is Derrek Lee really going to do well next year?

[synergy]

I mean he was a monster in the first half and now he's ice cold. His career average is .278. Has he really solved his problem or is it just a fluke? If it's a fluke we should trade him while his value is the highest.

[chicubs]

I would call it a semi-fluke. This is a career year, no doubt, but there are other reasons why is slumping like the fact that he does have an injured shoulder as well as he hasnt had a day off in years. Next year, I expect him to revert to around .285 with 35 homeruns. Still good, still fairly young, so I dont really see any motivation to trade him. We have plenty of dead weight we need to move around first.

[Omar]

I say we should keep him around until Brian Dopirak is fully ready.

[rocket]

I say we should keep him around until Brian Dopirak is fully ready.

 

Should we really count on Dopirak to develop into a ML quality hitter?

[JC]

I say we should keep him around until Brian Dopirak is fully ready.

 

Should we really count on Dopirak to develop into a ML quality hitter?

 

No question that he is having a poor transition to High A. Still, that doesn't completely dismiss his accomplishments last year. It will, however, place particular pressure on his '06 season.

 

I maintain that he needs shipped to an AL team. He seems perfect for a Huff trade, but that doesn't appear at all likely. He could also be moved to Colorado if a deal for Helton was made after dealing Lee to NY for ARod. 8)

[rawaction]

I think Lee will be good next year, but not great as he has been this year. I still see him as a guy who could hit .290/.380/.560 for a few more years. He was a 2nd tier 1B up until this year. I think he can stay in the top tier for a few more years.

[ZMovieman]

With Lee's change in stance came the ability to hit inside pitches. With his shoulder ailing him (playing everyday with it is not helping it heal), he has been stuggling. But he's a grinder, so you won't hear him complain. That being said, if Lee remembers what made the first half of his season so memorable, I don't see why he can't become a .300-.310 hitter for the next few years. I see it as a reasonable increase. As it is, I figure he'll end this season in the high .330s.

[rickrolled]

I don't see him doing what he was doing this year in '06, but I still see him hitting around .270-.280 with 30 HR's and playing GG defense. So, not a threat for the triple crown, but still very good.

[sporrer17]

He's a great defender, and a above average-good hitter. This season has been a great year, but it's way above his career norms, and this recent slump (whatever the cause) is kind of telling me he's coming back to the .280 ish hitter.

 

If he hits .280/.370/.530, it's still solid # production.

 

If a team blows me away with an offer for Lee (like say, Joe Mauer, Rich Harden, multiple top tier prospects, etc) then I'm certainly not going to complain if he's gone. If we could maybe get Konerko as a FA, I wouldn't be too depressed about Lee.

[rawaction]

He's a great defender, and a above average-good hitter. This season has been a great year, but it's way above his career norms, and this recent slump (whatever the cause) is kind of telling me he's coming back to the .280 ish hitter.

 

If he hits .280/.370/.530, it's still solid # production.

 

If a team blows me away with an offer for Lee (like say, Joe Mauer, Rich Harden, multiple top tier prospects, etc) then I'm certainly not going to complain if he's gone. If we could maybe get Konerko as a FA, I wouldn't be too depressed about Lee.

 

That would still be nice, but he was about that productive in Florida. Last year he was headed for a career year, before he wore down at the end. I think out of Florida, with the newfound confidence and respect that will come from this year, Lee will be significantly better than his career norms. My .290/.380 may be a little low, actually.

[sporrer17]

That would still be nice, but he was about that productive in Florida. Last year he was headed for a career year, before he wore down at the end. I think out of Florida, with the newfound confidence and respect that will come from this year, Lee will be significantly better than his career norms. My .290/.380 may be a little low, actually.

 

I hope you're right, Raw. When it comes to projecting stats, I basically take a stab in the dark and hope I come out looking like a genius lol. I'm sure someone on this board can do a chart or something very scientific/mathematical that would show numerous reasons why he is or isn't likely to maintain this success.

 

Basically I just see a guy who's always been around .270-.280 who had a GREAT (out of his mind) first half...and then started hitting the wall in the 2nd half, where he is usually a much better hitter. Hopefully he can continue to be a dominant slugger in the NL. I truely hope that...however I am not tremendously confident that he'll keep up the type of season (or all that close to it) he's had this year.

[sonofsamiam]

That would still be nice, but he was about that productive in Florida. Last year he was headed for a career year, before he wore down at the end. I think out of Florida, with the newfound confidence and respect that will come from this year, Lee will be significantly better than his career norms. My .290/.380 may be a little low, actually.

 

I hope you're right, Raw. When it comes to projecting stats, I basically take a stab in the dark and hope I come out looking like a genius lol. I'm sure someone on this board can do a chart or something very scientific/mathematical that would show numerous reasons why he is or isn't likely to maintain this success.

 

Basically I just see a guy who's always been around .270-.280 who had a GREAT (out of his mind) first half...and then started hitting the wall in the 2nd half, where he is usually a much better hitter. Hopefully he can continue to be a dominant slugger in the NL. I truely hope that...however I am not tremendously confident that he'll keep up the type of season (or all that close to it) he's had this year.

 

Well, his OPS since the break is still just under his career mark, so that makes his terrible slump pretty close to his past norm. I think he'll probably continue to hit around .290-.310 a season for a while. What concerns me more is his recent lack of patience -- maybe he's trying to do too much at the plate?

 

As far as power, I fully expect 35+ homers for a while. Remember, he hit nearly twice as many HRs on the road as at home during his Marlins stint, which obviously seriously affected his power numbers.

[CubinNY]

With the exception of this year, Lee has been the model of consistency. I look for him to regress back to his career numbers next year. Numbers, which aren't too shabby but not great either.

 

.270/30HR/90 RBI

[neely crenshaw]

With the exception of this year, Lee has been the model of consistency. I look for him to regress back to his career numbers next year. Numbers, which aren't too shabby but not great either.

 

.270/30HR/90 RBI

 

add in phenominal defense....playing in wrigley i think he will always make a run at .300 and 30-35

[Derwood]

Let me check...

 

Oh shoot, I left my crystal ball in my other pants

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

Even if he does revert back to his career norms, his glove alone should keep him in a Cubs uniform. I'll take .290 with 33 home runs if it saves Aramis from breaking the all time error record for a season. I'll never fully understand the philosophy of trading someone when their value is high. It's basically saying, okay, once you get good, we're going to get rid of you for someone who's not as good. He's a gold glover, and an above average hitter, he's worth the money.

[10man]

Indeed I think that shoulder may be bothering DLee more than he cares to admit. Ditto for Aramis and the quadricep. Most likely the shoulder is altering Lee's swing enough. We all know the difference between a pop-up and a home run swing can be measured in fractions of inches.

[sonofsamiam]

Even if he does revert back to his career norms, his glove alone should keep him in a Cubs uniform. I'll take .290 with 33 home runs if it saves Aramis from breaking the all time error record for a season. I'll never fully understand the philosophy of trading someone when their value is high. It's basically saying, okay, once you get good, we're going to get rid of you for someone who's not as good. He's a gold glover, and an above average hitter, he's worth the money.

 

Right. And I can't believe anyone would want Konerko over Lee. (Just pretend to ignore my avatar.)

 

For the sabermetricians out there, from 2000-2005, Lee absolutely shatters Konerko in WARP2, and beats him handily in Win Shares, as well. While those stats may not be 100% perfect (and no stat is), they quantify all facets of a players game. Lee was an underrated player until this year.

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

Indeed I think that shoulder may be bothering DLee more than he cares to admit. Ditto for Aramis and the quadricep. Most likely the shoulder is altering Lee's swing enough. We all know the difference between a pop-up and a home run swing can be measured in fractions of inches.

 

Yeah, there have been a couple pop ups lately that he has just missed. These are pitches that normally would land on Waveland Ave. Lately I think Lee is trying to over compensate for his shoulder. And that's how injuries get worse. I also think this "slump" he's in is causing him to chase more and more bad pitches. He wants to hit so bad that he's going after pitches he used to lay off of. I think if the Cubs continue to tumble (which is looking more and more likely with the Cards and Stros coming up), Lee and Aramis might get a day off here and there. Or at least they will if the Cubs are smart. We already have one superstar getting offseason surgery, we don't need two or three.