If There's No Major Upgrade...Can We Win The Wildcard?

[Wheelimus]

The trade deadline is a couple weeks off. I think we all expect Jim Hendry to make a move, but what if we get surprised and there is no move?

 

You'll see by my sig that I'm not a Dusty Baker fan, and my optimism as far as this team goes has wavered, but looking at things realistically, I think we have a good shot, whether we upgrade in LF or not.

 

Prior and Wood being back are huge. Both seem to be getting into the grove, and honestly, when Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, and Carlos Zambrano are on the mound, if your team gives you anything you should have a chance to win.

 

The offense has really came on during our recent streak. I think Hairston and Walker being at the top of the order is huge. The question mark there is Hairston. He's having a cold July, and his June wasn't great. He needs to get on base at a .350 clip minimum. That's what you're at the top of the order for. I'd like to see Walker get his OBP for the month back up there too, but kind of hard to badmouth a guy who has had a hit in every game this month but 2.

 

Lee and Ramirez are just a deadly punch in the lineup, not much else to say about them. Pure All stars. And Jeromy Burnitz has been deadly of late. In fact, the guy has been deadly since the calender turned off of May. Heck, i'd love to see what his season stats are if you remove his horrid May of .226/.281/.340/.621

 

Say what you will about him, but the same goes for Todd Hollandsworth. Since the calender hit June, he's been on fire.

 

Neifi is the weak link right now, that's for sure. Nomar Garciaparra better be back and able to play by August 1st, or we better be giving Cedeno starts NOW.

 

Barrett seems back in it, what scares me with him is all year he's gone hot/cold month to month. Case in point, crappy April, hot March, crappy June, hot July. What he's been doing of late though that he hasn't done all year is take a walk. That's crucial. If he can get on base at a .350 clip through the rest of the year, that's going to be major in the lineup.

 

The bench is the bench. Grieve needs to stay for the rest of the year, if Holla is our everyday LF, Grieve is our lefty bench bat. Sorry Adam, you took one for the team, get healthy, finish up in the minors, see you soon. Macias needs to be cut yesterday. Though he is hitting .357 in July...haha. Ronny needs to go back down if he isn't going to be used. Guess that'll happen August 1st is Nomar comes back. Ditto for Murton. If he's just getting starts against lefties, send the guy down and don't stunt his development. Trade for a replacement on the bench or get Doobie back up here.

 

Already noted that Z, Wood, and Mark need to continue to be awesome. Maddux is Maddux, hopefully the 2nd half thing holds true. Tomorrow is a big day for Jerome. We need a guy in the 5th starter spot who will give us a quality start everytime. Hopefully it's Jerome...

 

The bullpen, well, that's always going to be worth biting your nails I think. Dempster is gold, just start getting him the ball more often, as in, be ahead 1 to 3 runs in the 9th (of course, 10 is better, ha, just make sure and give Dempster enough finish up jobs anyway to keep him sharp). Mitre has settled down into the bullpen it seems. Glendon is having a rough time in the pen. We really need Wuertz to be consistent. Despite giving up a run today I still have faith in Ohman :). Novoa is still a bit of a question mark. And as for Remmy, since the calender hit July, he's been back. If the guy has one last run left in him, this is the time.

 

All in all, as is I think we can win the wild card. I think a change in manager would make that more likely than a change in players, ha, but that's not happening. Honestly, if a move is to be made, I'd like to see an impact player come to the pen than the offense, I think the offense has turned the corner and can handle things.

 

So...what do you think?

[Brian]

A high slugging outfielder would be a plus, but I think a quality back end of the bullpen guy is the one thing we REALLY NEED (if only Hawkins hadn't been wrecked and we had the Farnsworth that is good).

 

The thing that worries me about getting another outfielder, what's to say Dusty is still not going to platoon him with Holla??

Edited July 18, 2005 by Brian

[katway]

Bullpen is a greater priority than hitting outfielder IMO.

[nilodnayr]

should no moves be made our season will depend on how the guys who have come back (wood and prior) and how the guys who will be coming back (nomar and williamson) perform. 3rd in the WC and 5 games back is not insurmountable for a team that has played the majority of their games without two aces and an MVP candidate (according to Gammons :D ).

[Wheelimus]

Well, right now Holla has earned his playing time. I'm fine with him finishing the year out with a .370 OBP each month if he'd like :lol:

 

I'm not going to count on Williamson for too much. Certainly shouldn't bet on him helping out.

 

Nomar will be the big variable here. If he really is back, and at least 90% health wise, that's a huge upgrade.

[Coach C]

Nomar will be the big variable here. If he really is back, and at least 90% health wise, that's a huge upgrade.

 

Same here. The real question is though, which Nomar will we see? The one during Spring Training? Or the one that had a horrible month during April before his injury?

[nilodnayr]

Well, right now Holla has earned his playing time. I'm fine with him finishing the year out with a .370 OBP each month if he'd like :lol:

 

I'm not going to count on Williamson for too much. Certainly shouldn't bet on him helping out.

 

Nomar will be the big variable here. If he really is back, and at least 90% health wise, that's a huge upgrade.

 

Of course to do that in July, he'd have to post an OBP of nearly 500 for the rest of the month. :roll:

 

As much as I appreciate what Holly did in June, that is not the Holly we will most likely see throughout the rest of the year. An upgrade definitely is needed.

[Geech]

We only win the wildcard with this team if everything works out our way. This season and last should have amply demonstrated how poor of a strategy that is.

[nilodnayr]

We only win the wildcard with this team if everything works out our way. This season and last should have amply demonstrated how poor of a strategy that is.

 

I would argue that we lose the wildcard if nothing works out our way...unfortunately nothing worked out our way last year and its shaping up to be no different this year.

[Geech]

I would argue that we lose the wildcard if nothing works out our way

 

That would be a tough argument to make.

[nilodnayr]

I would argue that we lose the wildcard if nothing works out our way

 

That would be a tough argument to make.

 

 

hehehe, i would say looking at the number of prior and woods starts last year and projected starts this year would be a good place to start.

[jjgman21]

I would argue that we lose the wildcard if nothing works out our way

 

That would be a tough argument to make.

 

no it's not. see the title to Badgers thread. that's what this staff is capable of and what we expected to have the entire year the past two years. (well, maybe not that good)

 

I don't think anyone expected everything to go right either year, but we didn't expect things to go as wrong as they did.

 

one correction that I would like to make to Wheelimus's refreshingly optimistic post, Barrett's numbers don't show how well he was hitting in April. it was the unluckiest streak of hitting I ever saw in my life. he's really only had the one bad streak all year, but has come out of it quite nicely.

 

I really wish Dusty would get him out of the 8 hole. the shortstop should be in the 8 hole until (if?) Nomar comes back. and he should play against lefties no matter who's pitching for the Cubs.

[Fred Hornkohl]

The trade deadline is a couple weeks off. I think we all expect Jim Hendry to make a move, but what if we get surprised and there is no move?

 

You'll see by my sig that I'm not a Dusty Baker fan, and my optimism as far as this team goes has wavered, but looking at things realistically, I think we have a good shot, whether we upgrade in LF or not.

 

Prior and Wood being back are huge. Both seem to be getting into the grove, and honestly, when Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, and Carlos Zambrano are on the mound, if your team gives you anything you should have a chance to win.

 

07/08 - 07/17        IP    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   PC  BB/9   K/9  HR/9  WHIP   ERA
Zambrano           15.0   11    4    3   10   11    1  215  6.00  6.60  0.60  1.40  1.80
Wood               13.7    8    3    3    1    9    2  179  0.66  5.93  1.32  0.66  1.98
Prior               8.0    2    1    0    3   10    0  115  3.38 11.25  0.00  0.63  0.00
Maddux             16.0    9    3    2    1    9    1  289  0.56  5.06  0.56  0.63  1.13

 

The offense has really came on during our recent streak. I think Hairston and Walker being at the top of the order is huge. The question mark there is Hairston. He's having a cold July, and his June wasn't great. He needs to get on base at a .350 clip minimum. That's what you're at the top of the order for. I'd like to see Walker get his OBP for the month back up there too, but kind of hard to badmouth a guy who has had a hit in every game this month but 2.

 

Hairston       AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  TB RBI  BB  SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS
04/04 - 06/10 152  24  41  11   0   1  55   6  17  20  0.270  0.369  0.362  0.731
06/11 - 07/03  33   4  10   2   1   2  20   4   0   4  0.303  0.324  0.606  0.930
07/04 - 07/17  41   5   9   2   0   1  14   7   4   6  0.220  0.289  0.341  0.630

Overall       226  33  60  15   1   4  89  17  21  30  0.265  0.349  0.394  0.743

 

Walker         AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  TB RBI  BB  SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS
04/04 - 04/10  21   3   8   2   0   0  10   3   2   0  0.381  0.435  0.476  0.911
05/25 - 06/08  42   4   8   3   1   2  19   4   4   6  0.190  0.261  0.452  0.713
06/09 - 06/29  53   8  21   4   1   0  27   6   4   4  0.396  0.431  0.509  0.940
06/30 - 07/07  28   2   5   1   0   0   6   0   2   5  0.179  0.233  0.214  0.448
07/08 - 07/17  30   8  11   3   0   2  20   6   3   4  0.367  0.424  0.667  1.091

Overall       174  25  53  13   2   4  82  19  15  19  0.305  0.358  0.471  0.829

 

Lee and Ramirez are just a deadly punch in the lineup, not much else to say about them. Pure All stars. And Jeromy Burnitz has been deadly of late. In fact, the guy has been deadly since the calender turned off of May. Heck, i'd love to see what his season stats are if you remove his horrid May of .226/.281/.340/.621

 

Burnitz        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  TB RBI  BB  SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS
04/04 - 05/01  92  15  28   7   2   5  54  17   6  20  0.304  0.337  0.587  0.924
05/02 - 06/01 106  11  23   3   0   3  35  13   8  16  0.217  0.272  0.330  0.602
06/02 - 06/22  73  16  27   7   0   4  46  12   7  12  0.370  0.425  0.630  1.055
06/23 - 07/09  52   8  11   2   0   2  19   5  11   9  0.212  0.349  0.365  0.715
07/10 - 07/17  18   4   7   2   0   1  12   3   4   2  0.389  0.500  0.667  1.167

Overall       341  54  96  21   2  15 166  50  36  59  0.282  0.347  0.487  0.834

 

Say what you will about him, but the same goes for Todd Hollandsworth. Since the calender hit June, he's been on fire.

 

Hollandsworth  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  TB RBI  BB  SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS
04/04 - 05/31 104   3  21   5   1   1  31   9  10  26  0.202  0.278  0.298  0.576
06/01 - 07/08  97  14  35   8   1   4  57  20   4  10  0.361  0.379  0.588  0.966
07/09 - 07/17  13   2   3   0   0   0   3   0   2   2  0.231  0.333  0.231  0.564

Overall       214  19  59  13   2   5  91  29  16  38  0.276  0.326  0.425  0.751

 

Neifi is the weak link right now, that's for sure. Nomar Garciaparra better be back and able to play by August 1st, or we better be giving Cedeno starts NOW.

 

Perez          AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  TB RBI  BB  SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS
04/04 - 04/30  68  11  25   2   1   3  38  12   3   7  0.368  0.403  0.559  0.962
05/01 - 05/15  50   4   7   2   0   1  12   2   2   5  0.140  0.170  0.240  0.410
05/17 - 06/05  83  11  33   5   0   3  47  12   1   5  0.398  0.407  0.566  0.973
06/06 - 07/09 121   8  18   3   0   0  21   4   3  14  0.149  0.175  0.174  0.348
07/10 - 07/17  17   4   8   3   0   0  11   4   0   0  0.471  0.471  0.647  1.118

Overall       339  38  91  15   1   7 129  34   9  31  0.268  0.291  0.381  0.671

 

Barrett seems back in it, what scares me with him is all year he's gone hot/cold month to month. Case in point, crappy April, hot March, crappy June, hot July. What he's been doing of late though that he hasn't done all year is take a walk. That's crucial. If he can get on base at a .350 clip through the rest of the year, that's going to be major in the lineup.

 

Barrett        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  TB RBI  BB  SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS
04/04 - 04/24  54   3   9   2   0   2  17   6   2   5  0.167  0.207  0.315  0.522
04/25 - 06/10 113  15  42  10   1   5  69  22   5  11  0.372  0.408  0.611  1.019
06/11 - 07/04  59   4   7   2   0   2  15   8   4  10  0.119  0.172  0.254  0.426
07/05 - 07/17  20   6   8   1   0   0   9   3   9   3  0.400  0.600  0.450  1.050

Overall       246  28  66  15   1   9 110  39  20  29  0.268  0.331  0.447  0.778

 

The bench is the bench. Grieve needs to stay for the rest of the year, if Holla is our everyday LF, Grieve is our lefty bench bat. Sorry Adam, you took one for the team, get healthy, finish up in the minors, see you soon. Macias needs to be cut yesterday. Though he is hitting .357 in July...haha. Ronny needs to go back down if he isn't going to be used. Guess that'll happen August 1st is Nomar comes back. Ditto for Murton. If he's just getting starts against lefties, send the guy down and don't stunt his development. Trade for a replacement on the bench or get Doobie back up here.

 

Macias         AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  TB RBI  BB  SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS
04/04 - 04/26  18   1   2   1   0   0   3   0   2   0  0.111  0.200  0.167  0.367
04/27 - 05/25  25   1  10   1   0   0  11   3   0   2  0.400  0.385  0.440  0.825
05/26 - 07/17  37   3  11   4   0   0  15   2   0   7  0.297  0.297  0.405  0.703

Overall        80   5  23   6   0   0  29   5   2   9  0.288  0.301  0.363  0.664

 

Already noted that Z, Wood, and Mark need to continue to be awesome. Maddux is Maddux, hopefully the 2nd half thing holds true. Tomorrow is a big day for Jerome. We need a guy in the 5th starter spot who will give us a quality start everytime. Hopefully it's Jerome...

 

The bullpen, well, that's always going to be worth biting your nails I think. Dempster is gold, just start getting him the ball more often, as in, be ahead 1 to 3 runs in the 9th (of course, 10 is better, ha, just make sure and give Dempster enough finish up jobs anyway to keep him sharp). Mitre has settled down into the bullpen it seems. Glendon is having a rough time in the pen. We really need Wuertz to be consistent. Despite giving up a run today I still have faith in Ohman :). Novoa is still a bit of a question mark. And as for Remmy, since the calender hit July, he's been back. If the guy has one last run left in him, this is the time.

 

07/08 - 07/17        IP    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   PC  BB/9   K/9  HR/9  WHIP   ERA
Dempster            2.0    1    0    0    1    2    0   35  4.50  9.00  0.00  1.00  0.00
Mitre               0.7    2    0    0    0    0    0    9  0.00  0.00  0.00  3.00  0.00
Novoa               2.0    0    0    0    0    1    0   16  0.00  4.50  0.00  0.00  0.00
Ohman               0.7    1    1    1    0    0    0    9  0.00  0.00  0.00  1.50 13.50
Remlinger           2.0    0    0    0    1    0    0   23  4.50  0.00  0.00  0.50  0.00
Rusch               2.0    3    2    2    0    2    1   36  0.00  9.00  4.50  1.50  9.00
Wuertz              1.0    2    3    3    3    0    1   28 27.00  0.00  9.00  5.00 27.00

 

All in all, as is I think we can win the wild card. I think a change in manager would make that more likely than a change in players, ha, but that's not happening. Honestly, if a move is to be made, I'd like to see an impact player come to the pen than the offense, I think the offense has turned the corner and can handle things.

 

So...what do you think?

 

Wheelimus, I pretty much agree with your assessment. I took the liberty of inserting these blocks of data into your original post. Many times, searching for trends with data that is tied to calendar months can produce results that are misleading. Thanx for a well thought out and articulated post.

[Jazz]

For the team to win this wildcard without outside help would require

 

-Walker and Hairston to get on base regularly

-The middle of the order to keep hitting how they have been

-Cedeno getting more atbats, or a Nomar Return before its too late, basically as little Perez as possible

-The Pitching to get real hot, and i think past numbers will say they will (if healthy)

-the bullpen to shape up, which i dont think it will without better managing, or another arm

-and finally, either baker not being baker, or someone else on the bench calling the shots

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

This is one of the toughest teams to figure out. We just way too damn streaky.

 

During our winning streaks, it is so easy to think we have everything we need. We've also had two seven game losing streaks which make me believe there isn't even one move that would significantly help.

 

If we can play consistently like the team that's playing right now, sure we can get the WC without any significant moves...especially if Nomar will be back in August.

 

On the other hand, I have little confidence that we can continue to do that.

[wastra]

I'd have to say that without help, we won't win the WC.

 

 

It's great to look at how we've played the past 2 series, but in all honesty, that's just a symptom of the entire season- two weeks of great ball, two weeks of bad ball.

 

The bottom line is that we're going with a weak bench (the better bench players won't play anyway), a wildly unproven and inconsistant bullpen, and a streaky outfield all around.

 

I think to help even out those streaks, we'll need one more bat and at least one solid setup man.

[neely crenshaw]

they that nomar has been running(even bases) and hitting/fielding. they are hoping for a mid august comeback. he could provide the type of lift this team will need, both offensively and spirit-wise. i am less sure of williamson's impatc, we should all know the downfall of believing in pitchers coming back from arm surgery. i have no doubt he can help it just maybe a little while longer until he is 100%. i also hold out hope that cory could return and be the corey of last year. that would not be bad as long as hairston and walker are left 1-2. he certainly helps on d.i am certainly intrigued by a lineup of

hairston lf

walker 2b

dlee 1b

aram 3b

burnitz rf

nomar ss

patterson cf

barrett c

this would allow hendry to grab some bullpen help.

[Wheelimus]

Thanks for the in depth stats Fred!

 

And while I'm with everyone here literally begging Jim Hendry to add an impact bat in left field and someone to set the table for Ryan Dempster, I think we need to respect the changes that have already happened. For the rest of the year (unless while in Iowa a secret brain transplant between Brock and Patterson happens) 1 & 2 in the order should be Hairston->Walker. Hell, print Dusty up lineup cards with that already typed. He can cross the name out if he needs to give either a rest day :lol:

 

Just imagine where our season might be if DLee had come up with runners on base more often in the first half.

 

Holla is a weak link too it appears, damn, I wasn't aware how weak he'd gone of late, heh, blue colored glasses I suppose. Hopefully he broke out of it in the Pittsburgh series, because we're going to need him to produce if no upgrade happens.

 

Here's a random thought, are there any teams with a need at Starting Pitcher bad enough that Glendon Rusch would be appealing, who could return us a quality reliever? Just dying for someone to set the table for Ryan, because with our rotation, we should only be worrying about someone for the 6th and 7th once each trip through said rotation.

[gflore34]

I believe the Cubs can win the WC with their current make-up, the key is maintaining the rotation for the remainder of the season. A healthy trio Prior, Wood and Zambrano is very capable of winning 40 or more, second half games, this alone, represents something that only one other WC contender can match - Florida (Beckett, Burnett and Willis). Another key is finding someone to effectively bridge the gap between the starters and Dempster, be it Wuertz, Wellmeyer, Novoa, Ohlman or Remlinger, all are capable, someone has to step forward.

 

I also believe they'll score enough runs, finally, after 84 or so, games, Baker figured out his best 1-2 combination was Hairston and Walker. It’s no coincidence that once they were inserted into the 1 and 2 slots the Cubs started to show some offensive consistency.

 

A healthy rotation plus someone to take care of the 8th inning and the Cubs have what it takes to make the playoffs - pitching, pitching and more pitching.

 

 

By the way, I was on vaction for a week and have yet to look thru the Posts but, did anyone catch the Sun-Times article stating Patterson found his problem? Apparently, Patterson found, after watching flim, his long swing to be sole problem. The article goes further on to state once Patterson observed this he quit watching film. So, a shorter swing is going to improve his pitch selection? It'll allow him to get to those outside breaking balls in the dirt? And those fastballs over his head?

[JC]

I agree with Wastra. The Cubs will need some help to win the WC.

 

If a fan of another team told me that they would win a playoff spot with Hollandsworth/Hairston/Burnitz in the OF, I'd laugh them out of the room.

 

Beating up on the Pirates and a faultering Marlins' squad doesn't give me confidence that our dear Cubs have turned a corner. They need to play upper echelon teams tougher, more consistantly, before I will honestly believe the WC is in sight.

[jjgman21]

I agree with Wastra. The Cubs will need some help to win the WC.

 

If a fan of another team told me that they would win a playoff spot with Hollandsworth/Hairston/Burnitz in the OF, I'd laugh them out of the room.

 

Beating up on the Pirates and a faultering Marlins' squad doesn't give me confidence that our dear Cubs have turned a corner. They need to play upper echelon teams tougher, more consistantly, before I will honestly believe the WC is in sight.

 

 

I heard alot of this at the end of May before the Cubs went to the west coast. back then, the Dodgers were considered an upper echelon team. we swept them, and a couple weeks later, we stopped counting them as one of the good teams.

 

now the same thing is happening all over again. two weeks ago, many here would have considered the Marlins an upper echelon team. they had won 10 of 15 entering the Cubs series. we sweep them, and all of a sudden they are considered not so good.

 

whether a team is upper echelon or not and how we play against them is too fluid to use as a measure of how good the Cubs have/can play. plus, by most definitions, there aren't any upper echelon teams left on the Cubs schedule besides quite a few games against the Cards and a Braves series.

 

unless by the time we play the Dodgers, Astros and Marlins again, they'll be back up to upper echelon status? I guess what I am saying is there is alot of discounting how good a team is when we beat them, and alot of inflating a team when we lose to them.

[Wheelimus]

Honestly, wins are wins, and we need to win 5 more than anyone else in the wild card standing list. That's all I care about :D

 

But lets make that 10 to be safe...

[TheDude]

I really don't think the Cubs need to make a move to charge after the wildcard. The reason isn't because there is a need for a move (because there is in LF), but because I don't believe a solid enough impact player is out there to justify the move.

 

And I don't believe in trading for bullpen help. It has been shown time and again in the major leagues that there is a small elite list of "proven" closers who likely aren't going anywhere, and there is a long list of one or two year wonders and enigmas.

 

This team already signed elite bullpen help over the last few years when Remlinger and Hawkins were signed. At the time of their signing, everybody loved the moves, because these guys had been rock solid (perhaps in the top 5) relief guys in MLB for the previous years.

 

Meanwhile some of the finest bullpen guys in the game this year are names only hardcore fans know, and they aren't names most would have predicted to be so dominant (Duchscherer, Carrasco, Cotts, Miller, Betancourt, etc.).

[EricG]

what's the status of Scott Williamson? Would be like a deadline deal if he comes back in August.

EDIT: status in injury update thread

Edited July 18, 2005 by EricG

[CubinNY]

I agree with Wastra. The Cubs will need some help to win the WC.

 

If a fan of another team told me that they would win a playoff spot with Hollandsworth/Hairston/Burnitz in the OF, I'd laugh them out of the room.

 

Beating up on the Pirates and a faultering Marlins' squad doesn't give me confidence that our dear Cubs have turned a corner. They need to play upper echelon teams tougher, more consistantly, before I will honestly believe the WC is in sight.

 

 

I heard alot of this at the end of May before the Cubs went to the west coast. back then, the Dodgers were considered an upper echelon team. we swept them, and a couple weeks later, we stopped counting them as one of the good teams.

 

now the same thing is happening all over again. two weeks ago, many here would have considered the Marlins an upper echelon team. they had won 10 of 15 entering the Cubs series. we sweep them, and all of a sudden they are considered not so good.

 

whether a team is upper echelon or not and how we play against them is too fluid to use as a measure of how good the Cubs have/can play. plus, by most definitions, there aren't any upper echelon teams left on the Cubs schedule besides quite a few games against the Cards and a Braves series.

 

unless by the time we play the Dodgers, Astros and Marlins again, they'll be back up to upper echelon status? I guess what I am saying is there is alot of discounting how good a team is when we beat them, and alot of inflating a team when we lose to them.

 

The Cubs are 13-18 against .500 and > teams in the NL*. That is not so good. They can beat up the Pittsburgh and Dodgers of this year, that doesn't make them good, only medicore.

 

Note: I didn't include Bos, NY, or the W. Sox (if I had the numbers would be much worse)