Howry signs with Cubs (yes, it's official)

[Tim]

I'm all aquiver with excitement.

 

might be ADD. you should have that checked out.

Is "aquiver" even a word? Or was that the ADD, too?

[sethuel1]

I'm sorry, but Brian Giles alone isn't going to win the Cubs many games...

 

You have to be kidding me. Replace your Burnitz level production (17 win shares) with Giles (35 win shares).

[imb]

I'm sorry, but Brian Giles alone isn't going to win the Cubs many games...

 

You have to be kidding me. Replace your Burnitz level production (17 win shares) with Giles (35 win shares).

 

6 wins, right there. guess where that puts us?

Edited November 22, 2005 by Bunts Lick Butts

[sethuel1]

I'm all aquiver with excitement.

 

might be ADD. you should have that checked out.

Is "aquiver" even a word? Or was that the ADD, too?

I think "aflutter" would have been a better choice there. or "atitter"

[YearofDaCubs]

Our offense was a bigger problem than our bullpen. No question.

[Tim]

Our offense was a bigger problem than our bullpen. No question.

Considering that our offense is half the game, but the bullpen accounts for 1/3 of about 35% of the game?

 

yeah, I'd say that ranking 20th in offense was a much bigger problem than ranking 19th in bullpen ERA.

[Tim]

So, have you all missed me posting on a regular basis? ;)

 

If Hendry doesn't do something to cheer me up soon, I'm going to go nuts here. And for those still curious...signing middle aged, coming off career year middle relievers isn't going to perk me up. :D

[sethuel1]

So, have you all missed me posting on a regular basis? ;)

 

If Hendry doesn't do something to cheer me up soon, I'm going to go nuts here. And for those still curious...signing middle aged, coming off career year middle relievers isn't going to perk me up. :D

 

Yeah, I was wondering when you'd jump into the fray.

[imb]

So, have you all missed me posting on a regular basis? ;)

 

If Hendry doesn't do something to cheer me up soon, I'm going to go nuts here. And for those still curious...signing middle aged, coming off career year middle relievers isn't going to perk me up. :D

 

welcome to the forum!

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm sorry, but Brian Giles alone isn't going to win the Cubs many games...

 

You have to be kidding me. Replace your Burnitz level production (17 win shares) with Giles (35 win shares).

 

6 wins, right there. guess where that puts us?

 

Eyre + Howry(Assuming somehow they repeat their career years): 18 win shares, rounding up.

 

Wuertz + Ohman: 12 win shares

 

So all we need to do is have those two repeat their seasons and we'll be 2 wins better. And we'll have both for 3 years!

[Tim]

So, have you all missed me posting on a regular basis? ;)

 

If Hendry doesn't do something to cheer me up soon, I'm going to go nuts here. And for those still curious...signing middle aged, coming off career year middle relievers isn't going to perk me up. :D

 

Yeah, I was wondering when you'd jump into the fray.

Spending 10-14 hours a day onsite at a customer location where they track internet access tends to reduce one's posting a bit. :(

[nolanwood]

I don't consider the money we spent on Eyre or will spend on Howry as bad news at all. I'm tired of watching our bullpen blow it. I'd say throwing Howry and Eyre in the mix along with a complete season of Dempster closing will pick us up another 12-15 wins. And I'd rather spend that money on two proven veterans than dump it all and more on Wagner or Ryan. Now, if we pick up a legitimate lead off hitter with some speed, a solid bat for the OF, and a stud pitcher we should be looking really good.

Ah, finally. The "proven veteran" phrase has arisen.

 

 

Ahh....since we sucked last year we shouldve just taken our chances on more schlubs that weren't proven and never had dominant seasons like Novoa and almost every other guy in our bullpen.....that would get us really far next season. Once again, I'm tired of watching our bullpen blow game after game, and if it takes 7 mil to help that out (especially in regards to the fact we had 30 to spend), that is definitely money well spent.

The point is that neither vet has "proven" to be reliably exceptional across their careers. Nor have they proven to be consistently better than what we could expect from Wuertz & Ohman in 2006.

 

 

Wuertz and Ohman have only had ONE quality year in the pen apiece. Not much of a sample size to go on - I like the idea of adding two more guys who have had more than ONE quality year, giving us twice as many options for stopping runs after Prior peters out with 110 pitches in the 6th, or Rusch struggles in the 6th after he came in to relieve Wood in the 2nd.

Okay. You go with your proven vets in the pen at $3.5M each. I'll go with the youngsters and have enough money left over to pay for a $6M player. Or most of Brian Giles for RF.

 

 

I'm sorry, but Brian Giles alone isn't going to win the Cubs many games...he can hit 2 home runs in the first 6 innings, but when Novoa comes in and blows the lead, those Brian Giles homers means nothing. We have consisently been in the upper echelon of run scoring the last few years, and it doesn't get us anywhere. On the contrary, our bullpen has sucked big time and look where that got us.....

 

We need to protect that dominant pitching staff in the later innings, which is something we have failed to do the last couple years.

:-k

 

Cubs Rank in MLB:
                2002   2003   2004   2005
Runs Scored       22     20     16     20
Bullpen Runs      25     16     15     19

I'm not sure I can agree with your point...

 

Take a second to examine the overall pitching and offensive stats for the 4 contenders in the AL postseason this year, and you'll obtain a clearer picture of the value of offense/pitching.

 

Blowing over 1/3 of the money we have on one outfielder isn't going to solve the problem.

[sethuel1]

So, have you all missed me posting on a regular basis? ;)

 

If Hendry doesn't do something to cheer me up soon, I'm going to go nuts here. And for those still curious...signing middle aged, coming off career year middle relievers isn't going to perk me up. :D

 

Yeah, I was wondering when you'd jump into the fray.

Spending 10-14 hours a day onsite at a customer location where they track internet access tends to reduce one's posting a bit. :(

Whereas sitting at home reading science textbooks for 10-14 hours a day tends to increase one's posting a bit. In case anyone was wondering.

 

 

back to the topic at hand! Top of the middle-aged reliever heap, here we come!

[Mark_R]

Are either of these relieving clowns Type A FA's?

[imb]

Erye was

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

So, have you all missed me posting on a regular basis? ;)

 

If Hendry doesn't do something to cheer me up soon, I'm going to go nuts here. And for those still curious...signing middle aged, coming off career year middle relievers isn't going to perk me up. :D

 

Yeah, I was wondering when you'd jump into the fray.

Spending 10-14 hours a day onsite at a customer location where they track internet access tends to reduce one's posting a bit. :(

 

no more porn for you. :lol:

 

anyway, this offseason has been flat out ridiculous so far. we haven't made one solid move. either we've overpaid (Dempster, Eyre) or just flat out signed the wrong guys (Rusch, Neifi). Hey, at least Howry is a good arm.

[CUBZ99]

I don't consider the money we spent on Eyre or will spend on Howry as bad news at all. I'm tired of watching our bullpen blow it. I'd say throwing Howry and Eyre in the mix along with a complete season of Dempster closing will pick us up another 12-15 wins. And I'd rather spend that money on two proven veterans than dump it all and more on Wagner or Ryan. Now, if we pick up a legitimate lead off hitter with some speed, a solid bat for the OF, and a stud pitcher we should be looking really good.

Ah, finally. The "proven veteran" phrase has arisen.

 

 

Ahh....since we sucked last year we shouldve just taken our chances on more schlubs that weren't proven and never had dominant seasons like Novoa and almost every other guy in our bullpen.....that would get us really far next season. Once again, I'm tired of watching our bullpen blow game after game, and if it takes 7 mil to help that out (especially in regards to the fact we had 30 to spend), that is definitely money well spent.

 

Last 3 years

 

Eyre: 1.25 WHIP, 1.88 K/BB

Howry(4 years since he missed '03): 1.13 WHIP, 2.61 K/BB

 

2005

 

Ohman: 1.29 WHIP, 1.88 K/BB

Wuertz: 1.32 WHIP, 2.23 K/BB

 

Howry is a pretty good reliever, but giving him 3 years when you aren't THAT bad off with Wuertz, Williamson, and I guess Eyre isn't smart. ESPECIALLY when you could get someone like Ryan for not much more than you're paying Eyre and Howry.

 

 

We've already seen how a bullpen with Ohman and Wuertz works. I'm glad that Hendry isn't just sitting on his rump and making up excuses for not improving the bullpen. It didn't work last year and this year the pen looks to be much improved.

[sethuel1]

 

Take a second to examine the overall pitching and offensive stats for the 4 contenders in the AL postseason this year, and you'll obtain a clearer picture of the value of offense/pitching.

 

Blowing over 1/3 of the money we have on one outfielder isn't going to solve the problem.

 

Take a second to examine the overall pitching and offensive stats for the 4 AL contenders the 3 years before that and I bet it doesn't paint the same picture

 

Following the big one-year stories (i.e. chemistry, bullpen, "I like guys who catch the ball", whatever) is not going to make this team good long term

Edited November 22, 2005 by sethuel1

[fearthecubs]

Just a question, but when is it okay to overspend. The Red Sox needed a closer for the 2004 season and they overspent for Keith Foulke, even providing him an extra year. People saw that as a good move. He had a great season, followed up by a disaster. Boston also needed a short stop, so they paid Renteria 40 mil. Again, not a great signing, but they were paying for the best.

 

In short, I think sometimes teams need to pay more to get more, and not rely on cheaper, more unpredictable alternatives.

Looking at the year by year stats for Eyre and Howry, what is it that is there that inspires confidence in you that they're especially predictable?

 

Since you choose to belabor your point...it was reported extensively that Eyre suffers from acute ADD, and has been on treatment for it the last few years. His numbers have been outstanding in that time. Yes, I would consider a three-year run after a life-changing event a run of sustained performance that leads to some confidence that the trend will continue.

 

Bob Howry had three solid years for the White Sox--two of which were terrific--then started having arm trouble, culminating in surgery in 2003. Since coming back from surgery, his numbers are excellent to near-ridiculous. Yes, I think that constitutes a trend of good pitching that the odds say can reasonably be expected to continue.

So you're a big fan of Eyre's 4.10 ERA in 2004? I'm glad you're happy spending that kind of money on peformance you can get at league minimum.

 

I'm not.

 

Tim, why do you CARE. I put this in another thread as well, I don't understand as a Cubs fan, it affects you if they give Eyre 1 or 10M a year. If it doesn't affect the signing of another player (and it won't), why do you care? Just so everyone can badmouth the Cubs front office for actually fielding a decent team? Maybe they had to pay that much in this market? I just don't understand how you can complain about getting two quality relievers after last years debacle.

 

And whoever said we should sign our bigger holes before relief pitchers, dude, you don't even understand how the offseason works. Why would those players sign early, of course they're going to wait until teams fall into the "I NEED this player mode". The lesser players and players who are deserved of draft comp picks go first, THEN the A and B players. Give me a break.

[Tim]

I don't consider the money we spent on Eyre or will spend on Howry as bad news at all. I'm tired of watching our bullpen blow it. I'd say throwing Howry and Eyre in the mix along with a complete season of Dempster closing will pick us up another 12-15 wins. And I'd rather spend that money on two proven veterans than dump it all and more on Wagner or Ryan. Now, if we pick up a legitimate lead off hitter with some speed, a solid bat for the OF, and a stud pitcher we should be looking really good.

Ah, finally. The "proven veteran" phrase has arisen.

 

 

Ahh....since we sucked last year we shouldve just taken our chances on more schlubs that weren't proven and never had dominant seasons like Novoa and almost every other guy in our bullpen.....that would get us really far next season. Once again, I'm tired of watching our bullpen blow game after game, and if it takes 7 mil to help that out (especially in regards to the fact we had 30 to spend), that is definitely money well spent.

The point is that neither vet has "proven" to be reliably exceptional across their careers. Nor have they proven to be consistently better than what we could expect from Wuertz & Ohman in 2006.

 

 

Wuertz and Ohman have only had ONE quality year in the pen apiece. Not much of a sample size to go on - I like the idea of adding two more guys who have had more than ONE quality year, giving us twice as many options for stopping runs after Prior peters out with 110 pitches in the 6th, or Rusch struggles in the 6th after he came in to relieve Wood in the 2nd.

Okay. You go with your proven vets in the pen at $3.5M each. I'll go with the youngsters and have enough money left over to pay for a $6M player. Or most of Brian Giles for RF.

 

 

I'm sorry, but Brian Giles alone isn't going to win the Cubs many games...he can hit 2 home runs in the first 6 innings, but when Novoa comes in and blows the lead, those Brian Giles homers means nothing. We have consisently been in the upper echelon of run scoring the last few years, and it doesn't get us anywhere. On the contrary, our bullpen has sucked big time and look where that got us.....

 

We need to protect that dominant pitching staff in the later innings, which is something we have failed to do the last couple years.

:-k

 

Cubs Rank in MLB:
                2002   2003   2004   2005
Runs Scored       22     20     16     20
Bullpen Runs      25     16     15     19

I'm not sure I can agree with your point...

 

Take a second to examine the overall pitching and offensive stats for the 4 contenders in the AL postseason this year, and you'll obtain a clearer picture of the value of offense/pitching.

 

Blowing over 1/3 of the money we have on one outfielder isn't going to solve the problem.

lol - If you look at the stats of the AL playoff teams in other years it tells a different story. So what?

 

Baseball is a simple game. You have to score more than the other team. Scoring runs = 50%, preventing runs = 50%. Preventing runs is split between pitching and defense. Pitching is split between starting (majority) and bullpen (minority). The bullpen is split between 6-7 guys (under Dusty).

 

Spending $3M on a single reliever isn't the answer, either.

 

The $10M on the OF will help a heck of a lot more.

[sethuel1]

If it doesn't affect the signing of another player (and it won't), why do you care?

How, if you have a team that has an operating budget, can you have the cost of one signing not affect who else you can sign?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If it doesn't affect the signing of another player (and it won't), why do you care?

How, if you have a team that has an operating budget, can you have the cost of one signing not affect who else you can sign?

 

Especially when you sign them to 3 year contracts, which most certainly will impact future decisions.

[CUBZ99]

I don't consider the money we spent on Eyre or will spend on Howry as bad news at all. I'm tired of watching our bullpen blow it. I'd say throwing Howry and Eyre in the mix along with a complete season of Dempster closing will pick us up another 12-15 wins. And I'd rather spend that money on two proven veterans than dump it all and more on Wagner or Ryan. Now, if we pick up a legitimate lead off hitter with some speed, a solid bat for the OF, and a stud pitcher we should be looking really good.

Ah, finally. The "proven veteran" phrase has arisen.

 

 

Ahh....since we sucked last year we shouldve just taken our chances on more schlubs that weren't proven and never had dominant seasons like Novoa and almost every other guy in our bullpen.....that would get us really far next season. Once again, I'm tired of watching our bullpen blow game after game, and if it takes 7 mil to help that out (especially in regards to the fact we had 30 to spend), that is definitely money well spent.

The point is that neither vet has "proven" to be reliably exceptional across their careers. Nor have they proven to be consistently better than what we could expect from Wuertz & Ohman in 2006.

 

 

Wuertz and Ohman have only had ONE quality year in the pen apiece. Not much of a sample size to go on - I like the idea of adding two more guys who have had more than ONE quality year, giving us twice as many options for stopping runs after Prior peters out with 110 pitches in the 6th, or Rusch struggles in the 6th after he came in to relieve Wood in the 2nd.

Okay. You go with your proven vets in the pen at $3.5M each. I'll go with the youngsters and have enough money left over to pay for a $6M player. Or most of Brian Giles for RF.

 

 

I'm sorry, but Brian Giles alone isn't going to win the Cubs many games...he can hit 2 home runs in the first 6 innings, but when Novoa comes in and blows the lead, those Brian Giles homers means nothing. We have consisently been in the upper echelon of run scoring the last few years, and it doesn't get us anywhere. On the contrary, our bullpen has sucked big time and look where that got us.....

 

We need to protect that dominant pitching staff in the later innings, which is something we have failed to do the last couple years.

:-k

 

Cubs Rank in MLB:
                2002   2003   2004   2005
Runs Scored       22     20     16     20
Bullpen Runs      25     16     15     19

I'm not sure I can agree with your point...

 

Take a second to examine the overall pitching and offensive stats for the 4 contenders in the AL postseason this year, and you'll obtain a clearer picture of the value of offense/pitching.

 

Blowing over 1/3 of the money we have on one outfielder isn't going to solve the problem.

lol - If you look at the stats of the AL playoff teams in other years it tells a different story. So what?

 

Baseball is a simple game. You have to score more than the other team. Scoring runs = 50%, preventing runs = 50%. Preventing runs is split between pitching and defense. Pitching is split between starting (majority) and bullpen (minority). The bullpen is split between 6-7 guys (under Dusty).

 

Spending $3M on a single reliever isn't the answer, either.

 

The $10M on the OF will help a heck of a lot more.

 

Its not like the Cubs are lacking money to spend on offense now that they "supposedly" signed Howry. The bullpen is shaping up quite nicely and Hendry still has roughly $20M and some nice trading chips to get some offense.

[Tim]

Just a question, but when is it okay to overspend. The Red Sox needed a closer for the 2004 season and they overspent for Keith Foulke, even providing him an extra year. People saw that as a good move. He had a great season, followed up by a disaster. Boston also needed a short stop, so they paid Renteria 40 mil. Again, not a great signing, but they were paying for the best.

 

In short, I think sometimes teams need to pay more to get more, and not rely on cheaper, more unpredictable alternatives.

Looking at the year by year stats for Eyre and Howry, what is it that is there that inspires confidence in you that they're especially predictable?

 

Since you choose to belabor your point...it was reported extensively that Eyre suffers from acute ADD, and has been on treatment for it the last few years. His numbers have been outstanding in that time. Yes, I would consider a three-year run after a life-changing event a run of sustained performance that leads to some confidence that the trend will continue.

 

Bob Howry had three solid years for the White Sox--two of which were terrific--then started having arm trouble, culminating in surgery in 2003. Since coming back from surgery, his numbers are excellent to near-ridiculous. Yes, I think that constitutes a trend of good pitching that the odds say can reasonably be expected to continue.

So you're a big fan of Eyre's 4.10 ERA in 2004? I'm glad you're happy spending that kind of money on peformance you can get at league minimum.

 

I'm not.

 

Tim, why do you CARE. I put this in another thread as well, I don't understand as a Cubs fan, it affects you if they give Eyre 1 or 10M a year. If it doesn't affect the signing of another player (and it won't), why do you care? Just so everyone can badmouth the Cubs front office for actually fielding a decent team? Maybe they had to pay that much in this market? I just don't understand how you can complain about getting two quality relievers after last years debacle.

 

And whoever said we should sign our bigger holes before relief pitchers, dude, you don't even understand how the offseason works. Why would those players sign early, of course they're going to wait until teams fall into the "I NEED this player mode". The lesser players and players who are deserved of draft comp picks go first, THEN the A and B players. Give me a break.

 

1 - I care because the budget is NOT unlimited and the money we've spent on average performance so far could have been put to better use.

 

2 - yet we've already blown our second and third round picks for these guys (assuming Howry is signed). Thank goodness we lost enough to end up in the top 15 picks or we would have traded our first and second round picks in return for the potential, ever so slight upgrade in predictability (if not actual talent).

[E.J.]

Good lord. 7 premium pages already without Howry even being signed. Must be some good arguing going on. :D Edited November 22, 2005 by E.J.