Clemens,Carpenter, or Willis for Cy Young? (edit)

[nilodnayr]

 

 

I'm strictly comparing Clemens to Carpenter, and not the rest of the league. Compared to Carpenter, Clemens hasn't been as durable, or given himself a chance to win as often.

 

Clemens is actually 43 years old, but that has nothing to do with who should win the Cy Young Award.

 

 

Another quirky stat:

 

Clemens has only pitched 3 games ALL YEAR against teams that would be in the playoffs, if the playoffs started today (2 against St. Louis, 1 against Atlanta). He's 1-0 (his team scored 4 runs for him in that game), and his team is 1-2 in those games.

 

 

Carpenter has pitched 7 games against teams that would be in the playoffs, if the playoffs started today. He's 4-2, and his team is 5-2 in those games.

 

 

 

Clemens is 3-3 against the NL Central.

 

Carpenter is 10-0 vs. the NL Central.

 

 

Thank Carpenter has had something to do with the Cards' big NL Central lead?

 

 

Well if the Cy Young was going to a team, it would go to the cards...unfortunatley its supposed to go to a pitcher (I acknowledge that often wins are considered although we all obviously know little stock should be put in them). What you dont mention that against playoff teams, Clemens ERA is 1.89 and Carps is 2.47. And against winning teams Clemens ERA is 1.2 and Carps is 2.6....hmmmm. Why dont you stop quoting team statistics and start quoting something the pitcher has quite a bit of control over.

[wolf stansson]

In the past, St. Louis media and (management/players/Tony) hasn't been shy about publicly lobbying for their players to get awards.

 

and so it begins

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I guess there's a bit of an upside to Dusty's personality, he'll never make annoying, biased, unfactual claims for a player to get an award. Oh wait, he does that to justify playing time for the terrible players on the team, which is infinitely worse than a meaningless award. :(

[EastonBlues22]

But I think the fact that Carp has more innings has to do with La Russa being willing to let Carp go longer than Houston lets Clemens go. That's just my opinion though.

Both Carpenter and Clemens have started 24 games. Carpenter has pitched 16.1 more innings...or about an extra inning over Clemens in seven out of every ten games. Their average pitch counts per start are 103 for Clemens and 106 for Carpenter. Clemens just isn't getting as much mileage out of his pitches for whatever reason...which is extremely odd since Carpenter has more strikeouts AND walks than Clemens, so you would figure that Carpenter would be the one being less effecient. Strange.

[EastonBlues22]

Clemens has had 7 starts where he's gotten zero runs of run support, meaning it's been impossible for him to win those games. He's also had 4 games where the bullpen blew a lead after he left the game, thereby costing him a win. I sat down and looked at what Clemens' record would be if he had the run support that Carpenter had in each of his games, and it looks like Clemens' record would be about 19-1 right now.

 

Also, the Baseball Prospectus Expected W-L records are:

 

Carp: 14.0-5.5 (Luck=+4.5)

Clemens: 14.0-3.3 (Luck=-3.6)

 

Clemens' low expected win total was a bit surprising to me, but otherwise the stat turned out like I anticipated. Clemens has been very unlucky this year, while Carpenter has been fortunate to have such good offensive support.

I'm curious, exactly, what you meant by the run support that Carpenter had in each of his games...

 

Did you just give him a five run spot every game? Or did you take the difference between Carpenter's run support and Clemen's and then tack THAT on to the run support he had in each individual game.

 

I think the second would be a much better way to do it...seeing as how if Carpenter had Clemen's average run support for two of his losses, then those would have disappeared as well.

[K-Town]

 

 

I'm strictly comparing Clemens to Carpenter, and not the rest of the league. Compared to Carpenter, Clemens hasn't been as durable, or given himself a chance to win as often.

 

Clemens is actually 43 years old, but that has nothing to do with who should win the Cy Young Award.

 

 

Another quirky stat:

 

Clemens has only pitched 3 games ALL YEAR against teams that would be in the playoffs, if the playoffs started today (2 against St. Louis, 1 against Atlanta). He's 1-0 (his team scored 4 runs for him in that game), and his team is 1-2 in those games.

 

 

Carpenter has pitched 7 games against teams that would be in the playoffs, if the playoffs started today. He's 4-2, and his team is 5-2 in those games.

 

 

 

Clemens is 3-3 against the NL Central.

 

Carpenter is 10-0 vs. the NL Central.

 

 

Thank Carpenter has had something to do with the Cards' big NL Central lead?

 

 

Well if the Cy Young was going to a team, it would go to the cards...unfortunatley its supposed to go to a pitcher (I acknowledge that often wins are considered although we all obviously know little stock should be put in them). What you dont mention that against playoff teams, Clemens ERA is 1.89 and Carps is 2.47. And against winning teams Clemens ERA is 1.2 and Carps is 2.6....hmmmm. Why dont you stop quoting team statistics and start quoting something the pitcher has quite a bit of control over.

 

Because it didn't seem to matter what the pitcher (Randy Johnson, Jake Peavy, etc.) did last year when Clemens won. Why should it matter this year?

 

Clemens' ERA is lower because he's being coddled, plain and simple.

[K-Town]

But I think the fact that Carp has more innings has to do with La Russa being willing to let Carp go longer than Houston lets Clemens go. That's just my opinion though.

Both Carpenter and Clemens have started 24 games. Carpenter has pitched 16.1 more innings...or about an extra inning over Clemens in seven out of every ten games. Their average pitch counts per start are 103 for Clemens and 106 for Carpenter. Clemens just isn't getting as much mileage out of his pitches for whatever reason...which is extremely odd since Carpenter has more strikeouts AND walks than Clemens, so you would figure that Carpenter would be the one being less effecient. Strange.

 

It's because Clemens doesn't HAVE to be efficient. He knows he's only expect to pitch into the 7th inning, and then hit the showers. If his team needs him beyond that, tough. He's got that ERA to protect.

[K-Town]

Clemens has had 7 starts where he's gotten zero runs of run support, meaning it's been impossible for him to win those games. He's also had 4 games where the bullpen blew a lead after he left the game, thereby costing him a win. I sat down and looked at what Clemens' record would be if he had the run support that Carpenter had in each of his games, and it looks like Clemens' record would be about 19-1 right now.

 

Why was it impossible for him to win those games? I showed examples where, if he had stuck around longer than his customery 7 innings, his team would have won the game for him. If he'd gut it out a few times for his team, instead of going all-out for 7 innings (to protect his precious ERA) and then hitting the showers, maybe he AND his team would have won a few more games.

Edited August 16, 2005 by K-Town

[K-Town]

If Baseball was decided on rate stats? You're talking about the greatest season of all-time with Gibson, that 1.12 is known by everyone and Clemens has better rate stats than Gibson.

 

Yet, Clemens can have better rate stats and not be the front-runner for the Cy Young?

 

I'm not sure what you're saying. YOU are using rate stats to say that Clemens is arguably having a better year than Gibson. YOU are using rate stats to say that Clemens is having a better year than Carpenter. I'm telling you that the obsession with rate stats isn't fair, and if you want to use rate stats, then start your campaign for Chad Cordero as the Cy Young winner this year.

 

Clemens' rate stats are better, in part, because he's being coddled. He hasn't finished a game for his team all year.

 

 

Last Year's NL pitching results and Cy Young Voting

 

Results

Jake Peavy 15-8 2.27

R Johnson 16-14 2.60

Ben Sheets 12-14 2.70

Carlos Zambrano 16-8 2.75

Clemens 18-4 2.98

Oliver Perez 12-10 2.98

Carl Pavano 18-8 3.00

Roy Oswalt 20-10 3.49

 

Cy Young Voting

Clemens

Johnson

Oswalt

Schmidt

Zambrano

Pavano

Gagne

Lidge

Sheets

 

 

There were FOUR other pitchers in the NL with a better ERA than Clemens last year, yet Clemens won the Cy Young Award. Peavy had a better ERA than ANY of the other pitchers, and wasn't even on the radar for the Cy Young Award. Now, in 2005, when Clemens finally gets the ERA t hing down pat, the award is suddenly ALL about ERA. I don't get it.

 

Again, there is no precedence. A starting pitcher has never finished what he started ZERO times, and still won the Cy Young Award. I don't get it.

[K-Town]

Clemens has had 7 starts where he's gotten zero runs of run support, meaning it's been impossible for him to win those games. He's also had 4 games where the bullpen blew a lead after he left the game, thereby costing him a win. I sat down and looked at what Clemens' record would be if he had the run support that Carpenter had in each of his games, and it looks like Clemens' record would be about 19-1 right now.

 

Also, the Baseball Prospectus Expected W-L records are:

 

Carp: 14.0-5.5 (Luck=+4.5)

Clemens: 14.0-3.3 (Luck=-3.6)

 

Clemens' low expected win total was a bit surprising to me, but otherwise the stat turned out like I anticipated. Clemens has been very unlucky this year, while Carpenter has been fortunate to have such good offensive support.

 

Look up the numbers for 2004, when Clemens won the award. As long as we're using the same standard every year, I'm fine with it.

[Warpticon]

Clemens has had 7 starts where he's gotten zero runs of run support, meaning it's been impossible for him to win those games. He's also had 4 games where the bullpen blew a lead after he left the game, thereby costing him a win. I sat down and looked at what Clemens' record would be if he had the run support that Carpenter had in each of his games, and it looks like Clemens' record would be about 19-1 right now.

 

Why was it impossible for him to win those games? I showed examples where, if he had stuck around longer than his customery 7 innings, his team would have won the game for him. If he'd gut it out a few times for his team, instead of going all-out for 7 innings (to protect his precious ERA) and then hitting the showers, maybe he AND his team would have won a few more games.

 

Wow, what a terrible argument. I'd hate to live in your world where pitching 7 shutout innings is a bad thing just because it's not 8 or 9 shutout innings. I also am amused by the idea that it's less selfish to stay deeper in games, potentially risking injury, in hopes of getting W's than it is to leave and give your teammates a chance to win the game for you when you're tired and don't have your best stuff anymore.

 

And what's up with this circular arguing in which you claim Clemens doesn't deserve it this year becuase of the reasons he won it last year? Are you not paying attention to the fact that most of these people think Clemens didn't deserve it last year, either?

[TruffleShuffle]

Clemens has had 7 starts where he's gotten zero runs of run support, meaning it's been impossible for him to win those games. He's also had 4 games where the bullpen blew a lead after he left the game, thereby costing him a win. I sat down and looked at what Clemens' record would be if he had the run support that Carpenter had in each of his games, and it looks like Clemens' record would be about 19-1 right now.

 

Also, the Baseball Prospectus Expected W-L records are:

 

Carp: 14.0-5.5 (Luck=+4.5)

Clemens: 14.0-3.3 (Luck=-3.6)

 

Clemens' low expected win total was a bit surprising to me, but otherwise the stat turned out like I anticipated. Clemens has been very unlucky this year, while Carpenter has been fortunate to have such good offensive support.

 

Look up the numbers for 2004, when Clemens won the award. As long as we're using the same standard every year, I'm fine with it.

 

You can't use the same standard every year because people pitch to different levels every year. If Clemens' ERA were 1.90 or something, then I'd probably give it to Carpenter, but we're talking about a guy whose ERA is among the best in baseball history with just a quarter of the season to go. The funny thing about all of this is that Carpenter would have been the easy winner last year if he had put up the numbers that he's putting up this year.

 

As for the argument that Clemens needs to pitch farther into the game to get the win, it's not really valid. Carpenter, whether he pitches deep into the game or not, gets run support. When you give up zero runs in 7 innings, you should win the game over 90% of the time, but Clemens has gotten screwed more often than your average pitcher this year, and has also had the misfortune of pitching on many of the days when Brad Lidge or some member of the bullpen melted down. Clemens has been a victim of bad luck much more than of his own inability to pitch complete games.

[Warpticon]

Oh, as for the constant mentioning of Cordero...think 100 innings might be a wee more significant a difference in sample size than 16 innings?

[gus_dog]

In almost every K-Town post, it is downplaying Clemen's achievements this season.

 

It has become VERY obvious that K-Town not only thinks Carpenter should win Cy this year, but that Clemens should not.

 

Conversely, Truffle, Warpticon, et. Al., are not convinced to abandon their support for Clemens, despite K-Town's best efforts to discredit him.

 

Am I reading correctly?

 

Is there some partisanship involved here? Perhaps.

 

Therefore, I respectfully submit that neither one of these positions is going to change, as it appears there is no middle ground.

[K-Town]

Oh, as for the constant mentioning of Cordero...think 100 innings might be a wee more significant a difference in sample size than 16 innings?

 

I totally agree, which is why I made the point. Some of you INSIST on using rate stats, while completely ignoring workload. That's why I brought up Cordero. Comparing Clemens' 160 innings to Gibson's 300 innings is not really different than me comparing Cordero's 60 innings to Clemens' 160 innings.

[K-Town]

In almost every K-Town post, it is downplaying Clemen's achievements this season.

 

It has become VERY obvious that K-Town not only thinks Carpenter should win Cy this year, but that Clemens should not.

 

Conversely, Truffle, Warpticon, et. Al., are not convinced to abandon their support for Clemens, despite K-Town's best efforts to discredit him.

 

Am I reading correctly?

 

Is there some partisanship involved here? Perhaps.

 

Therefore, I respectfully submit that neither one of these positions is going to change, as it appears there is no middle ground.

 

Read again. I've said time after time that Clemens is having a spectacular season. It's not like I'm down on Clemens. I just can't imagine a starting pitcher winning the Cy Young Award, without finishing a single game that he started. Not even coming CLOSE to finishing, the vast majority of the time. It's also amazing that Clemens has only appeared THREE TIMES ALL YEAR against playoff teams, and pulled himself out of a close game, in the middle of a tight playoff race in August, because his back was uncomfortable.

 

Clemens is having a terrific year. If he wins the Cy Young Award, it certainly won't be a crime. Heck, Carpenter himself says that Clemens deserves it.

 

All things considered though, it amazes me that most people (not all of you) think it's a no-brainer.

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

BleedCubbieBlue:

 

Does it matter that Clemens is "chasing history", with his ERA? What does this have to do with winning an award as the best player at your position? You, of all people, should understand the insignifcance of chasing history. After all, didn't Sammy Sosa win the MVP Award in the same year that Mark McGwire smashed one of baseball's ALL TIME records (not just "modern era")???

 

Peavy led the league in ERA last year, and wasn't even COSIDERED for the Cy Young Award. Now, it's ALL about ERA. Peavy led Clemens by .71 ERA points last year, and wasn't even on the Cy Young radar, while Clemens won. Now Clemens leads Carpenter by .93 ERA points, and it's a no-brainer in Clemens' favor? I don't get the logic.

 

Am I a "homer"? Probably, a little bit. Like I said, Clemens is having a terrific year, and I won't throw a fit if he wins the award. I just wish more people would recognize what a phenomenal overall year Carpenter is having too, instead of just brushing him off. Carpenter is probably having a better overall year (wins, ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, etc.) than any NL pitcher in the last 6 or 7 years. It's a shame that nobody will notice.

 

No one here is brushing Carpenter off. If you read some of my posts you'll see that I've said I believe Carpenter will win the award by the end of the year. He's an incredible pitcher. I'll be the first to admit that last year I didn't think he was the real deal. But now, he's proved that he is. But right now, Clemens is having the better year. Besides wins (a stat that Clemens cannot earn, he can only lose), he's better than, or right with Carpenter in every category. Yes, McGwire broke the home run record. But guess what, so did Sosa. Sosa also lead McGwire in RBI's, Avg., and had way more steals. He lead McGwire in most offensive categories except home runs, which he only lost by four, and on base percentage stats. And Sosa lead his team to the playoffs. (I know the Cards are going to the playoffs, but there is a good chance the Astros are too. And besides, a pitcher can't lead his team to the playoffs since he only pitches 1 out of every 5 games.) If Carpenter can have the same type of ERA as Clemens, and both of them have the best ERA in the modern era, then we'd be having a different discussion. But he doesn't. Clemens is making the rest of the league look silly in that category. And if Clemens wasn't getting .94 runs per game in support earlier in the year, or is his bullpen hadn't blown the game for him on several occasions, it's pretty obvious that he'd have 16-18 wins by now.

 

Again, I think Carp will win it by the end of the year, but right now, you can't discredit what Clemens is doing because he doesn't wear red.

[K-Town]

Fair enough. I'm not discrediting what Clemens is doing. I'm truly AMAZED by what he's doing. It's just a big red flag to me that he's not durable enough to finish even ONE GAME in an entire season. Again, that's unprecedented for a Cy Young candidate. Clemens MAY finish with the best ERA in the modern era, that much is true. But he may also be the only starting pitcher in the history of baseball to win the award without finishing a single game that he started. Say it doesn't matter if you want to. But it's certainly never happened before, so there must be SOMETHING to it.

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

Fair enough. I'm not discrediting what Clemens is doing. I'm truly AMAZED by what he's doing. It's just a big red flag to me that he's not durable enough to finish even ONE GAME in an entire season. Again, that's unprecedented for a Cy Young candidate. Clemens MAY finish with the best ERA in the modern era, that much is true. But he may also be the only starting pitcher in the history of baseball to win the award without finishing a single game that he started. Say it doesn't matter if you want to. But it's certainly never happened before, so there must be SOMETHING to it.

 

That's fine, but you don't know that for sure. Garner might not ever let him finish. It's not that he can't finish, because I'm sure Clemens could finish a game, even at 43 years old. It'd be foolish to believe otherwise. But maybe Garner is just protecting him because he knows they'll need him for the playoffs, or to get to the playoffs.

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

Fair enough. I'm not discrediting what Clemens is doing. I'm truly AMAZED by what he's doing. It's just a big red flag to me that he's not durable enough to finish even ONE GAME in an entire season. Again, that's unprecedented for a Cy Young candidate. Clemens MAY finish with the best ERA in the modern era, that much is true. But he may also be the only starting pitcher in the history of baseball to win the award without finishing a single game that he started. Say it doesn't matter if you want to. But it's certainly never happened before, so there must be SOMETHING to it.

 

That's fine, but you don't know that for sure. Garner might not ever let him finish. It's not that he can't finish, because I'm sure Clemens could finish a game, even at 43 years old. It'd be foolish to believe otherwise. But maybe Garner is just protecting him because he knows they'll need him for the playoffs, or to get to the playoffs.

 

You pay your bullpen for a reason... so that your starters don't have to throw a complete game.

[K-Town]

Fair enough. I'm not discrediting what Clemens is doing. I'm truly AMAZED by what he's doing. It's just a big red flag to me that he's not durable enough to finish even ONE GAME in an entire season. Again, that's unprecedented for a Cy Young candidate. Clemens MAY finish with the best ERA in the modern era, that much is true. But he may also be the only starting pitcher in the history of baseball to win the award without finishing a single game that he started. Say it doesn't matter if you want to. But it's certainly never happened before, so there must be SOMETHING to it.

 

That's fine, but you don't know that for sure. Garner might not ever let him finish. It's not that he can't finish, because I'm sure Clemens could finish a game, even at 43 years old. It'd be foolish to believe otherwise. But maybe Garner is just protecting him because he knows they'll need him for the playoffs, or to get to the playoffs.

 

Maybe he could finish a game. If he was capable of finishing a game effectively, I don't see the logic in not letting him finish. Every other Cy Young candidate has finished games. I've already noted that the 2 times that he's gone as many as 8 innings this year (yup, only 2 times), his followig start was worse than his norm.

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

Why rish the injury to your star pitcher if you don't have to? His job isn't go to out and try to win the Cy Young by blowing out his arm. His job is to put his team in a position to win. And he's done that... every single game. If LaRussa wants to burn out Carp's arm just so he can win some stupid award, go right ahead. No Cubs fan will ever complain about a Cards player being used incorrectly. But it seems pretty moronic to do that to a guy that's only gone over 200 innings ONCE in his career. Especially since you're going to need him to be fresh if you want to win the world series.

 

And we went over this yesterday. Clemens has three games where he went 8 innings. If 3 hits and 2 earned runs is considered a bad start for Clemens, then you're basically saying he deserves it right now. He's had one bad start following an 8 inning game, and that was against the Cardinals. Many guys have bad starts against the Cards. He only gave up 4 runs that game too. And you keep saying he's only gone 8 innings a few times, but he's also NEVER been knocked out early this year, which can't be said about any other pitcher. These are all reasons he's leading the Cy Young right now.

[1wizard]

GusDog wrote:

Therefore, I respectfully submit that neither one of these positions is going to change, as it appears there is no middle ground.

 

The middle ground might be that each side decides to agree to disagree. Or agree that the rest of the season might open up opportunities for Clemens or Carp to be a clear cut winner. I sure hope that is the case because if Clemens wins because of ERA alone than the whole process will look pretty questionable.

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

GusDog wrote:

Therefore, I respectfully submit that neither one of these positions is going to change, as it appears there is no middle ground.

 

The middle ground might be that each side decides to agree to disagree. Or agree that the rest of the season might open up opportunities for Clemens or Carp to be a clear cut winner. I sure hope that is the case because if Clemens wins because of ERA alone than the whole process will look pretty questionable.

 

I can agree to that. It's obvious there is no middle ground in this discussion. I hope one or the other runs away with it, so there's no debate at the end of the year. But the debate now isn't just because of Clemens ERA. He's also among the league leaders in almost every other category. His ERA isn't the only reason I think he's leading right now. It's the fact that he's the most dominant pitcher in baseball.

[K-Town]

GusDog wrote:

Therefore, I respectfully submit that neither one of these positions is going to change, as it appears there is no middle ground.

 

The middle ground might be that each side decides to agree to disagree. Or agree that the rest of the season might open up opportunities for Clemens or Carp to be a clear cut winner. I sure hope that is the case because if Clemens wins because of ERA alone than the whole process will look pretty questionable.

 

I can agree to that. It's obvious there is no middle ground in this discussion. I hope one or the other runs away with it, so there's no debate at the end of the year. But the debate now isn't just because of Clemens ERA. He's also among the league leaders in almost every other category. His ERA isn't the only reason I think he's leading right now. It's the fact that he's the most dominant pitcher in baseball.

 

He's not the most "dominant". He's probably been the most consistent, for 7 innings a game, but Carpenter is more dominant.

 

Carpenter has pitched 3 of the 5 best games in baseball (not just the NL, but in the entire Major Leagues), according to ESPN's game scores. Clemens is nowhere to be found:

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/bestgames

 

 

In fact, if Carpenter hadn't blown up for one game back in April (3.1 innings, 8 earned runs), then he'd have an ERA well under 2, and would probably be the easy favorite for the Cy Young Award. Now, I'm not saying that game should be ignored, because it shouldn't. My only point is that Carpenter has been awfully steady, except for one bad outing. Give Clemens the 17 extra innings that Carpenter has (especially going late into games), and Clemens might have busted up once or twice. Who knows?