Dempster

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

What will it take (years/money/options) to resign Dempster as a closer?

 

 

I realize that we could go after a FA or someone via trade. I'm just asking what it will take to get him if we do want to retain his services as a closer.

[Beer Kaese]

Two months ago you could have said 2 mil and a team option with a 500k buyout. The guy has been excellent and seems well suited so I'd think a 2 year with option/vesting incentives at 4, 4, 5 with a 1 buyout would be a steal. He should be able to get endorsement deals in the city doing Harry to make up the slack?!?

[erik316wttn]

I think he could be had at 2 years, $10 million. A reasonable price.

 

And I think he should have the closers job until he proves he can't do it anymore. Who cares if he's not "dominant." He gets results, and that's the only thing that matters.

 

What would it say to your players, or any potential FA's to pretty much say to Dempster that "yeah, you did good and gave us no reasons to doubt you, but we're replacing you anyway." Kind of a crappy way to reward someone for a great performance.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Unless we're making a run at Wagner or B.J. Ryan, I'd hope they will make re-signing Dempster a priority. 10 million over two years seems like a fair price.

[CuseCubFan69]

How are the Red Sox and Yankee pens? I think they might have an interest in Dempster too and that will put his price up IMO unless he is loyal which is what Cub fans have to hope for.

[mg420]

I think he could be had at 2 years, $10 million. A reasonable price.

 

And I think he should have the closers job until he proves he can't do it anymore. Who cares if he's not "dominant." He gets results, and that's the only thing that matters.

 

What would it say to your players, or any potential FA's to pretty much say to Dempster that "yeah, you did good and gave us no reasons to doubt you, but we're replacing you anyway." Kind of a crappy way to reward someone for a great performance.

 

i would consider 30/31 in saves with an era under 2.00 as being "dominant" myself. after what they went through with jobo & hawkins, i would hope the cubs will do everything they can to resign him - maybe 24mil/3 yrs? if the cubs do put wood in the pen next year, i forsee alot of 6 inning games with wood going 7 & 8 and ryan in the 9th (simliar to the dotel/wagner era in houston).

[goonys evil twin]

I think he could be had at 2 years, $10 million. A reasonable price.

 

And I think he should have the closers job until he proves he can't do it anymore. Who cares if he's not "dominant." He gets results, and that's the only thing that matters.

 

What would it say to your players, or any potential FA's to pretty much say to Dempster that "yeah, you did good and gave us no reasons to doubt you, but we're replacing you anyway." Kind of a crappy way to reward someone for a great performance.

 

i would consider 30/31 in saves with an era under 2.00 as being "dominant" myself. after what they went through with jobo & hawkins, i would hope the cubs will do everything they can to resign him - maybe 24mil/3 yrs?

 

Remember, that what they "went through" with JoBo was a year of great pitching in the setup role, followed by a year of great pitching in the closer's role, then a meltdown. Dempster has been no more dominant than Joe was in their first years as closers. 3/24 is way too much at this point. I'd consider as much as 2/12, but Ryan has never shown any consistency in his career (aside from consistently missing the plate), so 3 years is a bit too long to guarantee that type of salary.

 

As bad as Joe turned out to be, the financial hit was pretty low since Jim stayed relatively smart with that deal.

[CuseCubFan69]

I think he could be had at 2 years, $10 million. A reasonable price.

 

And I think he should have the closers job until he proves he can't do it anymore. Who cares if he's not "dominant." He gets results, and that's the only thing that matters.

 

What would it say to your players, or any potential FA's to pretty much say to Dempster that "yeah, you did good and gave us no reasons to doubt you, but we're replacing you anyway." Kind of a crappy way to reward someone for a great performance.

 

i would consider 30/31 in saves with an era under 2.00 as being "dominant" myself. after what they went through with jobo & hawkins, i would hope the cubs will do everything they can to resign him - maybe 24mil/3 yrs?

 

Remember, that what they "went through" with JoBo was a year of great pitching in the setup role, followed by a year of great pitching in the closer's role, then a meltdown. Dempster has been no more dominant than Joe was in their first years as closers. 3/24 is way too much at this point. I'd consider as much as 2/12, but Ryan has never shown any consistency in his career (aside from consistently missing the plate), so 3 years is a bit too long to guarantee that type of salary.

 

As bad as Joe turned out to be, the financial hit was pretty low since Jim stayed relatively smart with that deal.

 

Are you assuming that the Cubs are competing against themselves in bidding for Dempster because IMO it is going to be a lot more competitive trying to resign Dempster than reuping on an arb eligable JoBo.

[goonys evil twin]

Are you assuming that the Cubs are competing against themselves in bidding for Dempster because IMO it is going to be a lot more competitive trying to resign Dempster than reuping on an arb eligable JoBo.

 

It'll certainly cost more than Joe's deal. I wasn't trying to compare them dollar for dollar. If some other team is willing to go 3/24 on Dempster, I'd much rather go 3/30 on Wagner, or 3/27 on Ryan.

[CuseCubFan69]

Are you assuming that the Cubs are competing against themselves in bidding for Dempster because IMO it is going to be a lot more competitive trying to resign Dempster than reuping on an arb eligable JoBo.

 

It'll certainly cost more than Joe's deal. I wasn't trying to compare them dollar for dollar. If some other team is willing to go 3/24 on Dempster, I'd much rather go 3/30 on Wagner, or 3/27 on Ryan.

 

How many teams are looking for a closer in 2006? This is going to be an interesting decision for Mr. Hendry and how he allocates the funds.

Edited September 26, 2005 by CuseCubFan69

[mg420]

I think he could be had at 2 years, $10 million. A reasonable price.

 

And I think he should have the closers job until he proves he can't do it anymore. Who cares if he's not "dominant." He gets results, and that's the only thing that matters.

 

What would it say to your players, or any potential FA's to pretty much say to Dempster that "yeah, you did good and gave us no reasons to doubt you, but we're replacing you anyway." Kind of a crappy way to reward someone for a great performance.

 

i would consider 30/31 in saves with an era under 2.00 as being "dominant" myself. after what they went through with jobo & hawkins, i would hope the cubs will do everything they can to resign him - maybe 24mil/3 yrs?

 

Remember, that what they "went through" with JoBo was a year of great pitching in the setup role, followed by a year of great pitching in the closer's role, then a meltdown. Dempster has been no more dominant than Joe was in their first years as closers. 3/24 is way too much at this point. I'd consider as much as 2/12, but Ryan has never shown any consistency in his career (aside from consistently missing the plate), so 3 years is a bit too long to guarantee that type of salary.

 

As bad as Joe turned out to be, the financial hit was pretty low since Jim stayed relatively smart with that deal.

 

i liked jobo alot when he was healthy. what i meant was what they went through when he was injured & wasnt ever able to get back to form and had to use guys like hawkins & remmy to close. after the year he's had if the cubs dont give a competative offer, they will probably lose him and be back at square one when it comes to closer. he's still young and his stuff is wicked enough to justify 24/3 imo. consistency is over rated in many cases anyway and mostly it's a big crap shoot (see hawkins & remlinger).

[goonys evil twin]

i liked jobo alot when he was healthy. what i meant was what they went through when he was injured & wasnt ever able to get back to form and had to use guys like hawkins & remmy to close. after the year he's had if the cubs dont give a competative offer, they will probably lose him and be back at square one when it comes to closer. he's still young and his stuff is wicked enough to justify 24/3 imo. consistency is over rated in many cases anyway and mostly it's a big crap shoot (see hawkins & remlinger).

 

Consistency is overrated?

 

A lot of guys have the "stuff" to justify a 3/24 contract. Not all of them back it up with repeatable success. Dempster's one year of success as a closer, without dominant peripherals, has justified a pretty significant 2 year deal. However, if you go to 3 years, and you spend that much per year, there are better options. Dempster at 3/24 is equivalent to Ryan at something like 4/40. Ryan is much more dominant than Dempster, and much more reliable. Wagner, same thing. I don't see those guys getting those deals, and Dempster shouldn't get anything that contends with those numbers.

[mg420]

i liked jobo alot when he was healthy. what i meant was what they went through when he was injured & wasnt ever able to get back to form and had to use guys like hawkins & remmy to close. after the year he's had if the cubs dont give a competative offer, they will probably lose him and be back at square one when it comes to closer. he's still young and his stuff is wicked enough to justify 24/3 imo. consistency is over rated in many cases anyway and mostly it's a big crap shoot (see hawkins & remlinger).

 

Consistency is overrated?

 

A lot of guys have the "stuff" to justify a 3/24 contract. Not all of them back it up with repeatable success. Dempster's one year of success as a closer, without dominant peripherals, has justified a pretty significant 2 year deal. However, if you go to 3 years, and you spend that much per year, there are better options. Dempster at 3/24 is equivalent to Ryan at something like 4/40. Ryan is much more dominant than Dempster, and much more reliable. Wagner, same thing. I don't see those guys getting those deals, and Dempster shouldn't get anything that contends with those numbers.

 

again, look at how consistant remmy & hawkins were before they got to chicago. granted, they were not used very well at times by baker (no suprise there) but they were not very effective compared to their history the whole time they were here. if hendry signs dempster to a 24/3 contract and he stays healthy & saves 45 games a year, it will have been a great move. if dempster gets hurt or blows up, it will have been a bad deal. if you are talking about bj ryan btw, i dont see how 34 saves in 39 with a 2.55 era ops is "much more dominate" than 30 saves in 31 ops with a 1.98 era.

[HoopsCubs]

What will it take (years/money/options) to resign Dempster as a closer?

 

 

I realize that we could go after a FA or someone via trade. I'm just asking what it will take to get him if we do want to retain his services as a closer.

 

I'm guessing 2 years/$10M with a vesting 3rd year option for $7M can get it done. I think Ryan wants to stay here.

[goonys evil twin]

i liked jobo alot when he was healthy. what i meant was what they went through when he was injured & wasnt ever able to get back to form and had to use guys like hawkins & remmy to close. after the year he's had if the cubs dont give a competative offer, they will probably lose him and be back at square one when it comes to closer. he's still young and his stuff is wicked enough to justify 24/3 imo. consistency is over rated in many cases anyway and mostly it's a big crap shoot (see hawkins & remlinger).

 

Consistency is overrated?

 

A lot of guys have the "stuff" to justify a 3/24 contract. Not all of them back it up with repeatable success. Dempster's one year of success as a closer, without dominant peripherals, has justified a pretty significant 2 year deal. However, if you go to 3 years, and you spend that much per year, there are better options. Dempster at 3/24 is equivalent to Ryan at something like 4/40. Ryan is much more dominant than Dempster, and much more reliable. Wagner, same thing. I don't see those guys getting those deals, and Dempster shouldn't get anything that contends with those numbers.

 

again, look at how consistant remmy & hawkins were before they got to chicago. granted, they were not used very well at times by baker (no suprise there) but they were not very effective compared to their history the whole time they were here. if hendry signs dempster to a 24/3 contract and he stays healthy & saves 45 games a year, it will have been a great move. if dempster gets hurt or blows up, it will have been a bad deal. if you are talking about bj ryan btw, i dont see how 34 saves in 39 with a 2.55 era ops is "much more dominate" than 30 saves in 31 ops with a 1.98 era.

 

Save percentage is not a great sign of dominance, especially when you are talking about a time frame of under one season. Ryan has been a consistently dominating reliever for 3 years, with excellent peripherals numbers that should lead to confidence in his ability to maintain that dominance. Dempster has less than a season's worth of success as a reliever with less dominant peripherals. Things like k/9, bb/9, k/bb, WHIP are all leaning pretty heavily toward Ryan.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

i liked jobo alot when he was healthy. what i meant was what they went through when he was injured & wasnt ever able to get back to form and had to use guys like hawkins & remmy to close. after the year he's had if the cubs dont give a competative offer, they will probably lose him and be back at square one when it comes to closer. he's still young and his stuff is wicked enough to justify 24/3 imo. consistency is over rated in many cases anyway and mostly it's a big crap shoot (see hawkins & remlinger).

 

Consistency is overrated?

 

A lot of guys have the "stuff" to justify a 3/24 contract. Not all of them back it up with repeatable success. Dempster's one year of success as a closer, without dominant peripherals, has justified a pretty significant 2 year deal. However, if you go to 3 years, and you spend that much per year, there are better options. Dempster at 3/24 is equivalent to Ryan at something like 4/40. Ryan is much more dominant than Dempster, and much more reliable. Wagner, same thing. I don't see those guys getting those deals, and Dempster shouldn't get anything that contends with those numbers.

 

again, look at how consistant remmy & hawkins were before they got to chicago. granted, they were not used very well at times by baker (no suprise there) but they were not very effective compared to their history the whole time they were here. if hendry signs dempster to a 24/3 contract and he stays healthy & saves 45 games a year, it will have been a great move. if dempster gets hurt or blows up, it will have been a bad deal. if you are talking about bj ryan btw, i dont see how 34 saves in 39 with a 2.55 era ops is "much more dominate" than 30 saves in 31 ops with a 1.98 era.

 

Save percentage is not a great sign of dominance, especially when you are talking about a time frame of under one season. Ryan has been a consistently dominating reliever for 3 years, with excellent peripherals numbers that should lead to confidence in his ability to maintain that dominance. Dempster has less than a season's worth of success as a reliever with less dominant peripherals. Things like k/9, bb/9, k/bb, WHIP are all leaning pretty heavily toward Ryan.

 

Ryan is the better pitcher, but is his obtainable? He's going to command top dollar in this market, that's for sure.

[NorthsideAvenger]

What will it take (years/money/options) to resign Dempster as a closer?

 

 

I realize that we could go after a FA or someone via trade. I'm just asking what it will take to get him if we do want to retain his services as a closer.

 

I'm guessing 2 years/$10M with a vesting 3rd year option for $7M can get it done. I think Ryan wants to stay here.

 

And loyal too. Ryan is going to give the Cubs the first crack to signing him. BUT, I think he is going to wait and see what Wagner and Ryan are going to get, before he decides to re-signs with the Cubs. And seeing as Hendry is a loyal man (coughsBakercoughs), I believe Hendry won't go after Ryan or Wagner, and wait for the market to settle down before he re-sign Demspter.

 

IMO, Dempster doesn't leave northside of Chicago.

[mg420]

i liked jobo alot when he was healthy. what i meant was what they went through when he was injured & wasnt ever able to get back to form and had to use guys like hawkins & remmy to close. after the year he's had if the cubs dont give a competative offer, they will probably lose him and be back at square one when it comes to closer. he's still young and his stuff is wicked enough to justify 24/3 imo. consistency is over rated in many cases anyway and mostly it's a big crap shoot (see hawkins & remlinger).

 

Consistency is overrated?

 

A lot of guys have the "stuff" to justify a 3/24 contract. Not all of them back it up with repeatable success. Dempster's one year of success as a closer, without dominant peripherals, has justified a pretty significant 2 year deal. However, if you go to 3 years, and you spend that much per year, there are better options. Dempster at 3/24 is equivalent to Ryan at something like 4/40. Ryan is much more dominant than Dempster, and much more reliable. Wagner, same thing. I don't see those guys getting those deals, and Dempster shouldn't get anything that contends with those numbers.

 

again, look at how consistant remmy & hawkins were before they got to chicago. granted, they were not used very well at times by baker (no suprise there) but they were not very effective compared to their history the whole time they were here. if hendry signs dempster to a 24/3 contract and he stays healthy & saves 45 games a year, it will have been a great move. if dempster gets hurt or blows up, it will have been a bad deal. if you are talking about bj ryan btw, i dont see how 34 saves in 39 with a 2.55 era ops is "much more dominate" than 30 saves in 31 ops with a 1.98 era.

 

Save percentage is not a great sign of dominance, especially when you are talking about a time frame of under one season. Ryan has been a consistently dominating reliever for 3 years, with excellent peripherals numbers that should lead to confidence in his ability to maintain that dominance. Dempster has less than a season's worth of success as a reliever with less dominant peripherals. Things like k/9, bb/9, k/bb, WHIP are all leaning pretty heavily toward Ryan.

 

better (or more dominate) reliever doesnt mean better closer. # sometimes do not translate into effectiveness when changing roles. the mental aspect of closing far outweighs any physical differences imo. hawkins was a dominate set up man who was never able to use his abilities to effectively close games while a guy like hoffman (who now throws in the high 80's) is a dominate closer. dont forget about the fact that ryan will be changing leauges. that can sometimes a major factor in effectiveness for a pitcher.

[TheDude]

Can we refer to Ryan Dempster as Dempster, and BJ Ryan, as Ryan? The liberal use of Ryan for both players is confusing me.

 

Anyway, I would look to keep Dempster at 2/10. He certainly surprised me. I have long held that guys like Dempster (and even Wood) will not be successful closers because they often are wild while they are finding rhythm in the first inning they pitch. First inning walks are common with these guys.

 

Can they be dominant? Absolutley. 1 inning shut-down though? I don't know. I'd rather have a guy with 2 great pitches who throws strikes at a much higher clip.

[goonys evil twin]

better (or more dominate) reliever doesnt mean better closer. # sometimes do not translate into effectiveness when changing roles. the mental aspect of closing far outweighs any physical differences imo. hawkins was a dominate set up man who was never able to use his abilities to effectively close games while a guy like hoffman (who now throws in the high 80's) is a dominate closer. dont forget about the fact that ryan will be changing leauges. that can sometimes a major factor in effectiveness for a pitcher.

 

It's this kind of thinking that caused the Alfonseca trade; look at save totals, ignore peripherals.

[badger1679666666]

better (or more dominate) reliever doesnt mean better closer. # sometimes do not translate into effectiveness when changing roles. the mental aspect of closing far outweighs any physical differences imo. hawkins was a dominate set up man who was never able to use his abilities to effectively close games while a guy like hoffman (who now throws in the high 80's) is a dominate closer. dont forget about the fact that ryan will be changing leauges. that can sometimes a major factor in effectiveness for a pitcher.

 

It's this kind of thinking that caused the Alfonseca trade; look at save totals, ignore peripherals.

 

What's Dempster's ERA as a closer, and his BAA? It should be pretty indicative of his ability since he rarely if ever comes in with runners on.

[Fred Hornkohl]

What's Dempster's ERA as a closer, and his BAA? It should be pretty indicative of his ability since he rarely if ever comes in with runners on.

 

05/10 - 09/25              IP    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    PC  BB/9   K/9  HR/9  WHIP   ERA
Dempster                 55.3   41   12   10   25   49    1   914  4.07  7.97  0.16  1.19  1.63

[mg420]

better (or more dominate) reliever doesnt mean better closer. # sometimes do not translate into effectiveness when changing roles. the mental aspect of closing far outweighs any physical differences imo. hawkins was a dominate set up man who was never able to use his abilities to effectively close games while a guy like hoffman (who now throws in the high 80's) is a dominate closer. dont forget about the fact that ryan will be changing leauges. that can sometimes a major factor in effectiveness for a pitcher.

 

It's this kind of thinking that caused the Alfonseca trade; look at save totals, ignore peripherals.

 

and your kind of thinking is what lead to using hawkins to close. he's got great stuff so he should be a great closer.

[mg420]

What's Dempster's ERA as a closer, and his BAA? It should be pretty indicative of his ability since he rarely if ever comes in with runners on.

 

05/10 - 09/25              IP    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    PC  BB/9   K/9  HR/9  WHIP   ERA
Dempster                 55.3   41   12   10   25   49    1   914  4.07  7.97  0.16  1.19  1.63

 

what is the "PC" stat of 914 btw?

[Tim]

pitch count