Bruce Levine Thinks NL Wild Card May Turn on Dunn Deal

[burnt out cubbie fan]

Why third? Sandwich him between Lee and Ramirez because Dusto likes those Lefty righty matchups

 

Hairston Jr. RH

Walker LH

Lee RH

Dunn LH

Ramirez RH

Burnitz LH

Barrett RH

Neifi SH

Pitcher

Because that way Dunn can walk all he wants and can be knocked in by all of Lee's and ARam's homers.

[rocket]

Walks vs. hits are immaterial.

 

LOL!

 

what's so funny

[Roast]

Deleted by Roast. Bad choice of words. Edited July 15, 2005 by Roast

[ThePenguin11]

Walks vs. hits are immaterial.

 

LOL!

 

what's so funny

 

I'm not sure what the comparison was but two-base, three-base and four-base hits are all better then walks. Singles still edge out walks because they can score a base runner from second, third and sometimes first. Like when Hector Villanueva hits a gapper and Dunston's on first.

[Geech]

But that's still secondary to not making an out. Dunn is good at not making an out.

[ThePenguin11]

But that's still secondary to not making an out. Dunn is good at not making an out.

 

This is true.

 

Hit>Walk>Out>Double Play

[rocket]

Walks vs. hits are immaterial.

 

LOL!

 

what's so funny

 

I'm not sure what the comparison was but two-base, three-base and four-base hits are all better then walks. Singles still edge out walks because they can score a base runner from second, third and sometimes first. Like when Hector Villanueva hits a gapper and Dunston's on first.

 

Dunn's SLG% suggests that 2-base, 3-base, and 4-base hits aren't a problem for him though.

[ThePenguin11]

But that's still secondary to not making an out. Dunn is good at not making an out.

 

This is true.

 

Hit>Walk>Out>Double Play

 

There's probably room for a sacrifice fly in there, but my brain hurts from all this math!!!!!!!!!

[ThePenguin11]

Walks vs. hits are immaterial.

 

LOL!

 

what's so funny

 

I'm not sure what the comparison was but two-base, three-base and four-base hits are all better then walks. Singles still edge out walks because they can score a base runner from second, third and sometimes first. Like when Hector Villanueva hits a gapper and Dunston's on first.

 

Dunn's SLG% suggests that 2-base, 3-base, and 4-base hits aren't a problem for him though.

 

Yes doctor, I concur.

[Guest]

Despite the rantings of saber types everywhere, batting average counts. There's a reason we used to say "a walk's as good as a hit" when the pathetic kid came up to bat. A walk is generally not as good as a hit. Sure, making the pitcher throw additional pitches is helpful. Dunn doesn't hit for a good average and he is traditionally even worse in that regard with runners on base.

It's true that hits are generally more important than hits. (In this case "hits" refers strictly to singles. Extra-base hits are obviously more valuable than a walk, but I don't think anyone in his/her right mind would argue that Dunn's ability to generate XBH is a problem.) Of course, generally doesn't mean always. Case in point; When no one is on base a walk is actually worth slightly more than a single, as there is no possiblity for an out to occur on the play. (A single can still result in an out due to a baserunning error.)

 

Remember that there are two main components to scoring runs; getting on base an moving runners along. The relative importance of those components depends on the run environment, but in a relatively high-scoring era such as today it is extremely important to conserve outs. This is particularly true in the Cubs case as they have multiple players with the power to move runners along but are fairly deficient in their ability to conserve outs. In short, Dunn would be an ideal acquisition for the Cubs as he does both extremely well.

 

That being said, there are limits as to what I'd give up to get him. Since still hope the Cubs will compete this season I wouldn't give up any of our key MLB players, nor would I give up Pie. Other than that, I'd be willing to give up a few good prospects in return for Dunn.

[CubsWin]

The Braves are going to win the East and Washington isn't going to make the playoffs.

At first glance, I thought the same thing, but something tells me that the Braves are going to have a very difficult 2nd half. Call it a hunch...

[sonicdethmonkey0]

The Braves are going to win the East and Washington isn't going to make the playoffs.

At first glance, I thought the same thing, but something tells me that the Braves are going to have a very difficult 2nd half. Call it a hunch...

 

i'll bet you a million invisible dollars that washington is not in first place by august 14

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Why third? Sandwich him between Lee and Ramirez because Dusto likes those Lefty righty matchups

 

Hairston Jr. RH

Walker LH

Lee RH

Dunn LH

Ramirez RH

Burnitz LH

Barrett RH

Neifi SH

Pitcher

 

That's the line-up I'd use...but Raw's is nice too.

[FloridaCubbie]

I refuse to get excited over anything Levine says.

[cheapseats]

I refuse to get excited over anything Levine says.

 

How often has he been wrong?

 

He was first to report the Farnsworth trade, the Sosa trade, the Nomar trade, the Burnitz signing, the Corey Patterson demotion, the Ozzie Guillen contract extension (a week before the White Sox announced it), the Enrique Wilson signing :roll:

 

A lot of guys got worked up in late May IIRC when he reported that a big trade was possible. The trade didn't happen, but not because Levine was making it up. Hendry was talking to the Mets and Marlins about a trade that would have involved Latroy and a Cubs hitter. Hendry decided to do a smaller deal (in terms of number of players, anyway) with the Giants. I'm pretty happy with how it turned out.

 

I haven't been listening to ESPN1000 for a long time, but since I have been listening, I've come to know that Levine gets the stories first. I don't agree with his views on baseball very often - he defends Dusty too often and is in love with Corey's potential - but I've never heard him report conjecture as fact. Perhaps you have an example?

[Roast]

but I've never heard him report conjecture as fact. Perhaps you have an example?

 

Infact, we do.

 

Earlier this season he came on air and reported "Hendry is finalizing a major trade. It will be completed in two days."

[NorthsideAvenger]

but I've never heard him report conjecture as fact. Perhaps you have an example?

 

Infact, we do.

 

Earlier this season he came on air and reported "Hendry is finalizing a major trade. It will be completed in two days."

 

If you fell for that line, that you deserve to be made a fool out of. NOTHING is finalize until a deal is announce. Just because some reporter said "a trade will completed in two days" doesn't mean it will happen, and that it is still speculation.

[NorthsideAvenger]

Found this little tidbit over at redlegnation.com, so I don't know how much validity it has, but should be intersting chat.

 

OB is actively shopping Dunn to Cubs, Cardinals, and Astros. He has made all of them aware that he will trade Dunn within the division, apparently in an effort to drive the price up. Kearns will stay in the minors until the trade is consummated.

 

If this is true, this may actually be a smart thing for O'Brien to do. Play off the fear that one of these teams may get him, thus increase a bidding war. But as a Cubs fan, I would be learly of entering a bidding war for Dunn. I like Dunn, and I do feel the Cubs have more "bullets" to trade for Dunn then Astros, and the Cards. I would hate for Dunn to end up behind Rolen and Pujols in St. Louis, or Berkman and Ensberg in Houston, when he could look just as good behind Aram and Lee.

 

Nonetheless, should be an interesting couple of weeks of speculation.

[CubsWin]

Found this little tidbit over at redlegnation.com, so I don't know how much validity it has, but should be intersting chat.

 

OB is actively shopping Dunn to Cubs, Cardinals, and Astros. He has made all of them aware that he will trade Dunn within the division, apparently in an effort to drive the price up. Kearns will stay in the minors until the trade is consummated.

 

If this is true, this may actually be a smart thing for O'Brien to do. Play off the fear that one of these teams may get him, thus increase a bidding war. But as a Cubs fan, I would be learly of entering a bidding war for Dunn.

If it is accurate that O'Brien is trying to trade Dunn within the division, then I would be leery of not getting into a bidding war.

[CubsWin]

I would make it priority number 1 to acquire Dunn and David Weathers from the Reds. Dunn's Ks and defensive liability would not have me give up someone like Pie to get him and, if possible, I would like to hang onto Hill, Marshall, Pinto, Pawelek, EPatt and Cedeno, just because middle IFers and LHPs are so hard to find, but I would give up just about anybody else in the minor league organization.

 

If some combination of Murton, Dubois, Patterson, Greenburg, Mitre, Rusch, Wellemeyer, Soto, Koronka, Leicester, Bartosh, Van Buren, Lewis, Fontenot, Sing, McGehee, Craig, Nolasco, Ryu, Shipman, Connolly, Moore, Dopirak, Richie, Fox, Petrick, Wylie, G. Johnson, Montanez, Fuld, Harvey, Gallagher and others can get the job done, I say do it. If they want Jerome Williams, I'd likely say yes, but I would pull back names like Gallagher, Harvey, Moore, Dopirak, Van Buren, Soto and Petrick.

 

A package of Williams, Murton, Wellemeyer and Sing or Murton, Gallagher, Nolasco and Moore should certainly get the job done. Or am I miscalculating what the Reds are going to get in return from teams like the Cards and Astros?

[burnt out cubbie fan]

I would rather hold on to Moore, at this point, than Pinto or EPatt.

[CubsWin]

I would rather hold on to Moore, at this point, than Pinto or EPatt.

Even with Ramirez locked up for several years and performing at an all-star caliber level? Moore was drafted as a SS, but hasn't played there regularly in a long time. The Cubs future at 2B is much less certain than their future at 3B. Thats why I think keeping EPatt is a good idea. He also has shown the ability to get on base which the Cubs could use right now.

 

Pinto is a lefty that can get it up there above 90 mph. He might be the only Cubs lefty that can do that now that Sisco is gone besides Pawelek who is several years away. Both Hill and Marshall rely on their curve. Pinto is dominating AA at the moment, plus the Cubs have enough attractive right-handed pitchers to where the lefties shouldn't be missed.

[NorthsideAvenger]

If it is accurate that O'Brien is trying to trade Dunn within the division, then I would be leery of not getting into a bidding war.

 

I'm torn on getting Dunn. Dunn is a borderline FRANCHISE player, and Hendry would have to do his homework on the kid. If Dunn ever learned to go the opposite field, his average would go up. If Dunn ever decides that a .280/.430/.600/.980(which I can see him doing with the proper motivation) is more impressive then a .240/.380/.550/.935 then yeah he be worth the prospects and the money it is going to take to acquire him. But the problem I see with Dunn, is that he is content on being merely good, instead of being GREAT. And that separates Dunn from the TRUELY greats of the game like ARod, Vlad, and Pujols.

[Guest]

If Dunn ever decides that a .280/.430/.600/.980(which I can see him doing with the proper motivation) is more impressive then a .240/.380/.550/.935 then yeah he be worth the prospects and the money it is going to take to acquire him. But the problem I see with Dunn, is that he is content on being merely good, instead of being GREAT.

If I'm reading the above quote correctly, it seems as though you are saying that Dunn could easily improve every facet of his game if he wanted to. May I ask why you think Dunn is trying to underachieve?

[RynoRules]

Personally, I think it will be LA. They have lots of money and an excellent farm system, especially their AA team. If all the deals are equal, why not trade outside the division?

 

Agreed - he makes "Moneyball" sense w/ his walks and HRs.