Torrii Hunter anyone?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

The Twins are now denying that Hunter will be traded.

[ltb]

More likely than not, 2006 being the 6th year of his contract, the braves are eating it all should be have to have TJS.

 

incorrect, insurance is covering the majority of his 2006 contract.

[CubfaninCA]

Hunter & Radke for Walker, Patterson, Rusch, Mitre and Wellemeyer.

 

Radke's due $9 million next year, so Minny saves over $10 million in all and can restructure their team. It's not like the current team is winning anything, and Radke will be in the last year of his contract. Probably have to give up more though. Mitre and Welly don't count as much.

[Diffusion]

A team doesn't need obp monsters @ every spot in the order. Unless you have the budget of the Yankees or Red Sox it's unrealistic.

 

Next year the Cubs are quite possibly looking at a $100m payroll. I don't see why it's not possible for the Cubs to field a strong team at every position, especially given that most of that $100m is pretty flexible.

 

Also...

 

Yankees LF -- Tony Womack (.274 OBP) :lol:

 

 

Hunter has been a below average CF for three of the past four years. According to BP, his FRAA numbers have been -17, -5, -1 and 7 from 2002-2005. His overall WARP3 numbers are: 5.0, 4.1, 5.0, 5.0.

 

In that same timeframe, Corey's fielding numbers are: -14, -2, 3, 0. His WARP3 numbers are: 1.5, 3.2, 5.2, 0.7.

 

BP's fielding numbers are useless though.

 

Jerry Hairston, 99 Rate2 in CF in 2005

Corey Patterson, 100 Rate2 in CF in 2005.

 

They're trying to say that the difference defensively between Corey Patterson and Jerry Hairston in CF is one run per 100 games. Or one win per 1000 games.

 

Yuh. Whatever. What a load of rubbish.

[Diffusion]

The Mike Cameron idea is my favourite one.

 

Career line of .249/.340/.442, and playing the majority of his career in Safeco and Shea hurts that line. I think he's a guy that could put up a .260/.350/.475 line with the Cubs, that's a lot of strikeouts but 25 home runs and 70 walks. Furthermore, he's a good baserunner (which is useful if you bat him down the order where he belongs) and he plays Gold Glove defence.

 

Camerson's slated to earn $6m in 2006, which is very fair relative to his performance, and there's a $7m club option vs $0.5m buyout for 2007. So if Pie is ready for Opening Day 2007, then you can buy him out. If Pie's not ready, you've got an option, though I'm not sure whether I'd be willing to gamble on Cameron, who's getting older, two years in a row. It depends what else is out there. With there nothing out there this year, that's why Cameron's so appealing.

 

Why might the Mets trade him? Well, he's had more than his fair share of injuries, he's potentially a free agent after next year and they might want to get a return for him, they probably underrated him because the Mets are somewhat stupid, and they might want to open up a spot in RF for Victor Diaz next year and Lastings Milledge long-term.

 

I bet they'd accept pitching for Cameron, because they're pretty dire in that department right now. And we have a lot of pitching to deal. Handy. Rich Hill for Mike Cameron, see if they bite.

 

Murton (LF), *Walker (2B), Lee (1B), Rammy (3B), *Giles (RF), Nomar (SS), Cameron (CF), Barrett ©, Pitcher.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Cameron makes a lot of sense, and I'm not sure if it would even cost Rich Hill. But let's assume the Cubs can make a trade for Cameron to play CF.

 

Next, the Cubs could trade Patterson and Nolasco to the D'backs for Quentin.

 

Sign Furcal to play SS...and here's my 2006 Chicago Cubs.

 

Furcal SS

Walker 2B

Lee 1B

Ramirez 3B

Barrett C

Cameron CF

Quentin RF

Murton LF

 

I don't think that's a bad line-up. It's not an awe-inspiring group, but I think it could score some runs.

[Backtobanks]

I wasn't a big Randy Winn fan, but he really impressed me in the Giants series. I don't know his contract details and I know the Giants just got him, but he might be a good CF/leadoff man with some speed. When Pie arrives, he could be 4th OF/pinch hitter/trade bait.

[Tim]

I wasn't a big Randy Winn fan, but he really impressed me in the Giants series. I don't know his contract details and I know the Giants just got him, but he might be a good CF/leadoff man with some speed. When Pie arrives, he could be 4th OF/pinch hitter/trade bait.

This, to me, is the danger of scouting. You see a guy when he's at his very best and think that he's a world-beater.

 

In this particular case, I'm not saying that you're wrong. I'm just saying that it is dangerous to ignore the longer track record. Basing things off the three times you've seen a guy is dangerous.

[Tim]

Cameron makes a lot of sense, and I'm not sure if it would even cost Rich Hill. But let's assume the Cubs can make a trade for Cameron to play CF.

 

Next, the Cubs could trade Patterson and Nolasco to the D'backs for Quentin.

 

Sign Furcal to play SS...and here's my 2006 Chicago Cubs.

 

Furcal SS

Walker 2B

Lee 1B

Ramirez 3B

Barrett C

Cameron CF

Quentin RF

Murton LF

 

I don't think that's a bad line-up. It's not an awe-inspiring group, but I think it could score some runs.

I like your thinking, but I don't think Corey + Ricky comes close to getting Quentin. Despite Nolasco's solid numbers throughout his minor league career, he's not thought of as an A prospect. (Here's the danger of just looking at the numbers. ;) )

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Cameron makes a lot of sense, and I'm not sure if it would even cost Rich Hill. But let's assume the Cubs can make a trade for Cameron to play CF.

 

Next, the Cubs could trade Patterson and Nolasco to the D'backs for Quentin.

 

Sign Furcal to play SS...and here's my 2006 Chicago Cubs.

 

Furcal SS

Walker 2B

Lee 1B

Ramirez 3B

Barrett C

Cameron CF

Quentin RF

Murton LF

 

I don't think that's a bad line-up. It's not an awe-inspiring group, but I think it could score some runs.

I like your thinking, but I don't think Corey + Ricky comes close to getting Quentin. Despite Nolasco's solid numbers throughout his minor league career, he's not thought of as an A prospect. (Here's the danger of just looking at the numbers. ;) )

 

Would Nolasco be enough to get Cameron and then replace Nolasco with Hill in the deal to Dbacks?

[Tim]

Cameron makes a lot of sense, and I'm not sure if it would even cost Rich Hill. But let's assume the Cubs can make a trade for Cameron to play CF.

 

Next, the Cubs could trade Patterson and Nolasco to the D'backs for Quentin.

 

Sign Furcal to play SS...and here's my 2006 Chicago Cubs.

 

Furcal SS

Walker 2B

Lee 1B

Ramirez 3B

Barrett C

Cameron CF

Quentin RF

Murton LF

 

I don't think that's a bad line-up. It's not an awe-inspiring group, but I think it could score some runs.

I like your thinking, but I don't think Corey + Ricky comes close to getting Quentin. Despite Nolasco's solid numbers throughout his minor league career, he's not thought of as an A prospect. (Here's the danger of just looking at the numbers. ;) )

 

Would Nolasco be enough to get Cameron and then replace Nolasco with Hill in the deal to Dbacks?

I think you're going to have to send someone at Williams' level in at least one of those two deals.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Cameron makes a lot of sense, and I'm not sure if it would even cost Rich Hill. But let's assume the Cubs can make a trade for Cameron to play CF.

 

Next, the Cubs could trade Patterson and Nolasco to the D'backs for Quentin.

 

Sign Furcal to play SS...and here's my 2006 Chicago Cubs.

 

Furcal SS

Walker 2B

Lee 1B

Ramirez 3B

Barrett C

Cameron CF

Quentin RF

Murton LF

 

I don't think that's a bad line-up. It's not an awe-inspiring group, but I think it could score some runs.

I like your thinking, but I don't think Corey + Ricky comes close to getting Quentin. Despite Nolasco's solid numbers throughout his minor league career, he's not thought of as an A prospect. (Here's the danger of just looking at the numbers. ;) )

 

Would Nolasco be enough to get Cameron and then replace Nolasco with Hill in the deal to Dbacks?

I think you're going to have to send someone at Williams' level in at least one of those two deals.

 

I could go that route. Then sign Millwood as 5th starter. We'd be set.

[imb]

Hasnt Cammy sucked in the OF the last two years?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Hasnt Cammy sucked in the OF the last two years?

 

As a RF, yes. As a CF, no.

[CubfaninCA]

Do the Mets need pitching?? Their team ERA is 3rd in the NL. Seems they need a 1b, c, and 2b. I can't see them giving up an asset like Cameron unless they get a bat back.

[RockTheIvy]

More stuff on Hunter:

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/trading-torii/

[Diffusion]

Do the Mets need pitching?? Their team ERA is 3rd in the NL. Seems they need a 1b, c, and 2b. I can't see them giving up an asset like Cameron unless they get a bat back.

 

Yes they need pitching. Shea Stadium can superficially disguise things, but Tom Glavine turns 40 and Steve Trachsel 35 next year, and both I feel are only just hanging onto respectability, like Mike Remlinger did for a while. Victor Zambrano and Kris Benson are league average innings eaters at best, Kaz Ishii has made his last start as a Met, which is a blessing.

 

Really all the Mets have to rely on Pedro Martinez, who's obvious still very good but he does have some injury and stamina concerns still, and Jae Seo. Seo's no spring chick, he'll be 29 next year, and throws a high-eighties, low-nineties fastball, a good changeup, a splitter and a cutter. He's a changing speeds guy. I think you're talking about a back of the rotation starter there really, maybe a No 3 at the outside.

 

In the minor leagues the Mets have a couple of interesting pitching prospects. Yusmeiro Petit, Brian Bannister, Gaby Hernandez (but still quite a way away), Philip Humber (but he's had TJS, out for all of 2006), Alay Soler (but he's old and hasn't pitched against real hitters in ages, didn't even do that well against Cuban ones) and Mike Pelfrey (dunno if he signed) all are decent starting prospects, but none of them look like aces. I very much doubt the Mets would be against adding a good starting prospect, and, who knows, they maybe see Rich Hill as one (personally, I don't, but the Mets have been known to disagree with me).

 

It's the bullpen where the Mets have the greatest needs though. It says it all that they've been giving chances to Danny Graves and Shingo Takatsu this year. Braden Looper belongs in the same company, he's done as a reliever, yet alone as a closer. After that there are a number of interesting arms (Heilman, Bell, Ring, McGinley, Yates in particular, and I like Heilman) but nothing that's at all reliable. The Mets have resorted to trying Victor Zambrano as closer. He's not reliable either, just wild, not very good and not worth Scott Kazmir. Roberto Hernandez has had a nice year but he's 56 years old.

 

All the Mets boards are clogged with people suggesting "trade Cameron for bullpen help".

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It's the bullpen where the Mets have the greatest needs though. It says it all that they've been giving chances to Danny Graves and Shingo Takatsu this year. Braden Looper belongs in the same company, he's done as a reliever, yet alone as a closer. After that there are a number of interesting arms (Heilman, Bell, Ring, McGinley, Yates in particular, and I like Heilman) but nothing that's at all reliable. The Mets have resorted to trying Victor Zambrano as closer. He's not reliable either, just wild, not very good and not worth Scott Kazmir. Roberto Hernandez has had a nice year but he's 56 years old.

 

All the Mets boards are clogged with people suggesting "trade Cameron for bullpen help".

 

Is Looper hurt, or did he lose velocity? He's had a rough month, but 6 bad innings doesn't change the fact that he's been at least decent for the rest of '05.

[Magnetic Curses]

There's more to baseball than obp. The Cubs need someone who can do something in cf, and they need to upgrade their defense. Hairston's a utility man and Patterson's ops is around .600 and he may never turn it around in Chicago. Yes Hunter's overpaid, but he'd be a nice stop gap in cf and a nice 6 hitter. A team doesn't need obp monsters @ every spot in the order. Unless you have the budget of the Yankees or Red Sox it's unrealistic.

 

If it's Walker & CPatt for Hunter, so be it. Put Cedeno @ 2b. Nomar in rf, Murton in lf, and sign Furcal. People should be happy that the kids get a chance.

 

Speaking of unrealisitic, it's 1 in 100 that Giles comes to Chicago. See Carlos Beltran for more. I hope Giles signs really early to ease the agony.

 

i don't think you should add high priced players with low-obp's to correct the team obp problem. it doesn't make sense. we could have burnitz, who already puts up numbers close to hunter's. stick burnitz in center and spend the money elsewhere, which would probably make up for the difference in defense.

 

we don't need obp monsters at every position, but hey, where are the other "monsters", i see lee with an obp over .400 and two guys over .350, one of which might not even be back next year if we trade him for hunter. we don't have much obp, which is what we need to address this offseason, hunter gives us nothing that we don't already have.

 

LOL @ Burnitz in cf. How many games will it take before Zambrano strangles him for his inadequacy. Cf's an important defensive position.

 

the problem with this team isn't defense. the "burnitz in cf" was facetious, next time i'll denote it. i was simply pointing out that this team would be better off with even burnitz in CF and spending the money somewhere else. hell, we could put barrett in center and have a better shot.

 

hunter and his lack of obp can stay put in minny.

[craig]

Some Cub pitching prospect (with Corey's contract thrown in) for Quentin is not going to happen.

 

I'm blah on Cameron. He's having a career year to be hitting .273 this year, but that's partly lucky. (His BABIP is way higher than normal.) Put his BABIP at normal and you have what I'd project for next year; a guy who'll hit somewhere around .250. A .250-hitting CF who takes a walk, hits a few HR's, and plays good defense would be better than what we got from Corey this year, for sure. And probably better than we should expect from Hairston for next year. But trying to sell the budget and sell the farm to get .250-hitters doesn't thrill me too much.

 

Hypocritically, since Hunter is somewhat similar, with an extra 20 points in batting average but fewer walks, I would have some interest in Hunter. If Twins eat some salary, and perhaps throw in a prospect or something to level things, I'd be willing to consider taking on $7 or so in salary to have Hunter. For example, if they took Corey's salary, threw in $2, and threw in somebody who'd be maybe their #20 prospect (not great but might turn out...), I'd be interested. Hunter's not great. But he's better than average, he's better than Hairston, and he's more reliable to be better than the bad-Corey. Hunter's defense really is exceptional. It's possible that the Corey we saw in 03-04 might post a .770-OPS that's as good or perhaps better than Hunter might give. So we could perhaps make a trade, take on a $7 million of costs (plus obligation to 2007 buyout or contract), and have Corey play as well in 2006 as Hunter does. But I personally think that the security of having a .270-type hitter with a .330-type OBP and a .770-type OPS, combined with great defense and a really likable personality, would be worth some millions in cost. Corey might be fine, Pie might come along and be as good as Hunter by August, Hairston might be just fine, Cameron might come through and hit .260... but I'd pay some money for insurance against a big disaster, comparable to the disaster that Corey-05 has been, and that could happen again next year is you count on Corey or Pie, or a guy like Cameron who might hit .220.

[CubfaninCA]

Just get Lofton. Not too expensive, can leadoff, is an apple in Dusty's eye, and holds down the fort til Pie's ready.

[JeffH]

Lofton would be fine, but I'd still want Furcal to lead off.

[Diffusion]

I'm blah on Cameron. He's having a career year to be hitting .273 this year, but that's partly lucky. (His BABIP is way higher than normal.) Put his BABIP at normal and you have what I'd project for next year; a guy who'll hit somewhere around .250. A .250-hitting CF who takes a walk, hits a few HR's, and plays good defense would be better than what we got from Corey this year, for sure. And probably better than we should expect from Hairston for next year. But trying to sell the budget and sell the farm to get .250-hitters doesn't thrill me too much.

 

Something you've got to consider is that Cameron has spent his entire career in pretty rubbish ballparks to hit in. At the time that Cameron was in New Comiskey Park (1995-98 ) the Baseball Reference park factors were 97, 95, 96 and 98, Cinergy Field was 99 in 1999, and Safeco Field from 2000-03 was 91, 93, 92 and 97. Shea Stadium in 2004 was 99, and I doubt it's much different this year. So, weighting those park factors, assuming plate appearances are split evenly year-on-year between home/road and saying that road park factors are 100 (which is a pretty big assumption, because a lot of the ballpark in the AL West and NL East are pretty pitching friendly), Cameron for his entire year prior to this year had effectively spent his every day hitting in a ballpark with a park factor of 97.8, and that could be an estimate on the high side. That's got to have had a negative effect on his numbers, meaning that his natural level perhaps isn't done justice by his .250/.340/.440 line, and that he's actually been more valuable than that.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'd explore a trade for Bradley before Cameron, although I wouldn't be displeased with either.

[goonys evil twin]

I'm blah on Cameron. He's having a career year to be hitting .273 this year, but that's partly lucky. (His BABIP is way higher than normal.) Put his BABIP at normal and you have what I'd project for next year; a guy who'll hit somewhere around .250. A .250-hitting CF who takes a walk, hits a few HR's, and plays good defense would be better than what we got from Corey this year, for sure. And probably better than we should expect from Hairston for next year. But trying to sell the budget and sell the farm to get .250-hitters doesn't thrill me too much.

 

Something you've got to consider is that Cameron has spent his entire career in pretty rubbish ballparks to hit in. At the time that Cameron was in New Comiskey Park (1995-98 ) the Baseball Reference park factors were 97, 95, 96 and 98, Cinergy Field was 99 in 1999, and Safeco Field from 2000-03 was 91, 93, 92 and 97. Shea Stadium in 2004 was 99, and I doubt it's much different this year. So, weighting those park factors, assuming plate appearances are split evenly year-on-year between home/road and saying that road park factors are 100 (which is a pretty big assumption, because a lot of the ballpark in the AL West and NL East are pretty pitching friendly), Cameron for his entire year prior to this year had effectively spent his every day hitting in a ballpark with a park factor of 97.8, and that could be an estimate on the high side. That's got to have had a negative effect on his numbers, meaning that his natural level perhaps isn't done justice by his .250/.340/.440 line, and that he's actually been more valuable than that.

 

I kind of buy that theory, but the other thing to consider is he's going to be 33 next season, and he's coming off a crazy head injury. It's the type of thing that could cause vision issues and other things that could affect his game in 2006. I would take Cameron as a temp replacement for CF, but the Mets would have to more or less give him away for salary reasons. And I would have very little hope of him outperforming his career numbers: .249/.340/.442