Torrii Hunter anyone?

[Diffusion]

I'm blah on Cameron. He's having a career year to be hitting .273 this year, but that's partly lucky. (His BABIP is way higher than normal.) Put his BABIP at normal and you have what I'd project for next year; a guy who'll hit somewhere around .250. A .250-hitting CF who takes a walk, hits a few HR's, and plays good defense would be better than what we got from Corey this year, for sure. And probably better than we should expect from Hairston for next year. But trying to sell the budget and sell the farm to get .250-hitters doesn't thrill me too much.

 

Something you've got to consider is that Cameron has spent his entire career in pretty rubbish ballparks to hit in. At the time that Cameron was in New Comiskey Park (1995-98 ) the Baseball Reference park factors were 97, 95, 96 and 98, Cinergy Field was 99 in 1999, and Safeco Field from 2000-03 was 91, 93, 92 and 97. Shea Stadium in 2004 was 99, and I doubt it's much different this year. So, weighting those park factors, assuming plate appearances are split evenly year-on-year between home/road and saying that road park factors are 100 (which is a pretty big assumption, because a lot of the ballpark in the AL West and NL East are pretty pitching friendly), Cameron for his entire year prior to this year had effectively spent his every day hitting in a ballpark with a park factor of 97.8, and that could be an estimate on the high side. That's got to have had a negative effect on his numbers, meaning that his natural level perhaps isn't done justice by his .250/.340/.440 line, and that he's actually been more valuable than that.

 

I kind of buy that theory, but the other thing to consider is he's going to be 33 next season, and he's coming off a crazy head injury. It's the type of thing that could cause vision issues and other things that could affect his game in 2006.

 

I remember Johnny Damon suffered a terrible collision with his head in the 2003 post-season, and he responded by hitting .304/.380/.477 in 2004, his best ever year. So maybe all he needed was a wakeup call!

 

But, yes, the injury is a concern. I suppose though you can look at it as a real case of buy low at least. It's entirely possible the Mets could end up giving him away because of what's happened, because of the same reservations you hold, they'll see a chance to get a bullpen arm, shed $6.5m in salary commitments and open up a spot for Victor Diaz short-term and Lastings Milledge long-term.

 

Even if things turn sour, the Cubs will end up just $6.5m and what they dealt to NY out of pocket, which isn't a collosal amount. And there's a possibility of compensatory draft picks too. I think it's a risk worth taking given the poverty of the other options out there - Lofton, Cruz Jr, Williams, an expensive trade for Hunter, Corey, Hairston, it's grim.