Cubs Pre-Offseason Mega Thread

[Bertz]

15 hours ago, Nolo said:

Interesting. I still think Shota and Boyd need to go, and I think Michael King is going to stay in San Diego. The preference out of this group is Peralta for the Cubs rotation.

Peralta, Steele, Holmes, Peterson, Cabrera isn’t bad 

Honestly I think that rotation is probably quite good!  I'm sure people would complain about the lack of a fire breathing ace but I suspect that'd be a top 10 rotation.

My point so much as I had one is that Peralta and King aren't performing appreciably better than the guys we're letting walk.  And for Peralta specifically despite the sparkling ERA the Rays haven't fixed a damn thing.

This SP market is really deep, which is great news for a team that needs to add 3 SPs.  On the flipside the top tier after Skubal is really weak.  Decent chance Trevor Rogers is the only other SP to get a $100M+ deal.

So I totally understand wanting to take a swing on a Peralta or a King turning the clock back to 2024.  I'm just wary that after these playoffs they're going to be priced as if that work has already been all or at least mostly accomplished rather than the buy low guys they are in reality.

[mul21]

10 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Honestly I think that rotation is probably quite good!  I'm sure people would complain about the lack of a fire breathing ace but I suspect that'd be a top 10 rotation.

My point so much as I had one is that Peralta and King aren't performing appreciably better than the guys we're letting walk.  And for Peralta specifically despite the sparkling ERA the Rays haven't fixed a damn thing.

This SP market is really deep, which is great news for a team that needs to add 3 SPs.  On the flipside the top tier after Skubal is really weak.  Decent chance Trevor Rogers is the only other SP to get a $100M+ deal.

So I totally understand wanting to take a swing on a Peralta or a King turning the clock back to 2024.  I'm just wary that after these playoffs they're going to be priced as if that work has already been all or at least mostly accomplished rather than the buy low guys they are in reality.

I know you've looked at the underlying stuff with Peralta.  Was it just less walks and better luck doing the heavy lifting?

[Jason Ross]

31 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

On a very hypothetical basis, given that the next time the Cubs successfully rehabilitate a pitcher coming off a serious injury in a timely manner will be the first time I can remember.....what kind of value does Horton have?

Like, I'm aware this would be 'selling low'. but this is also an offense built to win in 2027, and there are at least a few teams out there that aren't. 

This feels like a super narrow landing strip to make happen. You'd need a team who has essentially punted 2027 this winter (as anything Horton gives you is going to be extra next year) and has a player that is controlled enough that the Cubs are willing to trade, easily, the best chance at a TORP in the entire organization (or for the organization to be so dissuaded by Horton's TJS that they just try to pull the rug on him before anyone else notices). And that this said controlled player is either already a good SP or a good COF. 

I'd hesitate to say "impossible" but this feels near it. Just don't think you'll find the perfect storm. 

[Rcal10]

11 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Honestly I think that rotation is probably quite good!  I'm sure people would complain about the lack of a fire breathing ace but I suspect that'd be a top 10 rotation.

My point so much as I had one is that Peralta and King aren't performing appreciably better than the guys we're letting walk.  And for Peralta specifically despite the sparkling ERA the Rays haven't fixed a damn thing.

This SP market is really deep, which is great news for a team that needs to add 3 SPs.  On the flipside the top tier after Skubal is really weak.  Decent chance Trevor Rogers is the only other SP to get a $100M+ deal.

So I totally understand wanting to take a swing on a Peralta or a King turning the clock back to 2024.  I'm just wary that after these playoffs they're going to be priced as if that work has already been all or at least mostly accomplished rather than the buy low guys they are in reality.

Makes sense. But the bottom line is unless the Cubs get Skubal, whoever they do get for a front of the rotation starter via FA they will be banking on them turning back the clock to 2024. Or they will sign Rogers(and lose two draft picks) or Taima. I just don’t see a sure fire swing at a front end starter in this class, except for Skubal. It is a very solid group as a whole and they can come away with 3 starters, but maybe none with a front of the rotation past or potential. Would something like Holmes, Peterson and Gray be considered a successful off season? 🤷

[Jason Ross]

9 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Makes sense. But the bottom line is unless the Cubs get Skubal, whoever they do get for a front of the rotation starter via FA they will be banking on them turning back the clock to 2024. Or they will sign Rogers(and lose two draft picks) or Taima. I just don’t see a sure fire swing at a front end starter in this class, except for Skubal. It is a very solid group as a whole and they can come away with 3 starters, but maybe none with a front of the rotation past or potential. Would something like Holmes, Peterson and Gray be considered a successful off season? 🤷

I think it depends on what else happens. Like, I don't think the 2027 rotation is any better than the 2026 rotation left off at that point. You're still losing Shota and Boyd and you're only going from Gausman to Gray. And I think it's a pretty ho-hum "fine" rotation. Those three is a good middle-rotation, for example. Then you have a combination of "what if's" in Steele, Cabrera and Brown; all of whom might have the oompf to lead that rotation but none of whom are guarantees. You can find a very good reason to think any of those three are not going to be helpful in 2027. I'd hesitate to count on any of them to be good, with the understanding they all could be.

But if the rotation isn't any better than the Guasman/Holmes/Pederson/Shota/Boyd rotation we just had then the offense has to be just as good. And I'd really wonder how they handle Happ and Suzuki's loss in that situation because that's a real downgrade.

[Bertz]

12 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I know you've looked at the underlying stuff with Peralta.  Was it just less walks and better luck doing the heavy lifting?

Fewer dongs, and that's despite more barrels so clearly luck rather than skill.  He also got much better sequencing luck.  He did start throwing harder, so maybe over a longer time horizon that would translate into things that matter like whiffs or groundballs, but he actually pitched a little worse for the Rays than the Mets IMO.

It's honestly not that different than David Peterson for us.  Peterson pitched a little bit better for us than the Mets, but got way better sequencing luck and of course enjoyed our insane defense.

[Bertz]

14 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Makes sense. But the bottom line is unless the Cubs get Skubal, whoever they do get for a front of the rotation starter via FA they will be banking on them turning back the clock to 2024. Or they will sign Rogers(and lose two draft picks) or Taima. I just don’t see a sure fire swing at a front end starter in this class, except for Skubal. It is a very solid group as a whole and they can come away with 3 starters, but maybe none with a front of the rotation past or potential. Would something like Holmes, Peterson and Gray be considered a successful off season? 🤷

I think Gausman, Gray, and Holmes, are still really good pitchers.  They're old enough you worry about them falling off the table and don't want to give them a ton of years, but they're really good right now.  And personally I'd rather bet on them staying good than someone like King going back to being good, especially since the latter will probably cost more money.

It sucks that there's not a Max Fried or Dylan Cease in this market, but I'm generally comfortable with depth over top end talent on the pitching staff.  Like my Plan A at the moment would be Taira, Gausman, and Tyler Mahle.  And eyeballing Roster Resource there are about 12 guys on the market who, assuming the price was reasonable, I'd be happy to give a rotation spot to.  Plus another half dozen guys like Aaron Civale I'd be happy to give a swing man job to.

[mul21]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

I think Gausman, Gray, and Holmes, are still really good pitchers.  They're old enough you worry about them falling off the table and don't want to give them a ton of years, but they're really good right now.  And personally I'd rather bet on them staying good than someone like King going back to being good, especially since the latter will probably cost more money.

It sucks that there's not a Max Fried or Dylan Cease in this market, but I'm generally comfortable with depth over top end talent on the pitching staff.  Like my Plan A at the moment would be Taira, Gausman, and Tyler Mahle.  And eyeballing Roster Resource there are about 12 guys on the market who, assuming the price was reasonable, I'd be happy to give a rotation spot to.  Plus another half dozen guys like Aaron Civale I'd be happy to give a swing man job to.

I'm concerned about how effective Gausman will be going forward.  It felt like he was good every other start with the Cubs and wasn't great before coming over either.  I'd be more inclined to go with Holmes over him.

[Bertz]

36 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I'm concerned about how effective Gausman will be going forward.  It felt like he was good every other start with the Cubs and wasn't great before coming over either.  I'd be more inclined to go with Holmes over him.

I'm not especially worried.  He gave up a ton of dongs but his barrel rate was exactly league average at 7.7%.  It's a combo of small sample noise and Wrigley playing so hitter friendly in '26.

He'll be 36 next year so he might turn bad, but *right now* he's really good still.