Win the next two, and we still have a shot...

[nilodnayr]

...lose the next two we might as well shut down Wood and start playing the young guys. 9 1/2 games out with 6 teams ahead of us would be too hard of a climb.

 

Tonight and tomorrow are MUST win games.

 

Ken

 

I think we will win tomorrow. I was worried about tonight but Maddux really looked good. I expect Carlos to dominate tomorrow and they'll get three or four runs off Roy. Ryan in the 9th still scares the hell out of me even though the save record is good.

 

I'll also pull for Philadelphia to take 2 of the next 3.

 

I'm rooting for Washington to sweep. Philly scares me more than Washington. Washington hasn't been good since the All Star break. They played way over their heads early in the year. Hopefully, they play over their head's tomorrow and sweep the doubleheader.

 

I absolutely agree. Washington is a far inferior team who got insanely lucky in the first half with all the one run wins. If Abreu gets hot again Philly will be really tough.

[CubsHawks25]

Well, 5.5 back going to Colorado, not (real) bad, but wish it was just 3.5 back. [That 12-4 game on Monday is still eating at me! ARGH!!]

 

Thursday;

Washington @ Philly (DH) - GO Wash in both!

SD @ Florida - GO Fathers!

Pittsburgh @ NYM - GO Pirates!

Dodgers @ Atlanta - Go Braves! (just to be safe)

D'backs @ StLouis - Go Cards! (just to be safe)

 

(Thurs-Sun)Milwaukee @ Houston - 4 games (GO Brewers, 3-1 or 4-0!!)

 

Friday-Sunday;

CHC @ Rockies - GO CUBBIES!!!

Pitt @ Phillies - GO PIRATES!

Arizona @ Reds - Go Cincy! (just to be safe)

Nationals @ Mets - Go Washington! [2-1 series win at least]

LAD @ Marlins - GO DODGERS!

SD @ Atlanta - who cares

SF @ StLouis - GO GIANTS!

[CubsHawks25]

Biggest problem right now, besides 5 teams in front for the WC, is the big gap between 1-5 and 5-6. Right now, just 2.5 games separate HOU and the NYM, but you jump from 2.5 back for the #5 NYM to 5.5 back for 6th place Cubs.

 

We need some losing streaks to run through the other 5 teams while we win series/go on a tear.

 

#s1 A&B HOU and PHI are 8 over with 42 left.

#3 WASH is 7 over with 43 left.

#4 FLA is 5 over with 43 left.

#5 NYM is 3 over with 43 left.

---------------------------------------------------

#6 CHC is 3 under with 41 left.

 

 

The odds are definitely not in our favor as within that group, the Cubs have the farthest to climb and the least amount of games to do it in.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I still think it's going to take 90 wins to get the wild card. Even with winning 5 of 7 from the Cardinals and Astros, the Cubs still must go 31-10 over the next 41 to get to 90. I just don't know how likely it is that we can play .750 ball for over a month.

[da bears]

I'm as pessimistic as anyone, but what's the harm in dreaming? The season will TRULY be over soon enough ... I'm holding on to the threads of contention until the math says I can't.

 

I couldnt agree with you more. Im not gonna be stupid enough to put all my hopes and dreams into this team, and I certainly do not expect them to do anything, but I sure as hell am gonna cheer for them until and hold out that little hope until the math says I cant. Am I stupid for that? Probably, but I just cant give up hope, me being a Cubs fan wont let me.

[KatJ]

I took a look at the standings, and realized something very important:

 

We have the SAME record as the Brewers.

 

I took a closer look at the schedule, and realized that not only are we AND the Brewers 5 1/2 out, WE have but one 3-game series left this season against anyone ahead in the WC race (Florida). We had a chance to help ourselves against the Mets during that dreadful week, but NOOOOOO!

 

So, the way I see it is just win and hope for the best. Let the chips fall where they may, I just want to see good baseball from the team for the rest of the season... and hope it isn't too little, too late.

[cbbryan]

I took a look at the standings, and realized something very important:

 

We have the SAME record as the Brewers.

 

I took a closer look at the schedule, and realized that not only are we AND the Brewers 5 1/2 out, WE have but one 3-game series left this season against anyone ahead in the WC race (Florida). We had a chance to help ourselves against the Mets during that dreadful week, but NOOOOOO!

 

So, the way I see it is just win and hope for the best. Let the chips fall where they may, I just want to see good baseball from the team for the rest of the season... and hope it isn't too little, too late.

 

You mean we only have one series in August vs a team ahead of us in the Wild Card? Our remaining schedule is:

 

Aug 19-21 @ Colorado

Aug 22-24 vs Atlanta

Aug 26-28 vs Florida

Aug 29-31 vs Dodgers

Sept 2-4 @ Pirates

Sept 5-7 @ Cards

Sept 8-11 @ SF

Sept 12-14 vs Reds

Sept 15-18 vs Cards

Sept 20-22 @ Brewers

Sept 23-25 vs Astros

Sept 27-28 vs Pirates

Sept 29 - Oct 2 @ Astros

 

The Cubs have alot of games remaining against the Astros (7 games) and the Cards (6 games). The Brewers are tied w/ us and we play them head to head 1 more time in Milwaukee.

 

The way I see it..........the Cubs can't lose to Colorado, Dodgers, Pirates, or the Reds and they may have to win every other series. Then they might have a chance. That would be a 32-9 (Cubs would be 91-71 overall) record to end the season. I don't know if this team can do that though.

 

Cards could literally play .500 ball and still win the division. Cubs have to go on a tear. They may not have to be quite as good as 91 wins to win the WC, but I think it's going to take at least 88..........not much difference, really.

[CubsHawks25]

There's still light and still hope, but we're at the point now, that if we go on anything more than a 2-game losing streak, its over - literally - at that point, no matter the opponent(s) we lost to and games upcoming.

[cbbryan]

There's still light and still hope, but we're at the point now, that if we go on anything more than a 2-game losing streak, its over - literally - at that point, no matter the opponent(s) we lost to and games upcoming.

 

I agree, they can't lose a series and they have to sweep the teams below them..................there's just no other way around it. It's possible, but they have to play great baseball consistantly. While I want to get excited about this team, they haven't shown they can play great consistantly yet. Who knows, they may get hot at the right time, though.

[CubsWin]

30-11 is a tall order, but the Cubs did go 14-4 to start September back in '03. They wound up going 19-7 to clinch it. Unless the Astros and others struggle and can't manage much more than .500 the rest of the way, it is going to take more than 19-7 to get the job done this year.

[CubsHawks25]

Here's what's left for the Cubs this year, 13 series/41 games (3 4-gamers, 9 3-gamers, and a 2-gamer) and here's what I think they'll need to do to have the best shot at winning the WC;

 

8/19-21(3); @ COL -- sweep, 3-0

8/22-24(3); vs ATL -- win series, 2-1

8/26-28(3); vs FLA -- win series, 2-1 but must go for sweep, 3-0

8/29-31(3); vs LAD -- sweep, 3-0

9/2-4(3); @ PITT -- sweep, 3-0

9/5-7(3); @ STL -- maybe could afford to lose series 1-2, but want to win it, 2-1

9/8-11(4); @ SFG -- need series win, 3-1, but must go for sweep, 4-0

9/12-14(3); vs CIN -- sweep, 3-0

9/15-18(4); vs STL -- maybe could afford to go 2-2, but want to win it, 3-1

9/20-22(3); @ MIL -- 2-1 series win or 3-0 sweep

9/23-25(3); vs HOU -- 2-1 series win at least

9/27-28(2); vs PITT -- sweep, 2-0

9/29-10/2(4); @ HOU -- depends on where everyone is at this point, 3-1 at least hopefully win all 4 and the take the Wild Card

 

So, even if they do the worst I outlined, what I see as maybe being "affordable", that would put them at 31-10 (.756 winning %) and 90-72 overall. Next best would be 33-8 (.805 winning %) and 92-70. The very best we could hope for would be 34-7 (.829 winning %) and 93-69. A +.800 winning % is probly too much to ask for, but they need to be between .750 and .800 to give themselves a realistic shot at it.

 

I realize that even the "worst scenario" I have planned out would be miraculous to pull off considering its the Cubs, but if things miraculously came together for them... their remaining schedule is doable - assuming they play everone else, from here on out, like they do/did StL and HOU.

[hawkeyecub]

No one has any idea how many games we're going to have to win. To say we have to win 75-80% is just guesswork. To say we have to do that to have a realistic shot is just wrong in my opinion.

 

I don't think it's going to take 90 wins to get the Wild Card. None of these teams are that good and all of the East teams play each other too many times.

 

I could definitely see 88 wins taking it, but it's impossible to say right now. These teams have all been too streaky and unpredictable and have too many games remaining against each other.

[Fro]

All the NL East teams have brutal schedules, playing each other, the Braves (who we really need to steamroll everyone in their division), and STL/Houston/Us/BrewCrew pretty much exclusively the rest of the way once September starts.

 

Hopefully we can be within a couple games of the Astros by the time we start our stretch of 7 with them in 10 games.

 

First let's get to .500.

[KatJ]

I took a look at the standings, and realized something very important:

 

We have the SAME record as the Brewers.

 

I took a closer look at the schedule, and realized that not only are we AND the Brewers 5 1/2 out, WE have but one 3-game series left this season against anyone ahead in the WC race (Florida). We had a chance to help ourselves against the Mets during that dreadful week, but NOOOOOO!

 

So, the way I see it is just win and hope for the best. Let the chips fall where they may, I just want to see good baseball from the team for the rest of the season... and hope it isn't too little, too late.

 

You mean we only have one series in August vs a team ahead of us in the Wild Card? Our remaining schedule is:

 

Aug 26-28 vs Florida

Sept 23-25 vs Astros

Sept 29 - Oct 2 @ Astros

 

The Cubs have alot of games remaining against the Astros (7 games) and the Cards (6 games). The Brewers are tied w/ us and we play them head to head 1 more time in Milwaukee.

 

How embarrassing. I saw the Houston games, but did not mention them - just flew out of my head. I guess I see the Houston games as something we can control - we need to keep winning outright, but we do have ample opportunities (provided we don't get into another 8 game skid) to make up the deficit with them head-to-head.

 

The East is another matter. We don't have that opportunity, except for once with Florida. Hopefully Atlanta will beat the tar out of the other teams in the East (hopefully the Cubs can get at least one out of Atlanta - boy am I not looking forward to that series), and they can beat up on each other enough to get them all down in the standings.

[SouthSideRyan]

Everyone keeps talking about ~92 wins getting the wildcard and how impossible it looks for us to get the record to get there.

 

That's a 28-14 finish for Philly or Houston. I think people are underestimating how much the wild card teams have plateaued.

[Fred Hornkohl]

Having been at Turner Field last month and watching the CUBS play 4 truly uninspired games and get their butts handed to them.... I feel like they have a score to settle with los bravos. I certainly hope that the CUBS share in this feeling and play with some attitude next week they face Atlanta again.

[Cubfanintheknow]

All the NL East teams have brutal schedules, playing each other, the Braves (who we really need to steamroll everyone in their division), and STL/Houston/Us/BrewCrew pretty much exclusively the rest of the way once September starts.

 

Hopefully we can be within a couple games of the Astros by the time we start our stretch of 7 with them in 10 games.

 

First let's get to .500.

 

That's the problem. When teams ahead of the Cubs play eachother, we're guaranteed of gaining on one team. But the Cubs are also guaranteed of staying the same distance behind the other. Makes it harder to catch. Just have to hope those teams play .500 against eachother for the Cubs to have a realistic chance.

 

Of course, the Cubs have to keep winning, which has proved problematic over the first 120 games of the season.

[JC]

As near as I can tell (and I easily could be wrong), the best the Cubs have faired under Dusty in a 42 game period was last year, Aug. 8 thru Sept. 24, when the Cubs went 26-16, 61-50 to 87-66.

 

Of course, we are still looking for the bottom as it fell out shortly thereafter...

 

EDIT: I used 42 games based on SSR's post, but I should have used 41 games as that is how many the Cubs have remaining. As such, you can take off one loss from the above totals as that streak started with 2 losses. Thus, the Cubs went 26-15 in that 41 game span.

[Catman61]

I could definitely see 88 wins taking it, but it's impossible to say right now. These teams have all been too streaky and unpredictable and have too many games remaining against each other.

 

Both HOU & PHI reach 85 wins by playing .500 the rest of the season, to reach 88 either team would need to go 24-18. (6 games over) The Cubs are 6 out on the loss side and would need to go 29-12 (17 games over) to reach 88 wins.

 

After stumbling out of the blocks a bit in April (10-14) the Phillies have been pretty steady

May 15-13

Jun 15-12

Jul 15-12

Aug 9-5

They may be the team that ekes out the WC.

[Fro]

After stumbling out of the blocks a bit in April (10-14) the Phillies have been pretty steady

May 15-13

Jun 15-12

Jul 15-12

Aug 9-5

They may be the team that ekes out the WC.

 

After August 28th, the Phils' schedule is absolutely brutal. If they tough it out, they'll deserve it.

 

@Mets, @Nationals, Astros, Marlins, Braves (4-games), @Marlins, @Braves, @Reds (okay, this is the one break), Mets, @Nationals

[CubsWin]

All the NL East teams have brutal schedules, playing each other, the Braves (who we really need to steamroll everyone in their division), and STL/Houston/Us/BrewCrew pretty much exclusively the rest of the way once September starts.

 

Hopefully we can be within a couple games of the Astros by the time we start our stretch of 7 with them in 10 games.

 

First let's get to .500.

 

That's the problem. When teams ahead of the Cubs play eachother, we're guaranteed of gaining on one team. But the Cubs are also guaranteed of staying the same distance behind the other. Makes it harder to catch. Just have to hope those teams play .500 against eachother for the Cubs to have a realistic chance.

 

Of course, the Cubs have to keep winning, which has proved problematic over the first 120 games of the season.

Not necessarily. Lets say the Mets take 2 of 3 from the Nats and then the Nats turn around and take 2 of 3 from them. Both teams are standing still at .500 giving the Cubs a chance to pass them. It still comes down to the Cubs winning their games. That will be and always has been the bottom line.

 

If they don't put together a really good streak like 28-13 to finish out the year, I'd like to see Hendry make a play for Joe Girardi as manager next season.

[CubsWin]

No one has any idea how many games we're going to have to win. To say we have to win 75-80% is just guesswork. To say we have to do that to have a realistic shot is just wrong in my opinion.

 

I don't think it's going to take 90 wins to get the Wild Card. None of these teams are that good and all of the East teams play each other too many times.

 

I could definitely see 88 wins taking it, but it's impossible to say right now. These teams have all been too streaky and unpredictable and have too many games remaining against each other.

I agree. No one knows exactly what it will take to win the wildcard. But I don't think people are saying it is definitely going to take 90 wins. I think that is just their opinion. I think it is possible for 88 wins to take it as well.

 

The Astros have been cooling off lately. In their last 13 games, they have gone 5-8 after having gone 15-2 in their previous 17 games. During their incredible hot streak, many Cubs fans here were saying that the Astros would never cool off and that they were going to run away with the wildcard. I wonder if they have eaten their crow yet. Hmmm.....

[CubfaninCA]

To win 90, one of these wildcard teams needs to play 10 over .500 baseball the rest of the way. Anyone see Houston, Philly, NY, Florida or Washington doing that?? Btw big win for Washington in the 2nd game.

 

The Cubs w/ Nomah, Lawton, and Kerry out of the pen are a different team than the one playing in June and July.

[Brian]

every team in front of us except Florida has lost today (Houston is currently losing)

 

Wash & Philly split a double header

Zach Duke beat the Mets

Brewers are beating Houston currently.

[nilodnayr]

To win 90, one of these wildcard teams needs to play 10 over .500 baseball the rest of the way. Anyone see Houston, Philly, NY, Florida or Washington doing that?? Btw big win for Washington in the 2nd game.

 

The Cubs w/ Nomah, Lawton, and Kerry out of the pen are a different team than the one playing in June and July.

 

WOOHOO, go Washington, they are by far the worst team ahead of us.