11/20 Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers

[goonys evil twin]

And you're right...Kyle isn't winning the games....but he's not losing them either. My point is, that we don't know if Grossman will be able to do the same...not lose games. You still haven't addressed what would happen if Grossman comes in and performs poorly. I think that's got to be a consideration.

 

None of this is to say that Grossman won't be, or isn't now, a better quarterback than Orton. Perhaps he is. But maybe he isn't. And is the playoff push really the time you want to find out? My argument isn't, and hasn't been, against the move itself, merely the timing of it. I think it's best left to offseason, injury, or Kyle losing us games.

 

Every indication was the Bears judged Rex as the better QB this summer. I can't see how Orton's play could have changed that, and I don't think Grossman's injury takes that away. I'm not sure Kyle hasn't lost games, his inability to do a thing in the Cleveland and Washington games was a big reason for those losses, and he most definitely lost the Bengals game.

 

What would happen if Grossman sucked? First off, the Bears wouldn't be the first team to make a QB change and then reverse course after things didn't go well. But the point is you make this change because you know Rex is better than Orton right now. I think worrying about what if Rex sucks is a waste of time. You play to win games, not to avoid sucking. If Rex sucks, make the change then. I don't buy the don't change a good thing theory, not when you'd be changing the least impressive thing about the good thing.

 

Either way, I let this game play out, and probably even the GB game before I make a change. It's not a pressing matter now, but the Vikings play nobody the rest of the way and could easily go 5-1. I wouldn't wait until after they make it close to make a move. There's a good chance Orton gets injured, plays like crap or the Bears lose a couple in the next few weeks. That'll make the move easier. And if the Bears do make the playoffs, I wouldn't just give the job to Orton if Rex is better, which all indications say is the case. I'd like to see the best team they can field in the playoffs, and that change should be made before the playoffs.

[David]

Fox Sports's take on the situation..

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5105866

 

Still, the Bears face two major obstacles in their final playoff push. First, they have a difficult schedule the rest of the season. They close with four of their final six games on the road and play three teams with winning records. A win at Tampa Bay this weekend, however, will make them serious contenders for a first-round bye.

 

The bigger problem is the abysmal play they have received from rookie Kyle Orton at quarterback. Because the Bears are winning, most people think Orton has developed into a competent game manager. In reality, he is among the worst starting quarterbacks in football. Playing behind a solid offensive line with a potent run offense, he is completing only 55 percent of his passes for an anemic 5.26 yards per attempt. Despite mainstream media reports that Orton is playing safe football, he has thrown 11 interceptions and fumbled eight times.

 

DPAR is a statistic that measures how many points a player has added above a replacement level player. Orton has an abysmal -26.3 DPAR, second worst in the league. His DVOA of -38.4 percent ranks 38th of the 41 quarterbacks who have attempted 80 passes. The lowest DVOA of any quarterback to start a playoff game since 1998 is -23.8 percent, posted by Anthony Wright in 2003. Orton is only a rookie, but at this point in his career, he is not ready to be a starting quarterback. The three scoring drives against Carolina totaled 55 yards, and he threw an interception deep in Carolina territory on Chicago's most impressive drive.

 

Granted, 5 of Kyle's interceptions came in one game. But this basically jibes with how I feel about Orton.

 

The kid has been good for a rookie, but, and I can't overstate this, absolutely horrible for an NFL QB. There's nothing to lose by trying Rex. It's basically inconceivable that he could be any worse, and there's a good chance he could be better.

 

To me, saying that Orton has been a good QB based solely on the fact that we're winning is analagous to saying that Russ Ortiz was a great pitcher in 2003 because he had 20+ wins. (Yea, yea, different sports; but the comparison still holds some merit)

 

Fact is, the Bears are winning the games Orton starts because of their defense, just like the Braves won Russ Ortiz's games because of their offense.

[Banedon]

Fox Sports's take on the situation..

 

Even the media is divided...Sportsline.com's take...

 

http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/story/9059265

 

2nd question down.

 

By the way...has the Harmon forecastpicked against the Bears on every single game this season, or is it just me?

[David]

Fox Sports's take on the situation..

 

Even the media is divided...Sportsline.com's take...

 

http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/story/9059265

 

2nd question down.

 

By the way...has the Harmon forecastpicked against the Bears on every single game this season, or is it just me?

 

I'd have to say that's one of "mainstream media reports that Orton is playing safe football." :wink:

 

Not directed at you at all, but those "expert" opinions like on the CBS site mean little to me. The same experts said that the Bears would be horrible this year. I'd really like someone to offer some statistical evidence backing why Kyle Orton at this stage in his development is a better choice than Rex (or, hell, just about anybody) to quarterback this team down the stretch and into the playoffs.

 

I don't buy into the continuity argument, either. Our offense is just continually bad.

 

The fact is, I think we could be doing just as well with Jeff Blake under center, right now. (That's not to say I would like to see that, since I would rather have the younger guy in there, if they're both gonna suck anyway)....

[goonys evil twin]

I view it as playing it safe and going for the gold. Every defense of Orton says the team is playing well despite his poor play, so don't fix what's not broken. That is a play not to lose mentality, or a cover your butt strategy. It's easy to say the Bears have won 7 games under Orton, so I'll stick with him. If they fall short, you can always say you stuck with the guy who brought you there. But the goal is not just to hang on and try to win the division. The goal is to be the best possible.

 

It would be different if the returning veteran was a journeyman with no future on the team. I'm not asking them to reinsert Brad Johnson, Jay Fiedler or Kurt Warner. Rex can still be the franchise QB. By all accounts, they will still be counting on him to be the franchise QB next year. At the very least he's still in the picture. Orton was drafted as a backup plan and developmental project in case Grossman busts in the next couple years. Until Orton starts playing better, Rex has to be considered the better of the two. So play the better QB. Orton isn't playing well enough to win many playoff games against good teams. Rex could be the difference between making it to the NFC championship game or being happy with just making the playoffs.

 

We know Orton isn't going to go into NY or Seattle and win a playoff game for the Bears on the strength of his arm. Playoff teams shut down one dimensional offenses. Rex is no guarantee to get it done, but he's got a better chance than Kyle.

 

It comes back to what is your biggest motivation. Do you think the Bears are getting lucky and therefore don't want to mess with karma? If so, go the safe route, stick with Orton until he gets hurt or fails, then you can always say you were just playing the hot hand. Or, do you think the Bears are good and want to see the best player possible on the field at each position, in hopes that not only will you win the division, but may lock-up a first round bye and win in the playoffs? Then I think you have to let Kyle start this week, and unless he starts to improve a lot, and soon, then go with Grossman.

[gus_dog]

I look at it this way - When Grossman is 100%, get him out there playing. If he is not 100%, then he carries the clipboard. I don't care if he's 95%, keep him on the sidelines until he can physically perform at top flight.

 

Once he is 100%, I don't understand why you would ever keep him on the sidelines.

 

Orton is the guy who should be carrying the clipboard right now - he's only playing out of necessity. He is adequate, and I think his future is bright, but really, Grossman is the superior player, IMO.

[David]

Apparently, Ford and Kittner were cut today.

 

Sure makes it seem like Rex will be in uniform Sunday.

 

Anybody know if they are gonna pick up Airese Currie?

[Banedon]

Fox Sports's take on the situation..

 

Even the media is divided...Sportsline.com's take...

 

http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/story/9059265

 

2nd question down.

 

By the way...has the Harmon forecastpicked against the Bears on every single game this season, or is it just me?

 

I'd have to say that's one of "mainstream media reports that Orton is playing safe football." :wink:

 

Not directed at you at all, but those "expert" opinions like on the CBS site mean little to me. The same experts said that the Bears would be horrible this year. I'd really like someone to offer some statistical evidence backing why Kyle Orton at this stage in his development is a better choice than Rex (or, hell, just about anybody) to quarterback this team down the stretch and into the playoffs.

 

Err...wait a minute. Fox sports is ok to use in an argument, but CBS isn't? They're all just opinions.

[David]

Fox Sports's take on the situation..

 

Even the media is divided...Sportsline.com's take...

 

http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/story/9059265

 

2nd question down.

 

By the way...has the Harmon forecastpicked against the Bears on every single game this season, or is it just me?

 

I'd have to say that's one of "mainstream media reports that Orton is playing safe football." :wink:

 

Not directed at you at all, but those "expert" opinions like on the CBS site mean little to me. The same experts said that the Bears would be horrible this year. I'd really like someone to offer some statistical evidence backing why Kyle Orton at this stage in his development is a better choice than Rex (or, hell, just about anybody) to quarterback this team down the stretch and into the playoffs.

 

Err...wait a minute. Fox sports is ok to use in an argument, but CBS isn't? They're all just opinions.

 

Fox Sports mainly listed statististics-what looks like a football version of VORP (which I found pretty interesting, hadn't heard of it before).

 

There's not much opinion there. Just facts. Stats and rankings.

 

What Pete Prisco and Clark Judge think (read: opinion) about who should play has little importance; especially when they're not the ones making the decisions.

[Banedon]

Fox Sports's take on the situation..

 

Even the media is divided...Sportsline.com's take...

 

http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/story/9059265

 

2nd question down.

 

By the way...has the Harmon forecastpicked against the Bears on every single game this season, or is it just me?

 

I'd have to say that's one of "mainstream media reports that Orton is playing safe football." :wink:

 

Not directed at you at all, but those "expert" opinions like on the CBS site mean little to me. The same experts said that the Bears would be horrible this year. I'd really like someone to offer some statistical evidence backing why Kyle Orton at this stage in his development is a better choice than Rex (or, hell, just about anybody) to quarterback this team down the stretch and into the playoffs.

 

Err...wait a minute. Fox sports is ok to use in an argument, but CBS isn't? They're all just opinions.

 

Fox Sports mainly listed statististics-what looks like a football version of VORP (which I found pretty interesting, hadn't heard of it before).

 

There's not much opinion there. Just facts. Stats and rankings.

 

What Pete Prisco and Clark Judge think (read: opinion) about who should play has little importance; especially when they're not the ones making the decisions.

 

Stats can say a lot of things...I wonder if you take that 5 INT game out of the equation how those numbers would look. Too me that's his only BAD game. He's had a lot of average games.

 

Anyway, I'm not gonna argue this further, because I think we're all pretty set on how we're thinking here. We'll see what Lovie does, but coaches don't tend to like to mess with success from what I've seen, so as long as they're winning, I wouldn't expect much change.

[David]

http://chicagobears.com/news/newsDetail.jsp?id=12398

 

It's official

 

LAKE FOREST, Ill. - For the first time in 14 months, quarterback Rex Grossman will be in uniform for a regular season game Sunday when the Bears visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

 

"Just to suit up again will be a milestone for me," Grossman said. "It's a goal that I set for myself to be back for this game and I'm achieving that goal. Just to get back out there with the guys and to play football again is fun. It feels good to be healthy again and come back from this injury."

[Jon]

Lovie just said Rex will not play Sunday. He's the #3 QB and won't get in there even if it's a blowout.

[David]

Lovie just said Rex will not play Sunday. He's the #3 QB and won't get in there even if it's a blowout.

 

Yea, makes sense. He's still only around 90%.

 

Of course, if Orton AND Blake get hurt... lol

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I'm definitely in the play-Rex-when-he's-100% camp and it's good news that Rex is uniform. At the very least, in a week or so, Jeff Blake won't be the backup. :)

[Banedon]

I'm definitely in the play-Rex-when-he's-100% camp and it's good news that Rex is uniform. At the very least, in a week or so, Jeff Blake won't be the backup. :)

 

And that...I think we can allll agree is a GOOD thing... :P