To Pie Or Not To Pie...

[Fanzones trumpet]

I don't understand your steroids observation; are you saying steroids didn't have a significant impact on the offensive explosion that was reversed last year?

 

The Cubs scored 789 runs in 2004-7th in the NL, which isn't below average. The major reason it was a problem last year was because of injuries to Garciaparra, Walker and Ramirez, and Patterson's complete (and totally unexpected) implosion, not because Hendry "completely ignored" it. I named you five guys Hendry brought in in the last two years who are excellent offensive players, and you ignored the point.

 

I'm saying that it's quite clear that many factors played into the increased offense, and steroids being used as a catch-all is a big mistake.

 

They were 7th in 2004, but 9th in 2003 and 2005. That's consistently mediocre. I didn't ignore your point. The fact is scoring runs has been a problem for years. It has been a problem because of a lack of walks taken by the team, which led to a lack of OBP. It has been the same problem year after year. But because this team doesn't value walks taken, it's never been fixed.

 

I don't buy the injury excuse. Injuries can be used to explain the one year downturn in pitching a lot easier than they can the consistently mediocre offense.

 

Many factors may have played into it, but I think it's pretty telling that offense dropped dramatically in the year that steroids were scrutinized for the first time.

 

2003--Hendry inherited a 67 win team with lots of holes and improved it 21 games, including acquiring Grudz and Ramirez.

 

2004--Hendry improved the team offensively during the offseason by acquiring Lee, Barrett and Walker. He attempted to fix the one offensive black hole mid-season with Garciaparra. The team he built should have won 100 games with good health; they should have won 94 games according to Pyth. even with all the injuries. The offense was plenty good enough to win in 2004.

 

2005--Injuries are a legitimate excuse; they can destroy a team. Hendry built the team with the idea that he'd have the best offensive infield in the league and above average offense from CF. Three fifths of his infield went down for significant periods, and the CF imploded. Some things can't be blamed on a GM.

[mg420]

i know how good boston's offense was but what about the 02 angels, the 03 marlins & the 05 sox? how did their offense compare to their pitching? i dont have the #'s but i would guess that 3 out of the 4 teams that have won the series most recently had great pitching and an average offense.

[craig]

The Cubs didn't hit very well last year, or pitch very well last year. I agree with goony that offense has been a more persistent problem than overall pitching. But I think that relief *has* been a persistent problem.

 

I don't know how much cash Hendry has to work with, $30 or $35 or whatever. I don't have a problem that Hendry isn't going to spend it all on players. I would have a problem if he spent it all on pitchers, but that's far from the case.

 

It may well be that the $10.5 toward Howry/Eyre/Rusch (if Howry proves more than rumor) may perhaps be all the cash expended on pitching. If the $7.5-8 spent on Eyre/Howry does largely solve the persistent bullpen problem, I think it's money well spent. (Obviously the bigger question is whether they'll actually be good or not. But if you believe that they will be, it's not faulty strategy to spend for that area.)

 

If $21+ now gets spend on Furcal, Pierre, whoever gets acquired for RF, and for some other outfield depth, I don't see why it should be said that offense is being ignored!

 

Seems like spending $2 on players for $1 spent on pitching this winter is a reasonable distribution. Whether the guys acquired for the dollars spent will be the right ones, that's a scouting opinion and time will tell.

[goonys evil twin]

The Cubs didn't hit very well last year, or pitch very well last year. I agree with goony that offense has been a more persistent problem than overall pitching. But I think that relief *has* been a persistent problem.

 

If $21+ now gets spend on Furcal, Pierre, whoever gets acquired for RF, and for some other outfield depth, I don't see why it should be said that offense is being ignored!

 

Seems like spending $2 on players for $1 spent on pitching this winter is a reasonable distribution.

 

I'm not saying the Cubs are going to ignore hitting this offseason. I am saying they've ignored the problem that caused the lack of offense the past few years. I was just responding to the many statements I've read where people seem to be advocating purposefully ignoring the offense and focusing exclusively on pitching. I want a top 5 run scoring team and top 5 run preventing team. Some people don't seem to care if the offense is 9th in the league, and I just don't get it. If Hendry does indeed go out and spend $20 on actual offensive improvements, I'll be ecstatic.

[noisesquared]

 

2003--Hendry inherited a 67 win team with lots of holes and improved it 21 games, including acquiring Grudz and Ramirez.

 

2004--Hendry improved the team offensively during the offseason by acquiring Lee, Barrett and Walker. He attempted to fix the one offensive black hole mid-season with Garciaparra. The team he built should have won 100 games with good health; they should have won 94 games according to Pyth. even with all the injuries. The offense was plenty good enough to win in 2004.

 

2005--Injuries are a legitimate excuse; they can destroy a team. Hendry built the team with the idea that he'd have the best offensive infield in the league and above average offense from CF. Three fifths of his infield went down for significant periods, and the CF imploded. Some things can't be blamed on a GM.

 

This is what concerns me - the decline in quality of SP over the last 3 years:

 

2003 - Wood, Prior, Clement, Z, Estes

2004 - Wood, Prior, Z, Clement, Maddux

2005 - Z, Prior, Maddux, Rusch, Williams

 

These are the 5 starting pitchers with the most GS in each of the last 3 years. Wood has made a combined 32 starts and 200 IP over the last 2 years combined, and is coming off of major shoulder surgery. Maddux has become nothing more than a 5th starter. Matt Clement has never been replaced. The starting pitching which was a strength as recently as 2004, has gaping holes as significant as the offense. If no starting pitching is added, Wood does not rebound, and either Z or Prior goes down, the Cubs could have the '27 Yankees offense and it won't matter. How good does a rotation of Z, Maddux, Rusch, Williams, and Hill sound? Yikes! Even if Wood is healthy Maddux is still the #4, which is a problem IMO. I'm all for adding to the offense, but I don't for a second believe the pitching is a strength on this Cubs team.

[craig]

If Hendry does indeed go out and spend $20 on actual offensive improvements, I'll be ecstatic.

 

I'm pretty confident that Hendry will spend $20+ on position players. I don't expect him to sign Giles, and I expect that he will prioritize speed/defense more than some posters would like.

 

So there may well be fault-finding with the scouting valuations of different players.

 

But I don't think you'll end up being disgusted that he didn't spend even $20 of his $30+ millions on position players.

[CubsWin]

In his rookie year do you expect Pie to post numbers similar to Albert in his rookie year? Do you expect him to post simialr numubers to what Abreu posted for the last three years? If so when do you expect Pie will be playing for the Cubs and producing those numbers?

Do you think the Cubs are an Abreu away from winning the World Series in the next couple years?

 

Yes.

 

It wouldn't guarantee, but it's the closest thing to it. The Cubs have been a top pitching team in 2 of the past 3 years. They've been a mediocre or worse hitting team every year. An impact RF to go along with Aramis, Lee, Barrett and whatever top of the order player Hendry gets (assuming that player is competent) would put them as close to the WS as any team in the NL.

Is the difference between Giles and Abreu over the next couple seasons worth giving up Pie?

That is a great question.

 

If Giles is willing to come to the midwest, which is a big if, and if he is willing to sign for only 3 years and for around 10 million, as has been rumored/reported, then no, I don't think that difference between Giles and Abreu is worth giving up Pie.

 

Of course, I'm still not sure whether giving up Pie for two guaranteed years of Abreu, who will be 32 next March, is a good idea.

 

But, clearly Abreu is better than Giles. He is younger, faster, has better defensive range and a much better arm. Their bats are quite similar, but there is certainly more confidence in Abreu's ability to maintain his offensive production over the next couple of seasons. If the Cubs can obtain Abreu without touching their core of Prior, Zambrano, Lee, Ramirez, Murton, Cedeno, Pie or Pawelek, I would do that over signing Giles.

[RynoRules]

In his rookie year do you expect Pie to post numbers similar to Albert in his rookie year? Do you expect him to post simialr numubers to what Abreu posted for the last three years? If so when do you expect Pie will be playing for the Cubs and producing those numbers?

Do you think the Cubs are an Abreu away from winning the World Series in the next couple years?

 

Yes.

 

It wouldn't guarantee, but it's the closest thing to it. The Cubs have been a top pitching team in 2 of the past 3 years. They've been a mediocre or worse hitting team every year. An impact RF to go along with Aramis, Lee, Barrett and whatever top of the order player Hendry gets (assuming that player is competent) would put them as close to the WS as any team in the NL.

Is the difference between Giles and Abreu over the next couple seasons worth giving up Pie?

That is a great question.

 

If Giles is willing to come to the midwest, which is a big if, and if he is willing to sign for only 3 years and for around 10 million, as has been rumored/reported, then no, I don't think that difference between Giles and Abreu is worth giving up Pie.

 

Of course, I'm still not sure whether giving up Pie for two guaranteed years of Abreu, who will be 32 next March, is a good idea.

 

But, clearly Abreu is better than Giles. He is younger, faster, has better defensive range and a much better arm. Their bats are quite similar, but there is certainly more confidence in Abreu's ability to maintain his offensive production over the next couple of seasons. If the Cubs can obtain Abreu without touching their core of Prior, Zambrano, Lee, Ramirez, Murton, Cedeno, Pie or Pawelek, I would do that over signing Giles.

 

Here here.

[Tim]

I'd rather just sign Giles and get that out of the way, then try and trade for Abreu. Include Murton as part of the package and put Giles in LF. If we had a core of the lineup with Giles, Lee, Abreu & Ramirez we could afford to put Corey in CF and Cedeno at 2B.

 

That's the type of overspending I'm happy to live with.

[CubsWin]

Here is my deal:

 

Pie may turn out to be great. But he most likely won't be great for at least 3 years. In addition, he is ranked at the top of the Cubs system but not near the top of all prospects in baseball. In other words, he is the best the Cubs have but not nearly the best.

 

Now let's look at Abreu. He is a top five player at his position. He will likely be near the top for at least the length of his current contract.

 

The Cubs have a brief window with this group of pitchers and they need a productive RFer. With Lee, Rameriz, and Abreu the Cubs have a top 5 middle of the order. Put a couple of guys who can get on base in front of them and you have the makings of a championship offense.

 

With Z and Prior you have the one-two punch needed to succeed in the playoffs. If the Cubs get anything from Wood and Dempster continues to do well at the end you have the makings of division winning pitching.

 

If I'm Hendry and Philadelphia is interested in Pie I try to make the deal work.

Given your assumptions, I would do the same thing. Your logic is very sound, as I see it.

 

One of your assumptions, that Pie won't likely be very good for 3 years has already been challenged. I would like to question another of your assumptions, namely the the Cubs have a brief window of opportunity to make a run at a World Series with this group of pitchers. Besides the fact that no Cub currently has a contract beyond the 2008 season, so there really is no way to tell who will be around 3 years from now, there is nothing about this group of pitchers that I can see that makes the Cubs window of opportunity a brief one.

 

Prior is 25. Zambrano is 24. Dempster is 28. If you think Wood will rebound and be here he is only 28. Williams, if kept, is only 23. So what about their pitchers makes this window so brief?

[CubsWin]

I'd rather just sign Giles and get that out of the way, then try and trade for Abreu. Include Murton as part of the package and put Giles in LF. If we had a core of the lineup with Giles, Lee, Abreu & Ramirez we could afford to put Corey in CF and Cedeno at 2B.

 

That's the type of overspending I'm happy to live with.

Well that is certainly thinking outside the box! I would be thrilled with that type of overspending as well. :D

 

Put Cedeno at SS, keep Walker at 2B and have an outfield of Giles, Patterson and Abreu. That would score some runs. 8)

[goonys evil twin]

Here is my deal:

 

Pie may turn out to be great. But he most likely won't be great for at least 3 years. In addition, he is ranked at the top of the Cubs system but not near the top of all prospects in baseball. In other words, he is the best the Cubs have but not nearly the best.

 

Now let's look at Abreu. He is a top five player at his position. He will likely be near the top for at least the length of his current contract.

 

The Cubs have a brief window with this group of pitchers and they need a productive RFer. With Lee, Rameriz, and Abreu the Cubs have a top 5 middle of the order. Put a couple of guys who can get on base in front of them and you have the makings of a championship offense.

 

With Z and Prior you have the one-two punch needed to succeed in the playoffs. If the Cubs get anything from Wood and Dempster continues to do well at the end you have the makings of division winning pitching.

 

If I'm Hendry and Philadelphia is interested in Pie I try to make the deal work.

Given your assumptions, I would do the same thing. Your logic is very sound, as I see it.

 

One of your assumptions, that Pie won't likely be very good for 3 years has already been challenged. I would like to question another of your assumptions, namely the the Cubs have a brief window of opportunity to make a run at a World Series with this group of pitchers. Besides the fact that no Cub currently has a contract beyond the 2008 season, so there really is no way to tell who will be around 3 years from now, there is nothing about this group of pitchers that I can see that makes the Cubs window of opportunity a brief one.

 

Prior is 25. Zambrano is 24. Dempster is 28. If you think Wood will rebound and be here he is only 28. Williams, if kept, is only 23. So what about their pitchers makes this window so brief?

 

The window that matters is the window when these guys outperform their contracts. No matter how you go about building a team, unless you are at the absolute top of the payroll food chain, it's necessary to get overperformance. Great players generally outperform their salary for at least their first 4-5 years, and sometimes their 6th. Zambrano and Prior are there right now, but won't be for long. So, it's possible to spend in other areas, and occasionally withstand some underperformance.

 

In a couple years these guys will be maxed out, or near maxed out in pay. They will be great pitchers still, but no longer providing great value for the dollar spent. So you won't have as much money to fill in the other holes, and you'll need a whole new set of outperformers. Zambrano and Prior have been the two best Cubs prospects-turned-big leaguers in the MacPhail era. The quality of prospects has gone down, however, in recent years. So the odds of the Cubs getting similar outperformance elsewhere in the near future are lower. And since the Cubs tend to spend a player's first couple years of cheapness in small roles, they don't maximize that value.

 

Starting in 2007 and then more so in the future, the Cubs will need a whole new batch of cheap internal pitching options, and assuming Lee's salary nearly doubles in his next contract, another couple young position players (in addition to Murton and Cedeno). They have to introduce roughly one arm and one bat/glove every year to help deal with the higher costs of what is now their best players.

 

All the windows in the house won't be shut in just a couple years, but the giant sliding glass door will be.

[CubinNY]

goony beat me to it.

 

I'd like to add that I also think that if the Cubs don't win soon there will be some changes made for change sake. If Hendry and Dusty go I wouldn't be surprized if one of Z or Prior would be traded simply b/c the new GM needs to make "his bones".

[goonys evil twin]

goony beat me to it.

 

I'd like to add that I also think that if the Cubs don't win soon there will be some changes made for change sake. If Hendry and Dusty go I wouldn't be surprized if one of Z or Prior would be traded simply b/c the new GM needs to make "his bones".

 

And if ownership sees that a decades worth of heavy investment in the farm system basically produces no results, I could see them shy away from such longterm concepts, and starting to revert to the old ways of just filling out the roster with whatever free agent they can find each year.

[Backtobanks]

You're talking to the wrong person if you're advocating signing Giles. Giles is atop the list. But Hendry doesn't seem to have any interest in the most obvious solution, therefore it's time to look into the next best options, and trading for Abreu is clearly in that group.

I think signing Giles makes a heck of a lot more sense than trading away your best prospect, and I have a feeling that Hendry has as much interest in trading Pie for Abreu as he does for signing Giles.

 

That's true. But then again, Pie is only the Cubs best prospect because they are so bereft of top flight prospects after slowly falling down the list of top farm systems. He's got some pretty large flaws for all the we can't trade him for a current start talk.

I'm not advocating trading Pie instead of signing Giles. I'm all about Giles. But if the GM won't open his eyes to the obviousness of signing Giles, he has to trade for an impact corner OF someway and somehow. And I'd like to see them trade prospects other than Pie to get that corner OF. But I would not let Pie and his slim chance for greatness stand in the way of making a trade, if he was a dealbreaker. He's not worth it.

 

He's got more potential and less flaws than a guy named Lou Brock had when the Cubs dealt him to the Cards. I think he went on to have a decent career. Obviously, with a 20-year old in the minor leagues, you can only speculate as to whether he will reach his potential, but there aren't many guys his age with his tools who strives to improve like he does.

[CubsWin]

Starting in 2007 and then more so in the future, the Cubs will need a whole new batch of cheap internal pitching options, and assuming Lee's salary nearly doubles in his next contract, another couple young position players (in addition to Murton and Cedeno). They have to introduce roughly one arm and one bat/glove every year to help deal with the higher costs of what is now their best players.

 

All the windows in the house won't be shut in just a couple years, but the giant sliding glass door will be.

Excellent response. Thank you for the clear and thorough explanation. And I agree.

 

However, as you said, it doesn't matter whether the great players like Z and Prior are being paid full price so long as younger players come along. I don't know if it needs to be one new pitcher and one position player a year in order for the Cubs to continue to afford their current core of players, though. With the new bleacher expansion and the parking garage, museum, restaurant complex to follow next off season, the Cubs payroll could easily continue its upward climb.

 

If Cedeno is playing SS for the Cubs, that saves them a lot of money because of that positions expense of late. With Murton seemingly ready to man LF and do a very good job doing it and Pie probably ready to take over in CF in '07, that would make 3 of the 8 position players making the league minimum or close to it. 2B hasn't proved to be an expensive position, so it should be filled rather cheaply whether by a rookie or not.

 

I'm not counting on them, but one pitcher from the group of Guzman, Marshall, Nolasco, Pinto, Marmol and Hill could certainly emerge for the '07 season to replace Maddux. If Williams isn't dealt, he will be at league minimum for that season as well, IIRC. Since planning beyond the '07 season gets pretty unwieldy at this point, we can't go much further. But with players like Harvey, EPatt and Pawelek in the system, it isn't inconceivable that they could be close to ready by '08 or '09.

 

So maybe the Cubs are already on the path that you described. And thus, their window of opportunity isn't as small as was previously described.

[goonys evil twin]

So maybe the Cubs are already on the path that you described. And thus, their window of opportunity isn't as small as was previously described.

 

I have some faith that they are on that path. And in my occasional spreadsheet dream rosters I've included lots of these guys going through the end of the decade and slowly increasing payroll each year.

 

The problem is that at their best, Zambrano and Prior were both putting up Cy Young caliber performances for minimal cost. I doubt the Cubs will produce anything similar soon, either MVP hitters or CY pitchers. Any GM with a top 5 budget and 2 Cy caliber pitchers taking up a very small portion of that would do anything they could to take advantage.

 

And there's nothing to say another window won't open. We just know there is one open now, and it will close. You aren't guaranteed anything more than that.

[CubsWin]

So maybe the Cubs are already on the path that you described. And thus, their window of opportunity isn't as small as was previously described.

 

I have some faith that they are on that path. And in my occasional spreadsheet dream rosters I've included lots of these guys going through the end of the decade and slowly increasing payroll each year.

 

The problem is that at their best, Zambrano and Prior were both putting up Cy Young caliber performances for minimal cost. I doubt the Cubs will produce anything similar soon, either MVP hitters or CY pitchers. Any GM with a top 5 budget and 2 Cy caliber pitchers taking up a very small portion of that would do anything they could to take advantage.

 

And there's nothing to say another window won't open. We just know there is one open now, and it will close. You aren't guaranteed anything more than that.

You can't argue with that statement. :wink:

 

And that is why trading for Abreu is so enticing.

 

You said you doubt the Cubs will produce anything similar to an MVP hitter any time soon. You have good reason to doubt it. Most teams don't produce MVP type bats very often. But does that means you don't think that Pie can be an impact player? He might not have an "MVP bat" like Lee or Pujols, but he should be able to complement his bat, which should be pretty darn good, with blazing speed, great defense, the drive to continually improve and the natural charisma and love of the game and winning to be a natural leader.

 

Those characteristics don't show up in a player's OPS, but they still add to a player's ability to help a team win games, don't they? I believe Pie has a good chance of being a real impact player and close to the MVP bat that you described. Maybe just a different kind of MVP than say Manny or Albert. And therein lies my dilemma. To trade Pie or not to trade Pie.

 

One thing I don't have a dilemma about is the best way to improve the Cubs chances of winning baseball games is by acquiring one of Bobby Abreu or Brian Giles.

[Guest]

I'd rather just sign Giles and get that out of the way, then try and trade for Abreu. Include Murton as part of the package and put Giles in LF. If we had a core of the lineup with Giles, Lee, Abreu & Ramirez we could afford to put Corey in CF and Cedeno at 2B.

 

That's the type of overspending I'm happy to live with.

Well that is certainly thinking outside the box! I would be thrilled with that type of overspending as well. :D

 

Put Cedeno at SS, keep Walker at 2B and have an outfield of Giles, Patterson and Abreu. That would score some runs. 8)

Hmmm... I wonder what that lineup would look like:

 

Walker

Abreu

Lee

Giles

Ramirez

Barrett

Patterson

Cedeno

[Geech]

Abreu

Lee

Giles

Ramirez

 

Yowza.

[RynoRules]

Abreu

Lee

Giles

Ramirez

 

Yowza.

 

Yeah. My son has a book called "Little Pea". When the main character finally gets to eat his dessert, he reacts with:

 

"Yum!...Yum!...Extra Yum!"

 

That lineup is like a good piece of your favorite dessert after a steak dinner...

 

...or something....[/i]

[NorthsideAvenger]

Put Cedeno at SS, keep Walker at 2B and have an outfield of Giles, Patterson and Abreu. That would score some runs.

Hmmm... I wonder what that lineup would look like:

 

Walker

Abreu

Lee

Giles

Ramirez

Barrett

Patterson

Cedeno

 

Well, keep wondering. Considering Giles is playing phone tag with the Yankees of ALL teams, and the Cards seemingly pull out of negotiations mybest guess is Giles stays in S.D., at worst he stays in Cali and plays for one of the tw LA teams.

 

Now Abreu 8) and down with that idea. Make it so, Ensign Hendry.

[Careless]

i know how good boston's offense was but what about the 02 angels, the 03 marlins & the 05 sox? how did their offense compare to their pitching? i dont have the #'s but i would guess that 3 out of the 4 teams that have won the series most recently had great pitching and an average offense.

The angels were 4th in the majors in runs. Marlins were 17th (not sure how much their home park affects that, but they'd still be someplace in the middle) and the white sox were 13th. So 2 top 4 teams and 2 in the middle.

For pitching, sox tied with cleveland for 1st in AL, boston was 11th in majors, florida was 7th in the NL (wow, how did they win so many?) and the angels were 4th in the majors in pitching.