Which Free Agents Do We Have Shot At?

[nilodnayr]

#2-If history is any indication, and Baker is still here, our bench will likely be about the same. I think you can bank on Hairston, Perez and Blanco being back with the team. Worse, Hendry has a very poor track record when it comes to evaluating backup players and then offering them much more money than they are worth.

 

You really think Hairston will be back? The current braintrust doesn't seem to like him too much. I'd guess he's gone, regardless of what I'd do.

 

Outside of that, I agree with everything you said and hope the Cubs management does as well.

 

He's under contract for 2006, so unless we deal him, he's ours.

 

Hairston was a super-two, so I believe he's a free agent. I'm not positive how that works though.

 

I don't know either, but I do expect Hairston to be traded if he isn't gone by his own choice via free agency.

 

A super two doesnt enable you to enter free agency sooner, it only allows you to get an extra year of arbi, hes ours. Hairston isnt the problem, Dusty is.

[marc_foust]

Couple quick observations:

 

#1-Hendry might need to bank some of the freed up money in case Aramis decides to opt out of his contract after 2006. He also might not need to, since Maddux's $9m would come off in 2006. But it's still something to consider.

 

#2-If history is any indication, and Baker is still here, our bench will likely be about the same. I think you can bank on Hairston, Perez and Blanco being back with the team. Worse, Hendry has a very poor track record when it comes to evaluating backup players and then offering them much more money than they are worth.

 

#3-I would not hold my breath on being able to sign Damon, Burnett or Giles. Those are the 3 marquee names out there, and I would be shocked if the Cubs came in competitive on any of them. Millwood is more likely, but I can see the Yankees going after Milwood harder than Burnett, depending on if Cashman or Steinbrenner is calling the shots.

 

#4-I doubt the Cubs will go after BJ Ryan. I can see them chasing after Billy Wagner, but I doubt they will pony up the years or cash to sign him.

 

Keep in mind that the Cubs have not signed a major FA since Greg Maddux (and the wise-ness of that decision is debatable), and before him it was Moises Alou. The Cubs do spend money on their own players, but rarely do you see them getting in bidding wars.

 

Personally, I would wave goodbye to Perez, Lawton, Hollandsworth, Rusch and Burnitz. Lawton is a bad player. He's an absolute butcher in the field, and has taken 1 walk since he was aquired.

 

I would only resign Garciaparra if it was at a rate around 60% of 2005 guaranteed money, and cram the deal full of incentives. I would exercise the option on Walker, only because there's not much better out there. I would sign Giles to play RF, stick Murton in LF and bat him 2nd, have Walker lead off, and let Corey start off the year in CF, and call up Pie in June if ready.

 

I would sign Millwood, and attempt to trade Williams and Hill for Adam Dunn. If they don't bite, Williams takes Rusch's role as swing in the pen, and Hill waits for the inevitable injury to someone on our staff in AAA.

 

Zambrano

Prior

Millwood

Wood (Williams til ready)

Maddux

 

I would attempt to sign BJ Ryan, and if that didn't work, I'd build my pen like so:

 

Williams

Williamson

Ohman

Aardsma

Novoa

Van Buren (SU)

Dempster (CL)

 

I would let Dempster walk if we aquire Ryan, but I think that's a cheap, young bullpen with ability. Spending money on a bullpen can be a colossal waste of money, since relievers are so up and down anyways.

 

You have a lineup of:

 

Walker

Murton

Ramirez

Giles

Lee

Garciaparra

Walker

Barrett

Patterson.

 

I accept that you need a LH bat on the bench, and a 4th OF. I'd like Mark Sweeney as the LH bat. I'd have Cedeno back up SS, Hairston back up CF and 2B, and Blanco back up C. That leaves one spot open for either the token veteran stiff, or a young player like Greenberg.

 

I think that team fits the budget, is a bit improved as far as OPB goes, and more consistent pitching-wise. It also has room for improvement as the year goes on. You can ditch CPatt and bring up Pie, or trade for a CF. If Walker gets hurt, you have room to deal for Soriano at 2B. If Murton stinks as an everyday LF, you can deal for a corner OF.

 

 

You have Walker leading off and batting 7th.

 

I definantly agree with your points though. That is the reason I made this thread. I dont see the Cubs jumping into the FA market unless they can pick someone up cheap, like burnitz this year.

 

I would like to see Giles signed, but only for 3/27. We do need to add another starter, but I dont think that we will aquire one through FA. I would like to see the cubs activly pursue a trade for a big bat for left even if we sign Giles, because I dont see Murton doing anything but hitting for average numbers in left. I wouldnt mind seeing a package deal that could bring the cubs a #4 starter and a corner OF. We have plenty of bp arms that can be used to deal and we should be able to find some takers. Something like 3 of the following: rusch, mitre, wuertz, novoa, aardsma, welly, koronka and either holla or hairston.

 

If we add a bat or two to the lineup and a starter I think we can contend. If we bring in a real managerial staff that will help the most but I think that may be asking too much.

[Exile on Waveland]

#2-If history is any indication, and Baker is still here, our bench will likely be about the same. I think you can bank on Hairston, Perez and Blanco being back with the team. Worse, Hendry has a very poor track record when it comes to evaluating backup players and then offering them much more money than they are worth.

 

You really think Hairston will be back? The current braintrust doesn't seem to like him too much. I'd guess he's gone, regardless of what I'd do.

 

Outside of that, I agree with everything you said and hope the Cubs management does as well.

 

He's under contract for 2006, so unless we deal him, he's ours.

 

Hairston was a super-two, so I believe he's a free agent. I'm not positive how that works though.

 

I don't know either, but I do expect Hairston to be traded if he isn't gone by his own choice via free agency.

 

A super two doesnt enable you to enter free agency sooner, it only allows you to get an extra year of arbi, hes ours. Hairston isnt the problem, Dusty is.

 

You're preaching to the choir, here. However, Dusty seems to get his way more often than not.

[NewUserName]

Resign Dempster and go young. I would rather go 70-92 with a youth movement than go 83-79 if we are lucky with someone elses overpaid past prime talent. Take a year to see who can play and who cant then fill in the gaps next offseason with moderate FA, While we get a core group of players committed to long term contracts. This is basically what the Yankees did in the mid 90s in it worked out pretty good for them. Or we could go after Frucal and Giles who will be overpaid and struggle around 500. Remember if you want to win by outspending you have to outspend the Yankees and the Red Sox Good Luck!!

[rsmoler]

Baker is not going anywhere next year and so it would be silly for Hendry to hope the young kids are going to get playing time unless there's injuries. Hendry has to face reality that Dusty likes the veterans and so he needs to build a team with a strong veteran bench and veteran starters that addresses Dusty's preferences. If he really wants the young guys to play, he needs a different manager, which isn't going to happen until 2007 at the earliest.

 

My guess is that Hendry is counting on Wood and Maddux returning to the rotation next year and he's probably pretty comfortable with a rotation of

 

Prior

Zambrano

Wood

Maddux

Hill/Mitre/Guzman/Rusch/Williams (take your pick)

 

I also think that Hendry believes that whoever loses that fifth starters position will provide plenty of insurance against one of the starters going on the DL. The net/net is I don't see Hendry going after a starter.

 

I do see Hendry shoring up the bullpen and I think he will go after Ryan, Wagner or someone else he thinks will be lights out in the 8th or 9th. I think he recognizes the value of having the 8th and 9th innings covered. I also think that he is satisfied with Dempster being one of those guys, but doesn't think he's got the other guy in house. There is an outside chance the team decides Wood needs to spend a year in the pen (ala John Smoltz) to protect his arm. If that happens, the money that would have gone into Ryan or Wagner will go into chasing Burnett, Millwood or another quality starter. I would certainly expect Wuertz, Ohman and Novoa to be in the pen next year with Rusch as the long man. The last spot is up for grabs.

 

I think Hendry wants to salt away the lead off role which has been a major problem. I don't believe that Hendry is sold on Lawton and I don't expect him to be resigned. My guess is Hendry works hard to get Nomar signed to an incentive laden deal like last year with a lower base. If he gets it done, then I would look for Hendry to go after Damon hard provided the rumors about his steroid use are unfounded. If Damon is signed, Patterson is gone. If Hendry can't get Damon, I think he'll go hard after Furcal and Corey will stick around until Hendry is sure Pie is ready. As for the corners, I think Hendry still covets Kearns and Dunn and will try to pry one of them free. It may be expensive in the form of young talent, but I think he'll do it. I'll be interested to see if he makes Pie, Hill, Marshall or Guzman available (I don't think so), but I wouldn't be surprised if one or more of Williams, Mitre, Nolasco, Ryu, Wellemeyer, Pinto, Murton, Patterson, Dopirak, Sing, Harvey, etc are all made available as part of a package. As for the other corner, my guess is Burnitz is retained for one more year and then sent on his way in 2007 when Murton or Pie is ready. I also look for Walker to be retained because he's a bargain.

 

The line-up is thus:

 

Damon/Furcal

Walker

Lee

Burnitz

Ramirez

Dunn/Kearns

Garciaparra/Barrett

Barrett/Patterson

 

(Garciaparra might flip with Walker if he's healthy)

 

As for the bench, Perez and Blanco are shoo ins. I wouldn't be surprised if Hollansworth, Hairston and Macias are all back, but I'd hope Hendry could at least get someone with some power that could replace Macias and rest Ramirez and Lee periodically. Ramirez and Lee are getting burned out. Corey Koskie, Rob Mackowiak or Russell Branyon maybe?

[rsmoler]

Baker is not going anywhere next year and so it would be silly for Hendry to hope the young kids are going to get playing time unless there's injuries. Hendry has to face reality that Dusty likes the veterans and so he needs to build a team with a strong veteran bench and veteran starters that addresses Dusty's preferences. If he really wants the young guys to play, he needs a different manager, which isn't going to happen until 2007 at the earliest.

 

My guess is that Hendry is counting on Wood and Maddux returning to the rotation next year and he's probably pretty comfortable with a rotation of

 

Prior

Zambrano

Wood

Maddux

Hill/Mitre/Guzman/Rusch/Williams (take your pick)

 

I also think that Hendry believes that whoever loses that fifth starters position will provide plenty of insurance against one of the starters going on the DL. The net/net is I don't see Hendry going after a starter.

 

I do see Hendry shoring up the bullpen and I think he will go after Ryan, Wagner or someone else he thinks will be lights out in the 8th or 9th. I think he recognizes the value of having the 8th and 9th innings covered. I also think that he is satisfied with Dempster being one of those guys, but doesn't think he's got the other guy in house. There is an outside chance the team decides Wood needs to spend a year in the pen (ala John Smoltz) to protect his arm. If that happens, the money that would have gone into Ryan or Wagner will go into chasing Burnett, Millwood or another quality starter. I would certainly expect Wuertz, Ohman and Novoa to be in the pen next year with Rusch as the long man. The last spot is up for grabs.

 

I think Hendry wants to salt away the lead off role which has been a major problem. I don't believe that Hendry is sold on Lawton and I don't expect him to be resigned. My guess is Hendry works hard to get Nomar signed to an incentive laden deal like last year with a lower base. If he gets it done, then I would look for Hendry to go after Damon hard provided the rumors about his steroid use are unfounded. If Damon is signed, Patterson is gone. If Hendry can't get Damon, I think he'll go hard after Furcal and Corey will stick around until Hendry is sure Pie is ready. As for the corners, I think Hendry still covets Kearns and Dunn and will try to pry one of them free. It may be expensive in the form of young talent, but I think he'll do it. I'll be interested to see if he makes Pie, Hill, Marshall or Guzman available (I don't think so), but I wouldn't be surprised if one or more of Williams, Mitre, Nolasco, Ryu, Wellemeyer, Pinto, Murton, Patterson, Dopirak, Sing, Harvey, etc are all made available as part of a package. As for the other corner, my guess is Burnitz is retained for one more year and then sent on his way in 2007 when Murton or Pie is ready. I also look for Walker to be retained because he's a bargain.

 

The line-up is thus:

 

Damon/Furcal

Walker

Lee

Burnitz

Ramirez

Dunn/Kearns

Garciaparra/Barrett

Barrett/Patterson

 

(Garciaparra might flip with Walker if he's healthy)

 

As for the bench, Perez and Blanco are shoo ins. I wouldn't be surprised if Hollansworth, Hairston and Macias are all back, but I'd hope Hendry could at least get someone with some power that could replace Macias and rest Ramirez and Lee periodically. Ramirez and Lee are getting burned out. Corey Koskie, Rob Mackowiak or Russell Branyon maybe?

[Mark_R]

Coskie signed a 3/17 deal last offseason with the BJays. No way will he be coming here for next season.

[nilodnayr]

Baker is not going anywhere next year and so it would be silly for Hendry to hope the young kids are going to get playing time unless there's injuries. Hendry has to face reality that Dusty likes the veterans and so he needs to build a team with a strong veteran bench and veteran starters that addresses Dusty's preferences. If he really wants the young guys to play, he needs a different manager, which isn't going to happen until 2007 at the earliest.

 

First off I wouldnt be 100% sure Dusty will be here next year. Secondly, I would argue exactly the opposite of your point. Hendry needs to load the roster with young kids so Dusty HAS to play them. No Macias, No Neifi, No Holla, YES Fontenot, YES Cedeno, YES Murton. Ohh and if Burnitz is kept and Lawton is not I swear, I might take off my bracelet.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

It is essential the Cubs fix their OF problem, so IMO, they must sign both Giles and Damon.

 

It is essential the Cubs fix their bullpen problem, so IMO, they must sign BJ Ryan.

 

It is essential the Cubs fix their starting pitching hole, since either Wood (most likely) or Prior will get hurt, so IMO, they must sign or trade for one more starting pitcher.

 

It is essential the Cubs fix their dugout problem, so IMO, they fire the entire coaching staff.

 

I do not bring back any of the Cubs' free agents to be, except for Dempster and Walker. I get rid of Patterson once and for all. I let Murton and Pie compete for a starting OF gig. Cedeno is my SS. Damon is my leadoff man.

 

1-Damon, CF (or LF if Pie)

2-Murton, LF (or Pie, CF)

3-Giles, RF

4-Lee, 1B

5-Ramirez, 3B

6-Barrett, C

7-Walker, 2B

8-Cedeno, SS

 

Someone tell me what the heck is wrong with that lineup? I'd go to battle with that. For the bench, only Blanco is under contract. I might bring back Neifi, but only if the new manager promises not to play him over Cedeno. AAA's Fontenot is a fine replacement for Gremlin. I give Ben Grieve what was supposed to be Todd Hollandsworth's old job (LH pinch hitter off the bench). If Pie is a starter, Murton completes my bench; if Murton wins the job, I put Pie at AAA so he can play everyday and let Dave Kelton or some veteran FA complete my bench.

 

I am hoping that one of David Aardsma, Jermaine Van Buren and/or Bobby Brownlie are ready to step up and help the Cubs in the bullpen. I see nothing that indicates promise from Leicester, Wellemeyer or Wuertz, I'd gladly move all three. I do think Rusch exercises his option and decides to stay.

 

SP--Zambrano, Prior, Maddux, TBD FA/trade, Williams/Guzman

RP--Rusch, Novoa, Ohman, Aardsma/JVB/Brownlie, Dempster, Ryan

 

If Wood bounces on and off the DL as is likely, I put him in the pen and dump Ohman.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It is essential the Cubs fix their OF problem, so IMO, they must sign both Giles and Damon.

 

It is essential the Cubs fix their bullpen problem, so IMO, they must sign BJ Ryan.

 

It is essential the Cubs fix their starting pitching hole, since either Wood (most likely) or Prior will get hurt, so IMO, they must sign or trade for one more starting pitcher.

 

It is essential the Cubs fix their dugout problem, so IMO, they fire the entire coaching staff.

 

I do not bring back any of the Cubs' free agents to be, except for Dempster and Walker. I get rid of Patterson once and for all. I let Murton and Pie compete for a starting OF gig. Cedeno is my SS. Damon is my leadoff man.

 

1-Damon, CF (or LF if Pie)

2-Murton, LF (or Pie, CF)

3-Giles, RF

4-Lee, 1B

5-Ramirez, 3B

6-Barrett, C

7-Walker, 2B

8-Cedeno, SS

 

Someone tell me what the heck is wrong with that lineup? I'd go to battle with that. For the bench, only Blanco is under contract. I might bring back Neifi, but only if the new manager promises not to play him over Cedeno. AAA's Fontenot is a fine replacement for Gremlin. I give Ben Grieve what was supposed to be Todd Hollandsworth's old job (LH pinch hitter off the bench). If Pie is a starter, Murton completes my bench; if Murton wins the job, I put Pie at AAA so he can play everyday and let Dave Kelton or some veteran FA complete my bench.

 

I am hoping that one of David Aardsma, Jermaine Van Buren and/or Bobby Brownlie are ready to step up and help the Cubs in the bullpen. I see nothing that indicates promise from Leicester, Wellemeyer or Wuertz, I'd gladly move all three. I do think Rusch exercises his option and decides to stay.

 

SP--Zambrano, Prior, Maddux, TBD FA/trade, Williams/Guzman

RP--Rusch, Novoa, Ohman, Aardsma/JVB/Brownlie, Dempster, Ryan

 

If Wood bounces on and off the DL as is likely, I put him in the pen and dump Ohman.

 

I don't think it's feasible to be able to sign all 3 of Damon, Giles, and Ryan.

 

Pie needs time at AAA, I wouldn't even consider him an option for the big league club until the ASB at the least(although you did list Murton as an alternative).

 

Damon won't be worth the contract that he'll command. His splits away from Fenway are Lawton-esque, he's 31 years old, and he wants 4/40.

 

Who do you have in mind to acquire as a SP? and if you plan on getting all 3 big FA's, how are you going to afford to acquire a quality SP?

[biittner77]

Bring back:

Walker- as he's a bargain at the team option

Patterson- as a bridge to Pie.

Dempster- he'll likely be an effective closer for half the price of Ryan or Wagner

Williamson- $2 million is a fair price for a reliable set up

Nomar- worth an incentive laid deal

 

Get rid of:

Baker and his entire staff

Burnitz- even if he'd play for free. He's through as an every day player

Macias- need I explain?

Perez- see Macias

Rusch- the magic is gone

Hairston- wouldn't mind keeping him though

 

Sign:

Giles- could really backfire but he could be a nice bridge to Harvey.

 

Lineup:

 

LF Murton- he's what the Cubs wish Patterson was

2nd Walker

Lee

Giles

Ramirez

Nomar

Patterson- ahead of Barrett to balance the lineup and protect him.

Barrett

 

Rotation:

Prior, Zambrano,Wood, Maddux, Williams/Hill

 

(If Maddux retires use that money toward signing Burnett)

 

Cl: Dempster

RH: Williamson, Wuertz, and Novoa /Wellemeyer/ JVB/ Brownlie

LH: Ohman, and Bartosh/Hill/FA signee

 

Bench:

Blanco- whether we like it or not

Cedeno- gets a decent amount of time backing up Walker and Nomar

Fontenot- Replaces Macias

Greenberg/Bacon- provides speed plus alternative to Patterson

LH veteran bat

RH veteran bat

[cubweiser03]

Is Julio Franco veteran enough for Dusty? No seriously, he would be great for a pinch hitter and its not like Dusty will play him over Lee. $1M is what he is getting this year. He wont get as much PT as he would in Atlanta but you never know.

[CuseCubFan69]

I'd like to see Hendry get rid of some of this young surplus pitching and get an impact player. The Cubs are going to lose a couple in the rule 5 draft so they might as well move some A+ prospects and the marginal rule 5 guys.

[vaball]

It is essential the Cubs fix their OF problem, so IMO, they must sign both Giles and Damon.

 

There is just no way that will happen. Too many other teams need outfielders.