What about Millwood?

[nolanwood]

Where's goony to tell everyone how dumb it would be to spend $7-$8 million a year over three years for Matt Morris when Jerome Williams is already on the team and we have no outfield?

 

I was satisfied with Williams production last year as a 5th man, don't get me wrong. But Williams is a far cry from the production of Lowe or Morris at this point in the game. And it's a fact that quality pitching will when you more games than offense. Yes, I think our offense/outfield needs to be addressed first. But, I think both issues could be solved within our budget. And a rotation of:

 

Prior

Z

Wood (barring a healthy season)

Maddux

Morris / Lowe

 

.....would be absolutely devastating!

 

Williams as a Cub: 3.91 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 109 ERA+

 

Lowe: 3.61 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 113 ERA+

Morris: 4.11 ERA, 1.27, 104 ERA+

 

That doesn't look like a far cry at all. In fact, he was better than Morris.

 

 

This is what scares me about Williams....

 

As a Cub: 59k / 44bb

 

You'r also completely disregarding his numbers last year with the Giants, and also disregarding the fact that those Cubs #'s are based on 100 ip's - half of the ip's of Lowe / Morris.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Morris and Lowe aren't too likely to improve much at this point in their careers. Williams is going to improve.

[CoolHandLuke]

Is ERA+ just a relationship between the pitchers ERA and the League average ERA? Like a 100 would be exactly league average and >100 would be above league average and <100 would be below league average? If so I do not put much stock into since I would much rather look at HR/9, K/BB, K/9 and BB/9 when predicting future success.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Is ERA+ just a relationship between the pitchers ERA and the League average ERA? Like a 100 would be exactly league average and >100 would be above league average and <100 would be below league average? If so I do not put much stock into since I would much rather look at HR/9, K/BB, K/9 and BB/9 when predicting future success.

 

I agree, I added ERA+ to show their ERA's were similar, since I just wanted to come up with something quick.

[nolanwood]

Morris and Lowe aren't too likely to improve much at this point in their careers. Williams is going to improve.

 

I agree with the first sentence. There is absolutely NO guarantee Williams will improve, especially when regarding his pitching history.

Edited November 19, 2005 by nolanwood

[CoolHandLuke]

All that said I would prefer Williams over Morris just because of the price tag. Has Williams hit arbitration yet?

[JeffH]

It appears as though he does not yet qualify.

[nolanwood]

All that said I would prefer Williams over Morris just because of the price tag. Has Williams hit arbitration yet?

 

 

The price tag issue definitely needs to be considered, especially after what moves we've done to improve our offense/outfield/etc - which I consider top priority.

 

And again, don't get me wrong, I was pleased with Williams production as our 5th starter last year....

[CuseCubFan69]

Where's goony to tell everyone how dumb it would be to spend $7-$8 million a year over three years for Matt Morris when Jerome Williams is already on the team and we have no outfield?

 

I was satisfied with Williams production last year as a 5th man, don't get me wrong. But Williams is a far cry from the production of Lowe or Morris at this point in the game. And it's a fact that quality pitching will when you more games than offense. Yes, I think our offense/outfield needs to be addressed first. But, I think both issues could be solved within our budget. And a rotation of:

 

Prior

Z

Wood (barring a healthy season)

Maddux

Morris / Lowe

 

.....would be absolutely devastating!

 

Williams as a Cub: 3.91 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 109 ERA+

 

Lowe: 3.61 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 113 ERA+

Morris: 4.11 ERA, 1.27, 104 ERA+

 

That doesn't look like a far cry at all. In fact, he was better than Morris.

 

 

This is what scares me about Williams....

 

As a Cub: 59k / 44bb

 

You'r also completely disregarding his numbers last year with the Giants, and also disregarding the fact that those Cubs #'s are based on 100 ip's - half of the ip's of Lowe / Morris.

 

I think as the season progressed so did Williams K/BB or at the very least his strike/ball ratio.

[nolanwood]

I think as the season progressed so did Williams K/BB or at the very least his strike/ball ratio.

 

Actually, heres' his K/BB ratio broken down from July - the end of the season:

 

July: 17K 11BB

 

August: 15K 14BB

 

Sep/Oct: 19K 15BB

 

I don't see an improvment....maybe his strike/ball ratio improved?

[CoolHandLuke]

While looking at Willams' game logs I found something pretty peculiar. Jerome started the games on 7/7, 8/8 and 9/9. Pretty pretty interesting.

[CuseCubFan69]

While looking at Willams' game logs I found something pretty peculiar. Jerome started the games on 7/7, 8/8 and 9/9. Pretty pretty interesting.

 

Too bad we couldn't have had 10/10 too!

[CuseCubFan69]

I think as the season progressed so did Williams K/BB or at the very least his strike/ball ratio.

 

Actually, heres' his K/BB ratio broken down from July - the end of the season:

 

July: 17K 11BB

 

August: 15K 14BB

 

Sep/Oct: 19K 15BB

 

I don't see an improvment....maybe his strike/ball ratio improved?

 

Interesting Nolan. He had to have been ahead in the count more in the second half....I'm hoping or he was just more lucky. Also, he could have had some blowup games and they skewed the stats.

[CoolHandLuke]

http://img368.imageshack.us/img368/34/jwillstrike4xe.jpg

 

Jerome Williams game by game strike percentages.

 

Don't know what it means if anything. Looks like, a few starts aside, he was right around 60%.

[YearofDaCubs]

I see no reason to get rid of Williams especially for Morris who IMO you don;t know which Morris you will be getting. If you want to make a run at SP, Burnett should be the man but he comes at a price.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

I see no reason to get rid of Williams especially for Morris who IMO you don;t know which Morris you will be getting. If you want to make a run at SP, Burnett should be the man but he comes at a price.

 

Burnett might be worth 10-12M per year, but 5 years? ouch.

[YearofDaCubs]

I see no reason to get rid of Williams especially for Morris who IMO you don;t know which Morris you will be getting. If you want to make a run at SP, Burnett should be the man but he comes at a price.

 

Burnett might be worth 10-12M per year, but 5 years? ouch.

I agree. The amount of years and money I hear for Furcal and Burnett are scary.

[nolanwood]

Burnett's injury issues scare me as well....especially for that price tag.

 

Lowe would be my preference. Actually, I'd love to see us send Williams or Rusch & prospects to Pitt for Duke. Too bad that day will never come....

[MPrior]

Likely $40/4 or so for a 31 year old who couldn't even reach 200 IP in a supposedly "great" year?

 

Brutal.

 

If Hendry wants to add a high salary starter and is scared off by Burnett, consider Derek Lowe ($28.5/3) or Javier Vazquez ($18/2).

 

I don't want either of those guys, but please stay away from the wildly overrated Millwood.

 

I would welcome Derek Lowe, he would be great in Wrigley (despite the odd amount of HRs last year), especially if we have an improved middle infield. I'd trade Walker and JVB for Lowe and Bradley. You have to sign furcal. I'd then trade for Abreu and if reports are correct that Bradley may not be ready by the time the season starts then also get Michaels. Patterson, Mitre, Williams, a pitching prospect and (if its in the next ten days) Greenberg. I wouldn't mind going into next year with this roster

 

Furcal

Bradley/Michaels

Lee

Abreu

ARam

Murton

Barrett

Cedeno

 

Z

Prior

Wood

Lowe

Maddux

 

Dempster

Williamson

Eyre

Wuertz

Ohman

Rusch

 

Michaels/Bradley

Perez

Hairston

Blanco

Sweeny

Branyan (or RH equivalent, Wigginton?)

 

That puts us at the 110M range and acheives Hendrys vision of having a surplus at every position. Frankly the only way he can do it is to slightly raise the payroll.

 

I know this is a ways back, but talk about understatement. It would be a miracle if we go into 06 with anything like that roster.

 

And no, there's no way we're getting Zach Duke. Which is a shame.