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Rob

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Everything posted by Rob

  1. Rob
    You buying?
  2. Rob
    A good beekeeper would make the bees act nice.
  3. Rob
    I'd be forced to murder Jim Hendry if he gave up Cashner for Young.
  4. Rob
    I wont deny people misunderstand and misuse numbers all the time, but what about the synopsis makes you think the book is trying to educate people about statistics? Barring some craziness like the authors mother writing the synopsis, it's pretty clear they're just pointing at singular incidents and indignantly saying "your numbers didn't say that was going to happen, did they?"
  5. Rob
    Things would have to play out just about perfectly for me to be okay with picking him up. We'd have to give up almost nothing, the Rangers would have to pay the vast majority of his salary, and he'd have to be okay with playing in a capacity as the short side of the 2B platoon and as backup at 1B and 3B. Otherwise, I just don't see it as being worth it.
  6. Rob
    Rob I respect your opinion and we can usually have a civilized discussion even when we disagree. If you haven't picked up on it already, I'm mostly just pushing back against the mindset (clearly prevalent in this thread) that anything that is at all anti-sabermetric must automatically be a worthless pile of trash. I'm explicitly not trying to defend the book or its premise, primarily since I haven't even read it. I just think some of the pro-saber folks in here are coming off like pompous arrogant fools with their reflexive rush to judgement. Hey, I respect you enough to assume you knew the premise was indefensible. I wont deny for a moment that there may be a few tasty morsels of corn in the dung heap that is this book. It'd be quite impressive if they managed to write up an entire book and not make a couple good points. But ultimately, the rush to judgement in this case has to be considered warranted. If they cannot even write a synopsis that isn't riddled with illogical conclusions like sabermetrics not working for the Red Sox, the odds this book is anything but a trainwreck are nearly insignificant... tasty corn morsels or no.
  7. Rob
    davearm, stop being so damned predictable. The premise of the book is clearly laid out in the press release, and you know as well as anybody that there's no way to defend it.
  8. Rob
    You hate to see it, but I never find myself surprised when young guys make stupid decisions. Hopefully the Cubs put on a bit of a fire and brimstone show for Golden to get him to learn a lesson.
  9. Rob
    I wouldn't have a problem with Vitters getting a promotion if he's earned it, but I'd want it to be after the all-star break. Wouldn't bother me if he got a cup of coffee, either. If we end up letting Aramis walk after this season, I'm really curious as to how we handle 3B. Smith is probably the #1 option. If Vitters tore the cover off the ball all year this year, I wouldn't have a problem with letting him battle it out with Smith in ST for a shot at the job. We could always send him back down if he struggles. I could also see DJ getting a shot depending on his year, and I think the org would be willing to jump Flaherty up in a hurry as well if he was hitting well.
  10. Rob
    It's not reliable to within 2-3%. LD% isn't even kept track of at some parks.
  11. Rob
    The part of that I found interesting was Dan Szymborski's remark down in the comments section. "For what it’s worth, I have ZiPS giving the Cubs 83 wins (81 before the Garza) trade), tied for third with the post-Wainwright Cards and behind the 85-86 win total of the Reds and Brewers."
  12. Rob
    he made me touch myself http://explosm.net/db/files/Comics/Kris/stop.gif
  13. Rob
    This is about the best outcome I could have hoped to have seen from Silva's start.
  14. Rob
    Looks like Silva got in a fight after his disaster start today. It's great news, really.
  15. Rob
    Acceptable if and only if you're a first generation immigrant from the Dominican Republic and you bought that jersey before you came to America.
  16. Rob
    I had forgotten about Byrd batting 3rd. I really hope we don't have to see that again.
  17. Rob
    My guess. DeWitt Castro Pena Ramirez Colvin Byrd Soriano Soto
  18. Rob
    Not very
  19. Rob
    Well you know brown people, they're always too lazy to eat. What we need is to get a guy like John Kruk in the organization to show these guys the right way to hit a buffet.
  20. Rob
    hccf, there are quite a few advanced metrics you could look at but if we're trying to keep it as simple as possible just go to fangraphs and look under the advanced fielding section for UZR/150. It's basically how many runs above or below average a player is with the glove if they played in 150 games. Standard caveats apply. It's not exactly the most stable statistic so more information is always better. So try to look at more than 1 year. And if you do want the best idea possible, look at other statistics like total zone (on baseball reference) or dewan's plus/minus (labeled DRS on fangraphs). Look at the fans scouting report on tangotigers site. Listen to professional scouting reports, etc...
  21. Rob
    i don't think Dodgers are in it, unless McCourt sells the team Kansas City really doesn't make any sense and Nationals blew their load on Werth already this is how i see it now, in order of likelihood: Cards - Cubs - Yankees - Rangers - Angels - Red Sox - Marlins No Blue Jays? why would he go to Toronto, of all places, and how are they going to have the wherewithal to outspend everybody? they don't really make sense as a serious potential suitor Well, they've supported a payroll as high as 97 million as recently as 2008 and only have 17 million on the books for 2012. Even after adding in Bautista's contract (once details come) and arbitration raises, they've got an absolute boatload of money to spend, a good young core that's quite cheap in Arencibia, Lind, Snyder, Escobar, Romero, Morrow, and Cecil... not to mention Aaron Hill, who is still pretty good. Don't let the .196 BABIP fool ya. Oh, and a pretty good farm system. Don't get me wrong, it's gonna be hard as hell to compete. But this is the kind of move they need to make to do so, and they have the money.
  22. Rob
    i don't think Dodgers are in it, unless McCourt sells the team Kansas City really doesn't make any sense and Nationals blew their load on Werth already this is how i see it now, in order of likelihood: Cards - Cubs - Yankees - Rangers - Angels - Red Sox - Marlins No Blue Jays?
  23. Rob
    I wouldn't have done it, but I see why they did. I'd expect him to end up worth about that contract... but damn if it isn't risky. Or he made a legit adjustment last year and the Blue Jays got a hell of a deal. Who the hell knows? At any rate, the Blue Jays have tons of money to spend. This isn't exactly gonna stop them from being in on Pujols and Fielder.
  24. Rob
    With modern bullpens the way they are, there's always a wasted spot at the back of the bullpen. Do we really care if it's Jeff Samardzija or Wellemeyer or anybody else back there? They're gonna get used once every two weeks in a game we were already going to lose.
  25. Rob
    Ahhh, the powers of newbie gains. While a lot of these guys must have spent time in a weight room before, it's fairly obvious just from looking at their physiques that they had never really put their all into it. With proper nutrition and instruction, you can really pack on mass (and quickly) the first time you start to take it seriously. Could these guys continue to add 20 pounds of muscle every 3/4 months for the rest of their lives? Absolutely not. The law of diminishing marginal returns is in full effect here. But from a particularly lean base with excellent athleticism already on your side? It's absolutely possible to start off this quickly.
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