The Wild Card is Still a Realistic Possibility

[DCNashville]

Is this scenario too far-fetched?

 

A. We make up one game in the standings in August and one game in the standings in September in games where we don't play Houston. That brings us back to within 3 of the Astros. All we have to do is play a game better than the Astros each month (not including head-to-head match-ups). We're due for a hot stretch at some point, and with our regulars back its bound to happen sooner or later. I'm also convinced Houston will cool off...I know many of us said the same thing last year, but they are a year older and are minus Jeff Kent and Carlos Beltran.

 

B. In our ten remaining games with the Astros, we go 7-3. Given the way the two teams are currently playing, that may seem far-fetched. But a lot can happen in a couple of weeks, let alone two months.

 

C. Beat Milwaukee 2 of 3 in September and play one game better than them the rest of the way. We surpass the Brew Crew, probably by a healthy margin.

 

D. Win the next game against the Mets and play two games better the rest of the way. With Z going tomorrow, I think this isn't unreasonable. The Mets just aren't a great team and their September schedule is rough (see below). We surpass the Mets.

 

E. Win 2 of 3 from the Marlins this month and play two games better than them the rest of the way. The most difficult to accomplish, but possible especially considering their schedule. Their FINAL TWENTY-NINE GAMES are against the Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Astros, and Braves. We surpass the Marlins.

 

F. The Nats and Phillies play 4 next week, and 3 in the final series of the season. No matter the outcome, we have a great chance to gain ground on either team. In Sept-October, the Phillies play TWENTY-SIX games against the Nats, Braves, Marlins, and Mets. That is a brutal stretch. The Nationals also have TWENTY-SIX GAMES during the final month against those same teams, Phils included. We surpass the Phillies and the Nats.

 

Bottom line, we've got to play a whole lot better during the next two months, but the schedule gives us a fighting chance. The Eastern teams are likely to beat up on each other and let us make up ground, and we control our own destiny against the Astros.

 

I'm still going to believe we're in it until I see what happens in Houston next week.

Edited August 7, 2005 by DCNashville

[DCNashville]

Also, in September we have 15 games with the Pirates, Reds, Giants, and Brewers. While I remember the collapse of '04, we are still set up for a strong finish down the stretch.

[rickrolled]

It's a possibility, but don't get your hopes up.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Mathematically, we are still in the race. Realistically, this team has no chance.

[OleMissCub]

Mathematically, we are still in the race. Realistically, this team has no chance.

 

I honest to god think my college team i played on could have gotten at least as many hits if not more as the Cubs got today. So pitiful. Coaching staff must go.

[DCNashville]

Mathematically, we are still in the race. Realistically, this team has no chance.

 

On this date last year, the Houston Astros were 55-54. They ended up winning the Wild Card with 92 wins. I'm sure most of their fans said the same things.

 

Realistically, I think Dusty will find some way to keep us out of the Wild Card. However, to say we have "no chance" especially considering the schedule is just "Cubsimism" that creeps into all of us this time of year.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Mathematically, we are still in the race. Realistically, this team has no chance.

 

I honest to god think my college team i played on could have gotten at least as many hits if not more as the Cubs got today. So pitiful. Coaching staff must go.

 

Is that your girlfriend in your sig or just a random girl?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Mathematically, we are still in the race. Realistically, this team has no chance.

 

On this date last year, the Houston Astros were 55-54. They ended up winning the Wild Card with 92 wins. I'm sure most of their fans said the same things.

 

Realistically, I think Dusty will find some way to keep us out of the Wild Card. However, to say we have "no chance" especially considering the schedule is just "Cubsimism" that creeps into all of us this time of year.

 

I think the fact that our manager refuses to play the best players is why I believe we realistically don't have a chance.

[DCNashville]

In fact, the Astros were left for dead at 56-60 last year on August 14th.

 

Why should we give up all hope now?

Edited August 7, 2005 by DCNashville

[DCNashville]

 

I think the fact that our manager refuses to play the best players is why I believe we realistically don't have a chance.

 

You don't have to convince me that Dusty blows. I haven't liked the hire from day one. I just think at some point the talent we have here that Dusty WILL play (Prior, Z, ARam, Lee, Nomar, etc) will finally play to its potential, something they havent done all year.

[OleMissCub]

Mathematically, we are still in the race. Realistically, this team has no chance.

 

I honest to god think my college team i played on could have gotten at least as many hits if not more as the Cubs got today. So pitiful. Coaching staff must go.

 

Is that your girlfriend in your sig or just a random girl?

 

It's a girl my cousin used to date when we were in college. I was actually engaged to an ole miss cheerleader for the past couple years....things feel apart though. This is her, not a great pic though:

 

http://www.jasonbaker.net/umfball/2000kentucky/cheerclose.jpg

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

 

I think the fact that our manager refuses to play the best players is why I believe we realistically don't have a chance.

 

You don't have to convince me that Dusty blows. I haven't liked the hire from day one. I just think at some point the talent we have here that Dusty WILL play (Prior, Z, ARam, Lee, Nomar, etc) will finally play to its potential, something they havent done all year.

 

I think there's too many holes. We have some talent, but not enough to squander spots in the line-up to players like Macias on a regular basis.

 

After Prior and Zambrano, our pitching is inconsistent and mediocre. Our line-up lacks consistency and the bottom the order scares no one. One of our best hitters hasn't started in a week and he should be starting everyday now that Hairston is hurt.

[DCNashville]

 

After Prior and Zambrano, our pitching is inconsistent and mediocre. Our line-up lacks consistency and the bottom the order scares no one. One of our best hitters hasn't started in a week and he should be starting everyday now that Hairston is hurt.

 

I assume you're referring to Murton? While I agree 100% that he should be playing over Macias/Hollandsworth, I'm not ready to annoint him "one of our best hitters" yet based on such a small sample size. However, I'd start him everyday the rest of the season to see what we've got in him. Dusty would get that a lot sooner if he he saw more than .295 next to Macias' name.

[CubsFanNJ]

 

I think the fact that our manager refuses to play the best players is why I believe we realistically don't have a chance.

 

You don't have to convince me that Dusty blows. I haven't liked the hire from day one. I just think at some point the talent we have here that Dusty WILL play (Prior, Z, ARam, Lee, Nomar, etc) will finally play to its potential, something they havent done all year.

 

I think there's too many holes. We have some talent, but not enough to squander spots in the line-up to players like Macias on a regular basis.

 

After Prior and Zambrano, our pitching is inconsistent and mediocre. Our line-up lacks consistency and the bottom the order scares no one. One of our best hitters hasn't started in a week and he should be starting everyday now that Hairston is hurt.

 

Actually, after today - bottom of the order is the only damn part of the team that did a damn thing. I hate living out here (east coast).... I miss Chicago....but the only thing that makes it worse is the sweep at Yankee Stadium (yes, I was there for all three)....and the sweep at Shea that's about to happen. Step number one - Dusty, gone. Big Jim can figure out the rest. I'm so done right now.

[10man]

Forget the playoffs. This team has played enough games to trend how it will play for the rest of the season.

The trend of the 2005 Chicago Cubs is this:

 

Play well for a week or so, then turn around and play badly for a week or so. Right now the team is on a downturn and soon they will go on another upturn that will take them above the .500 mark again. But then they will soon go back down again.

 

Make no mistakes about it. This club has already shown itself to be a .500 team and no minor moves (trades, callups, demotions, dfa's, etc.) is going to change that. At this point, the only thing that will affect this teams status is a MAJOR EARTH-SHAKING move. I'm talking about the firing of the manager and/or or GM, or a major waiver trade where the Cubs acquire a franchise player/s. (Please take note that I am not recommending these moves but merely giving an example as to what a major change would be).

[YearofDaCubs]

Mathematically, we are still in the race. Realistically, this team has no chance.

Agreed.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

 

Cubs Postseason Odds: 6.11370

Cards Postseason Odds: 99.34943

 

 

The cubs have a better chance then I thought...

 

 

:wink:

[ChiblueTNT]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

 

Cubs Postseason Odds: 6.11370

Cards Postseason Odds: 99.34943

 

 

The cubs have a better chance then I thought...

 

 

:wink:

 

wow is this cubs.com? nice one cards troll. Sorry buddy I dont find this massive collapse funny at all. but then again I thought cards fans had class, what was I thinking.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

 

Cubs Postseason Odds: 6.11370

Cards Postseason Odds: 99.34943

 

 

The cubs have a better chance then I thought...

 

 

:wink:

 

wow is this cubs.com? nice one cards troll. Sorry buddy I dont find this massive collapse funny at all. but then again I thought cards fans had class, what was I thinking.

 

Come on, he's not trolling.

 

 

On another note, there's a chance the Cards miss the playoffs. Woohoo.

[Larry Horse]

I really don't think there's a realistic chance the Cubs will win the Wildcard.

[neely crenshaw]

i think if there were some magic switch back in the clubhouse, they would have flipped it by now....

[CardsFanInChiTown]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

 

Cubs Postseason Odds: 6.11370

Cards Postseason Odds: 99.34943

 

 

The cubs have a better chance then I thought...

 

 

:wink:

 

wow is this cubs.com? nice one cards troll. Sorry buddy I dont find this massive collapse funny at all. but then again I thought cards fans had class, what was I thinking.

 

Come on, he's not trolling.

 

 

On another note, there's a chance the Cards miss the playoffs. Woohoo.

 

Thanks, since I'm a cards fan sometimes it's hard adding useful information to a tread without coming off like a troll. Truth be told if I had made odds before looking BP i would have put the Cubs chances lower (and the Cards for that matter). Everyone should also keep in mind the Postseason Odds don't take in to account the Cubs pick ups like Lawton and Nomar.

[DCNashville]

Everyone should also keep in mind the Postseason Odds don't take in to account the Cubs pick ups like Lawton and Nomar.

 

Great point. I know this team has been maddeningly inconsistent all season, but they've also played without Nomar, Lawton, and Williamson all year. These three additions, along with the addition of Wood to the pen, make this a very different team.

 

I know we all fear that Dusty will blow this thing, but I still can't believe no one holds out any hope for a team 5 back with almost 60 games to play, 10 of them with the leader.