Realstic look at 2006+

[Iceblink]

I didn't think we had the players to make a trade at the deadline, and I don't think that's changing soon. With few shiny FA's - and those probably getting overpaid because of the shortage - I'll look at what we've got.

 

Patterson might up his value by playing well the rest of the way, but he's still more useful to us if he can figure it out and be a decent hitter. *If* he hits a bit the next two months, there's no reason to trade him. Add Pie, and I remove Lawton or Burnitz before Corey (if Corey is a .270 hitter and not a .230 one.) An OF of Pie, Corey, and Lawton/Murton would be a low-power one, but might be the best we could piece together without a miracle move.

 

Lawton's approach at the plate would be welcomed next year, but his defense has been underwhelming. I'm not sure he can even handle LF at this point - though we had "unecessary dive" Alou out there for a few years. Still, we've GOT to have a lead off hitter, and Lawton is currently the best option - even if it means crappy D in left and Murton loses AB's. With hesitation, I'd probably try to resign Lawton.

 

Lee and ARam are the heart of the lineup. They'll be back. We could really use a power lefty bat to break them up, but I'm not sure where that would come from. Burnitz is a gamer, but he clearly isn't that bat. Walker is a boost from a non-offensive position, but is getting older. The Soriano efforts that might've included Walker leaving make me think he might not be back. Cedeno might factor in at 2B if Nomar decided to take another 1 year attempt at proving he can still play healthy (which is silly to think about.) Defensively Cedeno should play SS over Nomar. I expect that Nomar leaves, Perez plays SS while Cedeno watches, and Walker or a warm body plays 2B. The tears flow freely on the board when it happens.

 

I'd scale back Zambrano for the rest of this season. If his back bothers him at all next start, I shut him down. No sense in him overcompensating with his arm and screwing something up.

 

Pray for Prior's health. If the rotation is roughly the same next year and either Prior or Z get hurt, .500 is the best we can probably expect.

 

Anything Woody can give us is a bonus - though another injury-ridden year at his salary is a boat anchor on the payroll. We can't get appreciable value for him until he's had his shoulder work and pitches well next year. And even if he does, we'll have to pick up some salary to move him - especially if he's still relieving. Since a trade now would bring less than nothing, I'd only trade him - next year - if it becomes clear he wasn't coming back in 2007.

 

Maddux will almost certainly be back. He makes too much for his stats, but I'm hoping there's lots of intangibles the young pitchers are soaking up. I know that's hooey given the 5.00+ ERAs they have, but I like to pretend. I like having him on the team and he'd be a fine #5 (if we had a #3 and #4), but wish he was cheaper.

 

Bullpen. Bullpen. Bullpen. Dempster has had some nice moments. Ohman is fine as our situational lefty. That's about the nicest things I can say. Novoa, Wellemeyer, Wuertz should be competing for one spot at the back of the pen. They all have promise, but shouldn't be counted on. Hill and Mitre might factor in here, but Mitre is wired for starting and Hill needs to show he belongs in the bigs.

 

A lefty hitting catcher with anything at the plate would be a nice addition - even if it's only to get 2 of every 5 starts. Barrett is as good a catcher as we can get, but he tends to slump. While Blanco has been fine the last month, a second catcher who could make good use of about 200 ABs would keep Barrett's cold streaks on the bench.

 

Oh, and put my dead cat on the bench instead of Dusty.

[soapy]

I'd still be interested in what it might take to get Huff. It looks like he's owed $7.5 mil next season. He's stuggled this year, but his three year splits are still not bad (.307/.364/.524). At 28, I see him as possibly being a better option than Giles. I'd also consider bringing back Lawton and Nomar (if he'd sign a one-year incentive laden deal).

 

Assuming I have a new Manager (which would be my first change), I'd bring back Neifi as the backup SS and keep Cedeno in Iowa (at least to start the year). I'd keep Murton as my primary backup OF. I also start Pie off in Iowa (possibly to be called up mid season).

 

Lineup:

Lawton LF

Walker 2B

Lee 1B

Ramirez 3B

Huff RF

Nomar SS

Patterson CF

Barrett C

 

If I really think Wood is going to come back healthy, I probably stay out of the SP free agent market and fill the fifth spot from within (Rusch/Hill/Williams/Mitre etc.). Also, if Maddux decides to retire, it could change my thinking on this.

 

That's all I have time for right now. I'd revamp my bench quite a bit, but I can't get into that at this time.

[Iceblink]

I've read a couple things saying Huff's defense has regressed to the point where he should only be at 1B. Actually read similar things about Lawton's defense - not that he should play 1B, but that he couldn't play the OF well any longer.

 

I don't know how much faith to put in those reports of Huff, but Lawton certainly hasn't shown much as a defender. If Huff is a stiff in the OF, or his offense stays in average land, or Tampa overvalues him (which they've always done), then I'd pass. Any of those three being true makes me not interested.

[10man]

~sigh~ here we are thinking about NEXT year again.

[CubfaninCA]

Things to do before April 1, 2006:

 

1. Get Wood and Patterson out there for the rest of the year and get their trade value up.

 

2. Fire Baker. If Jim W. Hendry won't do it, fire Hendry too.

 

3. Let Nomar & Lawton go elsewhere.

 

4. Sign Giles to a 3 year Alou~like deal.

 

5. Go after Manny. Offer Wood, Patterson and another prospect or two. I think Boston will look to deal Manny in the offseason, and the Cubs are one of the few clubs w/ the budget to absorb Manny.

 

6. Give Pie the cf job and Cedeno the ss job in spring training.

 

I think most of those statements are sensible, with the exception of #5. Our corner IFs have enough pop to compensate for Ramirez, who IMO should never set foot on the green part of a baseball field. Johnny Damon, on the other hand, IS a FA. Yes, he's a Boras client; yes, he will ask for a boatload of money, but if you're going to deal CPatt elsewhere and break the bank anyway...

 

I WHOLEHEARTEDLY agree that Cedeno should start at SS next year.

 

I think Damon will sign a 5 to 6 year deal elsewhere. The Trib doesn't like to take on anything longer than 4 yrs. so can't see Damon in Chicago.

 

As for the Cubs power, I don't think Lee will have a year like this again. He's starting to slow down now. With Cub pitching being average, and w/ a thin group of free agent pitchers to acquire, I want to bulk up team OPS. Yes, Manny is an eccentric one, but I'd roll the dice on him.

[katway]

After seeing all the defensive blunders this year, I'd like to see a better balance of offense and defense on the Cubs with some money being spent towards more reliable pitching like Wagner (Dempster has stated he would like to return even as a set up man if that's what the Cubs want) and Burnett (he is a risk, but Prior, Wood, Zambrano, Burnett, and anyone would be the best rotation in the game and capable of losing one of the aces and continueing to roll). I'm thinking maybe a move of Nomar to 2nd would be better for him at this point in his career. While I like Walker, he has defensive and baserunning deficiancies and I wouldn't mind trading him for a middle relief pitcher:

 

Felix Pie (CF) --Superb defense (will provide many web gems with his hustle), excellent baserunner. If he can get on, then the Cubs will score often.

 

Murton (LF) -- Average defender, good baserunner, good OBP and situational hitting early in the lineup.

 

Lee (1B) -- 5 tool guy that uses all 5 tools and is good to excellent in all categories. May not be a better defensive 1B in baseball.

 

Ramirez (3B) -- Average defender, excellent average and power hitting.

 

Garciaparra (2B) -- Move him to second where he will not need to extend his range. Excellent hitter is all aspects and decent base runner.

 

Patterson (RF) -- Would be an excellent defender in RF, good baserunner providing an unusual speed threat in the 6 hole, can hit for power.

 

Barrett © -- Average defensively (even with those mental mistakes), good hitter providing Patterson some protection.

 

Cedeno (SS) -- Good/excellent defensive shortstop that may be able to provide offense and speed at the bottom of the order.

 

Such a team would not be fueled with power, but would have enough power (Lee, Ramirez, Nomar, CPatt, Barrett) for pitchers to respect. Clearly, it would take a new manager to focus the team on generating runs through a little small ball from time to time.

[abuck1220]

I'd say the biggest bench hole is someone who can play 1st (and one other position, maybe OF, because you don't want just a strict backup 1Bman) to back up Lee so he doesn't crap out in September.

 

TODD HOLLANDSWORTH

 

(getting dusty to use Todd properly would be a start)

 

But that's the problem. If Todd is on the roster he'll be misused. He's one of "Dusty's boys". For this team to do anything in 2006, you first have to start by taking Dusty's toys away.

 

And Hollandsworth only has 3 career games at 1B. I was thinking of a little more experienced 1B man.

 

branyan.

 

he can play 3b too, which officially makes macias expendable since it appears as though his biggest asset is the fact that he's the only guy that can back up at 3b (though i'm sure neifi could do it).

 

branyan would be a left handed pinch-hitter a left-handed complement to lee at first, a backup 3b and a fifth OFer. of course, i'm not so sure the cubs wouldn't rather fill all those spots with four crappy players instead of one decent one...

[AAApittsburgh]

That lineup would not outproduce this year's lineup. How about this:

 

Resign Lawton. Sign Giles, although he wouldn't be my first choice. If the Cubs want to upgrade defense at 2B, maybe they should look into Junior Spivey. His career numbers are comparable to Walker's, but he is inconsistent. He's injured right now. I don't think it would take very much to get him. Or perhaps the Marlins would be willing to trade Castillo? I'd also like to see C upgraded. Barrett's offense is good, but I think we can do better. Barrett and Murton to the A's for Kendall. Then stick Pie in CF.

 

lawton

kendall

giles

lee

aram

nomar

pie

spivey

[XZero771679666304]

I'd say the biggest bench hole is someone who can play 1st (and one other position, maybe OF, because you don't want just a strict backup 1Bman) to back up Lee so he doesn't crap out in September.

 

TODD HOLLANDSWORTH

 

(getting dusty to use Todd properly would be a start)

 

But that's the problem. If Todd is on the roster he'll be misused. He's one of "Dusty's boys". For this team to do anything in 2006, you first have to start by taking Dusty's toys away.

 

And Hollandsworth only has 3 career games at 1B. I was thinking of a little more experienced 1B man.

 

branyan.

 

he can play 3b too, which officially makes macias expendable since it appears as though his biggest asset is the fact that he's the only guy that can back up at 3b (though i'm sure neifi could do it).

 

branyan would be a left handed pinch-hitter a left-handed complement to lee at first, a backup 3b and a fifth OFer. of course, i'm not so sure the cubs wouldn't rather fill all those spots with four crappy players instead of one decent one...

 

I really like that idea. Especially since it means bye bye Macias. Plus Branyan would be a huge power threat in PH situations.

[erik316wttn]

I'd say the biggest bench hole is someone who can play 1st (and one other position, maybe OF, because you don't want just a strict backup 1Bman) to back up Lee so he doesn't crap out in September.

 

TODD HOLLANDSWORTH

 

(getting dusty to use Todd properly would be a start)

 

But that's the problem. If Todd is on the roster he'll be misused. He's one of "Dusty's boys". For this team to do anything in 2006, you first have to start by taking Dusty's toys away.

 

And Hollandsworth only has 3 career games at 1B. I was thinking of a little more experienced 1B man.

 

branyan.

 

he can play 3b too, which officially makes macias expendable since it appears as though his biggest asset is the fact that he's the only guy that can back up at 3b (though i'm sure neifi could do it).

 

branyan would be a left handed pinch-hitter a left-handed complement to lee at first, a backup 3b and a fifth OFer. of course, i'm not so sure the cubs wouldn't rather fill all those spots with four crappy players instead of one decent one...

 

Branyan would be OK as a backup, but I'd only agree to have him here if Dusty is gone. Dusty would overuse him. He's the perfect Dusty hitter (big power guy who doesn't walk much and strikes out a ton) so he'd be misused.

 

eta: Happy 4,000th post to me!

Edited August 10, 2005 by erik316wttn

[XZero771679666304]

That lineup would not outproduce this year's lineup. How about this:

 

Resign Lawton. Sign Giles, although he wouldn't be my first choice. If the Cubs want to upgrade defense at 2B, maybe they should look into Junior Spivey. His career numbers are comparable to Walker's, but he is inconsistent. He's injured right now. I don't think it would take very much to get him. Or perhaps the Marlins would be willing to trade Castillo? I'd also like to see C upgraded. Barrett's offense is good, but I think we can do better. Barrett and Murton to the A's for Kendall. Then stick Pie in CF.

 

lawton

kendall

giles

lee

aram

nomar

pie

spivey

 

Why would Oakland trade Kendall for Barrett after they traded Barrett to us? They don't need Murton, either.

 

It's just too hard to say at this point who will be our corner OF's in 2006. We need to see Murton get AB's vs RHP so a dermination can be made on his ability to play everyday. The only thing I feel relatively sure of is the Pie will be in CF, even if I don't agree with it.

 

I don't want Spivey. Moving Nomar to second would be good if he is agreeable to a move. I like Giles, but am leery of his age, even if its a short contract. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Hendry (if he is still here) goes after Kearns/Dunn again.

[Tim]

I haven't really put together any cohesive thoughts about next year yet, so these are just initial impressions of what I would do, not what I think the Cubs would do.

 

Free Agents:

 

Priority #1 - AJ Burnett

Priority #2 - Brian Giles

 

That's it for me and the free agency market. If there's an OF available through trade that's younger than Giles and is even close to the OBP stud that he is, then I'd be interested. But Giles fills a tremendous need for this team and I'd give him a 3-4 year deal and look to trade him part of the way through the contract as he ages. Burnett is a rare talent and I'd love to grab him.

 

Resign or pick up options on:

 

#1 - Nomar

#2 - Walker

#3 - Dempster

#4 - Williamson

 

I'd be more than happy to give Nomar another one year deal to see if he can stay healthy and be productive. There just aren't any better options out there. Walker is a very underrated player at 2B for his production. Dempster has been fine in the pen. While I'd prefer BJ Ryan, I think Dempster makes more sense from a cost/performance perspective.

 

Trades:

 

As I say above, if I could find a younger option than Giles that is a good bet to provide a .400 OBP, I'd do it. There aren't many of those options out there, though. So, I really don't have a lot of positions I'd care to fill through trade.

 

I do have a bunch of guys I'd like to trade away for minor leaguers, though....

 

#1 - Maddux

#2 - Rusch

#3 - Mitre

#4 - Novoa/Wuertz/Welly/Ice

 

Maddux needs a bigger park where the home runs won't leave the park quite as often. I'd see if SD would be interested in sending minimal talent back and if Greg would accept a trade there.

 

Rusch should be traded somewhere he can be a starter. He won't bring back any kind of impact minor leaguer, but I think we could net a decent return for him.

 

Mitre, Welly, etc. are out of options and will need to make the team, pass through waivers and outrighted, plain ol' released or traded. There isn't going to be room for all of them. I'd pick "traded" if at all possible.

 

Arbirtration:

 

I'd offer Lawton & Dempster arbitration. I'd be okay with a one year deal for either guy if they accept and I'd like the draft picks if they leave.

 

Coaching Staff:

 

#1 - Promote Von Joshua as hitting coach

#2 - Replace Rothschild

#3 - Replace Dusty

 

Surprisingly, I don't think #3 is as big of a deal as nos. 1 & 2.

 

Position Players:

 

Assuming Lawton is out of here, this gives me a position player lineup of:

 

C - Barrett

1B - Lee

2B - Walker

3B - Ramirez

SS - Nomar

LF - Murton / Sing / Greenberg / Pie

CF - Patterson (in LF/RF if Pie is the rookie that wins the job)

RF - Giles (probably in LF, depending on the rookie)

 

My preference would be for Pie to stay in AAA, Greenberg to be the backup OF, Murton to take the job in LF to start the year and Sing to destroy Iowa for a while before getting called up. I also may be the last person that still thinks Corey can be a valuable contributor, but I'd like him to remain in CF until Pie improves his discipline in the minors.

 

Bench:

 

IF - Fontenot

IF - Cedeno

OF - Murton / Sing

OF - Greenberg

C - Blanco

 

Starting Pitching:

 

Prior

Zambrano

Burnett

Wood

Maddux

 

I'd do everything I could to trade Maddux or convince him to retire. If I were successful, I'd put Williams or Hill in his place.

 

Bullpen:

 

Dempster

Williamson

Ohman

Wuertz

Hill

Williams

other youngster (Novoa, JVB, Welly, Ice, etc.)

 

Yes, I know many will complain that I'm not doing enough in the pen. But I think there's plenty of talent there, it just needs to be used properly.

[YearofDaCubs]

I'm surprised I havent seen Hairston in any of the plans next year. I like Tim's idea of getting Giles and Burnett. Also adding Billy Wagner would be nice.

[VVMattVV]

What about Aardsma? Does anyone think he will be ready for a bullpen spot next year?

[XZero771679666304]

I'm surprised I havent seen Hairston in any of the plans next year. I like Tim's idea of getting Giles and Burnett. Also adding Billy Wagner would be nice.

 

Dusty and Hendry don't seem to care much for Jerry.

 

I'd rather have Ryan than Wagner, as Billy's arm is going to fly off one of these days.

[XZero771679666304]

What about Aardsma? Does anyone think he will be ready for a bullpen spot next year?

 

I do. I think this could be the 2006 pen:

 

Dempster

Williamson

Ryan

Aardsma

Ohman

Novoa

 

Filthy, IMO.

[YearofDaCubs]

What about Aardsma? Does anyone think he will be ready for a bullpen spot next year?

 

I do. I think this could be the 2006 pen:

 

Dempster

Williamson

Ryan

Aardsma

Ohman

Novoa

 

Filthy, IMO.

I forgot about Ryan, although I dont think the O's will let him walk. Ryan and Wagner either one would be great to have.

[CubfaninCA]

How is Giles defense nowadays?? He's still pretty solid right.

 

I don't think bringing back Nomar and Walker's a good idea. Walker's d is subpar, and Nomar's made a few bobbles since returning. He doesn't seem to have near the range anymore, and I doubt he'll get it back. My best guess is that he'd join Kerry Wood on the DL by May of 2006. The Cubs shouldn't allot $17-20 million of payroll to those two.

 

As for Maddux, pay a third to half his salary and move him for prospects. Should put either Hill or Williams in his spot. Use the savings elsewhere.

 

As for Burnett, my guess is that Baltimore or some other pitching starved team gives him a ridiculous deal. See Troy Percival, Armando Benetiz and Magglio Ordonez for more.

[Cubzfan64]

Just to promote even more discussion....

 

I'll start by saying I like D. Lee - I think he's above average offensively and superb defensively. That said, the Cubs have a vast history of selling low and buying high - as much as I like D. Lee, as others have said here, his value right now is VERY high and I believe he's a free agent after the 2007 season and will likely command big time $.

 

I know Theo Epstein has coveted D. Lee for at least 2 years now AND Boston is in definite need of a 1B for 2006. Realistically, how much talent do you think we could get back from Boston for D. Lee or a package of D. Lee and a pitcher like Rusch, Maddux or Wood (providing the last 2 would be willing to move)?

 

Boston has at least 3-4 pitchers in AAA and AA (likely being moved up to AAA next season) who look to have very very good arms - guys like Del Carmen (in Boston now), Papelbon, Sanchez, Lester and Ramirez at SS and Pedroia (sp?) at 2B who look to be close to coming up next season.

 

How much of this talent do you think we could get back from them if we were offer them Lee, one of the pitchers I listed and perhaps Patterson or Walker? Do you think they would be willing to give us Manny and 2 of their 3-4 top pitchers? At first I doubted it, but I have to think there's a trade to be made between our two teams that could benefit both teams.

 

Manny would make up for the loss of Lee's offense, we sign a capable 1B (like an Olerud, Mantkiewich (sp?) or "gasp" even Kevin Millar to take us through 2006 and if we get 2 pitching prospects they should be ready sometime late 2006 or by the start of 2007 which would allow us to use the free agent market at the end of 2006 to spend some $ and shore up 1B and any other empty spots.

 

I'm at work and don't really have time to think all this through, but I swear that Boston's needs and our wants could be tied together somehow to both of our benefits. The question is how much does Theo REALLY want D. Lee?

 

Any thoughts?

[Tim]

Oops. I forgot about Hairston. Add him to my bench players.

[CarolinaCubFan]

If the Yanks don't make the playoffs, I go hard after Arod. Maybe a 3-way with Texas?

 

Could you build a contender around an infield of Lee, Arod, and Aram with the 06 FA market?

[rawaction]

I agree with Tim. Burnett and Giles have to be 1 and 1A in the FA market. Burnett has to be looked at simply because he's by far the most talented free agent on the market.

 

As I said in another thread, I would seriously bring back mostly the same starters and strengthen the bench and bullpen. I'd try to bring back Lawton, Nomar, Williamson, Walker, and Dempster. I probably wouldn't offer Lawton arbitration, because he'd probably accept and get over $8M and probably wouldn't be a top A. But I'd try to sign him to a 2-year, $10-12M deal. I'd offer Nomar $4-5M plus incentives to come back. Cedeno becomes the backup SS (getting time if Nomar gets hurt) and 2B (getting time against LHPs).

 

I'd look to add 2 relief arms, 1 lefty, 1 righty. I would look to trade for a young arm with one of those moves, and maybe sign a guy like Wickman for the other. Then I'd add some high OBP, versatile guys to the bench.

[katway]

If the Yanks don't make the playoffs, I go hard after Arod. Maybe a 3-way with Texas?

 

Could you build a contender around an infield of Lee, Arod, and Aram with the 06 FA market?

 

Yankees will not trade Arod unless getting back more than he is worth. He's in Jeter's generation, so they will want to keep Arod to solidify their future playoff runs.

 

I also have concerns whether Arod can resume playing shortstop. He seems to have put on some wieght playing third and his mobility seems to have tailed off a little. He used to be among the best at defensive shortstop, but 2 years at third may have diminished his skills.

[erik316wttn]

I agree with Tim. Burnett and Giles have to be 1 and 1A in the FA market. Burnett has to be looked at simply because he's by far the most talented free agent on the market.

 

As I said in another thread, I would seriously bring back mostly the same starters and strengthen the bench and bullpen. I'd try to bring back Lawton, Nomar, Williamson, Walker, and Dempster. I probably wouldn't offer Lawton arbitration, because he'd probably accept and get over $8M and probably wouldn't be a top A. But I'd try to sign him to a 2-year, $10-12M deal. I'd offer Nomar $4-5M plus incentives to come back. Cedeno becomes the backup SS (getting time if Nomar gets hurt) and 2B (getting time against LHPs).

 

I'd look to add 2 relief arms, 1 lefty, 1 righty. I would look to trade for a young arm with one of those moves, and maybe sign a guy like Wickman for the other. Then I'd add some high OBP, versatile guys to the bench.

 

Are you listening, Jim Hendry? This man knows what he's talking about.

[Cubzfan64]

I agree with Tim. Burnett and Giles have to be 1 and 1A in the FA market. Burnett has to be looked at simply because he's by far the most talented free agent on the market.

 

As I said in another thread, I would seriously bring back mostly the same starters and strengthen the bench and bullpen. I'd try to bring back Lawton, Nomar, Williamson, Walker, and Dempster. I probably wouldn't offer Lawton arbitration, because he'd probably accept and get over $8M and probably wouldn't be a top A. But I'd try to sign him to a 2-year, $10-12M deal. I'd offer Nomar $4-5M plus incentives to come back. Cedeno becomes the backup SS (getting time if Nomar gets hurt) and 2B (getting time against LHPs).

 

I'd look to add 2 relief arms, 1 lefty, 1 righty. I would look to trade for a young arm with one of those moves, and maybe sign a guy like Wickman for the other. Then I'd add some high OBP, versatile guys to the bench.

 

Are you listening, Jim Hendry? This man knows what he's talking about.

 

I'm torn on Giles - he's definitely past his prime and it would just feel too much like picking up one of those guys who ends his career playing below average baseball, but if you can sign him to a short term contract that isn't too excessive I guess I'd do it.

 

I would have no problem with Burnett, but I honestly believe since it's such a thin free agent market and there are so many teams with money who will be looking to bolster their pitching that we'd end up severely overpaying for him - I just have to believe some team out there will "sign him at all costs" and make him rich and I don't know that I want that to be the Cubs.