Clemens,Carpenter, or Willis for Cy Young? (edit)

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

Is this a case of Clemens being out of gas late in the game and having to come out, or the manager afraid of overusing a 40+ year old pitcher. Clemens went 8 scoreless innings the other day, and got a no decision. This has happened many times. I don't know what it is now, but I remember earlier in the year he was getting 0.94 runs per game in support. How is a pitcher supposed to win with that? If you give up 1 run per game, but your team can't score 1 for you, then that's just not right. His ERA is staggering right now. I still can't believe it. But I think the fact that Carp has more innings has to do with La Russa being willing to let Carp go longer than Houston lets Clemens go. That's just my opinion though.

 

Carp's 6 complete games are amazing though, especially with this much time left in the season. He has an amazing ERA as well, 2nd best in the league. Pretty much any other year, he'd be leading in that category, and would be running away with the Cy Young. But right now, the nod has to go to Clemens.

 

But I will say this, I believe by the end of the year, Carpenter will have the better resume, and will win the Cy Young. He will easily win 20 games, and I think Clemens' ERA will come back to earth at least a little bit. So right now, Clemens is leading, but Carpenter will win the Cy Young.

Edited August 15, 2005 by BleedCubbieBlue81

[UK1679666180]

It's a different era, when Clemens is on the mound he has been better statistically than Gibson was while he was on the mound.

 

I don't buy into the fact that Clemens is some short innings pitcher either, he's going just under 7IP per start. Carpenter is going 7.5, that 1 ot 2 batter per game doesn't make up the statistical advantage of Clemens, not even close to it.

 

Somehow, I don't think Clemens is pulling himself from ballgames that is Garner. If Garner wants to use him effectively, so be it.

 

Clemens has been statistically better than Gibson, better year? Possibly, but the stats say Clemens has been better. I'll have to see what the Win Shares say, but based on what is avail. now, Clemens has been better.

[K-Town]

It's a different era, when Clemens is on the mound he has been statistically than Gibson was while he was on the mound.

 

I don't buy into the fact that Clemens is some short innings pitcher either, he's going just under 7IP per start. Carpenter is going 7.5, that 1 ot 2 batter per game doesn't make up the statistical advantage of Clemens, not even close to it.

 

Somehow, I don't think Clemens is pulling himself from ballgames that is Garner. If Garner wants to use him effectively, so be it.

 

Clemens has been statistically better than Gibson, better year? Possibly, but the stats say Clemens has been better. I'll have to see what the Win Shares say, but based on what is avail. now, Clemens has been better.

 

The rate stats say that Clemens has been better than Gibson was (so far). So if Clemens decides that his bad back won't allow him to pitch one more inning this year, are you going to conclude that he had a better year than Gibson? If Clemens had tried to do what Gibson did for his team, he would have never survived the season.

 

I can't speak for every game, but Clemens pulled himself out of the game Saturday night, because his back was uncomfortable:

 

Clemens said his back -- which he said he injured while moving furniture at his home in late July -- prevented him from coming out for the ninth inning.

 

``I'm getting by,'' he said. ``I know the results are looking good, but I want to get to a point where my body feels good without hurting something and then have to miss a start. I don't want that to happen.''

 

Clemens said he needed ``to get off this medicine that's tearing my ...'' before stopping himself. He would not say what medication he was taking, and then quickly said the medicine was not causing the problem.

 

I never said that Clemens is a short innings pitcher, but if a guy has an ERA as good as Clemens has, and hasn't finished a single game all year, I pretty much have to conclude that he's being "coddled". Call me crazy.

 

The Aug. 13 game is one example of a game that he MIGHT have been able to win, if he had stuck around.

 

On 6/28, he left after 7 innings with a big lead. The bullpen blew the game, so Clemens didn't win. I can promise you that Carpenter would have gone back to the mound in the 8th, and nailed the game down for his team.

 

On 7/8, Houston scored a run in the 9th inning to win, but again, Clemens wasn't able to stick around long enough to get the win.

 

On June 11, he again only stuck around for 7 innings, after allowing only 3 hits and 1 run. His team went on to score enough runs for the win, but Clemens didn't stick around long enough for the decision.

 

On May 24, he only went 5 innings, despite only allowing 2 hits, and 0 runs. His team had a lead when he left, but Qualls came in from the bullpen and blew it. Again, Clemens didn't stick around long enough to see the decision.

 

On May 4, he again went only 7 innings, giving up 2 runs (his team ended up scoring 4 that day, but Clemens was long gone before having a chance to get the win).

 

 

 

Again, Clemens has been great when he's on the mound, but his durability has to count against him.

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

The rate stats say that Clemens has been better than Gibson was (so far). So if Clemens decides that his bad back won't allow him to pitch one more inning this year, are you going to conclude that he had a better year than Gibson? If Clemens had tried to do what Gibson did for his team, he would have never survived the season.

 

I can't speak for every game, but Clemens pulled himself out of the game Saturday night, because his back was uncomfortable:

Clemens said his back -- which he said he injured while moving furniture at his home in late July -- prevented him from coming out for the ninth inning.

 

``I'm getting by,'' he said. ``I know the results are looking good, but I want to get to a point where my body feels good without hurting something and then have to miss a start. I don't want that to happen.''

 

Clemens said he needed ``to get off this medicine that's tearing my ...'' before stopping himself. He would not say what medication he was taking, and then quickly said the medicine was not causing the problem.

 

I never said that Clemens is a short innings pitcher, but if a guy has an ERA as good as Clemens has, and hasn't finished a single game all year, I pretty much have to conclude that he's being "coddled". Call me crazy.

 

The Aug. 13 game is one example of a game that he MIGHT have been able to win, if he had stuck around.

 

On 6/28, he left after 7 innings with a big lead. The bullpen blew the game, so Clemens didn't win. I can promise you that Carpenter would have gone back to the mound in the 8th, and nailed the game down for his team.

 

On 7/8, Houston scored a run in the 9th inning to win, but again, Clemens wasn't able to stick around long enough to get the win.

 

On June 11, he again only stuck around for 7 innings, after allowing only 3 hits and 1 run. His team went on to score enough runs for the win, but Clemens didn't stick around long enough for the decision.

 

On May 24, he only went 5 innings, despite only allowing 2 hits, and 0 runs. His team had a lead when he left, but Qualls came in from the bullpen and blew it. Again, Clemens didn't stick around long enough to see the decision.

 

On May 4, he again went only 7 innings, giving up 2 runs (his team ended up scoring 4 that day, but Clemens was long gone before having a chance to get the win).

 

 

 

Again, Clemens has been great when he's on the mound, but his durability has to count against him.

 

A pitcher that can give you 7 scoreless innings almost every time is not durable? So he pulled himself out saturday with a bad back... after 8 shut out innings. A pitcher that can go 8 scoreless with a bad back is incredible. How many starters really go longer into games than him? It's not many. He can go late into games, and he usually does. He's currently 8th in the NL in innings pitched, and he has one less start than 3 of the guys ahead of him. Oh yeah, and he's 41 years old. I think he's one of the most durable pitchers out there. He hasn't put up the innings that Carp has, but he's not the same age as Carp, and he's definitely not on the same team as him.

 

EDIT: Clemens IP each game this year (posted because it's simply staggering. He does not get knocked out of games early):

 

Game number 1: 7.0

2. 7.0

3. 7.0

4. 7.0

5. 7.0

6. 7.0

7. 7.0

8. 8.0

9. 6.0

10. 5.0

11. 8.0

12. 5.0

13. 7.0

14. 6.0

15. 7.0

16. 7.0

17. 7.0

18. 7.0

19. 7.0

20. 6.0

21. 7.0

22. 7.0

23. 7.0

24. 8.0

 

And through all those starts, he gave up two or less runs in all but two games. One game he gave up 3 (against the Cubs), and one game he gave up 4 (against the Cards).

[K-Town]

A pitcher that can give you 7 scoreless innings almost every time is not durable? So he pulled himself out saturday with a bad back... after 8 shut out innings. A pitcher that can go 8 scoreless with a bad back is incredible. How many starters really go longer into games than him? It's not many. He can go late into games, and he usually does. He's currently 8th in the NL in innings pitched, and he has one less start than 3 of the guys ahead of him. Oh yeah, and he's 41 years old. I think he's one of the most durable pitchers out there. He hasn't put up the innings that Carp has, but he's not the same age as Carp, and he's definitely not on the same team as him.

 

 

I'm strictly comparing Clemens to Carpenter, and not the rest of the league. Compared to Carpenter, Clemens hasn't been as durable, or given himself a chance to win as often.

 

Clemens is actually 43 years old, but that has nothing to do with who should win the Cy Young Award.

 

 

Another quirky stat:

 

Clemens has only pitched 3 games ALL YEAR against teams that would be in the playoffs, if the playoffs started today (2 against St. Louis, 1 against Atlanta). He's 1-0 (his team scored 4 runs for him in that game), and his team is 1-2 in those games.

 

 

Carpenter has pitched 7 games against teams that would be in the playoffs, if the playoffs started today. He's 4-2, and his team is 5-2 in those games.

 

 

 

Clemens is 3-3 against the NL Central.

 

Carpenter is 10-0 vs. the NL Central.

 

 

Thank Carpenter has had something to do with the Cards' big NL Central lead?

[K-Town]

Game number 1: 7.0

2. 7.0

3. 7.0

4. 7.0

5. 7.0

6. 7.0

7. 7.0

8. 8.0

9. 6.0

10. 5.0

11. 8.0

12. 5.0

13. 7.0

14. 6.0

15. 7.0

16. 7.0

17. 7.0

18. 7.0

19. 7.0

20. 6.0

21. 7.0

22. 7.0

23. 7.0

24. 8.0

 

And through all those starts, he gave up two or less runs in all but two games. One game he gave up 3 (against the Cubs), and one game he gave up 4 (against the Cards).

 

Then why didn't he stick around to try to get the win? Obviously, his team was still very much in all of those games (as you pointed out).

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

A pitcher that can give you 7 scoreless innings almost every time is not durable? So he pulled himself out saturday with a bad back... after 8 shut out innings. A pitcher that can go 8 scoreless with a bad back is incredible. How many starters really go longer into games than him? It's not many. He can go late into games, and he usually does. He's currently 8th in the NL in innings pitched, and he has one less start than 3 of the guys ahead of him. Oh yeah, and he's 41 years old. I think he's one of the most durable pitchers out there. He hasn't put up the innings that Carp has, but he's not the same age as Carp, and he's definitely not on the same team as him.

 

 

I'm strictly comparing Clemens to Carpenter, and not the rest of the league. Compared to Carpenter, Clemens hasn't been as durable, or given himself a chance to win as often.

 

Clemens is actually 43 years old, but that has nothing to do with who should win the Cy Young Award.

 

 

Another quirky stat:

 

Clemens has only pitched 3 games ALL YEAR against teams that would be in the playoffs, if the playoffs started today (2 against St. Louis, 1 against Atlanta). He's 1-0 (his team scored 4 runs for him in that game), and his team is 1-2 in those games.

 

 

Carpenter has pitched 7 games against teams that would be in the playoffs, if the playoffs started today. He's 4-2, and his team is 5-2 in those games.

 

 

 

Clemens is 3-3 against the NL Central.

 

Carpenter is 10-0 vs. the NL Central.

 

 

Thank Carpenter has had something to do with the Cards' big NL Central lead?

 

Think being on the Cardinals has something to do with Carpenter's 17 wins?

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

Game number 1: 7.0

2. 7.0

3. 7.0

4. 7.0

5. 7.0

6. 7.0

7. 7.0

8. 8.0

9. 6.0

10. 5.0

11. 8.0

12. 5.0

13. 7.0

14. 6.0

15. 7.0

16. 7.0

17. 7.0

18. 7.0

19. 7.0

20. 6.0

21. 7.0

22. 7.0

23. 7.0

24. 8.0

 

And through all those starts, he gave up two or less runs in all but two games. One game he gave up 3 (against the Cubs), and one game he gave up 4 (against the Cards).

 

Then why didn't he stick around to try to get the win? Obviously, his team was still very much in all of those games (as you pointed out).

 

You honestly expect a starter throw a complete game every start? He put his team in position to win EVERY GAME. It's not his fault Houston's offense was HORRIBLE for 3/4 of the year. Those numbers are staggering, I don't care who he is. I hate Clemens, but those numbers don't lie.

[K-Town]

You honestly expect a starter throw a complete game every start? He put his team in position to win EVERY GAME. It's not his fault Houston's offense was HORRIBLE for 3/4 of the year. Those numbers are staggering, I don't care who he is. I hate Clemens, but those numbers don't lie.

 

No, I don't expect a starter to throw a complete game every start. But how can you explain a starter with Clemens ERA not being able to finish even ONE game?

 

His numbers ARE staggering. I never said they weren't.

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

Maybe Garner won't let him finish, we don't know. He might believe in their bullpen. I'm pretty certain that Clemens could've finished at least one of those games. But Garner might not want to overuse his horse with his team in a playoff race. Especially if that horse is 43 years old and nearing the end of his career.

[K-Town]

Maybe Garner won't let him finish, we don't know. He might believe in their bullpen. I'm pretty certain that Clemens could've finished at least one of those games. But Garner might not want to overuse his horse with his team in a playoff race. Especially if that horse is 43 years old and nearing the end of his career.

 

Maybe.

 

We know that it was Clemens' decision to take himself out of the last game, despite pitching well, and his team playing a tight game.

 

You're right. Garner may not want to overuse him, which is why I said earlier that he's being "coddled".

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

If I had a guy like Clemens, I'd probably do the same thing. That's one guy you don't want hurt when you are in a playoff race.

 

If LaRussa was smart, he might start cutting down Carp's innings too. With the Cards so far ahead, I'd let him go 6, and then shut him down. He could always use the rest for the playoffs, and it would cut down on the injury risk.

[K-Town]

If I had a guy like Clemens, I'd probably do the same thing. That's one guy you don't want hurt when you are in a playoff race.

 

If LaRussa was smart, he might start cutting down Carp's innings too. With the Cards so far ahead, I'd let him go 6, and then shut him down. He could always use the rest for the playoffs, and it would cut down on the injury risk.

 

I don't think it's a horrible idea to "coddle" Clemens. But if a pitcher that needs to be coddled, then it should take something away from his Cy Young consideration, in my opinion.

 

It wouldn't be a horrible idea to rest Carpenter a little. That's part of the reason that Reyes came up for a spot start last week. Larussa is trying to get all of his starters an extra day off every week or so.

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

I don't know if it's that Clemens NEEDS to be coddled, or Garner just does it anyway. Dusty does the same type of thing every once in a while with his guys. He'll rest someone who really doesn't need it. But then again, he won't rest DLee when he REALLY needs it.

[UK1679666180]

Clemens can't faulted b/c of a decision of the manager, he's been just a effective late in the game as early this year.

 

Based on rate stats he has been better than Gibson as far as value to the team, probably not b/c of Gibson throwing almost 30 CGs.

 

Like I said earlier, Clemens has been more production during his 160IP than Gibson was during a 160IP stretch, that 100IP that will be there at the end of the year won't make up the production differece of that Clemens has over Gibson, b/c Clemens has been better than Gibson just in a smaller timeframe.

[K-Town]

Clemens can't faulted b/c of a decision of the manager, he's been just a effective late in the game as early this year.

 

Based on rate stats he has been better than Gibson as far as value to the team, probably not b/c of Gibson throwing almost 30 CGs.

 

Like I said earlier, Clemens has been more production during his 160IP than Gibson was during a 160IP stretch, that 100IP that will be there at the end of the year won't make up the production differece of that Clemens has over Gibson, b/c Clemens has been better than Gibson just in a smaller timeframe.

 

Sometimes it's been the manager's decision. The example that I gave you was Clemens' decision to leave. I'm not sure how often that happened. Regardless, I'm not "faulting" him. I'm just saying that it's a factor. Clemens has been effective late in games, yes. How effective has he been in the 9th inning of games? How about the 8th inning? (Hint: he's only seen the 8th inning 3 times).

 

 

I'm not sure what you mean about "Gibson's 160 IP stretch". Did you single out Gibson's first 160 IP's, or what? I'm not sure what you mean.

 

Clemens has been better than Gibson in a similar time frame (and better than Carpenter, for that matter), because he has the advantage of only being expected to go about 7 innings. He can pitch carefully, not challenge hitters, stay fresh, etc. If you've got a great bullpen, that strategy is fine. Houston's bullpen hasn't done so well for Gibson this year, so the lack of going the distance has hurt his team. How do you measure how much a pitcher helps his team by keeping the bullpen rested? I'm not sure. Gibson certainly did that (leaps and bounds better than Clemens). Carpenter has done it, too.

 

It's similar to Mark Prior, I think. He's GREAT. But I'm sure it's frustrating to Cubs fans sometimes that he's spent by the 6th or 7th inning (forcing the suspect bullpen into the game), because he hasn't challenged enough hitters, and gone right after them. I expect you can be alot more effective for 7 innings, if you know that's all that's expected of you. I'm not sure it's the best strategy for the team, though.

 

Again, how can a starting pitcher with an ERA that good only see the 8th inning 3 times all year? I honestly don't get it.

[UK1679666180]

He can pitch carefully, not challenge hitters, stay fresh, etc.

 

How do you think Gibson was able to throw 300IP without being fatigued?

 

Pitchers in the 60s were known for taking hitters off, The 6-7 hitters of the 60s are comparable to 8 hitters today. Extremely talented pitchers like Gibson could take hitters off, by not exercising nearly as much as effort as Clemens would thru the prder minus the 9 spot.

 

I'm saying that if broke Gibson's season down, any 160IP stretch of it was likely not as effective as the of Clemens so far.

 

I'm not sure. Gibson certainly did that (leaps and bounds better than Clemens). Carpenter has done it, too.

 

STL had the best reliever of the late 60's, by the name Joe Hoerner. It wasn't like the Cards were trying to stretch Gibson to avoid using him. that was the mindset back then as well as the ability to take more hitters "off" during the game.

 

I don't think Clemens has negatively impacted his bullpen's use even compared to Carpenter. 11 innings of additional work has not destroyed Houston's pen. Not having someone like King in the 8th as well as others to get to Isringhausen has impacted Houston more when trying to get to Lidge.

[K-Town]

I'm not sure about "taking hitters off". It seems like a stretch, but arguing that point with you would be like chasing ghosts, I suppose. I guess we'll just have to disagree. I can assure that Gibson didn't take himself out of any games in the 7th inning in August when his team desperately needed him to shut the opponent down in the middle of a pennant race, because of an uncomfortable back. Clemens is having a spectacular season, but comparing Clemens' 160 innings to Gibson's 300 seems like quite a stretch, to me.

 

I'm sure that Hoerner was a fine closer. Gibson saw to it that the other starters in the rotation were able to take full utilization of him. Clemens doesn't give his team that luxury. Lidge has to cover Clemens in practically every one of his starts, meaning that one of the other starters in the rotation won't have that luxury during that stretch of games.

[K-Town]

By the way, Gibson wasn't "taking hitters off" very often. He averaged 130 pitches per game that year. AVERAGED!!

 

Clemens wouldn't DREAM of throwing that many pitches in even ONE GAME.

 

If Clemens had done what Gibson did, he wouldn't have lasted to the All-Star break.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

By the way, Gibson wasn't "taking hitters off" very often. He averaged 130 pitches per game that year. AVERAGED!!

 

Clemens wouldn't DREAM of throwing that many pitches in even ONE GAME.

 

If Clemens had done what Gibson did, he wouldn't have lasted to the All-Star break.

 

Different era. If Gibson faced today's hitters, he'd get rocked.

[K-Town]

By the way, Gibson wasn't "taking hitters off" very often. He averaged 130 pitches per game that year. AVERAGED!!

 

Clemens wouldn't DREAM of throwing that many pitches in even ONE GAME.

 

If Clemens had done what Gibson did, he wouldn't have lasted to the All-Star break.

 

Different era. If Gibson faced today's hitters, he'd get rocked.

 

We'll never know......

 

If Gibson paced himself for only 200 innings per year, instead of 300, he may have been much more effective.

[UK1679666180]

No team would be that abusive to a pitcher these days, of course, teams had notions that pitchers were made of steel.

 

Pitchers could go 130 if they had an easy 7-8-9 hitters to go thru. Look at the numbers of the btm of the order hitters in '68.

 

Clemens is having a spectacular season, but comparing Clemens' 160 innings to Gibson's 300 seems like quite a stretch, to me.

 

Why? That's why rate stats exist. That's what I've used in my argument.

 

Cumulative stats favor Gibson b/c of disparity of IP, rate stats favor Clemens.

[K-Town]

No team would be that abusive to a pitcher these days, of course, teams had notions that pitchers were made of steel.

 

Pitchers could go 130 if they had an easy 7-8-9 hitters to go thru. Look at the numbers of the btm of the order hitters in '68.

 

Clemens is having a spectacular season, but comparing Clemens' 160 innings to Gibson's 300 seems like quite a stretch, to me.

 

Why? That's why rate stats exist. That's what I've used in my argument.

 

Cumulative stats favor Gibson b/c of disparity of IP, rate stats favor Clemens.

 

Pitchers threw 130 pitches, but it didn't matter because the hitters weren't as good? Are you saying that "easier hitters" makes it easier to whip your arm 130 times, as opposed to "difficult hitters"? 130 pitches is 130 pitches, isn't it? Maybe I'm wrong.

 

I'm not opposed to rate stats. If you're going to over-emphasize rate stats though (considering Clemens has about 1/2 as many innings as Gibson), then I'll make a case for Chad Cordero to win the Cy Young Award this year, because of his 1.05 ERA.

 

 

And, I still don't know how a starting pitcher with Clemens' ERA could have completed ZERO games. That doesn't make a drop of sense to me, and it's completely unprecedented.

[1wizard]

Clemens is having an unbelievable year but if the rolls were reversed would Carp even be mentioned as a Cy Young Candidate? If Clemens had the 17 wins, second lowest ERA, more strikeouts, less walks, and more innings (7.5 innings per start), than he would have been given the award already.

 

If Carp had the great ERA, won only 11 games, and only averaged 6.8 innings per start, he would be severly criticized for being the benefactor of not going deep in games. The logical argument would be that he would a higher ERA if he went deeper in games. I highly doubt Carp would even be close in the Cy Young vote.

 

As it stands now, if Clemens wins the Cy Young, it would be a joke because RJ had the better stats last year and lost to Clemens because of wins. It would appear as if the media changes criteria to favor a higher profile pitcher.

[K-Town]

Clemens is having an unbelievable year but if the rolls were reversed would Carp even be mentioned as a Cy Young Candidate? If Clemens had the 17 wins, second lowest ERA, more strikeouts, less walks, and more innings (7.5 innings per start), than he would have been given the award already.

 

If Carp had the great ERA, won only 11 games, and only averaged 6.8 innings per start, he would be severly criticized for being the benefactor of not going deep in games. The logical argument would be that he would a higher ERA if he went deeper in games. I highly doubt Carp would even be close in the Cy Young vote.

 

As it stands now, if Clemens wins the Cy Young, it would be a joke because RJ had the better stats last year and lost to Clemens because of wins. It would appear as if the media changes criteria to favor a higher profile pitcher.

 

Yup. Based on last year's criteria, Carpenter should be a shoe-in. It'll be somewhat hypocritical if Clemens wins this year for the same reasons that Johnson DIDN'T win, last year.

 

If Houston doesn't nail down a playoff spot, Clemens shouldn't even be considered.