anyone else worried about prior?

[neely crenshaw]

prior has been ok record wise but his peformance has not even what most would call "good". he has been consistent and kept us in games but since his first 3 starts(which were dominating) he has an era of well over 4. and it is well over 5 since july. his pitch count continues to look like kerry's.this has been a fairly large sample size like 22 starts so i am very worried that this is what prior will be and that we may never see the prior of 2003. he is not bad by any stretch but when you have based the fortune(and future) of a team on your big 3 pitchers, and only one is performing you are in trouble!

[Derwood]

prior has been ok record wise but his peformance has not even what most would call "good". he has been consistent and kept us in games but since his first 3 starts(which were dominating) he has an era of well over 4. and it is well over 5 since july. his pitch count continues to look like kerry's.this has been a fairly large sample size like 22 starts so i am very worried that this is what prior will be and that we may never see the prior of 2003. he is not bad by any stretch but when you have based the fortune(and future) of a team on your big 3 pitchers, and only one is performing you are in trouble!

 

If he shows no improvement or return to 2003 form next spring, I'll be worried. Any starts "post-Hawpe" have to be judged differently this year I think.

[USSoccer]

He doesn't seem to be varying his speeds along with his location which is partly why he's had high PC, and partly (IMO) why he's given up so many XBH.

 

It's not enough to mix up location when your fastball is consistently sitting at the same speed, and his curve hasn't been as snappy as it has been. His pitches are too easy to foul off, and then he;ll make a mistake in location after 8-10 pitches to a guy in a given AB. If he threw his changeup more, I think you'd see a much more effective pitcher.

 

As Derwood said, though, Post-Hawpe has to be taken into consideration. He did break his elbow, and that has to effect his stuff somehow. The winter should do him good, and come spring 2006 he should be back to normal.

[thedaymen]

He doesn't seem to be varying his speeds along with his location which is partly why he's had high PC, and partly (IMO) why he's given up so many XBH.

 

It's not enough to mix up location when your fastball is consistently sitting at the same speed, and his curve hasn't been as snappy as it has been. His pitches are too easy to foul off, and then he;ll make a mistake in location after 8-10 pitches to a guy in a given AB. If he threw his changeup more, I think you'd see a much more effective pitcher.

 

As Derwood said, though, Post-Hawpe has to be taken into consideration. He did break his elbow, and that has to effect his stuff somehow. The winter should do him good, and come spring 2006 he should be back to normal.

 

Which of course begs the question, why hasn't he been shut down for at least the last month.

[USSoccer]

He doesn't seem to be varying his speeds along with his location which is partly why he's had high PC, and partly (IMO) why he's given up so many XBH.

 

It's not enough to mix up location when your fastball is consistently sitting at the same speed, and his curve hasn't been as snappy as it has been. His pitches are too easy to foul off, and then he;ll make a mistake in location after 8-10 pitches to a guy in a given AB. If he threw his changeup more, I think you'd see a much more effective pitcher.

 

As Derwood said, though, Post-Hawpe has to be taken into consideration. He did break his elbow, and that has to effect his stuff somehow. The winter should do him good, and come spring 2006 he should be back to normal.

 

Which of course begs the question, why hasn't he been shut down for at least the last month.

 

That's a great question. I would go one step further and shut Z down as well.

[YearofDaCubs]

He doesn't seem to be varying his speeds along with his location which is partly why he's had high PC, and partly (IMO) why he's given up so many XBH.

 

It's not enough to mix up location when your fastball is consistently sitting at the same speed, and his curve hasn't been as snappy as it has been. His pitches are too easy to foul off, and then he;ll make a mistake in location after 8-10 pitches to a guy in a given AB. If he threw his changeup more, I think you'd see a much more effective pitcher.

 

As Derwood said, though, Post-Hawpe has to be taken into consideration. He did break his elbow, and that has to effect his stuff somehow. The winter should do him good, and come spring 2006 he should be back to normal.

 

Which of course begs the question, why hasn't he been shut down for at least the last month.

 

That's a great question. I would go one step further and shut Z down as well.

That really does make sense. That way we can give the young ones time to start as well. At the same time though its always good to end the season with the best W/L record and ERA possible. Personally, I would shut down Prior for sure.

[Tim]

I think Prior and Z would take it as an insult if you shut them down now. Instead, I'd just tell them that they're going to be limited to 90 or 100 pitches per outing and that the primary goal should be to see how efficiently they could use them.

[USSoccer]

I think Prior and Z would take it as an insult if you shut them down now. Instead, I'd just tell them that they're going to be limited to 90 or 100 pitches per outing and that the primary goal should be to see how efficiently they could use them.

 

That would make sense, too, but I don't think Baker and to a lesser extent Rothschild have the sort of control to exercise that strict PC. Rothschild might, but I'm not sure how much Baker listens to him anymore.

[Tim]

I think Prior and Z would take it as an insult if you shut them down now. Instead, I'd just tell them that they're going to be limited to 90 or 100 pitches per outing and that the primary goal should be to see how efficiently they could use them.

 

That would make sense, too, but I don't think Baker and to a lesser extent Rothschild have the sort of control to exercise that strict PC. Rothschild might, but I'm not sure how much Baker listens to him anymore.

It's all hypothetical anyway since the guys won't be shut down. I'm just saying what I would do.

[USSoccer]

I think Prior and Z would take it as an insult if you shut them down now. Instead, I'd just tell them that they're going to be limited to 90 or 100 pitches per outing and that the primary goal should be to see how efficiently they could use them.

 

That would make sense, too, but I don't think Baker and to a lesser extent Rothschild have the sort of control to exercise that strict PC. Rothschild might, but I'm not sure how much Baker listens to him anymore.

It's all hypothetical anyway since the guys won't be shut down. I'm just saying what I would do.

 

Understood. Although in Prior's case they do have more justification to shut him down. 90 pitches for him right now might only be 4 innings.

[Tim]

I think Prior and Z would take it as an insult if you shut them down now. Instead, I'd just tell them that they're going to be limited to 90 or 100 pitches per outing and that the primary goal should be to see how efficiently they could use them.

 

That would make sense, too, but I don't think Baker and to a lesser extent Rothschild have the sort of control to exercise that strict PC. Rothschild might, but I'm not sure how much Baker listens to him anymore.

It's all hypothetical anyway since the guys won't be shut down. I'm just saying what I would do.

 

Understood. Although in Prior's case they do have more justification to shut him down. 90 pitches for him right now might only be 4 innings.

Hence why I would stress to them that they should become more efficient if they want to stay out there for 6 or 7 innings. I think it would be an ideal time to have them learn something of that lesson.

[USSoccer]

I think Prior and Z would take it as an insult if you shut them down now. Instead, I'd just tell them that they're going to be limited to 90 or 100 pitches per outing and that the primary goal should be to see how efficiently they could use them.

 

That would make sense, too, but I don't think Baker and to a lesser extent Rothschild have the sort of control to exercise that strict PC. Rothschild might, but I'm not sure how much Baker listens to him anymore.

It's all hypothetical anyway since the guys won't be shut down. I'm just saying what I would do.

 

Understood. Although in Prior's case they do have more justification to shut him down. 90 pitches for him right now might only be 4 innings.

Hence why I would stress to them that they should become more efficient if they want to stay out there for 6 or 7 innings. I think it would be an ideal time to have them learn something of that lesson.

 

Agreed. Do you think, though, that that might be a better lesson taught by whoever ends up being our new pitching coach in ST?

[CuseCubFan69]

I'd like to see Prior work on his changeup more often. I thought he was suppose to have a very good one but I don't remember seeing it that much this year.

[sethuel1]

I'd like to see both of them go out there and throw 130+ pitches in each of their last starts.

 

oh wait, that's what's going to happen.

[Tim]

Hence why I would stress to them that they should become more efficient if they want to stay out there for 6 or 7 innings. I think it would be an ideal time to have them learn something of that lesson.

 

Agreed. Do you think, though, that that might be a better lesson taught by whoever ends up being our new pitching coach in ST?

It couldn't hurt to have them start working on it now.

[ToupeeOnFire]

I don't think it's a good idea to be shutting pitchers down if their health is in tact. Ultimately, these pitchers are going to have to be relied on over the course of a full season and I think it is in the club's long term interest to not baby them now. That's not to say you throw them to the wolves (and I certainly don't approve of Dusty's reckless disregard for pitch counts), but by getting them the experience of pitching over the course of a full season now, you are better preparing them for the future. The only way you are going to build up strength is to pitch.

[frostwyrm]

I think Prior and Z would take it as an insult if you shut them down now. Instead, I'd just tell them that they're going to be limited to 90 or 100 pitches per outing and that the primary goal should be to see how efficiently they could use them.

 

That's what I've wanted for a while now. If you have a 40 man roster and you're out of the playoffs there is no reason your franchise starters should throw more than 100 pitches.

[goonys evil twin]

I think Prior and Z would take it as an insult if you shut them down now. Instead, I'd just tell them that they're going to be limited to 90 or 100 pitches per outing and that the primary goal should be to see how efficiently they could use them.

 

That's what I've wanted for a while now. If you have a 40 man roster and you're out of the playoffs there is no reason your franchise starters should throw more than 100 pitches.

 

Dusty doesn't need a reason to make stupid decisions.

 

I'd love to see them put a limit on those guys. And they should bench Rusch as well, who is pretty worthless at this point. Give a start to Hill and have Mitre piggyback that day.

[CubfaninCA]

prior has been ok record wise but his peformance has not even what most would call "good". he has been consistent and kept us in games but since his first 3 starts(which were dominating) he has an era of well over 4. and it is well over 5 since july. his pitch count continues to look like kerry's.this has been a fairly large sample size like 22 starts so i am very worried that this is what prior will be and that we may never see the prior of 2003. he is not bad by any stretch but when you have based the fortune(and future) of a team on your big 3 pitchers, and only one is performing you are in trouble!

 

Count me in as a little worried. His ERA's good, but since he has trouble getting past the 6th or 7th, I can't consider what he's doing overall as good. Hopefully, it's a result of the early injury and he bounces back next year and becomes dominant as expected.

[thedaymen]

Count me in as a little worried. His ERA's good, but since he has trouble getting past the 6th or 7th, I can't consider what he's doing overall as good. Hopefully, it's a result of the early injury and he bounces back next year and becomes dominant as expected.

 

His terrible first innings, his ever increasing era, his lack of innings pitcher per start....I think I'm beyond worried. I'm beginning to think the Cubs only have one "ace" out of 2003's "Big Three." And he has been overworked an almost criminal amount this year.

[JGalt73]

I think Prior and Z would take it as an insult if you shut them down now. Instead, I'd just tell them that they're going to be limited to 90 or 100 pitches per outing and that the primary goal should be to see how efficiently they could use them.

 

That's what I've wanted for a while now. If you have a 40 man roster and you're out of the playoffs there is no reason your franchise starters should throw more than 100 pitches.

 

I couldn't agree more. It is unconscionable that Prior was allowed to throw 120 pitches in a meaningless game yesterday.

 

In 2005, the most abused pitchers (from BP's metric awarding points for # pitches thrown after 100, 110, 122, 133) are:

 

1. Livan Hernandez

2. Carlos Zambrano

3. Mark Prior

 

THIS IS NOT THE LIST I WANT MY YOUNG PHENOMS TO LEAD!

 

_______________

2004 saw Carlos #3, and Wood #16. (Thankfully, Prior's 21 GS limited him to the top 50).

 

_______________

2003 was a banner year with a division title and 3 of the top 10 overworked pitchers in the game:

 

2. Wood

4. Prior

10. Zambrano

 

It is true that all pitchers are not the same, and some - like Hernandez - can be flogged and never die, but in Prior and Zambrano we are talking about pitchers leading the league in stress at 22, 23, 24 years old. This cannot be good. Dusty has to go. If he too is to blame, Rothschild has to go. Someone stop the madness - this is the future of this team and it can quickly become more bleak.

[Proven Veteran]

It's depressing to see the Cubs young pitchers continuously among the leaders in abuse points. Hopefully some of Prior's non-pitching injuries will help him in the long run, by avoiding getting his arm shredded by Dusty.

[Crash]

I don't know that I am that worried about Prior so much as Baker's use of Prior now that they are out of it.

 

If you look at Prior's game by game log his ERA is inflated by 2 or 3 really bad starts. The May 1st 8 runs against the Astros, July 7th 6 runs against the Braves, and Aug 4th 6 runs against the Phils. His ERA is his other 23 starts is 2.85. Now truthfully this compairson is a bit artifical because every pitcher has bad games, but in 90% of his starts he has pitched pretty well.

 

Out of 26 starts this season he has 21 quality starts. Three of the non quality starts were the previously mentioned blow up games. One was a 5 innning game where he gave up 3 runs. And the last was the game where he was injured by the line drive.

 

Saying all that I think Prior still needs to work on being more efficent with his pitches. I think he wastes too many pitches and could afford to be more agressive against hitters.

 

But when you look back at this season you see a Prior who was darn near lights out before a traumatic injury to his elbow and still threw pretty good after coming back from it. If he can get a little luck next season and not have someone injure him I think we will see a consitently great Prior.

[leatherguts]

I know Jeff Brantley if far from the most respected of analysts, but I seem to remember him making a pretty convincing argument that Prior is not getting the high fastball past hitters like he used to, hence the higher HR/EBH totals and pitch counts.

[Careless]

prior's ER since july 14:

3

3

3

6

3

3

2

3

3

2

2

3

While 2 runs is ace-good if you're going 7+ innings, 2 of the 3 have been in 6 innings (which is still solid), one was in 7.2. Aside from that, a lot of 4-4.5 ERA games and an ERA just over 4 in that time.

30 BB in 80.2 innings. works out to 75 over 200 IP. 15 pitchers are over 70, including zambrano at 82. So definitely not good, but not bad

94 K's, which is the only ace-like number here.

 

13 HR, which would work out to 33 over a 200 inning season Pitchers who figure to have 33+ hr against them at the end of the season (I'm not looking at IP here)

Milton, already at 40, ouch

weaver 34, who doesn't even have the excuse of playing in a hitters park

radke and vazquez at 33

wakefield and lieber at 32 (hitters parks)

horacio ramirez at 31

3 with 30 who aren't likely to make 33.

 

Lot of not-good numbers here.

edit: these numbers are all pre-thursday's game. you can add 1 hr, 4 BBs, 6 IP, 3 ER, 10 K's to that. basically fitting the previous trends perfectly.

I did sort of cherry-pick my starting date, as prior gave up 0 ER in his last start before I counted (I just went back 2 months worth of starts), but the game before that he gave up 6 ER. I'm being unusually fair for me there.