnson - 4.4 10. Rickie Weeks - 4.3 Marlon Byrd ranks 11th on the list, also with 4.3 WAR. Edit: Oh, and if you buy into the idea that pitchers should be able to win the MVP, here's the list including them. 1. Roy Halladay - 6.5 2. Ryan Zimmerman - 6.1 3. Josh Johnson -5.6 4. Andres Torres - 5.4 5. Albert Pujols - 5.4 6. Joey Votto - 5.4 7. Adam Wainwright - 5.0 8. Matt Holliday - 4.7 9. Ubaldo Jimenez - 4.7 10. Aubrey Huff - 4.6
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes 8-20-10
Rob replied to Outshined_One's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Does yesterday's game not count? -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes 8-19-10
Rob replied to Outshined_One's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Well, I believe the original plan for Lee was to start at Peoria before his Tommy John surgery. Since Kim got $1.2 million, I think he probably will be advanced as Rhee if he shows up healthy. It wouldn't be a big disappointment if he started at Boise but I don't think Mesa is likely since no Korean kid has yet to start there (Rhee debuted at Peoria, Lee, Ha, Jung and Na debuted at Boise). Maybe this is worth noting, maybe it isn't, but I seem to recall that the cubs liked to make sure there were a few other people who spoke korean when deciding where to place everybody, so that the new guy would have an easier time adjusting. -
The short answer is that we have no idea what his repeatable skills are, since his production changes so radically year to year. Sometimes he hits for average, sometimes he doesn't. Sometimes he hits for power, sometimes he doesn't. Hell, sometimes he walks, sometimes he doesn't.
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Weirdly enough, 1B is really hard to get a good read on with defensive metrics. I mean, we can figure out how good somebody is at fielding grounders, pop flys, and line shots around the bag... but being able to scoop throws out of the dirt? That's tougher. And I haven't seen enough of Dunn's glovework at 1B to feel comfortable speculating.
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Cubs are only 2.5 games back of Arizona for the #3 pick right now.
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Tons of factors. Age, bench players, injuries, etc... Also worth noting is that Defensive Efficiency is simply the reverse of batting average on balls in play. It just keeps track of whether or not the play was made... not whether it should have been made. So it is possible the opposing teams had a disproportionate number of times where they simply managed to "hit em where they aint," so to speak. I would caution against chalking the whole thing up to bad luck though, we've definitely gotten a bit worse in the field the last few years. UZR would take into account the factors listed in your first line. It would also taken into account whether we've gotten worse in the field from '09 to '10. I'm aware. I was just responding to (what I interpreted to be) mojo asking how our defensive efficiency could have tanked so quickly. Now that I'm rereading it, it seems he's wondering about the discrepancy between UZR and DE.
