A Huge "What if?" Scenario: Zambrano for Abreu?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Ok, let me begin by stating my premise here. If we miss out on Furcal, that means the Cubs will have missed on two of the big three of FA's this offseason (Giles, Furcal, Burnett).

 

The Cubs will still have a lot of money left to spend (25 million by some accounts), and except through trades, have few commodities worth spending it on.

 

Could the Cubs, if losing out to Furcal, sign Burnett to the 5/50 they were offering to Furcal.

 

That would make a rotation of Prior, Wood, Zambrano, Maddux, Burnett, and Rusch with Williams and Hill on the outside looking in.

 

The Cubs could make smaller deals to bring in Bradley or Pierre and maybe Castillo. But to make a big splash, the Cubs could finally offer a frontline starter for Abreu.

 

The Cubs could trade Zambrano to the Phillies for Abreu and Padilla. Padilla would give the Cubs another potential starter and we know what Abreu provides. Zambrano would be the Cubs frontline starter.

 

I love Zambrano as much as the next guy, but this is something that I think should at least be considered.

[mul21]

I say no freaking way. It's too hard to find legit top of the rotation guys who can STAY HEALTHY and pitch 200+ innings a year. It would be great to have Abreu, but I don't like giving up the one sure thing in the rotation.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

Although I'd rather have Z if I were a Cubs fan Boras factor would concern me quite a bit. I think its pretty much a foregone conclusion Z will hit the FA market.

[Blueheart05]

Ok, let me begin by stating my premise here. If we miss out on Furcal, that means the Cubs will have missed on two of the big three of FA's this offseason (Giles, Furcal, Burnett).

 

The Cubs will still have a lot of money left to spend (25 million by some accounts), and except through trades, have few commodities worth spending it on.

 

Could the Cubs, if losing out to Furcal, sign Burnett to the 5/50 they were offering to Furcal.

 

That would make a rotation of Prior, Wood, Zambrano, Maddux, Burnett, and Rusch with Williams and Hill on the outside looking in.

 

The Cubs could make smaller deals to bring in Bradley or Pierre and maybe Castillo. But to make a big splash, the Cubs could finally offer a frontline starter for Abreu.

 

The Cubs could trade Zambrano to the Phillies for Abreu and Padilla. Padilla would give the Cubs another potential starter and we know what Abreu provides. Zambrano would be the Cubs frontline starter.

 

I love Zambrano as much as the next guy, but this is something that I think should at least be considered.

 

Zambrano is our ace. There's no way I would trade him especially when you consider Wood's situation. As a side note, I'm not in favor of giving Kerry Wood II (A J Burnett) a 5 year deal. He too has questions about his durability.

Edited December 2, 2005 by Blueheart05

[goonys evil twin]

I've been huge on the Abreu acquisition front for a couple years, but I would not have interest in trading Zambrano for him.

 

Burnett isn't close to deserving of a 5/50, and is far less reliable than the combustible Venezualen. I can't justifty such a move.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

I'm going to go with "no" on this one.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

If I'd have to choose between Furcal 5/50 or Burnett 5/50 I'd take Burnett.

 

Glup.

[UK1679666180]

I wouldn't either, they're at opposite ends of their careers for the Cubs to benefit on this one. I'd love for them to pursue Abreu, but I would be opposed to giving up Z in return.

[Blueheart05]

If I'd have to choose between Furcal 5/50 or Burnett 5/50 I'd take Burnett.

 

Glup.

 

Between the two, Furcal has a greater chance of playing out his contract. AJ Burnett can dominate but he hasn't proven to me that he's worth a 5 year commitment.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I would argue that the Cubs see Prior as the ace over Zambrano. That may not be the case in actuality, but I do believe that is how the Cubs see it.

 

While, I'd hate to lose Zambrano, this rotation: Prior, Wood, Burnett, Maddux, Padilla wouldn't be that bad.

 

If it went with this line-up:

 

Pierre

Walker

Lee

Abreu

Ramirez

Murton

Barrett

Cedeno/Perez

 

and there still may be room for improvement in that line-up.

 

On the other hand, we could be looking at this rotation:

 

Prior, Wood, Zambrano, Maddux, Rusch

 

with this line-up:

 

Pierre

Walker

Lee

Ramirez

Encarnacion

Murton

Barrett

Cedeno/Perez

[goonys evil twin]

While, I'd hate to lose Zambrano, this rotation: Prior, Wood, Burnett, Maddux, Padilla wouldn't be that bad.

 

The thing is, nobody else is likely to come close to offering up a pitcher the caliber of Zambrano in Abreu talks. And Philly is likely to have to send money if a team takes on both Abreu's contract and Padilla's arbitration number. I'd much rather see the Cubs pay all of those contracts and pay less in talent.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

While, I'd hate to lose Zambrano, this rotation: Prior, Wood, Burnett, Maddux, Padilla wouldn't be that bad.

 

The thing is, nobody else is likely to come close to offering up a pitcher the caliber of Zambrano in Abreu talks. And Philly is likely to have to send money if a team takes on both Abreu's contract and Padilla's arbitration number. I'd much rather see the Cubs pay all of those contracts and pay less in talent.

 

You make an excellent point. And I'm not saying I'd be completely in favor of the deal, I was just throwing it out there.

 

In reality, if I were sending Zambrano to the Phillies for Abreu and Padilla, I'd also try to get Floyd or Hamels back in the deal.

[Southpaw191679666239]

with this line-up:

 

Pierre

Walker

Lee

Ramirez

Encarnacion

Murton

Barrett

Cedeno/Perez

 

(1) Are going for 20,000 posts today, or are you just making up for lost time? :wink:

 

(2) I don't see Pierre coming here; not for what the Marlins supposedly want.

[wolf stansson]

While, I'd hate to lose Zambrano, this rotation: Prior, Wood, Burnett, Maddux, Padilla wouldn't be that bad.

http://www.anytimecostumes.com/Merchant2/graphics/bodyparts/00173287.jpg

Three of a surgeon's best friends, an old guy, and Vicente Padilla? Yikes. Besides you already have one Wood. Do you really need two?

[CardsFanInChiTown]

If I'd have to choose between Furcal 5/50 or Burnett 5/50 I'd take Burnett.

 

Glup.

 

Between the two, Furcal has a greater chance of playing out his contract. AJ Burnett can dominate but he hasn't proven to me that he's worth a 5 year commitment.

 

I agree about playing out the contract - Burnett is high risk high reward. Still, I'd rather have Burnett.

[Magnetic Curses]

While, I'd hate to lose Zambrano, this rotation: Prior, Wood, Burnett, Maddux, Padilla wouldn't be that bad.

http://www.anytimecostumes.com/Merchant2/graphics/bodyparts/00173287.jpg

Three of a surgeon's best friends, an old guy, and Vicente Padilla? Yikes. Besides you already have one Wood. Do you really need two?

 

when did prior have surgery? and has burnett had more than one injury in his career?

[goonys evil twin]

when did prior have surgery? and has burnett had more than one injury in his career?

 

I don't agree with including Prior in that group, but Burnett is no more reliable, durable or dominant as Wood, and I wouldn't sign Kerry to a 5/50 right now.

[Blueheart05]

If I'd have to choose between Furcal 5/50 or Burnett 5/50 I'd take Burnett.

 

Glup.

 

Between the two, Furcal has a greater chance of playing out his contract. AJ Burnett can dominate but he hasn't proven to me that he's worth a 5 year commitment.

 

I agree about playing out the contract - Burnett is high risk high reward. Still, I'd rather have Burnett.

 

Perhaps... Teams spend based on need and with the current state of the Cubs' rotation I'm not sure they can afford to gamble on Burnett. However, I can certainly understand the Cardinals interest in him. Conversely, aquiring Furcal solves a couple of different problems for the Cubs so I can see why they have offered him 5/50.

 

On another note, while I'm not the least bit confident that Wood will be completely healthy this year I am hoping that the law of averages are on the Cubs side, this season, and that he'll make a substantial number (dare I say all) of his starts.

 

Given Burnett's track record over the last three years don't you have the same concerns about him? Yes, he made 32 starts last year but only 19 in 2004 and 4 in 2003 before having a second TJS.

[Blueheart05]

While, I'd hate to lose Zambrano, this rotation: Prior, Wood, Burnett, Maddux, Padilla wouldn't be that bad.

http://www.anytimecostumes.com/Merchant2/graphics/bodyparts/00173287.jpg

Three of a surgeon's best friends, an old guy, and Vicente Padilla? Yikes. Besides you already have one Wood. Do you really need two?

 

when did prior have surgery? and has burnett had more than one injury in his career?

 

Burnett has had two TJS.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

If I'd have to choose between Furcal 5/50 or Burnett 5/50 I'd take Burnett.

 

Glup.

 

Between the two, Furcal has a greater chance of playing out his contract. AJ Burnett can dominate but he hasn't proven to me that he's worth a 5 year commitment.

 

I agree about playing out the contract - Burnett is high risk high reward. Still, I'd rather have Burnett.

 

Perhaps... Teams spend based on need and with the current state of the Cubs' rotation I'm not sure they can afford to gamble on Burnett. However, I can certainly understand the Cardinals interest in him. Conversely, aquiring Furcal solves a couple of different problems for the Cubs so I can see why they have offered him 5/50.

 

On another note, while I'm not the least bit confident that Wood will be completely healthy this year I am hoping that the law of averages are on the Cubs side, this season, and that he'll make a substantial number (dare I say all) of his starts.

 

Given Burnett's track record over the last three years don't you have the same concerns about him? Yes, he made 32 starts last year but only 19 in 2004 and 4 in 2003 before having a second TJS.

 

The funny thing is I think Furcal makes more sense for the Cards then the Cubs. As it stands STL has no 2nd basemen - Eck could slide over there and we could put Furcal. The Cubs however have RC and Walker - both are solid options.

[Blueheart05]

If I'd have to choose between Furcal 5/50 or Burnett 5/50 I'd take Burnett.

 

Glup.

 

Between the two, Furcal has a greater chance of playing out his contract. AJ Burnett can dominate but he hasn't proven to me that he's worth a 5 year commitment.

 

I agree about playing out the contract - Burnett is high risk high reward. Still, I'd rather have Burnett.

 

Perhaps... Teams spend based on need and with the current state of the Cubs' rotation I'm not sure they can afford to gamble on Burnett. However, I can certainly understand the Cardinals interest in him. Conversely, aquiring Furcal solves a couple of different problems for the Cubs so I can see why they have offered him 5/50.

 

On another note, while I'm not the least bit confident that Wood will be completely healthy this year I am hoping that the law of averages are on the Cubs side, this season, and that he'll make a substantial number (dare I say all) of his starts.

 

Given Burnett's track record over the last three years don't you have the same concerns about him? Yes, he made 32 starts last year but only 19 in 2004 and 4 in 2003 before having a second TJS.

 

The funny thing is I think Furcal makes more sense for the Cards then the Cubs. As it stands STL has no 2nd basemen - Eck could slide over there and we could put Furcal. The Cubs however have RC and Walker - both are solid options.

 

The Cubs don't have a leadoff hitter. Moreover, they seem hell bent on trading Walker and (probably) starting Cedeno at second unless something more proven comes along. That leaves SS open (and NO Neifi is not a viable starting option). I think Furcal is going to stay with the Braves. His agent is using the Cubs and Dodgers to try to squeeze more out of Atlanta. Why wouldn't the guy take a 5/50 contract? As it stands, I think that's the best deal this offseason (this side of BJ Ryan) in terms of money and length of contract.

[gflore34]

If I'd have to choose between Furcal 5/50 or Burnett 5/50 I'd take Burnett.

 

Glup.

 

Between the two, Furcal has a greater chance of playing out his contract. AJ Burnett can dominate but he hasn't proven to me that he's worth a 5 year commitment.

 

I agree about playing out the contract - Burnett is high risk high reward. Still, I'd rather have Burnett.

 

Perhaps... Teams spend based on need and with the current state of the Cubs' rotation I'm not sure they can afford to gamble on Burnett. However, I can certainly understand the Cardinals interest in him. Conversely, aquiring Furcal solves a couple of different problems for the Cubs so I can see why they have offered him 5/50.

 

On another note, while I'm not the least bit confident that Wood will be completely healthy this year I am hoping that the law of averages are on the Cubs side, this season, and that he'll make a substantial number (dare I say all) of his starts.

 

Given Burnett's track record over the last three years don't you have the same concerns about him? Yes, he made 32 starts last year but only 19 in 2004 and 4 in 2003 before having a second TJS.

 

The funny thing is I think Furcal makes more sense for the Cards then the Cubs. As it stands STL has no 2nd basemen - Eck could slide over there and we could put Furcal. The Cubs however have RC and Walker - both are solid options.

 

To Manager with some sense yes, RC and Walker are solid options but, with Baker its more like RC (really Perez) and Walker.

[goonys evil twin]

The funny thing is I think Furcal makes more sense for the Cards then the Cubs. As it stands STL has no 2nd basemen - Eck could slide over there and we could put Furcal. The Cubs however have RC and Walker - both are solid options.

 

The Cubs have spent the entire offseason so far going after marginal improvements at secondary need positions. The OF was, by far, the biggest hole on last year's team, and it's still the biggest hole. It's very possible the OF will once again hold back this team in 2006 if Hendry goes for the type of players I believe he'll be happy going with later this winter.

[ManCrushOnNomar]

The funny thing is I think Furcal makes more sense for the Cards then the Cubs. As it stands STL has no 2nd basemen - Eck could slide over there and we could put Furcal. The Cubs however have RC and Walker - both are solid options.

I read RC and instantly thought of Royce Clayton, then I threw up in my mouth.

[Backtobanks]

No to the trade if you mean Carlos Zambrano. I would do it if it were Victor Zambrano.