Cubs Pre-Offseason Mega Thread

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

A bat to ball/contact hitter who gets on base at a high clip would play well in a stadium where the wind is blowing in on any given night. 
 

He’s more of a Happ replacement than a Suzuki replacement. There’s no Suzuki replacement available.

I just can’t get to excited about trading assets for one year of a 110 wRC+ bat. He is a solid player and as Jason said, sure they should look at him. But I do question why the Guardians, whose biggest issue was that they couldn’t score runs, would trade him, unless they got a good deal back for him. He is fine, but I wouldn’t want to give as much as it will probably take to get him back. I might just ride with Shaw and see if he gives that 110 wRC+ bat we are looking for in Kwan. 

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Nolo said:

How are we feeling about Trevor Rogers? The more I watch his highlight reels, the more I like him. I don't think he's the ace we need, but he's definitely a very solid #2-3 anchor.

I like him, but he isn’t going to be cheap. And he comes with losing draft picks. Wouldn’t be surprised if he get at least 4 years and probably an average of $25M or more a year. Which, if the Cubs like him and that’s what it takes fine. But just pointing out he won’t be cheap. 

[Geographyhater8888]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

He is fine, but I wouldn’t want to give as much as it will probably take to get him back. I might just ride with Shaw and see if he gives that 110 wRC+ bat we are looking for in Kwan. 

That’s a fair counterpoint and one I agree with. But someone who can get on base at a 350+ clip and be a potential run in front of Bregman and or PCA, if moved down, is an intriguing thought. Without Suzuki he’s less of an asset however.

Edited 5 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Nolo]

58 minutes ago, JBears79 said:

I think Kwan is definitely someone Jed will kick the tires on. He fits his defensive minded profile and is a cheap bridge guy from Happ to whoever comes next. 

Josiah Hartshorn 2028

[Jason Ross]

12 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

A bat to ball/contact hitter who gets on base at a high clip would play well in a stadium where the wind is blowing in on any given night. 
 

He’s more of a Happ replacement than a Suzuki replacement. There’s no Suzuki replacement available.

We're moving goalposts now. The original comment was "diversity". Now it's "Wrigley Field's winds". Wrigley Field was 8th in HR factor last year; lots of people hit bombs there. The idea we need another "guy who just hits the ball" just doesn't match reality here.

Again, I'm not saying yes or no to Kwan here but the arguments aren't matching the reality. The Cubs have guys like Kwan already. They don't play in Safeco. Kwan might fight but both of these arguments are not the correct arguments, IMO.

[Nolo]

 

1 minute ago, Jason Ross said:

We're moving goalposts now. The original comment was "diversity". Now it's "Wrigley Field's winds". Wrigley Field was 8th in HR factor last year; lots of people hit bombs there. The idea we need another "guy who just hits the ball" just doesn't match reality here.

Again, I'm not saying yes or no to Kwan here but the arguments aren't matching the reality. The Cubs have guys like Kwan already. They don't play in Safeco. Kwan might fight but both of these arguments are not the correct arguments, IMO.

Wrigley winds and HR factor is extremely inconsistent, the two years before last year, it was in the 20-30th place range in HR factor. 

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, Nolo said:

How are we feeling about Trevor Rogers? The more I watch his highlight reels, the more I like him. I don't think he's the ace we need, but he's definitely a very solid #2-3 anchor.

He's probably the 2nd best pitcher on the market.  He's closer to Ranger Suarez than Dylan Cease, which is a bit of an indictment of this FA class, but he's good and I think the only non-Skubal arm that warrants a 9 figure contract.

He will have the qualifying offer, which is not a dealbreaker but is a major consideration.

[Geographyhater8888]

9 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

We're moving goalposts now. The original comment was "diversity". Now it's "Wrigley Field's winds". Wrigley Field was 8th in HR factor last year; lots of people hit bombs there. The idea we need another "guy who just hits the ball" just doesn't match reality here.

Again, I'm not saying yes or no to Kwan here but the arguments aren't matching the reality. The Cubs have guys like Kwan already. They don't play in Safeco. Kwan might fight but both of these arguments are not the correct arguments, IMO.

It’s fickle from year to year and game to game. The 1 year park factor was 87 in 2024. A guy who gets on a base at a high clip who isn’t reliant on slug in front of Bregman and Suzuki is an intriguing thought.. Unfortunately Suzuki won’t be a Cub so his profile isn’t as attractive outside of his rate stats. 

Edited 5 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, Nolo said:

 

Wrigley winds and HR factor is extremely inconsistent, the two years before last year, it was in the 20-30th place range in HR factor. 

It does twist and change. But neither you nor I can predict the winds next year. I wouldn't trade assets the team doesn't really have for a one-year player making that bet. 

Kwan is a fine player, don't get me wrong. But my greater point is we need to stop shoe-horning arguments in. He's a hitter you can reasonably expect to put up a ~100-110 wRC+ with plus defense in LF for one year. Let's just treat him like that instead of deciding we need him for "X" reason. 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Geographyhater8888 said:

It’s fickle from year to year and game to game. The 1 year park factor was 87 in 2024. A guy who gets on a base at a high clip in front of Bregman and Suzuki is an intriguing thought.. Unfortunately Suzuki won’t be a Cub so his profile isn’t as attractive outside of his rate stats. 

That I understand; but that should be your original argument. I really don't want to play meteorologist in October for what the weather might look like in June 2027. I'm not even sure it's going to rain this week.

[Nolo]

1 minute ago, Jason Ross said:

It does twist and change. But neither you nor I can predict the winds next year. I wouldn't trade assets the team doesn't really have for a one-year player making that bet. 

Kwan is a fine player, don't get me wrong. But my greater point is we need to stop shoe-horning arguments in. He's a hitter you can reasonably expect to put up a ~100-110 wRC+ with plus defense in LF for one year. Let's just treat him like that instead of deciding we need him for "X" reason. 

Oh I wasn't really commenting about Kwan specifically, was just saying some years Wrigley is extremely hitter friendly, and some years it's extremely pitcher friendly, and its unpredictable. IMO that's why diversity in the lineup is important.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Nolo said:

Oh I wasn't really commenting about Kwan specifically, was just saying some years Wrigley is extremely hitter friendly, and some years it's extremely pitcher friendly, and its unpredictable. IMO that's why diversity in the lineup is important.

Oh I don't disagree. Diversity is nice! But Kwan is basically Hoerner already so I'm just not sure there's a need for more or less of that right now. He's kind of a lot like the rest of the lineup; lots of contact. He's a fine hitter, I'd just rather evaluate him on that merit. 

[Jason Ross]

Nothing unexpected but the offseason has officially begun.

[Geographyhater8888]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

That I understand; but that should be your original argument. I really don't want to play meteorologist in October for what the weather might look like in June 2027. I'm not even sure it's going to rain this week.

Some days Wrigley is neutral, some days it’s like Coors, some days it’s like T Mobile. Bat to ball skills don’t discriminate against weather patterns and he’d help on those T Mobile park days. If Wrigley is hitter neutral or friendly in all 81 home games then it’ll be a first. But it’s irrelevant without his high OBP, which is the best part of his game. 
 

The optics of giving up assets for him and if his profile would be as impactful when you subtract Suzuki from the lineup is another discussion. 

[Nolo]

Michael King just declined his player option 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Geographyhater8888 said:

Some days Wrigley is neutral, some days it’s like Coors, some days it’s like T Mobile. Bat to ball skills don’t discriminate against weather patterns and he’d help on those T Mobile park days. If Wrigley is hitter neutral or friendly in all 81 home games then it’ll be a first. But it’s irrelevant without his high OBP, which is the best part of his game. 
 

The optics of giving up assets for him and if his profile would be as impactful when you subtract Suzuki from the lineup is another discussion. 

He's a good hitter but he's not going to be free. The Cubs have a lot to do this offseason. There will be many options and I'm not entirely sure Kwan is my guy here. A good reminder, he's a year removed from a 98w RC+ year. The issue with low-home run hitters is also this: they're entirely BABIP driven. They're far more hit by luck. So we can "bat to ball skills don't discriminate" all we want, but we can't ignore the inverse; we literally just saw this happen with Hoerner. When luck doesn't like these types, they have little in the way of recourse.

[Rcal10]

21 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

That’s a fair counterpoint and one I agree with. But someone who can get on base at a 350+ clip and be a potential run in front of Bregman and or PCA, if moved down, is an intriguing thought. Without Suzuki he’s less of an asset however.

You said, yourself, a wRC+ 110-115 hitter is an asset to the team. However, Cubs had one the last 7 years who fans continually got on. How is Kwan’s 110-115 any better than Happ’s, if it doesn’t matter how they got to that number? And why do we need a slap hitter if all 110-115 wRC+ are equal? Why not let Shaw play left and bring back Conforto. He would cost less in salary and nothing in trade. 

[Geographyhater8888]

7 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

You said, yourself, a wRC+ 110-115 hitter is an asset to the team. However, Cubs had one the last 7 years who fans continually got on. How is Kwan’s 110-115 any better than Happ’s, if it doesn’t matter how they got to that number? And why do we need a slap hitter if all 110-115 wRC+ are equal? Why not let Shaw play left and bring back Conforto. He would cost less in salary and nothing in trade. 

Because Happ is 32, coming off of his worst offensive season since 2021 with a 108, had the highest K rate of his career and can’t hit left handed pitching. Trading assets for Kwan is the possible deal breaker which I established. 

Edited 4 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

11 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Nothing unexpected but the offseason has officially begun.

I know most posters have suggested Holmes and Peterson coming back. But what if Peterson @ 3/$40M is instead Boyd 1/$13M and a mutual option the next year? If they signed Skubal and Holmes as their top 2, would Boyd as a 3rd be that bad? For 1 or 2 years? Am I way off here, or will Boyd and Peterson get close to the same annual salary? 

[Geographyhater8888]

8 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

He's a good hitter but he's not going to be free. The Cubs have a lot to do this offseason. There will be many options and I'm not entirely sure Kwan is my guy here. A good reminder, he's a year removed from a 98w RC+ year. The issue with low-home run hitters is also this: they're entirely BABIP driven. They're far more hit by luck. So we can "bat to ball skills don't discriminate" all we want, but we can't ignore the inverse; we literally just saw this happen with Hoerner. When luck doesn't like these types, they have little in the way of recourse.

Those are all fair points. Maybe Milwaukee has poisoned my brain from grounding their way into the second highest scoring offense. 

[Nolo]

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

would Boyd as a 3rd be that bad

Yes. 

[Jason Ross]

11 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I know most posters have suggested Holmes and Peterson coming back. But what if Peterson @ 3/$40M is instead Boyd 1/$13M and a mutual option the next year? If they signed Skubal and Holmes as their top 2, would Boyd as a 3rd be that bad? For 1 or 2 years? Am I way off here, or will Boyd and Peterson get close to the same annual salary? 

Pederson at three years is a "hell no" from me.

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Pederson at three years is a "hell no" from me.

What do you think he will get? Who would you want as that 3rd FA signed pitcher in the $10M-$15M range? It seems a lot of guys like the idea of Peterson back. Won’t he get 3 years? I could be way off. 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Rcal10 said:

What do you think he will get? Who would you want as that 3rd FA signed pitcher in the $10M-$15M range? It seems a lot of guys like the idea of Peterson back. Won’t he get 3 years? I could be way off. 

I think Peterson is primed for a 1+1 deal where the "+1" is really just a mutual option/buyout. We can look at his time with the Cubs all we want, but his overall numbers still look like horsefeathers in many spots; 4.79 ERA, 4.75 xERA, 20.7 K%, 9.8 BB%. Teams will use this against him and if I were David I'm not entering the market looking for multiple years with that. Especially in a fairly deep SP market of "pretty good, but not amazing" arms. 

Instead, I'm looking for a team who has a killer infield defense this market and then trying to parlay that into multiple years next year. And when I look at the Cubs, that's a perfect storm. 

I think what would amount to 1/$13m with a $2m buyout next offseason (so really $15m in total) feels like a good landing spot. 

[Nolo]

7 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

What do you think he will get? Who would you want as that 3rd FA signed pitcher in the $10M-$15M range? It seems a lot of guys like the idea of Peterson back. Won’t he get 3 years? I could be way off. 

1 yr/12.5M with mutual option or buyout or something would be ideal, but I could be way off as well.

Not sure if we will get three starters in free agency. Hopefully two solid starters. Might have to get creative in a trade. Names I've heard thrown around Joe Ryan, Taj Bradley, Reid Detmers, etc. I don't want to circle back to "who do we trade for these guys?" ... I'm not sure at this point.

Edited 4 hours ago by Nolo